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Ukraine Conflict - "History never looks like history when you are living through it."

Mamoulian War

By Mamoulian War
in Way Off-Topic

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Elerond

Elerond

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Everything is pretty simplified- so is saying that the US spent 100bn p/a on Afghanistan so they can spend 100bn on Ukraine when the vast majority of spending in Afghanistan wasn't actually on Afghanistan, it was on the US. Hence US military spending not reducing by 100bn on withdrawal (it's increased, of course).

The average projected wage loss is 4%. Much as they'd like to they can't wave a hand and pretend it isn't, that's pure feel good sophistry.

 

Projected wage increase is 4.2% and projected HICP is 6.8% (projected peak 7.5%) (in comparison projected HICP without energy is 4.1%).

So in 'average' wage loss is 2.6% even if we pretend that energy price spike effects everyone same and that people use all their money in products and pretend that average people don't use big sunk of their income in rents, maintenance charges etc. that aren't projected to increase, so that we can pretend people's effective income decrease full HICP percentage.

And in 2023 predicted wage increase is 4.3% and predicted HICP is 3.5%. And in 2024 predicted wage increase is 3.7% and predicted HICP is 2.2%. So projected 'average' wage loss with above standard in next 3 years is 0.3%.

Even downside scenario that assumes following

The scenario assumes a complete cut in Russian energy exports to the euro area starting from the third quarter of 2022, leading to a rationing of gas supplies, significantly higher commodity prices, lower trade and intensified global value chain problems.

Predicted HICP is 8.0%, in that scenario 'average' wage loss in with above standard would be close to that your 4% (3.8%). In this scenario projected HICP in 2023 is 6.4% and in 2024 1.9%. There is no estimates if this scenario would effect in predicted wage increases. This scenario predicts also full collapse of Russian economy.

US spending in Ukraine is same as their spending in Afghanistan, so almost all the money goes to US companies, even more so than in case of Afghanistan as they don't need to pay to their troops, translators, local suppliers etc.. So US spending is not increasing 40 billion dollars when they give 40 billion dollars aid to Ukraine.

 

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Elerond

Elerond

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, pmp10 said:

If memory serves the average European owns a car and will definitely be hit by rising fuel prices.
And consider rising food prices in poorer eastern European countries.
Your median Estonian household was already spending 20% of income getting fed and now is now seeing 20% price hikes in foodstuffs. 
It's little consolation that if we match them up with unaffected Irish the average looks fine.  

Estonia's seeing 14.1% increase in food and beverages.

63.2% increase in electricity and gas.

Overall HICP 19.1%. Wage increase in Estonia is higher than euro are average 7.8%.

xzar_monty

xzar_monty

Posted
Posted

In other news: Russia has breached Swedish airspace once again. Also, according to Russian media, the president of Finland is psychotic; their analyst stressed that it is a real psychosis he's talking about.

This kind of stuff is not overly significant, but it shows what kind of country we're dealing with.

Malcador

Malcador

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

In other news: Russia has breached Swedish airspace once again. Also, according to Russian media, the president of Finland is psychotic; their analyst stressed that it is a real psychosis he's talking about.

This kind of stuff is not overly significant, but it shows what kind of country we're dealing with.

Well, he did call a thermobaric a WMD - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/both-sides-using-heavier-weapons-war-ukraine-says-finnish-president-2022-06-13/-  so maybe they're on to something.  Then again which media - could be the Russian equivalent of OAN or The Sun 😛

 

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

xzar_monty

xzar_monty

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Well, he did call a thermobaric a WMD - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/both-sides-using-heavier-weapons-war-ukraine-says-finnish-president-2022-06-13/-

The translation is wrong. He didn't use the term WMD, he described thermobarics as weapons capable of causing great destruction. There is a difference there, right? All WMDs are capable of causing great destruction, but not all weapons capable of causing great destruction are WMDs. The guy is a lawyer and strict with his language, so I'd wager he's chosen his words with care.

As for which media, that's a fair point and one I'm not able to ascertain. Russia has plenty of equivalents for The Sun, but I'm not sure if it has equivalents for quality media anymore. It used to, but a lot has changed in the past 3+ months.

Edited by xzar_monty
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Malcador

Malcador

Posted
Posted

Could be that, I had just chalked it up to usual politician rhetoric, as he is trying to scare people about a situation. 

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

xzar_monty

xzar_monty

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Could be that, I had just chalked it up to usual politician rhetoric, as he is trying to scare people about a situation. 

I understand. However, Sauli Niinistö is almost the opposite of a scaremonger: very careful with his language and very understated in his tone. I know you probably weren't aware of this and almost certainly haven't been able to listen to him in his native language, so no blame on you.

 

Btw, not relevant, but here's another example of the charm of Scandinavia (for me, anyway). The president of Finland came to a book fair to listen to his wife, but all the seats were taken so he just sat on the stairs. There's something refreshingly humane about that, i.e. the leader of country being in a position to do something simple like that without any hassle.

 

Edited by xzar_monty
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Malcador

Malcador

Posted
Posted

Interesting bit of trivia

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

xzar_monty

xzar_monty

Posted
Posted

According to various sources, none of which I'd trust, there's (been?) a huge fire in Russia's largest gas deposit today / yesterday. There are several videos on youtube for anyone who's interested. I haven't seen anything on this on any medium that I would trust.

Annoying, this. And it's been like this since about day one.

kanisatha

kanisatha

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

@BruceVC

Once this hits more pundits in the face, especially once midterms will be closer and dems will be grilled over spending on foreign affairs and arms instead of helping fight off recession, UA is lost. 

https://youtu.be/JprXag6b9IM

Nah. Biden has made it central to his foreign policy that Russia needs to lose in Ukraine. And he has enough Republican support for this policy. In fact, among both R's and D's in Congress, the demand is for Biden to go even further in supporting Ukraine, such as providing missiles that can hit Russian territory.

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Gorth

Gorth

Posted
Posted

I know, not the man anyone here wants to hear from, but I found the article as a whole interesting (it covers more than just the interview)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61825525

Lavrov: "Russia is not squeaky clean. Russia is what it is. And we are not ashamed of showing who we are."

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“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein
 

BruceVC

BruceVC

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Nah. Biden has made it central to his foreign policy that Russia needs to lose in Ukraine. And he has enough Republican support for this policy. In fact, among both R's and D's in Congress, the demand is for Biden to go even further in supporting Ukraine, such as providing missiles that can hit Russian territory.

Yes I agree, you can criticize Biden for certain things but his response to Putins War has been excellent and more importantly the bipartisan support from Congress has  more than exceeded my expectations

I only see the support possibly  changing under a Trump presidency but thats in 2024 and hopefully Putins War will be over by then

What I also have found reassuring is that the GOP establishment, like Mitch McConnel, and Democrat older members remember the Cold War and they understandably dislike any Russian aggression and hegemony. I remember when Trump became president both him and Putin thought Trump alone could drop the sanctions against Russia for the illegal annexation of Crimea

But the GOP controlled Senate ignored  any attempt to do this and in fact increased sanctions for the interference in the 2016 elections :grin:

Because Trumps understanding of geopolitics was never his strong point  and he did have an agenda of "normalizing " the relationship with Russia which we now know would have been a mistake because Putins objective of recreating the old Soviet borders would not have ended

So this indirect war  we are now in was inevitable , you cant trust a liar and warmonger like Putin

And whatever happens around Ukraine the future will be where Russia under Putin  is a  pariah to the West and is not an active member of the global economy that the West sustains. Russia can be part of it own economy with its allies and countries that decide to  trade with it, thats the choice of individual countries.  We just need to end the dependency on Russian energy as much as possible 

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"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

BruceVC

BruceVC

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Gorth said:

I know, not the man anyone here wants to hear from, but I found the article as a whole interesting (it covers more than just the interview)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61825525

Lavrov: "Russia is not squeaky clean. Russia is what it is. And we are not ashamed of showing who we are."

The refreshing honesty from Lavrov makes a nice change but its nothing that most of us didnt know about Russia and have known for years

I dont mind hearing from Lavrov but nothing changes the reality of Putins War, the only thing that really matters to me is when is Putin going to end his invasion of Ukraine 

And as  usual with everything from Lavrov its spin, blatant lies  and alternative facts. To  quote 

"We didn't invade Ukraine," he claimed.

"We declared a special military operation because we had absolutely no other way of explaining to the West that dragging Ukraine into Nato was a criminal act."

No you did invade Ukraine and no Ukraine wasn't  going to join NATO because it requires agreement from all member states and several NATO members would never have agreed like Hungary and Turkey 

Lavrov, the greatest and most unconvincing spin doctor of our era :grin:

 

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"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

Gorth

Gorth

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

The refreshing honesty from Lavrov makes a nice change but its nothing that most of us didnt know about Russia and have known for years

I dont mind hearing from Lavrov but nothing changes the reality of Putins War, the only thing that really matters to me is when is Putin going to end his invasion of Ukraine 

And as  usual with everything from Lavrov its spin, blatant lies  and alternative facts. To  quote 

"We didn't invade Ukraine," he claimed.

"We declared a special military operation because we had absolutely no other way of explaining to the West that dragging Ukraine into Nato was a criminal act."

No you did invade Ukraine and no Ukraine wasn't  going to join NATO because it requires agreement from all member states and several NATO members would never have agreed like Hungary and Turkey 

Lavrov, the greatest and most unconvincing spin doctor of our era :grin:

 

I actually found it more interesting to hear about BBC's failed attempts to get access to eastern Ukraine before the war... hence trying to emphasize the article itself and not Lavrov (as funny/sad as it is, the quoted line is probably the first true words he had said for a very long time)

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“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein
 

BruceVC

BruceVC

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

I wonder what was discussed unofficially with Zelensky. 

Germany will be having issues should gas flow fall further. 

I'm sure our German speaking friends might translate this better than me providing some broad summary 😉

https://rp-online.de/politik/deutschland/bundesnetzagentur-zu-gazprom-muessen-speicher-dringend-fuellen-heizvorgaben-fuer-vermieter-senken_aid-71367327

Dont you speak German? Im shocked .... many people are very lazy nowadays and all of us should know  multiple languages

I speak about 14 languages but I only speak English on this forum because its an English forum and I dont want the Moderators to shout at me :teehee:

Edited by BruceVC
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"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

BruceVC

BruceVC

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

@BruceVC

On the gas front, this might be more interesting for you. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/after-putin-xi-call-gazprom-ceo-pledged-energy-stability-russias-friends

Thats good news, now what about Russias friends in Africa who are going to be suffering from famine

Is Putin going to end the Black Sea naval blockade, thats more important than getting energy from Russia because their are alternative sources and supplies of energy like oil but not the amount of  wheat that cant leave Ukrainian ports?

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

Darkpriest

Darkpriest

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Thats good news, now what about Russias friends in Africa who are going to be suffering from famine

Is Putin going to end the Black Sea naval blockade, thats more important than getting energy from Russia because their are alternative sources and supplies of energy like oil but not the amount of  wheat that cant leave Ukrainian ports?

Got this, but I have not been looking at food recently in details, so i would not say it's 'checked'. Autumn carnage is guaranteed same as next years food inflation. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/turkey-russia-say-3-ukrainian-ports-can-now-be-accessed-grain-ships

 

I'm more focused on credit and equities recent days plus energy. 

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