Ukraine Conflict - Das Himmelfahrtskommando

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

Excellent material here. Thanks for sharing!

I've also been reading a UK Ministry of Defense assesment that the Russians are militarily stalled on all fronts, have not made any progress in several days, and have actually lost ground and suffered huge casualties (now estimated at 7,000 dead). And this is why they are now just resorting to deliberately blasting civilian targets with missiles and artillery. A US Dept of Defense assesment says Russia has now deployed 75% of its combat forces to Ukraine. You put these two pieces of info together and it shows the Russians are a pathetic military power. They absolutely do not qualify as a great power, and are even questionable as a middle power. The only reason they command any respect, such as it is, is because they have thousands of nukes. That's it. Nothing else.

Today the Commandant of the US Marine Corps also gave an assesment of the Ukrainian army. Essentially they are fighting brilliantly, and are now rewriting the textbook on how a smaller and weaker army defends territory against a larger and more powerful invader. He especially credited the Ukrainians with demonstrating tremendous military leadership, organization, coordination, tactics, and tenacity, and apparently the US military has already informed their counterparts in Taiwan they should closely study the Ukrainian army if they ever want to be able to defend their land against invasion.

Speaking of China, here are two great stories today about how the vaunted *alliance* between China and Russia is not quite what it seems after all:

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/chinas-shifting-balance-interests-after-ukraine-invasion?_wrapper_format=html

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/will-xi-jinping-choose-putin-or-peace-by-chris-patten-2022-03?barrier=accesspaylog

More on China's latest steps.
 

 

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, bugarup said:

Whoever BBC follows or not follow and wherever Ukrainian troops hide or not, it's not them who are responsible for civilian deaths. They are not killing those civilians. Russian army is killing them.

Yeah, nah. You can argue the legitimacy of the invasion making Russia responsible and that's fine, so long as you apply the reasoning evenhandedly. Which, let's be frank, most won't since it makes them responsible for ~1 million dead Iraqis (meh, via excess deaths/ population difference, but still).

If you don't apply that then you end up with the definition of military vs civilian targets, and soldiers hiding under a building makes it a legitimate target.

Indeed, it seems likely that someone has pointed that out to the BBC as the bit with the soldiers sheltering under the building is no longer in the report.

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

The only Ukrainians the Russians are killing in Mariupol are civilians--women and children. Thus, even if Mariupol "falls," it won't actually fall, in that the Russians may occupy the city but won't control it and no Ukrainian soldiers will be surrendering or getting captured as a result.

Yeah, nah. There's a Marine Brigade and a regular army Brigade in Mariupol. Azov won't surrender, Azov has tried to escape at least once already, the rest?

The 'martyrs of Snake Island' actually surrendered rather than fighting to the death.

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

Russia has no air superiority whatsoever.

Russia has air superiority*. I know 'experts' are claiming they don't, but that's pure propaganda. What it doesn't have is air supremacy**. The situation is murkier because Ukraine is continuously being resupplied, but... well. We've had maybe 10 TB2 videos despite Ukraine being resupplied with them at least twice- and that's less than one video per drone that they had 6 months ago, let alone including resupplies. There were days in Artsakh with twice that many. And to draw a comparison, the Yugoslavs were still flying sorties at the end of the Kosovo intervention. I don't think anyone would dispute NATO having air supremacy there though.

*"degree of dominance in [an] air battle ... that permits the conduct of operations by [one side] and its related land, sea and air forces at a given time and place without prohibitive interference by opposing air forces"

**"degree of air superiority wherein the opposing air force is incapable of effective interference"

Both definitions are NATO definitions, incase anyone wants to quibble.

[kanisatha]

3 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

More on China's latest steps.
 

 

Yeah I saw this too. So much for the silly nonsense that India is supporting the Russians. They never were. And even China is beginning to cave on their support for Russia precisly because they're beginning to feel global pressure to stand with the Ukrainians. GLOBAL pressure. Not just Western pressure. And they're getting fearful they will start losing respect as a responsible player in the world.

I predict soon Putin will expand from doing psycho things inside Ukraine to doing psycho things inside Russia, such as arresting and executing people within his military and intel establishment. Then he will start doing that to ordinary average Russians who dare to protest his dirty war, you know, all those "traitor scum." At that point, I expect (hope?) someone within the establishment will step up and put a bullet in Palputin's head, like putting down a rabid animal.

[Zoraptor]

Most of the 'silly nonsense' is about India and China not supporting the western position, not them supporting Russia. Unless you take ComradeYellow seriously, and you really shouldn't. Might not be relevant for India, since most western countries like to pretend it doesn't exist except to contain China, but China really couldn't care less about western impressions- after years of Yellow Peril scaremongering and trade wars what impressions are there to squander? Thinking anyone else is going to do anything to China over Ukraine is just... laughable. Most of them won't even do anything to Russia besides vote in the UNGA.

I mean, if we are going to go by official statements rather than twitter scuttlebutt from unnamed sources we get:

Definitely distancing themselves from Russia's position there.

Once again, fighting diplomatic battles on multiple fronts at the same time is monumentally stupid, and they won't be paused just because it's convenient to the west if they are.

Oh yeah. How many Important People were going to be imminently arrested/ sacked by Putin so far? Gerasimov, Shoigu (plus he was going to launch a coup...), the head of the FSB and SVR? as well... Confirmed number actually arrested or sacked so far is, well, zero?

[BruceVC]

5 hours ago, bugarup said:

Whoever BBC follows or not follow and wherever Ukrainian troops hide or not, it's not them who are responsible for civilian deaths. They are not killing those civilians. Russian army is killing them.

 

We have  a Russian apologist " socialist " political party in SA  called the EFF ( Economic Freedom Fighters ) and they have been parroting the Russian propaganda and meeting the Russian ambassador and openly shaking his hand and agreeing  and repeating  all the Russian gaslighting

Now to be fair to the EFF  they dont have any qualified economists or historians in their leadership structures so in the SA narrative they typically make these  ridiculous and controversial comments like " nationalization of banks " and their leader is facing about 4-5 separate charges in court ranging from assault  to hate speech 

Anyway when one of their politicians was asked " what about all the killing of civilians in Ukraine by  Russia " he said "Russia is not targeting any civilian buildings or killing civilians, the Ukrainians have released people from prison and they killing civilians and its the US propaganda that is showing fake news about the bombing of towns and civilian buildings " 

So you must never be surprised by the blatant lies and propaganda from Russia and those people who repeat this misinformation 

 

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Yeah, nah. You can argue the legitimacy of the invasion making Russia responsible and that's fine, so long as you apply the reasoning evenhandedly. Which, let's be frank, most won't since it makes them responsible for ~1 million dead Iraqis (meh, via excess deaths/ population difference, but still).

 .

Nah, we fine with charging Russia with war crimes for what they have done to the Ukrainian  civilians

If want to bring up Iraq again then we must also charge Russia for war crimes in Syria 

Lots of blood on Putins hand, I would say he is lucky to only be charged for the terrible carnage in Ukraine 

[BruceVC]

5 hours ago, Gorth said:

Ethics aside and just looking at the technical side of things, Russia made two significant military blunders. Not having twenty first century communication technology and a complete lack of modern air warfare doctrine. Ironical that Ukraine is calling for the US to start fighting Russian planes when they are hardly there to begin with. Russia has no air superiority whatsoever. Much of the rest of that military disaster that is the ground campaign follows from those two issues. An enemy that knows your every move and lack of timely intel/reconnaissance 

Two lessons they need to learn… some day.

You posted that link about the failed Russian air military strategy, it was very interesting and why they dont have air superiority 

[Malcador]

6 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

You posted that link about the failed Russian air military strategy, it was very interesting and why they dont have air superiority 

 I guess S-300s working is a surprise. Sort of funny to see them referred to as relics in media.

[Zoraptor]

49 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

If want to bring up Iraq again then we must also charge Russia for war crimes in Syria

Sure I'd be happy with that too- I'm happy with anything with anything so long as it's applied even handedly without fear or favour.

The problem is we all know it won't be applied even handedly.

[Gorth]

This thread moves fast than the front line at the moment... annexed a few posts to start a new thread with

 

Old thread

 

[bugarup]

4 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Sure I'd be happy with that too- I'm happy with anything with anything so long as it's applied even handedly without fear or favour.

The problem is we all know it won't be applied even handedly.

Ah, the good old "But what about <insert appropriate tangent here> !!!!" argument. I don't know why I bother since you likely post these tangents deliberately, but in case if I'm mistaken - yes, civilian deaths in Iraq is humanitarian catastrophe and should not be forgotten. But when you throw them in here, in the thread about ongoing revanchist war waged by unhinged fascist dictator, it does not look like you are doing this because you give a **** about war crimes committed against dead Iraqis. It looks like you are looking for excuses to whitewash war crimes currently being committed by said fascist dictator. 

Edited March 18, 2022 by 213374U
word filter circumvention

[BruceVC]

@Zoraptor

You are really the  only active person on these forums  who generally responds to questions about this conflict and I wanted to understand something 

One of  the reasons from Putins propaganda to justify the invasion is the fear of nukes being moved by NATO to Ukraine which means nukes on the border of Russia 

But both Estonia and Latvia are on the border of Russia and both countries are part of NATO. So if NATO wanted to move nukes to the border of Russia they could do with Estonia and Latvia ?

So how does one justify this argument for an invasion of Ukraine?

[majestic]

@Mamoulian War, @Gorth or @Amentep... please fix the article in the title. It's das, not der.  

That is all. 

[Gorth]

16 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

@Zoraptor

You are really the  only active person on these forums  who generally responds to questions about this conflict and I wanted to understand something 

One of  the reasons from Putins propaganda to justify the invasion is the fear of nukes being moved by NATO to Ukraine which means nukes on the border of Russia 

But both Estonia and Latvia are on the border of Russia and both countries are part of NATO. So if NATO wanted to move nukes to the border of Russia they could do with Estonia and Latvia ?

So how does one justify this argument for an invasion of Ukraine?

One of the previous videos I posted, gave a sort of answer to that. The Baltic countries does not provide good staging grounds for a massive invasion of Russia. Ukraine (and Belarus) does. With the loss of Poland, DDR, Czechoslovakia etc. as buffer territory, Ukraine became the "new" buffer to protect against invasions from the west.

[Gorth]

Just now, majestic said:

@Mamoulian War, @Gorth or @Amentep... please fix the article in the title. It's das, not der.  

That is all. 

Jawohl!... /smart salute

[pmp10]

According to Erdogan Putin is not budging on his conditions.

Also no demand for sanction lifting which is interesting.
Unless they consider it self evident. 

[Lexx]

What's up with the german titles lately.

[Gorth]

Just now, Lexx said:

What's up with the german titles lately.

Im Westen Nichts Neues was a good read.  War is not a recommended solution to any problem.

[bugarup]

24 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

But both Estonia and Latvia are on the border of Russia and both countries are part of NATO. So if NATO wanted to move nukes to the border of Russia they could do with Estonia and Latvia ?

Hey, we have a border too!  Königsberg enclave, stuffed to the brim with ballistic missile systems all looking Westward in honestly completely totally friendly peacekeeping way. 

On a slightly more frivolous note, because TGIF, here are some actual statements of Russian propaganda, grouped together by creative individuals for absurd comedy purposes:

 

† Russia did not attack Ukraine, but Ukraine must stop resisting and surrender.

† Special operation is not war, but economical sanctions is war.

† Special operation was started to prevent war. That‘s exactly why it is using army.

† Russian conscripts were not sent to front lines, but some of them died there.

† Maryupol‘s maternity ward was bombed because it was hiding nationalists dressed as pregnant women, but we did not bomb that maternity ward anyway, it was nationalists who bombed it themselves. Also it‘s a fake made in Hollywood.

† Special operation is going according to plan, our troops do not encounter resistance, but in three weeks we only captured Kherson and blockaded Maryupol.

† All Ukrainian war planes were destroyed in airports, but two weeks later Ukraine treacherously bombed Belarus.

† It is OK to wish death to Ukrainians on Russian TV, but wishing death to Russian occupants is extremism.

† Russian troops are not fighting against civilians, but exclusively against nationalists. All 40 millions of them.

 

[BruceVC]

33 minutes ago, Gorth said:

One of the previous videos I posted, gave a sort of answer to that. The Baltic countries does not provide good staging grounds for a massive invasion of Russia. Ukraine (and Belarus) does. With the loss of Poland, DDR, Czechoslovakia etc. as buffer territory, Ukraine became the "new" buffer to protect against invasions from the west.

That makes sense but surely  NATO could still launch nukes from the Baltic states? Because the specific point made in SA from RT anchors and the Russian embassy is " Russia doesnt want nukes on its border " ?

[BruceVC]

14 minutes ago, bugarup said:

Hey, we have a border too!  Königsberg enclave, stuffed to the brim with ballistic missile systems all looking Westward in honestly completely totally friendly peacekeeping way. 

On a slightly more frivolous note, because TGIF, here are some actual statements of Russian propaganda, grouped together by creative individuals for absurd comedy purposes:

 

† Russia did not attack Ukraine, but Ukraine must stop resisting and surrender.

† Special operation is not war, but economical sanctions is war.

† Special operation was started to prevent war. That‘s exactly why it is using army.

† Russian conscripts were not sent to front lines, but some of them died there.

† Maryupol‘s maternity ward was bombed because it was hiding nationalists dressed as pregnant women, but we did not bomb that maternity ward anyway, it was nationalists who bombed it themselves. Also it‘s a fake made in Hollywood.

† Special operation is going according to plan, our troops do not encounter resistance, but in three weeks we only captured Kherson and blockaded Maryupol.

† All Ukrainian war planes were destroyed in airports, but two weeks later Ukraine treacherously bombed Belarus.

† It is OK to wish death to Ukrainians on Russian TV, but wishing death to Russian occupants is extremism.

† Russian troops are not fighting against civilians, but exclusively against nationalists. All 40 millions of them.

 

I have stopped being appalled and surprised by the Russian propaganda, the only reason I still follow it is because its still raised in our SA media by Russian apologists so I need to be aware of it when its discussed on our talk shows which I am active on 

[213374U]

46 minutes ago, bugarup said:

Ah, the good old "But what about <insert appropriate tangent here> !!!!" argument. I don't know why I bother since you likely post these tangents deliberately, but in case if I'm mistaken - yes, civilian deaths in Iraq is humanitarian catastrophe and should not be forgotten. But when you throw them in here, in the thread about ongoing revanchist war waged by unhinged fascist dictator, it does not look like you are doing this because you give a **** about war crimes committed against dead Iraqis. It looks like you are looking for excuses to whitewash war crimes currently being committed by said fascist dictator. 

This was brought up in the context of Russian shelling of residential buildings where Ukrainian troops were sheltering. As per the Geneva Conventions, this makes it a legitimate military target, and has been the justification in, for example, Israel bombing hospitals. The extent to which the damage is excessive in relation to the military reason given is debatable, and ultimately, a question of law. Pointing out precedent is neither "a tangent" nor "whataboutism*" -- it is just that, precedent that is used to establish context. The same argument you are directing at Zoraptor could be just as easily adapted to suggest that you don't care about Palestinians killed by Israeli airstrikes. It's... not terribly useful to infer motivations, and it generally leads to discussions degenerating into petty squabbles.

I'd happily see Putin tried for launching a war of aggression in the ICC. But if we are going to have that working, other people need to be tried there first -- because their crimes predate Putin's.

*this has to be one of the most perverse buzzwords in a long time. Anyone pointing out any sort of inconsistency? Just claim "whataboutism" and you don't need to address any actual points. Accusations of hypocrisy? Don't worry, fire back with "whataboutism" and you win automatically. It's basically a way to justify the old "do as I say, not as I do", but with less words and no possible rebuttals. It's great!

Also, please do not circumvent the word filter. Thanks.

[bugarup]

5 minutes ago, 213374U said:

'd happily see Putin tried for launching a war of aggression in the ICC. But if we are going to have that working, other people need to be tried there first -- because their crimes predate Putin's.

Really. But what it is impossible to try people responsible for Iraq right now for whatever reasons? So, since someone who committed war crimes went yet uninvestigated, Putler can do whatever he pleases because, I dunno, it's rude to jump the Hague queue? 

[Elerond]

There is no war crime tribunals against USA or Russia without someone else taking over them as neither one recognizes authority of ICC

[Mamoulian War]

Sorry @213374U, but your argument about Ukrainian forces being in civil buildings is moot. The first thing which Russia bombs in every single city including Western Ukraine, where is no active conflict brewing) are Hospitals, Schools and Kindergartens. Then they start shelling water and food reservoirs and only then other infrastructure. After that they try to attack against Ukrainian forces, and get asskicked. Even in Mariupol which is besieged from day 3 of the invasion, they are losing whole brigades day by day... The other thing is Mariupol, Kharkiv and most of the cities around Doneck and Luhansk are cities with very high population of ethnic Russian. So in the 22 days of shelling, Putin managed to kill more Russians than Ukrainians (even if we exclude all of his fallen soldiers). That big of a **** he is...

Edited March 18, 2022 by Mamoulian War