Coronavirus 666: This is one sick thread!!!

[rjshae]

On 3/18/2022 at 10:28 AM, Totally not Gorgon said:

the math looks like this :

you know you are going to be exposed, you can't expect to avoid Omicron by isolating.

If you are exposed while your vaccine protection is the strongest. 1-3 months after your 3rd shot, you have mitigated the chance of severe covid by as much as you are able. 

The longer you avoid getting COVID-19, the better the medical technology used to treat it and the more likely that an ICU bed will be available. Risk-wise, it still pays to isolate.

[Totally not Gorgon]

But you can't, not with Omicron BA2, it's many times more transmissible than the measles. The wave is much shorter and peaks much higher. Which means, at it's peak, unless you can literally stay at home for 1-2 months, you will be exposed. 

[Totally not Gorgon]

I don't imagine medical technology will change drastically in the space of a few months. You can, however, make use of an additional 10 -15% protection if you are exposed before the effect tapers off. 

The good news is that you come out of the omicron wave with very high immunity across the whole of society. 

 

[Totally not Gorgon]

I should note that this is completely analogous to authorities picking the exact right moment to administer a booster shot, for instance. It's calculated to maximize protection while the threat is the highest. 

[rjshae]

2 hours ago, Totally not Gorgon said:

But you can't, not with Omicron BA2, it's many times more transmissible than the measles. The wave is much shorter and peaks much higher. Which means, at it's peak, unless you can literally stay at home for 1-2 months, you will be exposed. 

You're trying to turn a relative risk into an absolute. Getting some exposure doesn't mean you're going to catch it, it just increases your odds. Yes you can still minimize your risk and not live like a hermit.

[Totally not Gorgon]

Your antibodies get a firmware update whether you get sick or not. I believe the odds are around better than even, 75%, I can't remember, of not becoming sick if you had 3 shots. At this time at least where I'm at, there is no word of another shot. 

One should also remember that people who have been vaccinated 3 times are more likely to die from regular flu, than Omicron. That's a different level of risk calculation than we have been used to. 

[rjshae]

Second Covid booster shields elderly but wears off rapidly

Quote

A fourth dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine lowered rates of Covid-19 among the elderly but the protection against infection appeared short-lived, a large study in Israel has found. The second booster’s protection against infection dwindled after four weeks, Israeli researchers showed in their study published on Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine. Protection against severe illness did not wane during the six weeks after the dose but more follow-up study was needed to evaluate its longer-term protection, the researchers said. The study on 1.3 million people aged 60 and older looked at data from the Israeli Ministry of Health database between Jan 10 and March 2, when the Omicron variant was predominant.

Cases are on the rise again, so it looks like people may be wearing masks for a while longer.

[Gfted1]

It feels like Im the only one around that still wears a mask in public (even my wife stopped wearing hers). Last weekend I was standing in the deli line, and nobody else was wearing a mask, and I couldnt help but wonder if they think I have a compromised immune system.  Its a "muscle memory" for me that I have to break.

[BruceVC]

I know this is a "boring " subject and we all want to move on from the pandemic and the idea of constantly wearing masks and hearing about unnecessary lockdowns is annoying and unconvincing 

But I still recommend getting a booster, one of my brothers got the virus this week. He has very bad flu symptoms and his whole body is aching, he sleeps all day  and now his whole family cant come to this mountain resort that we going to for Easter 

He didnt take a booster but his wife did and she is asymptomatic and feels fine. So vaccines still seem the  most effective way to prevent severe Corona or worse symptoms  

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

On 4/7/2022 at 10:16 AM, Gfted1 said:

It feels like Im the only one around that still wears a mask in public (even my wife stopped wearing hers). Last weekend I was standing in the deli line, and nobody else was wearing a mask, and I couldnt help but wonder if they think I have a compromised immune system.  Its a "muscle memory" for me that I have to break.

Sometimes I'll see a lot of folks wearing one, and other times it'll just be me. It's nice to have because in addition to not spreading the rona, it confuses AI identifying software and can hide stubble if I didn't shave.

[Hurlshort]

Whelp, after two years of successful dodge rolls, I finally got the rona. My whole family had it a few months back, so hopefully they are safe from me spreading it. I picked it up at school or hockey, I guess. So far it is just a bad head cold with some chills. Bleh.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

1 hour ago, Hurlsnot said:

Whelp, after two years of successful dodge rolls, I finally got the rona. My whole family had it a few months back, so hopefully they are safe from me spreading it. I picked it up at school or hockey, I guess. So far it is just a bad head cold with some chills. Bleh.

Take it easy man, when I has it there were a few false upswings.

[InsaneCommander]

23 hours ago, KP wants Blue Velvet said:

Sometimes I'll see a lot of folks wearing one, and other times it'll just be me. It's nice to have because in addition to not spreading the rona, it confuses AI identifying software and can hide stubble if I didn't shave.

I somehow acquired the habit of grimacing at work when I'm displeased with something. That will be a problem when I stop wearing masks.

[BruceVC]

This virus is rearing its head again in SA, we just got back from our mountain Easter getaway and one of my brothers after flying  back to Cpt started getting flu symptoms and he tested positive. I drove up with him for 2 hours in a car and we spent the whole Easter weekend together. And yesterday my sister started complaining about a sore throat yet her fiancé  feels fine. We now all flying back to Cpt today because we dont want to stuck in Durban recovering from Covid

I feel fine but incubation takes 2-7 days normally so I will know in the next week or so

But next week I was supposed to go to JHB for 5 days with friends to stay in a tourist town called Dullstroom which is renowned for trout fishing and hiking. I decided to cancel that holiday trip because of the potential of having the virus and spreading it to  my JHB friends

 

 

[Gfted1]

Rub some dirt on it and get back in the game.  

[BruceVC]

My sister has the virus and her fiancé and so has my brothers wife. This new variant is highly contagious and almost impossible to avoid exposure if you want a semblance of a normal life in the sense you socialize in bars or at friends houses, you see family and friends for meals, you work at different customers, you have social activities like going to gym or being part of sports clubs or you travel 

 

[Gfted1]

8 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

My sister has the virus and her fiancé and so has my brothers wife. This new variant is highly contagious and almost impossible to avoid exposure if you want a semblance of a normal life in the sense you socialize in bars or at friends houses, you see family and friends for meals, you work at different customers, you have social activities like going to gym or being part of sports clubs or you travel 

 

Have you gotten tested yet?

[BruceVC]

1 minute ago, Gfted1 said:

Have you gotten tested yet?

No, I am waiting for 7 days because I could be in incubation period and a test would be pointless if Im not showing symptoms 

[Gfted1]

16 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

No, I am waiting for 7 days because I could be in incubation period and a test would be pointless if Im not showing symptoms 

That makes sense, its only been two days. Iirc, youre vaccinated, but what about your family members? Are they all unvaxxed or is this a stupendous case of multiple breakthrough infections?

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

That makes sense, its only been two days. Iirc, youre vaccinated, but what about your family members? Are they all unvaxxed or is this a stupendous case of multiple breakthrough infections?

Yes I had my booster and the rest of my family did as well. It doesn't last very long this variant in SA for most people. Normally 3-4 days of flu symptoms like fatigue and feverish. I think it would be worse if people weren't vaccinated?

I think its spreading because we have stopped our lockdowns so its inevitable and this new variant is the most contagious 

 

[Gfted1]

8 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

I think it would be worse if people weren't vaccinated?

Thats what is being trumpeted but I think thats mostly for the old and infirm. Every person Ive know that caught the virus (with or without vaccination) reported that the infection was a nothingburger.

[LadyCrimson]

In our tiny section of Sac. area, I think at this point I only see ... "pulls number out of hat" ... 10%-15% of folks still wearing masks. Basically as soon as it wasn't a requirement most people stopped. Hubby kept commenting on it (how few people were wearing) over and over and over and I finally was all "I take it you're tired of wearing one and want it to be socially acceptable, not just legal, to not. Just don't, then." 

I occasionally still wear one just because they also help with my pollen/dust allergies on bad days, but most of the time not, now. I do like the feeling of more anonymity with one on, tho. Pfft.

Edited April 21, 2022 by LadyCrimson

[Gfted1]

On 4/20/2022 at 11:40 PM, LadyCrimson said:

I occasionally still wear one just because they also help with my pollen/dust allergies on bad days, but most of the time not, now.

Im not allergic to anything but the N95 masks work really well for keeping the dust out of my nose whenever I clean the cat litter.

[rjshae]

New modeling shows that 'shielding' strategies instead of lockdowns would have led to tens of thousands more deaths

Quote

Shielding strategies or "focused protection", as advocated for in the Great Barrington Declaration, would have been impossible to implement in practice and would have likely led to far worse outcomes. Even if implemented perfectly, the modeling reveals that allowing the infection to spread through less vulnerable groups prior to vaccination would have overwhelmed health care capacity in the UK and led to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths. In reality, practical considerations would have meant that large numbers of vulnerable people who were supposed to be protected would also have died.

I remember speculation about this approach early in the pandemic, so this is an interesting finding. It's all computer modelling, of course, but still a plausible outcome.

[Gorth]

I suspect a combination of lockdowns, mask/distancing measures and vaccinations in particular put the brakes on the original and the delta variants (which appears much deadlier than the current mutation). Maybe the Omicron helps keeping peoples immune systems on their toes, offering the nebulous "herd immunity" because of the genetic similarities between the variants?

(I take my booster shots just in case, every 4 months and I do wear mask on public transport/taxi/uber etc. because it's required by the companies operating the services)