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Posted
14 hours ago, Elerond said:

Tariffs has not had yet effect long enough that they would show anywhere but in  imf's prediction data which draws trend that shows that China will pass EU again in 2026.

And EU would have survived economically full trade war with USA, now long term it means that EU will slowly lose its US trade.

Yes and China passed the EU in 2022 and it was predicted to become the strongest economy in the world by 2030 if you read links like this 

https://trt.global/world/article/12768680

And that was influenced  because the UK had left the EU and its GDP wasnt counted 

Now in 2025 the EU has passed China again, the point being economic predictions are often wrong

But you right, this doesn't include US tariff impact and we will see that more accurately reflected at the end of the last quarter

And this will apply to all countries that include China. But we need time to see the impact of US tariffs on countries that export to the US 

 

 

 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

Posted
3 hours ago, Lexx said:

Putting it into politics thread, because Project 2025 brainrot again. https://www.thegamer.com/steams-adult-content-ban-has-been-plotted-for-a-year/

That is a  problem, any suggestion to ban adult movies or  adult content must be rejected at all costs

I would even consider protesting if that happened in South Africa 

Im an adult, no one must dictate to me what I can or cant watch or what game I decide to play

As long as its legal of course and not things like paedophile content 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

Posted

Reminder: the only GDP that really matters is the Purchase Price Parity variety. And really, GDP (PPP) per capita since that tells you how well the people it's relevant to are actually doing- or at least, is the best general and handy measurement of it there is. China is 78th, there.

GDP (nominal) is an awful measurement and it's use is responsible for a lot of extremely bad economic management.

Posted
38 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Reminder: the only GDP that really matters is the Purchase Price Parity variety. And really, GDP (PPP) per capita since that tells you how well the people it's relevant to are actually doing- or at least, is the best general and handy measurement of it there is. China is 78th, there.

GDP (nominal) is an awful measurement and it's use is responsible for a lot of extremely bad economic management.

Even GDP (PPP) per capita isn't the greatest metric, as it doesn't show how capital has been divided in the country. Ireland is good example where GDP (PPP) per capita does not give accurate picture how much average Irish person has money, because they have inflated GDP because they have so many mega corporates flowing money through Ireland, but most of the Irish don't benefit from that money, because corporate taxes there are so low and corporations don't really invest in Ireland.

Posted

The country looks like an economic miracle, and to a large extent that is what is important*. Mostly because economics is a spectacularly non rigorous field of study/ expertise with more similarities to religion than science.

Same reason house price inflation was massively encouraged here- it made the economics look good though it was utterly unproductive and a very real drain on the practical economy because it sucked up all the investment. Worse, the houses were made from over priced materials and didn't fill the actual need (ie were built to appeal to appeal specifically to 'investors'). Why start a business when you could buy a house at 5-10% return y/y + rental with the knowledge that the government would prop you up? When house prices started to stabilise because no one could afford them the government started importing massive numbers of people to create artificial demand to keep the bubble inflated. Because economists mostly look at GDP nominal the fact that GDP per capita was actually dropping got ignored and then people wondered why everyone felt poor.

Also why politicians and economists try and tell us that $10 butter in a country which makes 20x the amount of butter it needs is great, and everyone should be happy about it- it makes the country look like it's doing well economically. It'd be true if we had 1-2 million people and a quarter of them were involved in selling unimproved cow juice products like in the 50s and 60s, but we don't. Doesn't do much to dispel the old saying that there's one type of person who believes in infinite expansion in a closed system: economists, politicians and idiots.

*eg you can borrow a lot more money at better rates because typically lenders look at GDP nominal as to whether you can pay the money back. Much like religion a great deal of economics is getting people to believe in stuff.

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