Ukraine conflict - im Westen nichts Neues

[Malcador]

7 hours ago, Gorth said:

Ever heard of the Spanish Civil War?

While the Axis forces supporting Franco's Fascist army were regular military, a large number of volunteers (including Russians) fought for the Republicans. Lots of them civilians having been shown how to remove the safety from a gun.

Yes, no pasaran.

Just not sure if they have time.  Well unless it plans to be mostly foreign SF, hah.

 

[kanisatha]

Re. Kharkiv or any other major Ukrainian city, weren't we also told Kyiv was going to fall two nights ago? The presence of Russian troops or vehicles in some location does not mean the battle has been lost there. It is precisely in dense urban areas that the Ukrainians will be at their best, because they are mostly light infantry with defensive weapons, they are local, and they have the support of the population, even as Russia's advantages in armor, air support, and heavy offensive weapons will be dulled or blunted.

I agree that Russia's battle plan was likely to take control of territory from Kyiv to Odesa and everything east of that line and then demand unconditional surrender. But now they realize that even if they win the conventional battle (which is eventually very likely), they are going to face a full-on and debilitating insurgency, and the Ukrainians themselves understand this and therefore will not surrender. This is what is driving Putin apoplectic and making him more and more irrational.

[kanisatha]

As for the quality of the Russian forces, it is my understanding that the Russian drive from Belarus to Kyiv was led by the 2nd (Tamanskaya) Guards Tank Brigade, fully equipped with the T-14 Armata, as part of Russia's 1st Guards Tank Army. These are Russia's most elite heavy formations. If Ukrainian light infantry, fighting without much armor of their own and no fires support or air support, are able to even slow down the advance of 1 GTA, that does represent a huge defeat for the Russians. In a battle with NATO forces, even the Polish army would defeat them in detail because they would receive massive fires and air support from the US.

[kanisatha]

Since NATO has now officially activated the NATO Response Force for deployment to Poland and the Baltics, and the US and UK have both declared that NATO needs to rethink its force structure in Eastern Europe going forward, I hope the US will expand V (US) Corps (Forward) currently in Poland to a full corps with at least two heavy divisions. And then we should reactivate the 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment and stick them in the Suwalki Gap, where they can stand watch like they did in the Fulda Gap for forty years.

[Katphood]

Yeah, if anything, this war showed that the bear has lost his touch. The EU countries alone could decimate the Russian army within days if it weren't for nukes. 

[Malcador]

Seems Ukraine's winning handily enough without the need for a no fly zone or more direct NATO support, strange they keep asking for it.

[rjshae]

2 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Seems Ukraine's winning handily enough without the need for a no fly zone or more direct NATO support, strange they keep asking for it.

It's a little early for statements like "winning handily enough". Don't assume we know everything.

[kirottu]

43 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

I consider the news that Putin has upped his nuclear forces alert status to be more evidence that things are not going so rosily for them on the ground. 

What a time to be alive.

[Malcador]

14 minutes ago, rjshae said:

It's a little early for statements like "winning handily enough". Don't assume we know everything.

All I keep seeing are wrecked columns, annihilated groups, Russian forces demoralized, etc., heh.

Apparently the An-225 got damaged in the fighting (surprised it was still there given the tension), Ukraine government saying it was destroyed, Antonov says they don't know. 

Shame

Edited February 27, 2022 by Malcador

[xzar_monty]

15 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Since NATO has now officially activated the NATO Response Force for deployment to Poland and the Baltics, and the US and UK have both declared that NATO needs to rethink its force structure in Eastern Europe going forward, I hope the US will expand V (US) Corps (Forward) currently in Poland to a full corps with at least two heavy divisions. And then we should reactivate the 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment and stick them in the Suwalki Gap, where they can stand watch like they did in the Fulda Gap for forty years.

A personal question prompted by your comments: what is your speciality? Obviously it's quite all right if you don't want to answer, but I am genuinely interested to know the background these comments are coming from.

Oh, I very much appreciate your comments. Just to make my stance clear.

[Sarex]

4 minutes ago, Malcador said:

All I keep seeing are wrecked columns, annihilated groups, Russian forces demoralized, etc., heh.

I saw a video of a tank being destroyed in the morning titled "Ukrainian tank being destroyed", in the afternoon that same video was titled "Russian tank being destroyed". Until this situation is over and we see the end result, it's going to be very hard for us to know what is happening.

I know we have a couple of armchair generals here that seem to have spycams in Putin's office and are following his emotional state and mood by the hour, but I wouldn't hold my breath on any news coming out of Russia and Ukraine being true.

[Malcador]

3 minutes ago, Sarex said:

I saw a video of a tank being destroyed in the morning titled "Ukrainian tank being destroyed", in the afternoon that same video was titled "Russian tank being destroyed". Until this situation is over and we see the end result, it's going to be very hard for us to know what is happening.

I know we have a couple of armchair generals here that seem to have spycams in Putin's office and are following his emotional state and mood by the hour, but I wouldn't hold my breath on any news coming out of Russia and Ukraine being true.

Well, mostly just skimming all these "OSINT" people for it.

In a more light hearted tone, some amusing media coverage

 

 

[kanisatha]

10 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

A personal question prompted by your comments: what is your speciality? Obviously it's quite all right if you don't want to answer, but I am genuinely interested to know the background these comments are coming from.

Oh, I very much appreciate your comments. Just to make my stance clear.

Happy to answer. I'm a professor with a doctorate in international relations. My academic focus is in international security and conflict, and international rivalries. My research focus has been on nuclear weapons proliferation, but in recent years has shifted to the emerging US-China rivalry. Prior to my doctorate, my bachelors and masters degrees are in aerospace engineering.

Separately from my academic interests, I've long had a passion for WW2 and Cold War history and military affairs. I was in my senior year in college when the Berlin Wall came down, and at that time knew the full orders of battle of NATO and Warsaw Pact forces in Europe by heart. Used to do a ton of Cold War wargaming with my friends in college.

[HoonDing]

There's very few news about proceedings in the south/south east near Mariupol, because the Ukrainians are getting hammered there.

Tokmak air base is... kinda important?

Edited February 27, 2022 by HoonDing

[kirottu]

7 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Happy to answer. I'm a professor with a doctorate in international relations. My academic focus is in international security and conflict, and international rivalries. My research focus has been on nuclear weapons proliferation, but in recent years has shifted to the emerging US-China rivalry. Prior to my doctorate, my bachelors and masters degrees are in aerospace engineering.

Wow, we're almost exactly alike. If just had any degrees on anything or any relevant experience, it would be like looking at the mirror. 

[BruceVC]

35 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Seems Ukraine's winning handily enough without the need for a no fly zone or more direct NATO support, strange they keep asking for it.

Dont worry Malc you will get your military  Russian victory against the vastly under resourced Ukrainian army and the fact the Russian military has much more troops and military hardware. No need to be worried that a no-fly zone would make things more even. Also remember Russia is use to levelling cities to the ground with their air force from miles  up in the air

So this delay is because now the Russian military is fighting on the ground without the benefit of their air force and destroying the entire city where the enemy is. Like we witnessed in Grozny and Aleppo

 

[xzar_monty]

@kanisatha: Thank you!

[Elerond]

48 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Seems Ukraine's winning handily enough without the need for a no fly zone or more direct NATO support, strange they keep asking for it.

Fighting when your side does not have air support and other side has, is hellish.

[pmp10]

28 minutes ago, Malcador said:

All I keep seeing are wrecked columns, annihilated groups, Russian forces demoralized, etc., heh.

Selective reporting and wishful thinking that results in misidentification.

7 minutes ago, HoonDing said:

There's very few news about proceedings in the south/south east near Mariupol, because the Ukrainians are getting hammered there.

To be fair position of Mariupol is not really defensible. 

16 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

I'm a professor with a doctorate in international relations. My academic focus is in international security and conflict, and international rivalries.

I'm sorry but is this allowed?
I thought we were all armchair-experts only?  

[xzar_monty]

Täällähän on ihan saatanasti suomalaisia juuri nyt.

Translation: an awful lot of Finns taking part in the conversation right now.

Actually, no wonder, given where that delightful country is situated...

[BruceVC]

11 minutes ago, kirottu said:

Wow, we're almost exactly alike. If just had any degrees on anything or any relevant experience, it would be like looking at the mirror. 

So you guys are alt-accounts of each other, glad someone is finally being honest about who is real and who is not 

I appreciate the honesty 

[Elerond]

2 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Täällähän on ihan saatanasti suomalaisia juuri nyt.

Translation: an awful lot of Finns taking part in the conversation right now.

Actually, no wonder, given where that delightful country is situated...

There has been always lot of Finns (I think 6-7 on entire forum)

[Pidesco]

Xard, Kirottu and Musopticon are the original Finns. Only Kirottu remains. 

[BruceVC]

1 minute ago, Pidesco said:

Xard, Kirottu and Musopticon are the original Finns. Only Kirottu remains. 

Thats not a nice thing to suggest, I am sure @Elerond is ethnically pure blood  Finnish?

[Malcador]

24 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Dont worry Malc you will get your military  Russian victory against the vastly under resourced Ukrainian army and the fact the Russian military has much more troops and military hardware. No need to be worried that a no-fly zone would make things more even. Also remember Russia is use to levelling cities to the ground with their air force from miles  up in the air

So this delay is because now the Russian military is fighting on the ground without the benefit of their air force and destroying the entire city where the enemy is. Like we witnessed in Grozny and Aleppo

 

My military victory? Hm ok.  My statement was a bit tongue in cheek, too. Although not sure how realistic a no fly zone by NATO is, isn't all that defensive in nature for their members.