Ukraine Conflict - Alle Dinge unterliegen Interpretation je nachdem, was Interpretation zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt herrscht, ist eine Funktion der Macht und nicht die Wahrheit

[Malcador]

4 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Yeah, you know, just yesterday I saw a news story in which a senior security official in the Biden Administration was quoted as saying that US policy is now to ensure that Russia "does not win" in Ukraine, effectively a denial strategy against Russia. I hope this is true, because then I would finally have something to cheer about.

Doesn't really seem like much of a change from before, recall Blinken or someone else going on about Ukrainian victory being inevitable, etc.

 

[ShadySands]

45 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

It would be extremely interesting to hear more about this, especially in two specific ways:

1) How these contradictory viewpoints come up -- like, how close to each other, in what ways, and so on, and

2) How is this contradiction addressed, if at all. Like, is there a sense of "I'm confused about this", or a sense of "There is no contradiction", or what.

Honestly, it's not a very large sample size (basically 2 households, one in eastern Russia and one in western Russia) and my wife has to translate most of it for me because my Russian is terrible and these topics always lead to fights so are largely avoided but I'll try.

1) The Moskva came up because my wife's uncle is a proud Captain 1st rank (retired). He holds a view like what you posted, the ship sank because of an accident and not because Ukraine attacked it but also that they must avenge it and make Ukraine pay. It might be important to note that he lost his eldest son on the Kursk and that also colors his views on top of being a proud Russian naval officer.

2) It's entirely glossed over, there is no contradiction. Putin is in Ukraine to save Russian lives and reports of dead Russians are propaganda and also acceptable for the greater good and it's also payback for the 2014 Odessa clashes and other incidents were Russians and pro-Russia supporters have been killed.  Though their view of those incidents tends to vary pretty wildly from what I've read about them but I honestly can't say if their sources are better than mine or not.

I hope that helps a little bit. I'm trying to be fair to them despite strongly disagreeing with them, they are family after all.

[kanisatha]

1 minute ago, Malcador said:

Doesn't really seem like much of a change from before, recall Blinken or someone else going on about Ukrainian victory being inevitable, etc.

 

Yes but this is saying the US government is now committed to proactively doing things to effectively deny Russia victory. From a governmental policy standpoint, it is fundamentally different. And it is huge.

Useful to also note that just today a new poll showed that a solid majority of Americans believe the president is not doing enough against Russia and in support of Ukraine. And political pressure on the Administration on this issue is now very much bipartisan and not just Republicans.

[xzar_monty]

@ShadySands, thank you very much, that was very interesting. It is both fascinating and terrifying to note this ability to both hold a contradictory view on a subject and ignore the contradiction -- and in a matter such as this. There is some literature on the subject of people's interior lives within totalitarian regimes (The Whisperers by Orlando Figes being one example), and it is an engrossing subject.

@kanisatha, and thanks to you, too. The use of nukes in the endgame does indeed seem like a logical conclusion of sorts. A terrifying prospect, of course.

[Malcador]

7 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Yes but this is saying the US government is now committed to proactively doing things to effectively deny Russia victory. From a governmental policy standpoint, it is fundamentally different. And it is huge.

Useful to also note that just today a new poll showed that a solid majority of Americans believe the president is not doing enough against Russia and in support of Ukraine. And political pressure on the Administration on this issue is now very much bipartisan and not just Republicans.

Wonder what they called it before then, but guess it ties in with giving the heavy weapons.  Polls also said a No Fly Zone was needed, too

[213374U]

3 hours ago, bugarup said:

he wasn't referring to (possibly) retaliatory attacks, but Russia's news channels in unison stating how Moskva sunk because of fire on board (as if ship sinking out of incompetence is somehow a better spin than it being sank by the enemy...), and at the same time, on the same TV channels their propaganda dogs howling for Ukrainian blood because "revenge for Moskva!"

I have seen exactly one video of a commentator on Russian TV specifically calling for revenge for Moskva, though there may have been more. Hardly an unison situation, let alone evidence to substantiate an attempt at collective psychoanalysis. If that's where we're setting the bar, I'd like to hear your verdict after watching 10 minutes of Tucker Carlson.

There's also an implication that anything any random talking head says says on Russian TV is 1:1 representative of the official Russian government position. That's not really how state media works.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

Sure, but the city didn't have to be stormed either.
Troops attacking Mariupol could have been used at Mykolaiv where a city cannot be easily bypassed.
So since it looks like a political objective it is a bit odd to delay complete capture. 

And another interesting development:
It seems that another arms package was just approved by Biden.
72 howitzers is actually quite the step-up.
If supplies continue being streamed like this Ukraine might retake some small bits of lost ground. 

I see Mariupol only as a tool for propaganda, because they were not able to seize it in 2014. I think it is complete foolishness to try to defeat it, because as you mentioned, they are using loads and loads of Russian troops to make the siege possible, and their soldiers are dieing at a crazy high rate. If Russia will be defeated in Ukraine one day, then their stubbornness to take Mariupol at all costs would be one of the root causes for that defeat. But that is still very long way to go, and the war still can end both ways. What is the biggest advantage of Ukraine, is that the Russian units, had no operational pause in this conflict, because 9th May is getting closer and closer. What is the biggest disadvantages for Ukraine, is that on the Eastern Front, they will now face much much bigger logistic challenges than Russia will.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, 213374U said:

I have seen exactly one video of a commentator on Russian TV specifically calling for revenge for Moskva, though there may have been more. Hardly an unison situation, let alone evidence to substantiate an attempt at collective psychoanalysis. If that's where we're setting the bar, I'd like to hear your verdict after watching 10 minutes of Tucker Carlson.

There's also an implication that anything any random talking head says says on Russian TV is 1:1 representative of the official Russian government position. That's not really how state media works.

Well in Russia it works the way, that the only allowed view on their TV, is the view of the Kremlin. There were definitely more than one occassion of Moskva sinking and need for revenge on Russian TV. I've seen myself two snippets of official state propaganda on the matter, and both in line with "Ukraine will pay for the Moskva, which sunk because of non-professional handling of ammunition on the deck". Tucker Carlson is a nuts, but it is still impossible to compare it to the propaganda spewed on the Russian state TV.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

4 hours ago, Malcador said:

**** off, with "wonder if you'd disagree." on the residential schools.  And you haven't seen the government dodge its involvement in the residential schools - their tenacity with going after the Church for their complicity is to cover their own.  Canada's more or less glossed over that for years as well, wasn't covered in schools until fairly recently.  

Not that Russia's "right" in any given instance, but the approach is pretty bog standard for nations (or managers).

Yeah, I think most people in positions of power try to deflect, minimize blame, or talk around it. What Russia says may be a little weirder, but the strategy itself is common enough.

2 hours ago, ShadySands said:

I'm trying to be fair to them despite strongly disagreeing with them, they are family after all.

I think you've mentioned that your wife also has family in Ukraine, how are family matters between them and the Russian family?

1 hour ago, 213374U said:

I'd like to hear your verdict after watching 10 minutes of Tucker Carlson.

 

I think making someone watch more than 10 minutes of is a crime against humanity. Or at least crime against good taste.

[HoonDing]

Imagine being called Tucker.

[Lexx]

lol, I thought the news feeds are bombing me with the same "oligarch family suicide"-story since yesterday, but now I accidentally found out that there was a *second* family that "suicided" itself. Coincidentally both families are linked to gazprom.

Surely we live in mysterious times.

[Mamoulian War]

"coincidentally"

[Lexx]

I've heard there are already 5 high profile gazprom guys who, uh, did the suicide. Coincidence indeed. Just wondering if this really is a Putin purge like some assume, or if some other intelligence agencies are involved. Guess we will never really find out.

Edited April 21, 2022 by Lexx

[Zoraptor]

7 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

The victory parade (mentioned in the video) and Russia's heroic victory over the Nazis also nicely ignores some extremely important parts of Russian history -- and, as such, yet again underlines how blatantly the country is ready to gloss over its own deeds.

Russia started World War II as an ally of the Nazis. This is not something the country wants to remember.

The big problem is not in the shifting alliances that may come along in times of extremity. The big problem is in the inherently untruthful approach that the country has taken in relation to itself, and, apparently, pretty much everything else as well.

Well sure, but then there's plenty about the lead up to WW2 that everyone wants to forget. One of the reasons the western reaction to M-R was so extreme was because... their entire plan involved getting the soviets and nazis to fight each other, and they patently didn't have a back up when that went wrong. M-R completely reversed that in favour of the soviets, and got the nazis and west to fight each other instead. It only didn't work because the west was so inept.

(well, and because Stalin gonna Stalin)

6 hours ago, Malcador said:

I suppose the degree of lying does matter, yes.  Bit of extreme analogy there, though.  I find that Wimbledon ban a bit of nonsense, but it is to be expected from Britain. I assume the US Open would as well.  I guess it would set a bad precedent, but I think people are kidding themselves if they think it will - the wrong people might get banned in future.

When did the west ever do something precedent setting that they didn't expect themselves to be immune from the logical consequences of? Just look at the mess the 'non precedent setting' Kosovo caused and the howls about it being a unique case. The only thing unique about it was that it was a western project.

6 hours ago, Elerond said:

I think it is more because Russian's realized that it is death trap that Ukraine has build since 2014. They have dig there several kilometres worth of underground tunnels with defensive positions to make it very difficult to storm. So Russians leadership probably realized that by blockading and bombardment they can free their troops to other battlefronts and avoid losing troops unnecessary for little gain.  

I very much doubt the Russians have just realised this. I don't think there was ever any prospect of them 'storming' the tunnels. The only question was how they'd avoid storming them- siege, Grand Slam/ Bunker Buster type bombing, or whatever.

The other thing about the tunnels though is that they are, well, right next to the sea, and below sea level. Pretty easy to siphon or divert water into, and then gravity does all the work for you. Even if they have defences for that they're subject to being overwhelmed by volume, and you can't get much more volume than the sea.

4 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Sure, but the city didn't have to be stormed either.

Mariupol pretty much has to be taken for a land bridge to Crimea. M-14 motorway runs to/ from it and that joins the M-18 to Crimea at Melitopol. There are alternative routes around Mariupol, but none as important and they all take you closer to the front line.

[Elerond]

6 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

I very much doubt the Russians have just realised this. I don't think there was ever any prospect of them 'storming' the tunnels. The only question was how they'd avoid storming them- siege, Grand Slam/ Bunker Buster type bombing, or whatever.

The other thing about the tunnels though is that they are, well, right next to the sea, and below sea level. Pretty easy to siphon or divert water into, and then gravity does all the work for you. Even if they have defences for that they're subject to being overwhelmed by volume, and you can't get much more volume than the sea.

Considering that they have tried to attack to them weeks, it does indicate that Russian leadership didn't have accurate picture of them as they know got order just to surround area.

I am not familiar of the landscape of the area, but it seem that flooding those tunnels isn't simplest operation or at least requires equipment that Russian troops don't have, as there is no indication that they have even tried such.

Bunker buster bombs aren't that good against long tunnels because they are designed to direct their explosion directly downward to break bunker ceiling, but in case of tunnels they have been ineffective in past conflicts because they are more expensive than 'normal' bombs and breaking small part of under ground tunnel network usually does nothing to prevent enemy using them. Which is why USA had lots of problems with ISIS and Vietcong's tunnels, even when they were able to locate them.

[Malcador]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/21/politics/official-coordinating-military-assistance-to-ukraine/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_term=link&utm_content=2022-04-21T20%3A36%3A07&utm_source=twCNNp

Glanced and saw General was worried they chose Clark

[kanisatha]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

I've heard there are already 5 high profile gazprom guys who, uh, did the suicide. Coincidence indeed. Just wondering if this really is a Putin purge like some assume, or if some other intelligence agencies are involved. Guess we will never really find out.

"Comrade, do you want the pill, or the pistol?"

[Zoraptor]

7 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Considering that they have tried to attack to them weeks, it does indicate that Russian leadership didn't have accurate picture of them as they know got order just to surround area.

I am not familiar of the landscape of the area, but it seem that flooding those tunnels isn't simplest operation or at least requires equipment that Russian troops don't have, as there is no indication that they have even tried such.

Bunker buster bombs aren't that good against long tunnels because they are designed to direct their explosion directly downward to break bunker ceiling, but in case of tunnels they have been ineffective in past conflicts because they are more expensive than 'normal' bombs and breaking small part of under ground tunnel network usually does nothing to prevent enemy using them. Which is why USA had lots of problems with ISIS and Vietcong's tunnels, even when they were able to locate them.

You can get a decent idea of the landscape from satellites, eg.

They didn't really try to attack (in order to capture) azovstal proper, just isolate it and pin down the defenders. The other parts were always the greater focus as they were easier, and azovstal is in a naturally defensible position with the sea and river along 3 sides. Random people on the internet knew about the Azovstal fortifications, I think it's fair to say that the Russians knew as well.

I'll explain how the water thing would work, though personally I suspect they'll just starve them out instead. I've just got a bit sick of people saying they're impregnable...

You don't need specialist equipment to flood tunnels, if their altitude is below sea level, except maybe a pump to start things off. We're on tank water here instead of municipal/ reciprocated, and I've accidentally siphoned ~5 cubic meters out via a standard 10mm domestic hose- didn't even actually require priming, as even I'm not dumb enough to have primed the hose and left it in the tank. Took about a day, but even the most bog standard 200mm black pvc drainage pipe can do 400x that rate, and it will do it every hour non stop until the sea runs out or level equilibrium. You'd want to prime it, but you can locate the pump in a safe place and once it is primed gravity does everything else.

(The other thing to consider is that because of the low altitude and sea proximity the water table is very high. Even if bunker busters aren't effective at destroying the tunnels they'll ruin the waterproofing

[ShadySands]

4 hours ago, KP wants Blue Velvet said:

I think you've mentioned that your wife also has family in Ukraine, how are family matters between them and the Russian family?

They don't speak at all and haven't for a long time

[Gfted1]

Mass grave near besieged Ukrainian city Mariupol spotted from space (satellite photos) | Space

[BruceVC]

@Malcador

Countries often ban other countries from sports events especially if those countries are involved in egregious human rights abuses and unprovoked wars and conflicts. SA was banned from numerous sports events during Apartheid which was understandable 

And Wimbledon is a private sector event as far as I know so you dont even need to be motivated by official sanctions by your country to decide to ban Russian athletes. Putins  War is motivation enough in the same way many Western companies pulled out of Russia like McDonalds. Companies can make business decisions around their own moral compass and value system

Why doesnt Russia creates its own " Russian Wimbledon " and invite countries that support Putins War like Belarus, Syrian, Eritrea, NK, Cuba and Venezuela. Russia had its own athletics event when they were  banned for state sponsored doping  so that would be my suggestion. Create a " Russian Wimbledon ", problem solved ?

[xzar_monty]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Why doesnt Russia creates its own " Russian Wimbledon " and invite countries that support Putins War like Belarus, Syrian, Eritrea, NK, Cuba and Venezuela. Russia had its own athletics event when they were  banned for state sponsored doping  so that would be my suggestion. Create a " Russian Wimbledon ", problem solved ?

There's the rub. Russia wants to have its cake and eat it, too. In other words, it wants to be a part of the international community that takes part in Wimbledon and so on -- but it also wants to break all the rules of that international community. And now it gets angry because it can't have both. "Russian Wimbledon" would have such a small number of participants that it would look ridiculous, and of course we all know this.

Good that you brought up South Africa, the bans on SA were a good earlier example of this same thing. The way these bans work is not entirely fair, but it's not entirely unfair, either. I.e. I think banning both SA then and Russia now are good ideas, although there have been plenty of bad ideas, too.

[BruceVC]

30 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

There's the rub. Russia wants to have its cake and eat it, too. In other words, it wants to be a part of the international community that takes part in Wimbledon and so on -- but it also wants to break all the rules of that international community. And now it gets angry because it can't have both. "Russian Wimbledon" would have such a small number of participants that it would look ridiculous, and of course we all know this.

Good that you brought up South Africa, the bans on SA were a good earlier example of this same thing. The way these bans work is not entirely fair, but it's not entirely unfair, either. I.e. I think banning both SA then and Russia now are good ideas, although there have been plenty of bad ideas, too.

Absolutely, their is a  common global view from supporters of Putin that is exactly what you suggest with the whole "we  want our cake and eat it " 

But I have been making a similar point since 9/11 when I started engaging online in these debates. Some citizens living in Western countries have often  criticized  the " evil, colonial, warmongering,  Capitalist West " and its perceived flawed ideology yet their is no better alternative if  you dismiss the principles of what Constitutional Democracies stand for because that is basically what  Western ideology represents

 

 

[Elerond]

9 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

You can get a decent idea of the landscape from satellites, eg.

They didn't really try to attack (in order to capture) azovstal proper, just isolate it and pin down the defenders. The other parts were always the greater focus as they were easier, and azovstal is in a naturally defensible position with the sea and river along 3 sides. Random people on the internet knew about the Azovstal fortifications, I think it's fair to say that the Russians knew as well.

I'll explain how the water thing would work, though personally I suspect they'll just starve them out instead. I've just got a bit sick of people saying they're impregnable...

You don't need specialist equipment to flood tunnels, if their altitude is below sea level, except maybe a pump to start things off. We're on tank water here instead of municipal/ reciprocated, and I've accidentally siphoned ~5 cubic meters out via a standard 10mm domestic hose- didn't even actually require priming, as even I'm not dumb enough to have primed the hose and left it in the tank. Took about a day, but even the most bog standard 200mm black pvc drainage pipe can do 400x that rate, and it will do it every hour non stop until the sea runs out or level equilibrium. You'd want to prime it, but you can locate the pump in a safe place and once it is primed gravity does everything else.

(The other thing to consider is that because of the low altitude and sea proximity the water table is very high. Even if bunker busters aren't effective at destroying the tunnels they'll ruin the waterproofing

Flooding tunnels isn't necessary that easy as it is large industrial area close to sea. If they have not cut cost and not build flood protections and underground drain it could be easier as is seen in some places where heavy rain causes flooding, but if tunnels are build like metro stations then flooding them takes quite lot water. 

Below sea level tunnels need to have water drains and flood rooms, in order to avoid then filling water because of rain and strong rising tide. Industrial area also usually have flood blockers in sea side in order to prevent sea eating land under the area (of course cost cutting cases aren't that uncommon as is seen multitude of times when sinkholes have appeared in industrial and residential areas). 

Even easy case you need to dig channels or build pipes for the water which isn't that easy when there are hostile enemies that will try to prevent you doing so by shooting you.

[xzar_monty]

Some very odd news right here.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/world-news/huge-fire-at-top-secret-russian-defence-hq-leaves-one-dead-and-30-wounded/