Ukraine Conflict - Drei Kameraden

[HoonDing]

Some foreign cannon fodder ran afoul of Russian rockets in Lwów.

What did they expect, really?

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, HoonDing said:

Some foreign cannon fodder ran afoul of Russian rockets in Lwów.

What did they expect, really?

Last time I checked it was normal for journalists to be in numerous conflict areas

I am not sure what you mean by " what did they expect " ? Remember this is not Russia or China where they kill journalists 

[Malcador]

3 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Last time I checked it was normal for journalists to be in numerous conflict areas

I am not sure what you mean by " what did they expect " ? Remember this is not Russia or China where they kill journalists 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-europe-nato-poland-c82be23ebd5faea1846c9170c58b8c7b

[Zoraptor]

That was the Russians hitting the NATO base ('former') in Lvov, Bruce. It was where they were training Ukrainians to use NLAWs. Kind of surprising they hadn't hit it before, really. The journalist getting shot was half way across the country. Oh yeah, and Ukraine most definitely kills journalists and opposition politicians, at one point in 6 weeks of 2014 more opposition politicians and journalists died in Ukraine than had died under Putin's entire time in Russia. You just didn't hear about them because that was after the glorious democratic revolution.

6 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

I wish you could spend a week reading all the russian troll farm **** spewed everyday in the eastern europe, where these "outlets" killed few thousand people with false medical information...

Nah, they killed themselves.

It also has to be stated that the face of modern antivax- ie not new age 60s hippies- is British Doctor Andrew Wakefield. Who wanted to get rid of the MMR vaccine because he'd patented individual version of them and literally made up research that people still believe to try and get it banned. Who slagged off Astra Zeneca because it was (part) British and Biontech was German? von der Leyen, again, in one of the most short sighted moves ever. If Astra Zeneca is going to kill you because it's British badly made then why not other vaccines that had the same level of testing, ie all of them? Reason #7 why von der Leyen is an abject moron, in a set of at least 20 and climbing. And all done because Britain left the EU and she was throwing a wobbly over the divorce proceedings.

If there's one thing I hate it's trying to blame everything on the alt right or russian trolls. Though sometimes it's hilarious such as our antivaxxers being labeled alt right and waving Maori Sovereignty flags (they're completely immiscible philosophies, the only way Maori sovereignty activists are alt right is if you're alt right yourself)

5 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I am not sure whether this is intended as satire, irony or something, or whether it's simply foolish.

100% serious actually. You'll find a lot of people describe the US as an oligarchy.

Your reaction is the same as, say, describing the US government as the 'Biden regime'. The only reason knees jerk through desks at the description is because that's a 'bad' word that should only be applied to 'bad' governments. Rupert Murdoch makes or breaks governments in the UK and Australia through his media empire- and states it himself. He's had media laws changed to benefit himself, frequently. He didn't get rid of his media wing when he got rid of the rest of Fox because he wanted to retain his influence. He's an oligarch, by any definition. The only way he isn't is if you believe he can't be, because he's a westerner.

6 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Keep in mind, the original report was published by UNIAN.

er, lol.

UNIAN == RT in quality. It's really, really bad.

More generally, I do have to admit that I am getting a great deal of amusement out of people posting racist tropes and then defending them as "everyone knows they're true and always have been". Once again, Enemy at the Gates is not a documentary.

[Mamoulian War]

that's why I did write the UNIAN disclaimer

[Mamoulian War]

Russia asked China for military help (weapons).

https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7

Seems, like even the most pessimistic projections on how Russia sucks at this "special operation", were to optimistic...

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

that's why I did write the UNIAN disclaimer

OK, sorry about that.

(A lot of people think UNIAN = United Nations.. due to the first two letters and is thus authoritative. Which is presumably why Kolomoisky picked the acronym in the first place)

[Gorth]

For those interested in military tactics and strategies... an interesting analysis on why Russia sucks at air superiority and all the problems it causes for land based operations. It's like, the military strategists in Moscow never watched CNN footage of the Iraq War in the 1990's

 

Edit: Even little old layman me noticed back then, that the first wave of attacks were against air defense systems to the exclusion of many other things...

 

 

[ComradeYellow]

Worth a thought I think...

[Malcador]

Oh God no, military Youtubers!

 

[Gorth]

49 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Oh God no, military Youtubers!

 

Some of them actually do a decent job. Warning, this video features intense, relentless combat. But it's not what it looks like at first and the guy does some very decent analysis work afterwards piecing together what's happening.

 

 

[Lexx]

1 hour ago, ComradeYellow said:

Worth a thought I think...

Why? We knew people would go there for a short term war vacation.

 

This is funny:

Also I like the top comment:

Some people need to take notes, this is what infringing on freedom of speech, would actually look like. The lighter end of it too. From arrests to being shot before you could speak.

Not having your dumbass racist comment deleted off Facebook.

[Darkpriest]

US is trying to bully China now into complecancy... 

Also this.... 

It will not end well... Do those stupid millenial Dems know nothing of diplomacy? Or do they actually believe US is some exeptional mesiah with god like powers of granting and taking away the blessings and well being? 

At the same time, they do not even mention Saudi Arabia and killing 81 people in a one day  by beheading...

Seriously, does US even know how reliant and vulerable they are economically? It's not 1940s where almost entire supply chain and production was held domestically... 

Edited March 14, 2022 by Darkpriest

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Gorth said:

For those interested in military tactics and strategies... an interesting analysis on why Russia sucks at air superiority and all the problems it causes for land based operations. It's like, the military strategists in Moscow never watched CNN footage of the Iraq War in the 1990's

 

Edit: Even little old layman me noticed back then, that the first wave of attacks were against air defense systems to the exclusion of many other things...

 

 

I was about to say " Gothfuscious !!!! Enough with this Putin propaganda " but then I watched the video and its really interesting and explains the reasons for some of the issues with the Russian military strategy in Ukraine 

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

US is trying to bully China now into complecancy... 

It will not end well... Do those stupid millenial Dems know nothing of diplomacy? Or do they actually believe US is some exeptional mesiah with god like powers of granting and taking away the blessings and well being? 

At the same time, they do not even mention Saudi Arabia and killing 81 people in a one day  by beheading...

Seriously, does US even know how reliant and vulerable they are economically? It's not 1940s where almost entire supply chain and production was held domestically... 

Yes, yes my friend 

We have heard it all before. The  Western sanctions against Russia are going cause the collapse of  Western  economies

And most of us dont believe that so we fine with the sanctions and the consequence of them 

[Darkpriest]

16 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Yes, yes my friend 

We have heard it all before. The  Western sanctions against Russia are going cause the collapse of  Western  economies

And most of us dont believe that so we fine with the sanctions and the consequence of them 

If Morgan is putting pieces like this in their note, you bet the outlook is more grim than that. 

--------

Reserve diversification still likely: Our long-standing view has been that there will be reserve diversification, and we continue to believe that the share of the Chinese yuan in global FX reserves could reach 5-10% by 2030 at the expense of other reserve currencies.

To the extent that SWIFT and reserve asset sanctions levied by other authorities around the world encourage some states to explore alternative payment systems such as China’s CIPS or pursue greater bilateral trade in domestic currencies, recent events are likely to act as an accelerator of a shift to a 'multipolar world.'

But it is not clear that recent actions have undermined the idea of USD as the safest global reserve asset and it may well remain the dominant global currency for some time to come, albeit at slightly lower levels than before.

[Darkpriest]

Some more footage of UA soldiers. 

 

[Mamoulian War]

Russia is increasingly pulling forces from its international deployments to reinforce operations in Ukraine, though these deployments are unlikely to shift the balance of forces in the coming week. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 13 that 800 personnel from Russia’s 102nd Base in Armenia deployed to an unknown location in Russia on March 9-10 in preparation to deploy to Ukraine. They also reported that Russia is recalling elements of its peacekeeping deployment in Nagorno-Karabakh to replenish losses in Ukraine. Russia will likely draw further forces from its international deployments in Armenia, Tajikistan, and Syria to replace losses in Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff separately reported that Russia plans to deploy 1,500 troops from Russia’s 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (of the Pacific Fleet) to Belarus via rail at an unspecified time.

Ukrainian intelligence provided further details on Russia’s initiative to deploy existing pro-Assad units to Ukraine and recruit additional Syrian and Libyan mercenaries on March 13. Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russia is recruiting mercenaries from Syria and Libya and will pay them around $300-$600 monthly. Russia reportedly opened 14 recruitment centers in Syria and will transport mercenaries to the Chkalovsky airbase in Moscow Oblast after they receive training. The GUR reported that Russia has already gathered “thousands” of Syrian troops, mainly those specialized in heavy artillery and sniper weapons, from the National Defense Forces and 5th Corps—two Russian-backed pro-Assad units. Russia can likely redeploy its established Syrian proxy forces in the National Defense Militia and 5th Corps on relatively short notice, dependent on its airlift capacity. However, even hurriedly trained Syrian and Libyan mercenaries will likely take weeks or months to deploy to Ukraine and will likely be of lower quality than the already poor Russian forces in Ukraine. Russia is unlikely to successfully mobilize the reinforcements and replacements necessary to favorably change the balance of forces around Kyiv in the next week but may successfully generate a longer-term pool of low-quality replacements.

The Kremlin may be seeking to take direct control of Belarusian units to deploy them in Ukraine but faces Belarusian resistance. Independent Ukrainian media reported on March 13 that Russian commanders are taking control of Belarusian units to suppress Belarusian soldiers’ efforts to resist going to war in Ukraine and reported  “riots” in some Brest-based units. ISW cannot independently confirm these reports through other sources at this time; if confirmed, the reports support ISW’s previous assessment that the Kremlin seeks to bring Belarus into the war but faces resistance from both Belarusian soldiers and Belarusian President Lukashenko. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russian forces established a base for repairing and restoring military equipment in Kulichikha, Belarus, (17 km from the border) on March 13.

 

excerpts from latest ISW report

[Elerond]

3 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

If Morgan is putting pieces like this in their note, you bet the outlook is more grim than that. 

--------

Reserve diversification still likely: Our long-standing view has been that there will be reserve diversification, and we continue to believe that the share of the Chinese yuan in global FX reserves could reach 5-10% by 2030 at the expense of other reserve currencies.

To the extent that SWIFT and reserve asset sanctions levied by other authorities around the world encourage some states to explore alternative payment systems such as China’s CIPS or pursue greater bilateral trade in domestic currencies, recent events are likely to act as an accelerator of a shift to a 'multipolar world.'

But it is not clear that recent actions have undermined the idea of USD as the safest global reserve asset and it may well remain the dominant global currency for some time to come, albeit at slightly lower levels than before.

CIPS has big dollar problem

Largest Chinese export  partners

1. United States: US$452.6 billion (17.5% of China’s total exports)
2. Hong Kong: $272.7 billion (10.5%) (Which largest trading partner after China is USA)
3. Japan: $142.6 billion (5.5%) (Which largest trading partner after China is USA)
4. Vietnam: $113.8 billion (4.4%) (Which largest trading partner is USA)
5. South Korea: $112.5 billion (4.3%) (Which largest trading partner is USA)
6. Germany: $86.8 billion (3.4%) (Which largest trading partner is USA)
7. Netherlands: $79 billion (3%) (Which largest trading partner is USA)
8. United Kingdom: $72.6 billion (2.8%) (Which largest trading partner is USA)
9. India: $66.7 billion (2.6%) (Which largest trading partner is USA) 
10. Taiwan: $60.1 billion (2.3%)  (Which largest trading partner after China is USA)
11. Singapore: $57.5 billion (2.2%) (Which largest trading partner after China and Hong Kong is USA)
12. Malaysia: $56.4 billion (2.2%) (Which largest trading partner after China and Singapore is USA)
13. Australia: $53.5 billion (2.1%) (USA is forth largest trading partner)
14. Russia: $50.6 billion (2%)
15. Thailand: $50.5 billion (2%) (Which largest trading partner is USA)

But luckily USA is not vindictive against countries that try to avoid its rules

[bugarup]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Russia is recruiting mercenaries from Syria and Libya and will pay them around $300-$600 monthly.

Someone should make a counter-offer to these guys to work as, say, Lidl cashiers. Might be a bit more stressful or so I heard, but with slimmer chance of workplace death. 

[Darkpriest]

2 hours ago, Elerond said:

CIPS has big dollar problem

Largest Chinese export  partners

1. United States: US$452.6 billion (17.5% of China’s total exports)
2. Hong Kong: $272.7 billion (10.5%) (Which largest trading partner after China is USA)
3. Japan: $142.6 billion (5.5%) (Which largest trading partner after China is USA)
4. Vietnam: $113.8 billion (4.4%) (Which largest trading partner is USA)
5. South Korea: $112.5 billion (4.3%) (Which largest trading partner is USA)
6. Germany: $86.8 billion (3.4%) (Which largest trading partner is USA)
7. Netherlands: $79 billion (3%) (Which largest trading partner is USA)
8. United Kingdom: $72.6 billion (2.8%) (Which largest trading partner is USA)
9. India: $66.7 billion (2.6%) (Which largest trading partner is USA) 
10. Taiwan: $60.1 billion (2.3%)  (Which largest trading partner after China is USA)
11. Singapore: $57.5 billion (2.2%) (Which largest trading partner after China and Hong Kong is USA)
12. Malaysia: $56.4 billion (2.2%) (Which largest trading partner after China and Singapore is USA)
13. Australia: $53.5 billion (2.1%) (USA is forth largest trading partner)
14. Russia: $50.6 billion (2%)
15. Thailand: $50.5 billion (2%) (Which largest trading partner is USA)

But luckily USA is not vindictive against countries that try to avoid its rules

I'll ask again, who has more economic power, one who has natural resources and means of production or the one who has capital and relies on imports for its consumption? 

'Money' hold value as long as someone else believes they can be exchanged for something material or other value. 

But i guess smartest guys in the big banks might be losing some of that perspective. Maybe you should reach out to Zoltan or Jaimie or James and tell them all the information they are missing? 

[Malcador]

21 hours ago, HoonDing said:

Some foreign cannon fodder ran afoul of Russian rockets in Lwów.

What did they expect, really?

Was interesting to think about how veterans of Western conflicts would react to this, in their combat tours they've likely never had to deal with artillery and airstrikes incoming.  Must be a bit jarring to not be in a one sided fight

[Elerond]

46 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

I'll ask again, who has more economic power, one who has natural resources and means of production or the one who has capital and relies on imports for its consumption? 

'Money' hold value as long as someone else believes they can be exchanged for something material or other value. 

But i guess smartest guys in the big banks might be losing some of that perspective. Maybe you should reach out to Zoltan or Jaimie or James and tell them all the information they are missing? 

Consumer. They can change their economy much easier than the producer.

There is reason why USA is rich where countries that produce goods and natural resources it use are poor

Edited March 14, 2022 by Elerond

[Darkpriest]

23 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Consumer. They can change their economy much easier than the producer.

There is reason why USA is rich where countries that produce goods and natural resources it use are poor

Then why Germany did not stop buying oil and gas from Russia immediatelly, if it is purely consumer driven? 

Or maybe ask people, if given a choice, would they prefer a loaf of bread or a 100 USD bill if they are hungry? 

[Darkpriest]

Hah and it seems my comment about a choice between food and usd bill might be more accurate by the minute. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/russia-may-ban-wheat-rye-barley-and-corn-exports-until-june-30