Ukraine Conflict - "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare"

[kanisatha]

I also expect (hope?) the Russian nuke threat is just political theater. But Putin himeself, plus others (including the Serbian president?) have said since in public statements that Putin is not bluffing about using nukes to defend annexed "Russian territory."

As for these mobilized geezers, yeah it boggles the mind to think Putin believes these losers can turn the tide on the battlefield. They just lost the last of their T-72 force, abandoned in Izyum. They're now relegated to using T-62s and BMP-1s taken out of storage since the 1960s. Meanwhile, Western arms supplies are only increasing, in both quantity and quality, right now. Even the Biden Administration is supposedly still, in secret, working through the details of giving the Ukrainians Patriot and F-16s. This is why Medvedev again today doubled down in the Duma saying the US is now almost a combatant in Ukraine.

[rjshae]

My guess: nuclear weapon use in Ukraine could result in dirty bomb attacks in Moscow.

[Mamoulian War]

When you are so toxic, that even North Korea denies info on doing business with you…

 

[ComradeYellow]

https://asiatimes.com/2022/09/ukraine-the-situation-september-22/

300,000 reserves coming up just as I predicted and nukes on the table.  I'd say 300,000 stated publicly could translate to 600,000 in actuality.

My advice to NATO:  Let Russia and Ukraine deal with the war alone, strengthen NATO borders and keep it contained.  I do not want a nuke dropping on my head because the West has some weird 1000 year old civilizational hatred towards Russia.  This is getting dumber and dumber and crazier and crazier real quickly. 

[pmp10]

EU finally pays their due in grain export deal.
New sanction interpretation will allow the transport of coal and fertilizers through EU. 

More loopholes and exemptions.

[Elerond]

Considering that there are no

 

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/business_economy_euro/banking_and_finance/documents/factsheet-agrifood-eu-sanctions_en.pdf

 

"Contrary to Russia’s disinformation, the disruption of agricultural production and trade in Ukraine and the spike in global food prices is not caused by EU sanctions - but the very own actions of the Russian Government, such as: Russia should put an end to its actions to avoid a major food crisis.

Agricultural products can be imported into the EU from Ukraine - and transferred to third countries! There are no EU sanctions on imports from Ukraine whatsoever. Even products from the non-government controlled areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts can be imported, under certain conditions (if examined and approved by the Ukrainian authorities).

Phytosanitary products, including herbicides, fertilisers and agricultural machineries can be exported from the EU to Ukraine without restrictions! The restrictions on import of certain potash fertilisers under the EU sanctions on Russia and Belarus only apply to products imported to the EU and do not concern exports of them to Ukraine from the EU or from Russia. There is no cap or EU restriction for import of phytosanitary products as final products

Public financing or financial assistance for trade to Ukraine is not restricted! Any EU company can invest and support agricultural production in Ukraine, except in the non-government controlled areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, Crimea or Sevastopol

There are no EU sanctions targeting ancillary services for importing agricultural products into the EU from Ukraine and transfer them to third countries! EU companies can transport by road, air and sea agricultural products from Ukraine directly to the EU and onwards to partners, including via Ukrainian companies or any other non-sanctioned non-Russian companies.

EU sanctions cover only bilateral trade between the EU and Russia - not international trade! EU sanctions have no extra-territorial effect. Third country persons and firms can import agrifood from Russia under EU sanctions if they do that entirely outside the EU. EU’s sanctions excluded a limited number of Russian banks from the SWIFT network. Banking relations via SWIFT can still continue via the other Russian banks.

Agricultural products in Russia are not targeted by EU sanctions! EU sanctions do not prohibit EU businesses to purchase, import or pay for Russian agricultural products, provided that sanctioned persons are not involved. The EU has carefully avoided a direct and comprehensive ban on the import of Russian agricultural products. EU Member States can grant access to EU ports of vessels flying the Russian flag, as well as entry to the EU of Russian road carriers for the purposes of importing or transporting agricultural products, including fertilisers and wheat, that are not subject to prohibitions.

When restricted services are necessary for importing agricultural products from Russia (including via Belarus), EU sanctions provide for specific exceptions! EU Member States can authorise Russian-flagged vessels access to EU ports and Russian road transport undertakings to operate in the EU if that is for trade in agricultural or food products, including wheat and fertilisers, if the latter is not otherwise prohibited. Public financing or financial assistance for trade by EU companies in the Russian agri-sector is also possible.

Only a specific number of Russian and Belarusian banks – and not all – have been listed and/or de-SWIFTED EU businesses can make and receive payments for trade in agricultural products via other Russian and Belarusian banks

EU sanctions also envisage several exceptions for humanitarian purposes By way of example, EU Member States can authorise overfly of their airspace by Russian aircraft if that is required for humanitarian purposes. EU Member States are also authorised to grant access to EU ports of Russian flagged-vessels, as well as entry to the EU of Russian road carriers for the purposes of importing or transporting agricultural products, including fertilizers and wheat, that are not subject to restrictions

Agricultural products and food, including herbicides, fertilisers and agricultural machineries, can be exported from the EU to Russia, provided that no listed persons are involved! The cap and restrictions on certain fertilisers only apply to products imported in the EU and it does not concern exports of them to Russia or Belarus.

EU asset freezes on Russian or Belarusian companies have minimum impact on the agricultural sector! EU sanctions target those responsible for the brutal aggression of Russia against Ukraine. The involvement of the majority of those responsible in the agricultural sector is highly unlikely. The listing of some persons owning or controlling companies in the Russian fertiliser sector does not prevent them from using their products in Russia. EU sanctions also do not bind operators from third countries that choose to maintain commercial ties with Russia."

 

Commission's guidance about coal has not yet been published so it is difficult to say what it will contain in final form 

[BruceVC]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/22/europe/russia-protests-partial-mobilization-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html

Only in Russia would you find this, some of the anti-war protestors arrested are being not being jailed but are being immediately drafted into the army as punishment and will be going to Ukraine 

A great way to build morale 

 

 

[Zoraptor]

4 hours ago, Elerond said:

 

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/business_economy_euro/banking_and_finance/documents/factsheet-agrifood-eu-sanctions_en.pdf

ctrl+f Euro currency R(o)uble no results. Hmm.

(Seriously, who thought that the EU was sanctioning Ukraine? Never seen that so much as suggested, except for Donbass/ Crimea etc. The issue with importing into the EU from Ukraine was always that sea trade was shut, and rail capacity was ~1% of sea capacity- plus ran on a different gauge so you'd have to transfer everything without the equipment to do so easily.)

Edited September 22, 2022 by Zoraptor

[Gorth]

Sadly this thread looks like it's going to need more incarnations...