Gaza - conflict, war, land, water rights, bad colonional legacies...

[Malcador]

That video was an awkward production, the IDF guy looked unaccustomed to being in his kit (and wielding a rifle still for some reason). 

[Zoraptor]

I was amazed by how staged the whole thing appeared. OK, so it's obviously going to be staged in some respects, but the idea is not to make everything look staged since that is counter productive and ends up making it look fake.

(Daniel Hagari is a rear admiral so a senior sailor, not a soldier. Very likely hasn't seen an actual boat either in a while either, any way a certain amount of discomfort is to be expected. But even in the more controlled briefing setting he's got more than a little bit of Bethesda NPC / the AI newsreader from the new Deus Exs about him and I always semi expect him to start talking about how Rucker Hamas has weaponised mudcrabs)

 

[Malcador]

Oh ok, I thought he was some press officer or rear echelon guy, just thought they could have easily tapped some NCO and have him do it, even if he'll sound unpolished that'd add authenticity to the presentation.  

For what it's worth - https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/world/hamas-hospitals-gaza-israel.html

"Mr. Kirby declined to provide details about the U.S. intelligence, but he made clear that it goes beyond the information collected by the Israeli intelligence service. “It comes from a variety of intelligence methods — of our own, of our own,” he said, adding that the classification of the intelligence had been downgraded so that it could be shared publicly."

Hm..

Edited November 14, 2023 by Malcador

[Zoraptor]

Hagari supposedly runs a lot of social media manipulation type stuff as his normal day job which would make him essentially both a press officer and rear echelon guy. He's definitely an odd choice to front the camera and some of his (if they are his and not from higher up; he's pretty senior though) decisions have been decidedly sloppy.

[BruceVC]

7 hours ago, Malcador said:

Oh ok, I thought he was some press officer or rear echelon guy, just thought they could have easily tapped some NCO and have him do it, even if he'll sound unpolished that'd add authenticity to the presentation.  

For what it's worth - https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/world/hamas-hospitals-gaza-israel.html

"Mr. Kirby declined to provide details about the U.S. intelligence, but he made clear that it goes beyond the information collected by the Israeli intelligence service. “It comes from a variety of intelligence methods — of our own, of our own,” he said, adding that the classification of the intelligence had been downgraded so that it could be shared publicly."

Hm..

Hamas does use hospitals  and other civilian structures as  operating bases. And this is denied  or  ignored by   many people  so thats  the purpose  of this type of  article   

Israel  will   generally  always lose  the PR war  or at least the   war of Internet  "outrage " 

But they will  win the main war and Hamas  will no longer be able to operate in Gaza  The real questions are  going to be " who will manage Gaza once Hamas is gone " and " who is  going rebuild Gaza " 

 

 

[Malcador]

1 minute ago, BruceVC said:

Hamas does use hospitals  and other civilian structures as  operating bases. And this is denied  or  ignored by   many people  so thats  the purpose  of this type of  article   

Israel  will   generally  always lose  the PR war  or at least the   war of Internet  "outrage " 

But they will  win the main war and Hamas  will no longer be able to operate in Gaza  The real questions are  going to be " who will manage Gaza once Hamas is gone " and " who is  going rebuild Gaza " 

 

 

Another question is who will be living there as well.

[BruceVC]

1 minute ago, Malcador said:

Another question is who will be living there as well.

Well  its  assumed that Palestinians will return to northern Gaza once the war  is over  but not until its  rebuilt. There are several things that the  Israelis haven't  thought about  or didnt care about   . I mentioned this  before  but they should have used  a bombing campaign only  in the beginning and then used  ground troops  only.  This would  have vastly reduced civilian deaths   and damage to infrastructure.  I realize  they want to  avoid unnecessary IDF  deaths but   in  this type of urban warfare  you need  to consider the  consequence of  targeting Hamas  when they embedded  within civilians

Because even though the global PR  outcomes dont necessarily change military decisions  in wars, look at  Russia in Ukraine,  it does  matter in this war because  you seeing both anti-semitic and Islamophobia on the increase in many countries. And most  of  us dont want to  be  dragged into that because  of a war in the ME  where leadership on both sides are  intransigent and refuse to compromise  

[xzar_monty]

5 hours ago, BruceVC said:

But they will  win the main war and Hamas  will no longer be able to operate in Gaza  The real questions are  going to be " who will manage Gaza once Hamas is gone " and " who is  going rebuild Gaza "

Israel's attempt to wipe out Hamas will more than likely just breed and create room for more radicalization, so I'm not sure at all where your rather naive-looking certainty is coming from. The problem itself doesn't go away if Hamas is done for and simply replaced by Hamas II or even The Revenge of the Empire of the Son of Hamas Strikes Back Again.

As for the questions you pose, the first looks hopelessly premature and the second is, indeed, quite real, but not really pertinent at this point. We can almost rest assured that Israel will have no interest in any kind of rebuilding project concerning people they regard as expendable and worth murdering just like that.

We are, again, at the process of reaping the results of problems that were created at the same time that Israel itself was created. Israel's recent policy has been utterly hopeless and downright terrible, from any kind of humanist viewpoint, and it's such a shame for all concerned that Israel is a) quite effective and b) blatantly murderous at the same time, unlike, say, Russia. (Russia obviously has other flaws that Israel doesn't, but that's another question altogether.)

[uuuhhii]

5 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

where your rather naive-looking certainty is coming from.

pretty sure it is all sugarcoated dribble

 

but since this is the Internet there is always a chance people actually believe what they are saying

[BruceVC]

6 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Israel's attempt to wipe out Hamas will more than likely just breed and create room for more radicalization, so I'm not sure at all where your rather naive-looking certainty is coming from. The problem itself doesn't go away if Hamas is done for and simply replaced by Hamas II or even The Revenge of the Empire of the Son of Hamas Strikes Back Again.

 

No its not naive if you understand what the Israeli military objective is and we have discussed this many times  before  

We all know  you cant kill  an ideology,  I know that, you know that and the Israelis know that. But you can absolutely remove all  Hamas bases in Gaza   and destroy there   tunnel infrastructure especially in the north of Gaza. Then you ensure that  Hamas doesnt govern Gaza anymore so they cant plan another 7 October. They will  still exist in  other countries and the ideology will  exist but they   wont be on the border  of  Israel with resources . But it adds  a real geographical obstacle  to future 7 October attacks 

Its an effective  and obvious  strategy that can work and its no different to other examples where  Islamic extremist groups  like ISIS operating bases were   destroyed and that vastly reduces there operating capability.  So there is precedent for it  as well

But I  dont agree  with the heavy handed approach the Israelis are  following and using missiles  strikes that kill Hamas   and civilians. Thats why I have mentioned  they should be using ground troops  only at this  stage of the  offensive  

 

 

[BruceVC]

13 minutes ago, uuuhhii said:

pretty sure it is all sugarcoated dribble

 

but since this is the Internet there is always a chance people actually believe what they are saying

Rather ask me   to explain my view than making assumptions about what you think   I  mean  

[HoonDing]

"Targeted operation" inside hospital = shoot everything that moves and everything that doesn't move, then plant evidence in the basement

[xzar_monty]

19 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

No its not naive if you understand what the Israeli military objective is and we have discussed this many times  before

Actually, we have not discussed this even once before.

You do recognize that your "I dont agree" and "they should be using" sound just a tiny bit callous, don't you? The Israel army is bombing civilians, murdering children and creating wanton wholesale destruction at an astonishing rate while you're going "I don't agree with that in the workplace!" like a proper David Brent.

[uuuhhii]

if something smell like civility politics

 

throw it away

[BruceVC]

35 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Actually, we have not discussed this even once before.

You do recognize that your "I dont agree" and "they should be using" sound just a tiny bit callous, don't you? The Israel army is bombing civilians, murdering children and creating wanton wholesale destruction at an astonishing rate while you're going "I don't agree with that in the workplace!" like a proper David Brent.

"We "  was used as  general term because I have made several posts about what   the  stated Israeli military objective is and  they have publicly  mentioned it on many occasions. They  want to wipe out Hamas in Gaza and destroy there operating bases. I also assumed you have been following this conflict and the Israelis have  never said they want to end the Hamas ideology because  you can't   kill an ideology

 

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, HoonDing said:

"Targeted operation" inside hospital = shoot everything that moves and everything that doesn't move, then plant evidence in the basement

Well they didn't do that in Al Shifa at least. Although they brought incubators even though the hospital has been stating they need fuel for a while. 

Here's hoping the IDF walkthrough video is better this time

 

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

They  want to wipe out Hamas in Gaza and destroy there operating bases.

I would contend that that's fair after the Hamas strike. However, what they are doing is much more than that.

When he was directing the NKVD, Nikolai Yezhov famously said that "When you chop wood, chips fly" (though the saying was not his invention), which was intended as a justification. But you would have to be a particularly cold-hearted person to accept that. Yezhov, of course, fairly soon became one of the chips himself, which I'd again contend was fair -- but the millions of others were not.

[pmp10]

8 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Well  its  assumed that Palestinians will return to northern Gaza once the war  is over  but not until its  rebuilt.

That's far from given.
Israeli officials are testing the waters on unloading refugees to other countries.

Their record on allowing Palestinians to move back is not that great.

[BruceVC]

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/bbc-apologizes-over-israel-hamas-120525521.html

Here is an example of the  misreporting going around in this conflict but this  apology was towards Israel  

 

[BruceVC]

Just now, pmp10 said:

That's far from given.
Israeli officials are testing the waters on unloading refugees to other countries.

Their record on allowing Palestinians to move back is not that great.

Yes and  that's   a ridiculous  and unhelpful  suggestion from far-right Israeli politicians and no  one's going to take it  seriously.  You notice they suggest "the West  "must  take  them   in 

Israel definitely cant expect anyone to absorb 2  million Palestinians, who is going to take  that   economic and social  burden?  The only realistic solution to sustained peace is a  2 state solution

But leadership  on both sides isnt prepared to  compromise and there is a  lack of political will.   I  predict the  Palestinians will  stay  in Gaza but it   needs to be rebuilt 

 

 

[Malcador]

Was expecting some sort of vast underground complex. 

[Zoraptor]

They didn't actually expect to find much given the number of troops they sent in. Certainly no 'beating heart'.

Never know though, maybe Good Guy Israel siphoned that 300L of fuel they offered out of one of the Merkava tanks. It'd be about 3% of the fuel they drove in, in their tanks alone.

[pmp10]

7 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Yes and  that's   a ridiculous  and unhelpful  suggestion from far-right Israeli politicians and no  one's going to take it  seriously.  You notice they suggest "the West  "must  take  them   in 

Israel definitely cant expect anyone to absorb 2  million Palestinians, who is going to take  that   economic and social  burden?  The only realistic solution to sustained peace is a  2 state solution

But leadership  on both sides isnt prepared to  compromise and there is a  lack of political will.   I  predict the  Palestinians will  stay  in Gaza but it   needs to be rebuilt 

One of these politicians is actually on the Israeli left.
There is no telling what consensus emerges in Israel after the fighting is done.

But rumors are already flying that southern Gaza is next and may end up as little more than 50km² 'safe zone'.

[Gorth]

They just don't do genocide like they used to in the old days... Europeans used to be good at that. No rebellions or uprisings when there is nobody left to rebel or rise up. The world has grown soft...

Just kidding of course, but they are still all discussing fighting the symptoms of a problem instead of addressing the cause.

Edit: which would be something along the lines of too many people kicked out of their homes with nowhere to go but refugee camps and walled in ghettos and no discernible future. Refugee camps with people that have no home and no future will always be a breeding ground for violent agitators

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Gorth said:

They just don't do genocide like they used to in the old days... Europeans used to be good at that. No rebellions or uprisings when there is nobody left to rebel or rise up. The world has grown soft...

Just kidding of course, but they are still all discussing fighting the symptoms of a problem instead of addressing the cause.

Edit: which would be something along the lines of too many people kicked out of their homes with nowhere to go but refugee camps and walled in ghettos and no discernible future. Refugee camps with people that have no home and no future will always be a breeding ground for violent agitators

Gorthfuscious what's your view on a sustainable solution to this  decades   long  conflict? I am not sure if you have noticed   but generally most people  only get involved  or have an opinion when there is an active conflict  like what  happened on 7 October and  then the views are just about the responses that  both sides  make because we  are dealing with symptoms 

But what  should leadership  on both sides agree  to  in  the interests of peace? Lets say you were  in charge of  negotiations, what reasonable demands   would you  raise?

Edited November 16, 2023 by BruceVC