Ukraine Conflict - Drei Kameraden

[kanisatha]

57 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

This is currently the problem and what worries me the most. I don't think Putin is willing to lose face, and it seems like he is increasingly placing himself in a situation where every outcome will look badly on him. Be it a war loss(unlikely), an eternal war of attrition(likely), or Russian economic collapse (maybe?).

 

So he is painting himself into a corner, and I have to wonder how much of a raving idiot/lunatic he can be? Is scorched earth an option for him?

Well put. And that's the problem with every single diplomatic initiative thus far, whether bilateral between Russia and Ukraine, or third-party such as Turkey, Israel or France: Putin puts forth an absolutely ridiculous set of demands on Ukraine, demands that are effectively complete surrender, something he has not been able to achieve militarily and yet he expects he can get it diplomatically, where he offers nothing to the Ukrainian side, not even a meaningful guarantee that they can expect to live in peace in the future free of the spectre of another Russian invasion, and then insists Ukraine must accept all his demands and that those demands are non-negotiable. The guy is truly delusional and has lost touch with reality. This is why I have consistently expressed my skepticism about the value of any diplomacy with this guy.

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

So yes Putin can achieve victory by occupying Ukraine but they will lose the war due to  the Western sanctions but either way they will have to pull out of Ukraine in the next 6-24 months maximum I would guess ?

What is his goal isn't (and never really was) occupying Ukraine? Just remembering whatshisname the guy whose analysis was casually dismissed, that the goal would be to destroy Ukraine. You know, if we can't have it, make sure nobody else wants it.

[Darkpriest]

I wonder if this was anywhere verified as real. 

 

[Malcador]

20 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

I wonder if this was anywhere verified as real. 

 

Seems to be although seen people saying the entire column was annihilated which I am not seeing.  It is funny to see people's conclusion from one engagement though - I guess too much one sided warfare on TV skews people's minds.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Malcador

[ComradeYellow]

8 hours ago, Lexx said:

Nice whataboutism.

Or projection.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

I wonder if this was anywhere verified as real. 

 

yesterday was on liveaumap in the surrounding of Brovary like 10 icons of russian convoys getting destroyed. So it seems legit to me. But you never know...

[Mamoulian War]

51 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Seems to be although seen people saying the entire column was annihilated which I am not seeing.  It is funny to see people's conclusion from one engagement though - I guess too much one sided warfare on TV skews people's minds.

As answered to Darkpriest, this was the original telegram

https://t.me/dvish_alive/9564

"Russian column on the way to Brovary was destroyed near Velyka Dymerka, Bohdanivka, Rudnya villages. Security Service of Ukraine asking citizens to report on Russian soldiers who fled to nearby areas"

[kanisatha]

There are lots of reports of how Russian troops are communicating on open unencrypted channels and that this is how NATO intel, Ukrainian intel, NGOs, and even amateur radio sleuths are able to know so much about what's going on within the ranks of the Russian invasion forces. Here are some interesting articles on this:

https://news.yahoo.com/cover-town-artillery-fire-online-224642107.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAc94xs22ood4h-qkQzcCk6ZTXPi1yYou_uX0qbtOznG8CkHZyHFtarZbwuSMABCCfddzEc8IDf3HuJgGN9qKTWMllHTtV13mJCHgjQgrlhji2cAltwP1HO9PyB3XkA9VJJ0Eq8cP18LgpAV1atOmJByq6liHzHDAJY50SZo0jqC

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10567135/Mutinous-Russian-troops-overheard-complaining-Ukraine-invasion.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/vitaly-gerasimov-second-russian-general-killed-ukraine-defence-ministry-claims

[Mamoulian War]

@kanisatha can you give us some theorycrafting if this tweet is legit?
 

 

[rjshae]

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

And that was exactly my point No oil, no need for intervention

Your conclusion does not follow. There was a general lack of international intervention in Rwanda.

[Darkpriest]

Some more prominent business is starting to talk aloud what some people knew the moment heavier sanctions came in. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/volkswagen-ceo-warns-ukrainian-war-could-be-worse-europe-covid

Also, some narrative change from Russia regarding fertilizers, plus China threats to US. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-considers-temporary-ban-agricultural-products-countries-outside-eurasia

This whole thing will reshape global economy for the next 20 years

[Malcador]

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

And that was exactly my point No oil, no need for intervention

US got too scared from a little blood in Somalia

[BruceVC]

9 minutes ago, Malcador said:

US got too scared from a little blood in Somalia

That was partly the reason, Clinton was horrified at the way those  two dead Delta Force soldiers were dragged naked through the streets of Mogadishu  by militant groups and paraded in some sort of grotesque theater 

Trump would never have tolerated that, thats one of the things I liked about Trump 

[xzar_monty]

2 hours ago, kanisatha said:

The guy is truly delusional and has lost touch with reality. This is why I have consistently expressed my skepticism about the value of any diplomacy with this guy.

There is little reality in the whole camp, it appears. According to Sergei Lavrov, Russia "did not attack Ukraine". So there doesn't seem to be a whole lot than can be achieved through diplomacy.

[Malcador]

9 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

That was partly the reason, Clinton was horrified at the way those  two dead Delta Force soldiers were dragged naked through the streets of Mogadishu  by militant groups and paraded in some sort of grotesque theater 

Trump would never have tolerated that, thats one of the things I liked about Trump 

US really made a mess of that whole situation, from starting with the Cobra attack that killed 50+ because Cobras are great assassination tools, to the operation where they underestimated their opposition.   Trump would have probably done something even more stupid and realize Oakley's threat about levelling half of Mogadishu, heh.

It's funny looking back on Black Hawk Down to realize what a propaganda movie it is.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Malcador

[ComradeYellow]

Considering even the most ardent BLM "progressives" are anti Russia now, I can't wait until Red Dawn is now mandatory elementary school viewing.

Spoiler

 

The future is Conan the Barbarian.

Edited March 10, 2022 by ComradeYellow

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Well put. And that's the problem with every single diplomatic initiative thus far, whether bilateral between Russia and Ukraine, or third-party such as Turkey, Israel or France: Putin puts forth an absolutely ridiculous set of demands on Ukraine, demands that are effectively complete surrender, something he has not been able to achieve militarily and yet he expects he can get it diplomatically, where he offers nothing to the Ukrainian side, not even a meaningful guarantee that they can expect to live in peace in the future free of the spectre of another Russian invasion, and then insists Ukraine must accept all his demands and that those demands are non-negotiable. The guy is truly delusional and has lost touch with reality. This is why I have consistently expressed my skepticism about the value of any diplomacy with this guy.

I do think Putin is neurotic and paranoid but I dont think he is politically or economically suicidal 

He is still a survivalist. For example he is paranoid about getting the virus, remember how Macron was treated and had to sit at the end of that huge table. A suicidal person wouldnt care about the virus in such an extreme way ?

 But he is committed to this invasion and he needs to save face  and needs to win something from the negotiations

 

[Totally not Gorgon]

On 3/9/2022 at 9:16 AM, Lexx said:

I'm not so sure about that anymore. If the maintenance of their most important military assets is anything to go by, most of their nuclear missiles probably don't even work anymore. If I remember right, the arsenal needs to be replaced every 10 years.

Also, I wouldn't discount the possibility of Putin being overthrown. 

Putin would bear the whole burden for everything that goes wrong in a lengthy occupation of Ukraine. They made the entire country hate them, well aside from the breakaway republics, which means they can't hold it long term anyway. Not without casualties, and people with families in Russia will start to talk, the official lies won't hold. 

[kanisatha]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

@kanisatha can you give us some theorycrafting if this tweet is legit?
 

 

I can actually believe this. We have had several sources report that all of Russia's intel agencies were taken by surprise when Putin went ahead with an invasion. And apparently all the heads of those services were and still are opposed to the invasion. Furthermore, even many top generals in the military were of the belief this was all yet another one of Putin's mind-games with the West and were shocked when Putin gave the order to invade. The rank and file troops also appear to have been convinced they were not actually going into combat. Even after they were told to go into Ukraine, many believed they were going into a peaceful peacekeeping situation and not one where they were going to get shot at. There are credible reports FSB agents have been tipping off both Ukraine and Western intel agencies with inside info on Russian plans. I would not be surprised if Russian military sources were/are also in contact with the Ukrainians and the West in secret.

We know Putin's circle of people he talks with has been getting smaller, if that is possible. I would bet right now the only person he listens to is Sergei Lavrov, because Lavrov, like Putin, is also delusional and a true believer in Putin's crazy fantasies. And this is the source of great danger many Western intel analysts are raising the alarm about, that Putin could make a rash decision, not because he's crazy per se but because he is so very isolated and has lost touch with reality. Even setting aside Western/NATO countries, there is a very grave danger that out of frustrationn for the was not going well, anger with the Ukrainians for resistingn him and not giving him what he wants, and to save face, he may actually give the order to use weapons of mass destruction against Ukrainian strongholds of resistence, which of course would be the big cities.

[xzar_monty]

34 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

I do think Putin is neurotic and paranoid but I dont think he is politically or economically suicidal 

He is still a survivalist. For example he is paranoid about getting the virus, remember how Macron was treated and had to sit at the end of that huge table. A suicidal person wouldnt care about the virus in such an extreme way ?

 But he is committed to this invasion and he needs to save face  and needs to win something from the negotiations

 

That's actually a fair point.

We have to keep in mind that Putin is almost certainly surrounded by a group of yes-men and nothing else, which means that for years, he has been told what he wants to hear. Thus, his initial grasp of the situtation may have been extremely poor, and who knows, maybe it still is.

As for what the future holds, no idea.

This is such a terrible waste, because Russia has all the resources to be an extremely strong and wortwhile country, but it chooses not to be. It has chosen this throughout its history: there has never been a time when Russia has been a trustworthy player on the international stage. For example, in the early 2000s, there were some projects near Moscow that aimed at improving enterpreneurship in Russia, but they were ditched rather quickly. The "Russian mentality" was so strongly opposed to it: the reliance on the use of force was so strong that once anything got going, Russians just declined to co-operate because they were so certain that the other side was out to exploit them in some way. The idea that co-operation would be the best way for mutual benefits just couldn't take hold.

There is a really good way to measure a country's attraction. See who lives outside that country and check whether they want to get there to pursue a better life than is available in their homeland. Here, Russia fails miserably. People don't want to go there or invest there. There is a flood of people getting away from Russia right now: they are the young and well-educated Russians who'd be best equipped to build a much better country than they have now. And so many of them are leaving. Trains and buses going out from Russia are full of Russians.

[ComradeYellow]

I will give @kanisatha credit on the fact that most people in the "Russian circle" were shocked that he actually did invade, but he's wrong on Russians abandoning him and most Russians including the armed forces are willing to go through with it, whatever potential short term consequences.

As they say in China, "crisis" also means opportunity, if this invasion does in fact result in bleeding "Putinism" out, Russia has a golden opportunity to bring itself closer to China and aid Russia in economic recovery whilst also respecting Russian sovereignty.  41% of the worlds population which constitutes of Western skeptics can assist Russia should she find herself bottomed out, as Russians would rather go to China than repeat the 1990's when the West attempted economic "shock therapy" that resulted in mass looting of the Russian economy with little gain for the average citizen.

This is all assuming the War in Ukraine's end result will be a Russian defeat of course, which is not even a definite.

Edited March 10, 2022 by ComradeYellow

[Mamoulian War]

15 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

I can actually believe this. We have had several sources report that all of Russia's intel agencies were taken by surprise when Putin went ahead with an invasion. And apparently all the heads of those services were and still are opposed to the invasion. Furthermore, even many top generals in the military were of the belief this was all yet another one of Putin's mind-games with the West and were shocked when Putin gave the order to invade. The rank and file troops also appear to have been convinced they were not actually going into combat. Even after they were told to go into Ukraine, many believed they were going into a peaceful peacekeeping situation and not one where they were going to get shot at. There are credible reports FSB agents have been tipping off both Ukraine and Western intel agencies with inside info on Russian plans. I would not be surprised if Russian military sources were/are also in contact with the Ukrainians and the West in secret.

We know Putin's circle of people he talks with has been getting smaller, if that is possible. I would bet right now the only person he listens to is Sergei Lavrov, because Lavrov, like Putin, is also delusional and a true believer in Putin's crazy fantasies. And this is the source of great danger many Western intel analysts are raising the alarm about, that Putin could make a rash decision, not because he's crazy per se but because he is so very isolated and has lost touch with reality. Even setting aside Western/NATO countries, there is a very grave danger that out of frustrationn for the was not going well, anger with the Ukrainians for resistingn him and not giving him what he wants, and to save face, he may actually give the order to use weapons of mass destruction against Ukrainian strongholds of resistence, which of course would be the big cities.

Let's hope that it is credible, and some of the FSB will prepare some coup... IMHO that would be the fastest outcome with lowest count of casualties out of this ****ty situation

[xzar_monty]

3 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Let's hope that it is credible, and some of the FSB will prepare some coup... IMHO that would be the fastest outcome with lowest count of casualties out of this ****ty situation

It is, of course, impossible to predict stuff like this, but I also think that Putin's removal is the only way to end this quickly and without a terrible death toll.

[xzar_monty]

Btw, Russia has now admitted that it has used conscripts in the invasion. Again, that is cynical and cruel beyond belief. Putin has denied this, of course, but a Russian ministry has admitted that it's true.

Must be great when you start your military service, have no experience whatsoever, get driven somewhere in what you're quite possibly told is a drill and then find yourself against people fiercely willing to protect their country from your invasion.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-acknowledges-conscripts-were-part-ukraine-operation-some-taken-prisoner-2022-03-09/

Edited March 10, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Lexx]

They are still drafting conscripts in Donesk, etc. and send them to fight.