Ukraine Conflict

[Gorth]

On 12/7/2022 at 8:52 AM, Mamoulian War said:

A little bit more down to earth analysis of kaboom at Engels airport

 

 

Rear facing machine guns... yikes. Talk about 1970's technology level. Looking at the before, after and side views for the first plane, it looks like someone blew up the tanker parked there.

[BruceVC]

9 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

I didn't think Time could get more cringe than awarding 'you' the Person the of the Year in 2006, but that at least comes close.

(Zelensky is a perfectly fine choice, but jesus f christ the Star Wars Poster Format should only ever be used ironically guys)

Nah, I found the cover to be  accurate and relevant, its not cringe at all. Here is a link that explains the reasons for the artistic design. It is about the spirit of the resistance to Russia's invasion

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/time-names-the-2022-person-of-the-year-volodymyr-zelensky-and-the-spirit-of-ukraine-1031958038

 

To quote some of the thinking behind the design

"The impact of this story on 2022 is the essence of what Person of the Year was designed to capture, the idea that fateful events on the global stage are shaped—for better and worse—by the talents, priorities, fears, and foibles of individual human beings... For proving that courage can be as contagious as fear, for stirring people and nations to come together in defense of freedom, for reminding the world of the fragility of democracy–and of peace, Volodymyr Zelensky and the spirit of Ukraine are TIME's 2022 Person of the Year." https://bit.ly/3P9WCAN "

Its the perfect summary of Zelensky and definitely appropriate 

 

[pmp10]

Putin sets expectations for a long war.
So much for those diplomatic feelers that west was sending.

He doesn't seem too concerned with any upcoming economic collapse either. 

[BruceVC]

30 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Putin sets expectations for a long war.
So much for those diplomatic feelers that west was sending.

He doesn't seem too concerned with any upcoming economic collapse either. 

What a surprise, Putin cant admit his war was an egregious mistake. We know he doesnt care about the consequences for Russia, he has demonstrated this many times. And he doesn't have to worry about political fallout because he is an autocrat 

[Malcador]

7 hours ago, BruceVC said:

It is about the spirit of the resistance to Russia's invasion

Yes, still looks suitably over the top though.   At least they didn't engage in the weapon fetishism and have him hold a Javelin over his head while atop a HIMARS.

Griner released for Bout, as well.

[Gfted1]

^Was just coming to post that: Brittney Griner being freed in U.S.-Russia prisoner exchange (espn.com)

[BruceVC]

Im very happy with Griners release. The story of her incarceration  she is going to share is going to be very interesting one 

[Malcador]

Still something funny for a man the media is referring to as the Merchant of Death being traded...for a basketball player.

[kanisatha]

46 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

^Was just coming to post that: Brittney Griner being freed in U.S.-Russia prisoner exchange (espn.com)

But they left Whelen behind, and he's been incarcerated unjustly for over four years. I guess being a celebrity is what matters first.

[Hurlshort]

16 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

But they left Whelen behind, and he's been incarcerated unjustly for over four years. I guess being a celebrity is what matters first.

This seems like a weird take. Brittney Griner is an athlete that goes to Russia to entertain people with her exceptional skills. She was being held for personal use cannabis oil. She never should have been incarcerated in the first place. It was her celebrity put her in Russia to play basketball, it was her celebrity that led to her sentence, and it was her celebrity that let Russia use her as a bargaining chip. So I'm not sure how it is anything but excellent news that she was exchanged. She still spent 10 months in prison for some weed.

Whelan is accused of espionage. It is also probably Russia playing politics. But it is a very different scenario. 

[Malcador]

Celebrity probably did help in terms of people talking about her, but Russia sees him as a spy so that's different. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/family-paul-whelan-american-imprisoned-russia-says-warned-brittney-gri-rcna60732

They did try to get 2 for Bout but no dice there.

[Hurlshort]

Again, celebrity put her in the situation in the first place.

[kanisatha]

32 minutes ago, Hurlshort said:

Again, celebrity put her in the situation in the first place.

Then how do you explain Marc Fogel? Also imprisoned for drug use at about the same time as Griner. But no one even knows about him (nor cares).

Griner was persecuted not because she's a celebrity but because she's an American. But she certainly got her freedom, at great cost to past and future victims of Bout, entirely because she's a celebrity.

[Hurlshort]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

Then how do you explain Marc Fogel? Also imprisoned for drug use at about the same time as Griner. But no one even knows about him (nor cares).

Griner was persecuted not because she's a celebrity but because she's an American. But she certainly got her freedom, at great cost to past and future victims of Bout, entirely because she's a celebrity.

Her celebrity is what put her in Russia in the first place. The Fogel situation also sounds tragic. He also went there to work for the people of Russia and it is ridiculous that he is treated this way. It is 100% on Russia.

This just seems like a very negative approach to good news. It is good that Brittney Griner has been released. That doesn't take away from the injustice that other people are facing around the world. Does the US need to continue to work for their benefit? Of course. But this is still a positive story.

[ShadySands]

I'll be honest here, I don't really care all that much about this. I'm glad Griner is free but I think they're all idiots for being idiots abroad, especially in Russia of all places.

[Hurlshort]

20 minutes ago, ShadySands said:

I'll be honest here, I don't really care all that much about this. I'm glad Griner is free but I think they're all idiots for being idiots abroad, especially in Russia of all places.

It's hard to turn down that salary though. Rumors are she makes about a million in Russia compared to about $200k in the WNBA. 

It's also good for basketball to have athletes go abroad and grow the sport. I'd imagine this will basically kill women's basketball in Russia, at least from an international perspective.

My wife took a dance contract abroad when she was younger. It was a big deal to have that opportunity. It was in Japan, so it wasn't a huge risk, but I can still see why people would take these contracts. A bunch of the other dancers were from Russia. 

[ShadySands]

I don't blame her for going, I've been to Russia myself, I blame her for getting caught with weed in a place where it is illegal. 

I think it's highly likely she's been allowed to get away with it until she wasn't but that's all part of why you need to mind yourself when you travel.

Edited December 8, 2022 by ShadySands

[Zoraptor]

Yeah, just don't bring the drugs with you seems to be the actual answer to her problem. Doesn't seem to be any doubt she actually did the crime, the only disputation is whether the punishment was politically influenced.

(Probably a location thing, but NZers who get caught with drugs internationally get very little sympathy in general, because you get it drilled into you that most nearby countries will at absolute best stick you straight back on a plane with a return ban and fine if you're carrying any. Otherwise you know you'll face anything from rattan caning- compulsory in Singapore for drug importation, for example- to months or years of fun in an Indonesian/ Malay/ Brunei/ Filipino/ Thai jail. I can personally attest that all of those except the Philippines- never visited- make it incredibly clear that bringing in drugs is illegal and will earn some extremely bad consequences for you)

[Hurlshort]

It's fair to say it was dumb to bring weed with her to Russia, but it's a bit much to say she deserves 9 years in prison for it. The reasonable punishment is confiscation, deportation, and maybe a travel ban. There are a lot of people in the comments section of Fox News and Facebook that love to spout "She broke the law! Let her rot!"  

[Zoraptor]

'Reasonable' is completely subjective- I voted for decriminalisation here, so my personal opinion on punishment is obviously different from, say, Singapore's. Very difficult to argue that my personal opinion of what is reasonable trumps Singaporean (or Russian) law though, especially when they are well publicised. End of the day, if you're going into a country it's fundamentally expected and reasonable that you are bound by their law. If you don't like that don't go.

You'd be surprised how little sympathy some people have for their compatriots. IIRC a plurality of Australians actually supported the execution of two of the Bali Nine (Australians busted for exporting drugs from Indonesia, in Indonesia; looks like it was 47% approval for their execution from wikipedia).

The most realistic interpretation is that the 9 years was never going to be enforced anyway and she was always intended to be swapped. Indeed, there was pretty clearly some leverage applied too such as the reports she would be sent to a gulag which were probably designed solely so that there would be a 1:1 swap.

[BruceVC]

On 12/9/2022 at 12:45 AM, Hurlshort said:

It's fair to say it was dumb to bring weed with her to Russia, but it's a bit much to say she deserves 9 years in prison for it. The reasonable punishment is confiscation, deportation, and maybe a travel ban. There are a lot of people in the comments section of Fox News and Facebook that love to spout "She broke the law! Let her rot!"  

There is no reasonable argument to suggest she deserved the 10 year sentence for less than 1 gram of cannabis. It was completely political. Drugs are rampant and ubiquitous in Russia and this entire circus of an arrest was about one thing only, embarrassing the US

If Russia was a country like in ME countries where drug laws are strictly enforced and people are prosecuted consistently I would say it was reasonable. But I would love anyone to find me just one case of a Russian court sentencing anyone, outside of Griner, to 10 years for such a small amount of cannabis 

 

[Mamoulian War]

Indian PM Modi has refused to meet with Putin, and cancelled the annual bilateral meeting. Allegedly due to Putin’s nuclear threats.

edit: In Slovakia, Greiner would have a chance to get up to 15 years for weed samples. It is bull****, I support decriminalisation as well, but if anyone plans to go here on a weed trip, because weed here is pretty cheap, he is ****ing idiot, and deserves what happens to him. 
 

Also I have no sympathy for any sportsman/woman, who goes to Russia, because of money. Especially, if he/she is from a country, which is on the official Russian enemy list. All of them are morons, who sooner or later ends up as Putin’s blackmail goods. 100-200k Euro extra yearly income for being in Russia is not enough money to outweigh all the risks involved…

Edited December 10, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[xzar_monty]

53 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Also I have no sympathy for any sportsman/woman, who goes to Russia, because of money. Especially, if he/she is from a country, which is on the official Russian enemy list. All of them are morons, who sooner or later ends up as Putin’s blackmail goods. 100-200k Euro extra yearly income for being in Russia is not enough money to outweigh all the risks involved…

I also found it very odd when @Hurlshortsaid that it's hard to turn down a salary like that -- when it is only five times greater than a pretty reasonable salary in the US. Given everything else that is involved in working in Russia, I would very strongly argue that a salary like that is really quite easy to turn down.

In hindsight, I think Greiner would agree that it would have been a much better idea to turn it down.

And in any case, bringing illegal stuff to a foreign country is stupid in the extreme (very hard to feel sympathy for people who bring about their misery as blatantly as that). Rare is the person who is willing to admit that, though. So credit to Paul McCartney who did acknowledge his own idiocy after his stint in Japan.

Edited December 10, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Gorgon]

It's just hostage taking with another name. Countries without good relations to maintain with the US, and without any strong democratic tradition, will once in a while just decide to take a US hostage and get paid, maybe they have an idea of what they want in advance, maybe they don't. But historically it has happened a lot of times. 

[Gorgon]

You need to know when you might be meat on the menu for local intelligence agencies. It's just as important as making anti kidnapping predations.