Ukraine Conflict - In the grim darkness of the near future, there is only war!

[kanisatha]

19 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Forced? 

Doesn't seem like Zelensky was marched in at gunpoint. He could have said no to the press conference- it would hardly have turned out worse. He could have grinned and borne it instead of reacting. He could have decided to have someone else there as well, or to use translators to slow things down, or to try and wind things up. 

Once again, Zelensky said that was going to be his approach beforehand, and Trump reacted exactly as you'd expect him to. Can anyone actually say that they thought a "very direct" approach to Donald Trump was a good idea?

They'd done the hard work by making the minerals agreement utterly nebulous, he only had to make it through the signing

It's all very well talking about ambushes and humiliation and implying that Zelensky was brave and stuck to his guns or whatever but that ignores that Ukraine needs the US while the US does not need Ukraine. Doesn't matter if that is an unpalatable fact, it is a fact.

It feels very strange that I'm finding myself in complete agreement here with this post of yours.

[Agiel]

Since Trump and his ilk claim to have such admiration for those Nordics maybe he should ask Norwegian men about the <<Plakaten på veggen>> and what they think should be done when they have "no cards to play" (relevant section is "8. Grunnsetninger for forsvarskampen"):

Edited Sunday at 06:47 PM by Agiel

[Lexx]

Pretty sure people who can read that image are in the minority here.  

[Malcador]

Better not show Trump Section 13 there, to be honest.

As per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directives_for_military_officers_and_military_commanders_in_the_event_of_an_armed_attack_on_Norway#The_directive

Fifth column:

1. The commanding officer must assume a fifth column will be active before and during an armed attack.
2. The commanding officer is responsible to protect his forces against fifth columnists as best he can.
3. The commanding officer is responsible to protect the mobilization process against fifth columnists as best he can.
4. The commanding officer shall in war and peace cooperate with the police and other civilian authorities in regards of the tasks mentioned under a to c.[

[BruceVC]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70wnjvj1x0o 

The EU, UK and other countries will now be committed to ending the war in Ukraine and they will present the plan to the US which still needs to be involved in long-term peace because it has more influence over Russia

The mineral deal can still happen but its best that these  types of discussions dont happen directly between Zelensky and Trump, let the UK or France facilitate these US negotiations on behalf of Ukraine

Both Macron and Starmar understand how to engage with Trump

[pmp10]

10 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70wnjvj1x0o 

Quote

Earlier this week, the PM announced he would cut the foreign aid budget to raise defence funding from 2.3% to 2.5% of national income by 2027, which led to the resignation of his International Development Minister Anneliese Dodds.

I wonder if that's the level commitment EU has in mind.
Somehow I doubt Putin will lose sleep over it. 

[Zoraptor]

First ten minutes of our tv news bulletin was talking about that 'plan'. Not going to escape the accusations that everything done is about making people feel good about themselves any time soon. Indeed, it seemed to be the result of one of those self help books where you're told to constantly talk about the best case scenario as if talking about it will make it happen. Not even really the concept of a plan- hence Starmer and Macron not even agreeing over a one month partial truce being part of it is telling.

They haven't even really got Zelensky on side- "long long way from peace", needing 200k+ peacekeepers etc. OK, the guy makes Trump look like a conservative- and consistent- negotiator since he's also said peace is needed as soon as possible.

Even the wildly biased are pouring cold water on it- eg Frank Gardiner's BBC article. Three questions about the whether the 'peace plan' could work and the answer to all three is 'no'.

[Elerond]

3 hours ago, pmp10 said:

I wonder if that's the level commitment EU has in mind.
Somehow I doubt Putin will lose sleep over it. 

If EU countries increase defense spending by 1% of EU's GDP it is same sum if Russia increase their defense spending by 10% of Russia's GDP

So if Russia uses 200 billion dollars in their military, it is 10% of their GDP, if EU uses same 200 billion dollars, it is 1% of their GDP

[Gorgon]

Trump really screwed the American arms industry long term though. Europe will want to build their own rather than be dependent on American hardware and parts, now that free availability is not guaranteed anymore, we will need to match the Russians in production capacity. Europe will wind up competing with the US on the international arms market, rather than being mostly customers.

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/white-house-seeks-plan-possible-russia-sanctions-relief-sources-say-2025-03-03/

Remarkable feat if they do get the relief.

[majestic]

53 minutes ago, Gorgon said:

Trump really screwed the American arms industry long term though. Europe will want to build their own rather than be dependent on American hardware and parts, now that free availability is not guaranteed anymore, we will need to match the Russians in production capacity. Europe will wind up competing with the US on the international arms market, rather than being mostly customers.

You put too much stock in our ability to remove our collective heads from our asses, really.

But yeah, would be nice to see.

Edited Monday at 10:10 PM by majestic

[Gorgon]

1 hour ago, majestic said:

You put too much stock in our ability to remove our collective heads from our asses, really.

But yeah, would be nice to see.

There is a lot of money in it and there is a lot of rebuilding to do. I would say it's more likely than not now that the negative connotations of having an arms industry are set aside by necessity.  We have enough know how for a European defense consortium to be a serious player, especially one including Ukraine.

[Zoraptor]

Europe hasn't been able to spin up production of something as simple as artillery shells after three years, and that's something which is basically the same as it was 150 years ago. As always it's very easy to talk about production, far more difficult to actually do it.

The great irony is that the war has shown you don't have to spend vast amounts. The most effective weapon in the entire war and by far the most cost effective is a cheap drone with a cheap warhead at maybe, maybe, 1k per use. Yet you know most of the money will go to kewl toys like €30mn Leo2s, planes and further investment in precision weapons that aren't very precise when the opposition has decent jamming capability.

2 hours ago, Elerond said:

If EU countries increase defense spending by 1% of EU's GDP it is same sum if Russia increase their defense spending by 10% of Russia's GDP

So if Russia uses 200 billion dollars in their military, it is 10% of their GDP, if EU uses same 200 billion dollars, it is 1% of their GDP

You need to use GDP PPP, not GDP raw (ie take into account discrepancies in how much stuff costs to buy country to country, not just use absolute monetary values). With purchase price parity the EU economy (28tr) is almost exactly 4 times Russia's (at 7tr), not 10 times.

[Zoraptor]

US pauses military aid to Ukraine.

(not 100% confirmed at this point but enough for reuters to run it)

[Malcador]

Any excuse to reference Red Alert. 

https://archive.ph/gmJ7i

"The US is pausing all current military aid to Ukraine until Trump determines the country’s leaders demonstrate a good-faith commitment to peace, according to a senior Defense Department official, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations.

The official said all US military equipment not currently in Ukraine would be paused, including weapons in transit on aircraft and ships or waiting in transit areas in Poland. Trump ordered Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to execute the pause, the person said."

Had thought they'd at least let stuff getting delivered get through. I guess this might not be too impactful a cut off, at least for a couple weeks.

 

 

Edited Tuesday at 02:03 AM by Malcador

[Lexx]

I can see it already: Soon the US will start supporting the Ukraine war again... on the side of Russia. Honestly, it's just a matter of time now. Trump is so 110% a Russian asset, it's impossible to not believe that anymore. Can't believe Americans are just sitting around, doing nothing.

Isn't this what you have all your guns for? Hot take: The more this stuff continues, the more I feel you only have guns to shoot school children.

/Edit: There's photos of Trump people delivery secret documents to Mar-a-Lago again.  

Edited Tuesday at 07:36 AM by Lexx

[BruceVC]

Trump\USA  not being seen as consistent or trusted partner of the EU anymore  could have some really positive outcomes like the EU ensuring its not dependant on the US for military defense or effectiveness 

Its definitely good news if the EU takes more or complete responsibility for it own defense and military effectiveness

Its just better for the EU

Trump will be gone in 4 years and the next US president could have a completely different view on the EU relationship like we have seen in the past

But either way you dont want the EU\UK to be dependant on the US for something like defense. And I would like to see Germany rearm properly, WW2 was a long time ago and we dont have to worry about Germany trying to conquer other countries

The EU needs to do more to establish its own significance and having a strong military is part of that

 

 

[Gfted1]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

And I would like to see Germany rearm properly, WW2 was a long time ago and we dont have to worry about Germany trying to conquer other countries

*stares suspiciously*

But for real, that made me laugh.

[BruceVC]

28 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

*stares suspiciously*

But for real, that made me laugh.

 There seems to be a European concern or sentiment  that Germany must be limited in how much money it can spend on its military but Germany is also the strongest economy in the EU

If Europeans are serious about the EU having its own effective military that is not dependant on the US then Germany mustnt be restrained 

Its not  like we going to see WW1&2 again where Germany is the enemy,  the EU is what matters now around its sustainability and its influence and Germany is a committed member of the EU

@Lexx what do you think?

https://ip-quarterly.com/en/why-germany-can-and-should-increase-defense-spending

Edited Tuesday at 04:19 PM by BruceVC

[Malcador]

Almost coming to heel.

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Almost coming to heel.

Isn't that just additional insult towards Trump and USA, as he says things like signing mineral and security deal

• Russia needing to release prisoners.
• Asking long range missile ban
• Russia needs to stop their blockade on Black Sea
• Stopping bombing energy and other civilian infrastructure

All things that were last Friday too much to ask and preventing possible peace negotiations.

It looks more like that Zelenskyy still don't understand that he does not have any cards left and only way he can have cards is to sign announcement of surrender peace deal that the Trump gives him.

[HoonDing]

^^^ Ironic Gina Carano was in Red Alert 3

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ukraine-prepare-sign-minerals-deal-tuesday-sources-say-2025-03-04/

"President Donald Trump has told his advisers that he wants to announce the agreement in his address to Congress Tuesday evening, three of the sources said, cautioning that the deal had yet to be signed and the situation could change.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment."

Better sign it, he'll be super pissed if he doesn't have something for his speech tonight.

Or not ?

 

Edited yesterday at 01:02 AM by Malcador

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ukraine-prepare-sign-minerals-deal-tuesday-sources-say-2025-03-04/

"President Donald Trump has told his advisers that he wants to announce the agreement in his address to Congress Tuesday evening, three of the sources said, cautioning that the deal had yet to be signed and the situation could change.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment."

Better sign it, he'll be super pissed if he doesn't have something for his speech tonight.

Or not ?

 

When it comes to Trumps presidency the most significant voice is always what Trump thinks and says

I have realized it doesnt matter what his cabinet says on most issues because Trump can change his mind literally the next day and then that becomes the official view or policy 

But that doesnt apply to Trumps views on things like the Gaza  Riviera suggestion  which was him just throwing a silly idea out

So you just need to learn to separate things that Trump can realistically implement and things what  he  is not serious about 

[Malcador]

https://www.axios.com/2025/03/05/us-ukraine-weapons-intelligence-sharing-pause-russia-talks

Certainly squeezing Ukraine hard