Ukraine Conflict - In the grim darkness of the near future, there is only war!

[Mamoulian War]

On 6/4/2025 at 10:59 PM, Malcador said:

I saw this, but the source was Sushko, who is a bull**** merchant really, but not sure if others.  Granted, they've been hitting Ukraine with missiles daily, not sure it being Operation Zeus Lightning or whatever matters. 

Yesterday, this was also confirmed by Head of Estonian intelligence Center, Colonel Ants Kiviselg.

[Sarex]

 

[Zoraptor]

Does anyone like a draft officer except politicians? Even volunteers hate them for having a safe (well, mostly) cushy job and for the bribery. Also tend to disproportionately be mirrored Jain symbol/ pagan tattoo aficionados.

Kind of funny seeing Ukraine say they expect Russia to bomb TCC offices more after doing so a couple of days ago got such a positive response among Ukrainians.

Edited July 4 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8d6yrd798no

The US is going to renew sending weapons to Ukraine, Trumps normal flip-flopping on issues is demonstrated again  

" Donald Trump has said the US will send more weapons to Ukraine after an announcement last week that Washington would halt some shipments of critical arms to Kyiv.

During a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said he was "not happy" with Russia's Vladimir Putin and that Ukraine was "getting hit very hard".

Trump also indicated the US would send primarily "defensive weapons" to help Ukraine's war effort. " 

 

 

[kanisatha]

5 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8d6yrd798no

The US is going to renew sending weapons to Ukraine, Trumps normal flip-flopping on issues is demonstrated again  

" Donald Trump has said the US will send more weapons to Ukraine after an announcement last week that Washington would halt some shipments of critical arms to Kyiv.

During a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said he was "not happy" with Russia's Vladimir Putin and that Ukraine was "getting hit very hard".

Trump also indicated the US would send primarily "defensive weapons" to help Ukraine's war effort. " 

Not a flip-flop. The Defense Dept made that decision based on a routine review without the knowledge or directive of the president.

[BruceVC]

7 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Not a flip-flop. The Defense Dept made that decision based on a routine review without the knowledge or directive of the president.

Interesting, so it was DOD who initially  said they weren't  sending  weapons to Ukraine due to stock concerns and not Trump? 

[Malcador]

And yet that drunk Hegseth still keeps his job.

[kanisatha]

22 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Interesting, so it was DOD who initially  said they weren't  sending  weapons to Ukraine due to stock concerns and not Trump? 

Yes, the announcement came out of the DoD in a routine memo about US military aid transfers to any and all countries. The news media latched on to it as some sort of policy change coming out of the White House, which it wasn't.

Edited July 9 by kanisatha

[rjshae]

On 7/8/2025 at 1:52 AM, BruceVC said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8d6yrd798no

The US is going to renew sending weapons to Ukraine, Trumps normal flip-flopping on issues is demonstrated again  

" Donald Trump has said the US will send more weapons to Ukraine after an announcement last week that Washington would halt some shipments of critical arms to Kyiv.

During a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said he was "not happy" with Russia's Vladimir Putin and that Ukraine was "getting hit very hard".

Trump also indicated the US would send primarily "defensive weapons" to help Ukraine's war effort. " 

Since DJT gave up his negotiating leverage early on, I suspect he's just trying to remain relevant to the "peace" process. I very much doubt it's a long-term commitment; he's too much of a flip-flopper. He still hasn't restored the intel sharing with Ukraine, which is a bit of a tell.

[pmp10]

Before the upcoming Trump/Putin meeting various rumors are flying as to potential cease-fire terms.
Unsurprisingly permanent peace is not likely, but diplomatically there are first signs of optimism in a long time. 

We will soon see if this is serious or only a elaborate blame-game. 

[Zoraptor]

Not sure there's that much cause for genuine optimism. It's more that, well, both sides want to sound more optimistic and more conciliatory for Trump so he doesn't throw a tantrum. There's more chance of a deal now than there was when Zelensky was insisting on unrealistic scenarios like Russia evacuating Ukraine wholesale or going back to status quo ante 2022 as he was until recently, and shows some acceptance of the situation on the ground and geopolitically with Trump, but the list of differences between the sides is still an extremely long one with multiple issues that seem insurmountable. The best that seems likely, and it isn't very likely IMO, is one of those patented Trump hand waving 'victory' agreements where there's basically no detail at all and the whole thing is aspirational.

(Since Trump mentioned it, one example would be territory swaps. What territory is Ukraine going to swap? Even their most optimistic mapping supporters have them holding a few tens of square km of Russian territory. Hard to see Z getting much for that. Politically it's doubtful he can even if he were personally willing to; ordering troops to up stick and leave without a fight is... difficult at the best of times, let alone when you've got a hard core of capital N Nationalists to deal with. Similarly, is Russia going to give up, say, their territory in Zaporizhie oblast for territory in Donetsk they could take anyway? Is Russia going to accept a ceasefire during which the west can rearm Ukraine? Seems unlikely, given the result of that happening during Minsk II. And there's plenty more.)

Edited 22 hours ago by Zoraptor

[Malcador]

Trump meeting Putin in Alaska. Probably will sell it to Putin.

[BruceVC]

5 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Not sure there's that much cause for genuine optimism. It's more that, well, both sides want to sound more optimistic and more conciliatory for Trump so he doesn't throw a tantrum. There's more chance of a deal now than there was when Zelensky was insisting on unrealistic scenarios like Russia evacuating Ukraine wholesale or going back to status quo ante 2022 as he was until recently, and shows some acceptance of the situation on the ground and geopolitically with Trump, but the list of differences between the sides is still an extremely long one with multiple issues that seem insurmountable. The best that seems likely, and it isn't very likely IMO, is one of those patented Trump hand waving 'victory' agreements where there's basically no detail at all and the whole thing is aspirational.

(Since Trump mentioned it, one example would be territory swaps. What territory is Ukraine going to swap? Even their most optimistic mapping supporters have them holding a few tens of square km of Russian territory. Hard to see Z getting much for that. Politically it's doubtful he can even if he were personally willing to; ordering troops to up stick and leave without a fight is... difficult at the best of times, let alone when you've got a hard core of capital N Nationalists to deal with. Similarly, is Russia going to give up, say, their territory in Zaporizhie oblast for territory in Donetsk they could take anyway? Is Russia going to accept a ceasefire during which the west can rearm Ukraine? Seems unlikely, given the result of that happening during Minsk II. And there's plenty more.)

I dont think a peace deal is that complicated and the general terms have been discussed many times 

The war ends on current gains, Russia gets to keep Donbas and Crimea and Ukraine keeps 80% of its country 

Ukraine wont join NATO but can join the EU and Ukraine gets security guarantees that Russia wont invade again 

Russia cant be trusted but if they agree to not invade after this agreement I cant imagine another invasion  because Putin will have his geographical  "win " in the Donbas region 

[rjshae]

8 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Ukraine wont join NATO but can join the EU and Ukraine gets security guarantees that Russia wont invade again 

Russia cant be trusted but if they agree to not invade after this agreement I cant imagine another invasion  because Putin will have his geographical  "win " in the Donbas region 

I'm sure the agreement will be upheld by Russia as they did the Budapest Memorandum. I.e. not. Sorry, but trusting in Putin to be satisfied by his conquests is optimistic thinking on your part. More likely he'll need a peace interlude for his military to upgrade.

[Zoraptor]

Presumably, any 'security guarantees' now would be more robust than the 'security assurances' given then.

But, one of the main reasons there's unlikely to be an agreement is because a truce/ peace interlude will massively favour Ukraine. Their current replacements in pretty much every category are below required/ desired level. That's thirty days of stockpiling artillery rounds, drones, patriot/ irisT etc interceptors and thirty days of digging and improving defences; plus thirty days of training for new recruits and thirty days of getting those new recruits. Hence Ukraine's insistence on an unconditional ceasefire. If their artillery supplies are, say, 50% what they want then a 30 day pause gives them 15 full days supply, and they can get it to the front without fear of interdiction.

Budapest memorandum was flagrantly violated by everyone. Can't really say that the US and UK isn't interfering in Belarus' internal politics or using economic coercion on it, for example, and didn't do the same for Ukraine when it had leaders they didn't like. Though of course that's a special and unique case since it's us doing it of helping the Ukrainian/Belarussian people, and thus not an abrogation...

For that matter Minsk I/II was violated by both parties as well.