Ukraine Conflict - Drei Kameraden

[BruceVC]

6 hours ago, Pidesco said:

 

To give myself as an example, as a Portuguese dude living in Sweden, I will defend Portugal if a Swede criticizes it, while I will defend Sweden if the converse happens. 

I can and will criticize both myself though. In other contexts. 

I have found the best criticism is constructive criticism from others because if we only rely on self criticism than we often miss things about ourselves. 

[ComradeYellow]

4 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Yes the US has been the largest producer of oil for years, thats another reason why its silly when people go on about " The US only invades countries that have oil " because thats patently untrue 

Back in 2003 Saudis were the oil chiefs (fun fact Russia also produced more crude oil back then) and it wasn't until 2018 or so when U.S. took that slot so it does make sense from an imperialist governments perspective to secure oil in Iraq for the benefit of empire. 

I just haven't been keeping up is all.

Funny how Iraq oil production barely even makes the lists nowadays, reinforcing the theory that the invasion was a massive waste of time, resources, effort, and significantly hurt U.S. standing in the world for a very long time.

[Zoraptor]

Iraq places 5th so they definitely make any list- they're probably 4th above Canada in actual production. Barzani smuggles a lot out via Turkey that doesn't appear in official figures.

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Yes the US has been the largest producer of oil for years, thats another reason why its silly when people go on about " The US only invades countries that have oil " because thats patently untrue 

Think you can replace 'invades' with 'cares about', might be more accurate.

[BruceVC]

43 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Think you can replace 'invades' with 'cares about', might be more accurate.

Malc thats a terrible thing to suggest, what about the humanitarian mission in Somalia that the movie Black Hawk Down was based on?

What about Bosnia and Kosovo...I dont think either of those countries have oil?

[Malcador]

37 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Malc thats a terrible thing to suggest, what about the humanitarian mission in Somalia that the movie Black Hawk Down was based on?

What about Bosnia and Kosovo...I dont think either of those countries have oil?

More accurate, not perfectly so.

[Lexx]

5 hours ago, ComradeYellow said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunduz_hospital_airstrike

 

Nice try

Nice whataboutism.

[bugarup]

8 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Current intel assesment of Putin's state of mind (his worst actions are yet to come):

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/us/politics/us-intelligence-russia-ukraine.html

Plus in two months there's May 9, Russia's most sacrosanct holiday of victory over former best friend Nazi Germany. Its celebration is already as pompous as it was during Soviet era, and jingoism was getting through the roof lately too, so botoxic agent will absolutely want to have something to show off. Add White House's warning about possible chemical or bio weapon attack plus Russian propaganda's current spin about "bioweapon labs", add them talking about officially ditching European Council along with its pesky Convention on Human Rights (not that Russia ever paid heed to it, but official denouncement is another thing), so...yeah. I'm afraid we did not see the worst of him yet. 

P.S.: 

"According to Konashenkov, according to the documents, the American side planned to study pathogens in birds, bats and reptiles and the possibility of these animals carrying African swine fever and anthrax":

https://ria.ru/20220310/biolaboratorii-1777416748.html

(Official state news channel, can recommend for science fiction fans because it gives this bizarre feeling of peeking into parallel world)

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by bugarup

[pmp10]

Seems the diplomatic meeting in Turkey was short and fruitless.
Both sides are looking to be in this for a long haul. 

Guess we might really see just how much economic war can west stomach. 

[Mamoulian War]

5 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Malc thats a terrible thing to suggest, what about the humanitarian mission in Somalia that the movie Black Hawk Down was based on?

What about Bosnia and Kosovo...I dont think either of those countries have oil?

What about Rwanda?

[BruceVC]

43 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Seems the diplomatic meeting in Turkey was short and fruitless.
Both sides are looking to be in this for a long haul. 

Guess we might really see just how much economic war can west stomach. 

You ask a good question, how much can the West stomach? I am prepared to continue for as long as it takes to end Putins War. The problem with not finding a real negotiated settlement is you just embolden Putin and his  warmongering and that doesnt help anyone. Lets look at the sequence of events that led us to this

• We were told Putins not a warmonger : That was a lie
• We were told Putins worried about NATO but he is one trying to recreate the old Soviet borders irrespective if the citizen of that country want to align with Russia or not 
• We were told Putin wanted to negotiate around Ukraine : That was lie 
• We were told Putins buildup of troops on the Ukraine border was just a " training exercise " :That was a lie
• We were told Putin wont try to unilaterally recognize the separatist states : That was a lie 
• We were told Putin wont invade Ukraine : That was a lie
• We were told invasion was about helping Russian speaking people and the denazification of Ukraine: That was a lie
• We were told the Russian military wont target Ukrainin civilians : That was a lie 

The West and its allies needs to make a stand ,as Putin cannot be ever trusted to not do this again,   over Ukraine and it shouldnt end until we come to a proper, agreed on settlement that the Ukrainians also agree to

 

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

What about Rwanda?

The US didnt intervene in Rwanda, we were  talking about US military interventions that are not about oil and are about things like humanitarian reasons 

[Mamoulian War]

58 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Seems the diplomatic meeting in Turkey was short and fruitless.
Both sides are looking to be in this for a long haul. 

Guess we might really see just how much economic war can west stomach. 

It is more or less how big losses can Russia still stomach, yesterday Ukraine sunk Vasily Bykov in Black sea worth 50 millions, they have captured at least 4 Pantsir AAA vehicles each 11-20 millions pop, each SU and Mig downed is 2-5 millions, that 30 destroyed helicopters near Kherson was also at least 50 - 100 million loss... each Iskander fired is more than million and so on... Russia might besiege Kyiv in the end, but the cost will be for Russia impossible to cope with even if they sell everything they have for one simple reason. They will be unable to resupply their army with fresh equipment, due to lack of microchips... So they might end up in very ****ty situation and hopping that Xi would not start to think, that he should acquire some parts of Russia, which historically belonged to Chinese empire...

The cost of this war on Russian side might be already close to 10 billions, not counting the Special Economic Operations imposed by the west.

[Mamoulian War]

9 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

The US didnt intervene in Rwanda, we were  talking about US military interventions that are not about oil and are about things like humanitarian reasons 

And that was exactly my point No oil, no need for intervention

[BruceVC]

15 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

And that was exactly my point No oil, no need for intervention

Aaahhh, you being sneaky  

Mamie the US and its allies cant and wont intervene in every conflict or examples of genocide. For example their was no military intervention in Myanmar and the genocide of the Rohingya Muslims because thats Chinas backyard and to be honest they should have stopped it

And unless its a conflict linked to Islamic Extremism and is  a direct threat to the US the US needs African Union agreement to intervene in Africa or the government  of any country to request US military involvement

As far as I know the African Union never asked for US military intervention in Rwanda because back then, 1994,  it was seen as imperialism or neo-Colonialism or some other similar word that has a selective definition 

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

It is more or less how big losses can Russia still stomach, yesterday Ukraine sunk Vasily Bykov in Black sea worth 50 millions, they have captured at least 4 Pantsir AAA vehicles each 11-20 millions pop, each SU and Mig downed is 2-5 millions, that 30 destroyed helicopters near Kherson was also at least 50 - 100 million loss... each Iskander fired is more than million and so on... Russia might besiege Kyiv in the end, but the cost will be for Russia impossible to cope with even if they sell everything they have for one simple reason. They will be unable to resupply their army with fresh equipment, due to lack of microchips... So they might end up in very ****ty situation and hopping that Xi would not start to think, that he should acquire some parts of Russia, which historically belonged to Chinese empire...

The cost of this war on Russian side might be already close to 10 billions, not counting the Special Economic Operations imposed by the west.

If Russian position was this bad why refuse to talk?
Economy is not my forte but I think they can achieve victory even when technically bankrupt. 

Edited March 10, 2022 by pmp10
Accidentally a word.

[Mamoulian War]

11 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

If Russian position was this bad why refuse to talk?
Economy is not my forte but I think they achieve victory even when technically bankrupt. 

Because Putin would lose his face, he was considered for a decade one of the most fearsome leaders in the world, and now they are bleeding money on the battle field. The conflict was underestimated from his side, especially on the logistic and security side, food rations were in the convoys for max three days. There are even allegedly pictures of destroyed tanks which carried ceremonial equipment for planned parade after seizing Kyiv... Putin does not agree to anything than what looks like a victory for him. Or he drives his country to implosion. Winners of war are not always countries with bigger armies, but the armies, whose economy can survive the conflict longer. And West can supply defensive armaments to Ukraine for much longer time than Russia can supply their troops with current situation in the world. But at the moment no one knows how long can Ukraine defend. The current peace offer from Russia is akin on complete surrender, and that is an absolute no go for Ukraine.

[BruceVC]

15 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

If Russian position was this bad why refuse to talk?
Economy is not my forte but I think they achieve victory even when technically bankrupt. 

Yes they will more than likely " defeat " then Ukrainian army but  whatever happens after that the sanctions will continue 

You must see this as a longer term conflict than just the terrible war in Ukraine, the true weapon against this Russian aggression are the sanctions 

So yes Putin can achieve victory by occupying Ukraine but they will lose the war due to  the Western sanctions but either way they will have to pull out of Ukraine in the next 6-24 months maximum I would guess ?

[pmp10]

20 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Because Putin would lose his face[...]

I'm sorry but you are saying that peace talks would lose him face but bankruptcy of the country and resulting military collapse won't.
And another thing while we are on the subject of economy:

21 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Winners of war are not always countries with bigger armies, but the armies, whose economy can survive the conflict longer.

Just how certain are we, that Ukraine will not go bankrupt before Russia?
It was a poor country to begin with, and by now most economic activity has pretty much ceased.

 

20 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

So yes Putin can achieve victory by occupying Ukraine but they will lose the war due to  the Western sanctions [...]

For all we know Kiev can fall within weeks and I'm not convinced the most biting sanctions will last beyond a peace treaty. 
I'm also seeing a lot of bets that this is a 3-months war and the push for 'old normal' will get strong afterwards.

[Pidesco]

17 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

I'm sorry but you are saying that peace talks would lose him face but bankruptcy of the country and resulting military collapse won't.

 

This is currently the problem and what worries me the most. I don't think Putin is willing to lose face, and it seems like he is increasingly placing himself in a situation where every outcome will look badly on him. Be it a war loss(unlikely), an eternal war of attrition(likely), or Russian economic collapse (maybe?).

 

So he is painting himself into a corner, and I have to wonder how much of a raving idiot/lunatic he can be? Is scorched earth an option for him?

[Elerond]

50 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

I'm sorry but you are saying that peace talks would lose him face but bankruptcy of the country and resulting military collapse won't.
And another thing while we are on the subject of economy:

Ideological wars have tendency to go on even when it would have been reasonable to end them years earlier.

Like for example Vietnam war, Soviet-Afghanistan war.

Super powers continue losing wars for decades even though they have little to nothing to gain. 

[Darkpriest]

Quite an interesting piece, about potential economic fallout and future landscape of bargaining power as a result of banning more and more valuable comodities from US and EU transactions. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-tees-stop-russian-gold-act-triggering-lbma-and-comex-eject-russian-refiners

The underlying question for the future will be, who has more bargaining power, the one with physical conmodities surpluses or the one with a piece of digital paper? 

What will happen, if those owning natural resources will decide to stop accepting USD and EUR as the main currency for transactions? After all, if they can be made worth 0 with a single pen stroke, why use them and not some other, more secure and less weaponized one? 

[Malcador]

Yep, as everyone could have guessed they said the hospital was being used by Ukrainian fighters.  No proof of that, not even a sketchy highlight reel, tsk.

[Darkpriest]

18 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-march-9-2022-231603838.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

Good news, the oil price dropped to $110 just on sentiment that OPEC will produce more oil

Hopefully they stick to this commitment because then the Russian invasion will have less global economic impact around this commodity 

@Darkpriest Its good news if OPEC will sustain it 

Well UAE said the rumor is BS and they have nonplans to increase production. Someone created rumor on purpose... When oil was in 130s. This caused a flash crash to 105 and a lot of people lost piles of money. 

Oil back over 115 today and slowly climbing, however US is flirting with Venezuela, that's how desperate US is, as Iran talks stall... 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/venezuela-frees-pair-jailed-americans-amid-bidens-ukraine-war-oil-diplomacy

Also, today's CPI higher, at 7.9%. EU inflation also higher and ECB has to turn hawkish. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-consumer-prices-are-rising-their-fastest-pace-over-40-years

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trichet-trickery-ecb-turns-hawkish-just-it-warns-sharply-higher-inflation-slower-growth

A lot of pain ahead. I'd start worrying if EU can sustain all these imposed sanctions as economy will start to implode the longer it stays as is. 

 

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Darkpriest]

Also, a disclaimer on this, as I have notnyet verified  it in full (need some calls) but it does sound as a very possible scenario, considering prices in Poland went from around 5.50PLN per liter to 8PLN per liter of diesel fuel within 2 weeks. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/major-european-trucking-firm-hit-fuel-shortage-after-ukraine-invasion