Coronavirus : Country readiness

[Gromnir]

National Strategy for Pandemic Preparedness

a decade before gate's ted talk.

HA! Good Fun!

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, 213374U said:

Not maths, but "maths". You are going off a simplistic assumption where the susceptible fraction never decreases and so the doubling rate remains constant forever until 100% infection is reached. It just doesn't work like that. Just like "the surge multiplying death rate" doesn't work like that either, because you are not looking at a general population sample, mechanical ventilation isn't a requirement in the overwhelming majority of cases, as much as 50% of infections may be asymptomatic, and rate of positive tests is not the same as rate of infection.

Yep. Surge is important in the general population because a large to very proportion of the general population has some sort of adverse risk factors- they are obese, they are old, they are unfit, they don't eat well, have diabetes, cancer, asthma, smoke etc etc. None of those factors apply to the average sailor on a US air craft carrier at least in theory; and very few apply to anyone on it full stop. That leaves, essentially, those with an unfortunate generic or inherent vulnerability to covid19* alone as the proportion of ship's complement that is susceptible in a potentially fatal manner.

The 'surge' that happens in civilian populations happens because all those old, weak, and unlucky people get sick at the same time and all need ICU, ventilators, etc, at the same time. If you're young and fit then the likelihood of needing that specialist care at all is minute, perhaps as few as a couple of dozen on a ship the size of the Roosevelt. For the vast majority of the young, fit, otherwise healthy people that make up the crew of a USN ship covid19 really is 'a bit of a flu' or even less- though of course the actual factual flu is an extremely unpleasant experience with potential long term consequences for a minority, even if you're not at risk of dying.

There would also never be 100% infection reached, except in theory. Even with covid19 being a novel virus some people will be functionally immune to it through the genetic lottery that is our immune system (a bit different from asymptomatic carriers).

It's still very sensible getting everyone off the ship because they really aren't set up for large numbers of sick people, and even if they aren't in a life threatening situation a proportion of victims will be badly effected in ways that may not be directly fatal but are still dangerous- myocarditis, damaged lungs and other organs etc. You still need to allow for proper isolation which would be very difficult on a warship.

*if it were to go full 'Spanish' flu the situation would reverse and young healthy fit people would actually be more susceptible than older people. But it hasn't gone full 'Spanish' flu, and we'd better hope it never does.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Zoraptor

[213374U]

4 hours ago, Gromnir said:

look, you made a terrible analogy to cruise ships. no reason not to own it and move forward. 

~2:30 is where the nice lady gives you a tour of racks on an aircraft carrier.

That looks a lot like the crew quarters on a cruise ship. Past outbreaks on ships simply haven't reached the epic proportions you suggest. I'd guess there are procedures in place to deal with outbreaks aboard warships, and again, the rate of positive tests does not equal the rate of spread. So on one hand you have cases of outbreaks aboard ships and estimates of IFR based on data, and on the other you have... Gromnir's apocalyptic hunches.

Ok.

So, whatever, I have neither the time nor the inclination.

Edited April 6, 2020 by 213374U
do as I say etc

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

What about his illegitimate half brother, Fanfiction

Like all half-brothers, legitimate or not, we don't think about them unless they have money.

[Gromnir]

1 hour ago, 213374U said:

That looks a lot like the crew quarters on a cruise ship. Past outbreaks on ships simply haven't reached the epic proportions you suggest.

which would be a worthwhile observation if such were the only quarters available to passengers and crew on cruise ships during a freaking pandemic. unlike an aircraft carrier, passengers and crew on a cruise ship can be quartered so as to maintain social distancing to a much greater degree than an aircraft carrier. (genuine can't believe you are still arguing this point.) much like hotels, cruise ships rare face 100% occupancy.  assuming ship captains would be idiots and not space out passengers and crew as much as possible as soon as dangers o' transmissibility tween persons became apparent is your hunch, yes? a cruise ship is a giant freaking floating hotel. the one thing it has in abundance is living quarters for gawd's sake.

again, doubling o' infections on the roosevelt were progressing at a rate o' every two days for approximate ten days. assume even a mere 70% eventual infection rate for a novel virus and you are nevertheless hitting multiple thousand infected in another ten days.  anticipate some kinda significant slowdown 'fore a majority o' the crew is infected is a hunch on #s part.

aside: +30% o' enlisted men is smokers, far 'bove the national average. the military does need to step up their efforts to decrease smoking. 

and again cruise ship analogous to aircraft carrier is the worst coronavirus argument we seen outside a trump presser and/or fox. why you would keep plugging away at that point so tenacious is genuine baffling... and just be thankful we don't link the frozen song.

more relevant

Desperate for medical equipment, states encounter a beleaguered national stockpile

"Anecdotally, there are wide differences, and they do not appear to follow discernible political or geographic lines. Democratic-leaning Massachusetts, which has had a serious outbreak in Boston, has received 17 percent of the protective gear it requested, according to state leaders. Maine requested a half-million N95 specialized protective masks and received 25,558 — about 5 percent of what it sought. The shipment delivered to Colorado — 49,000 N95 masks, 115,000 surgical masks and other supplies — would be “enough for only one full day of statewide operations,” Rep. Scott R. Tipton (R-Colo.) told the White House in a letter several days ago.

"The Federal Emergency Management Agency inherited control of the stockpile barely a week ago from HHS. Lizzie Litzow, a FEMA spokeswoman, acknowledged the agency maintains a spreadsheet tracking each state’s request and shipments. Litzow declined repeated requests to release the details, saying the numbers are in flux.

"Florida has been an exception in its dealings with the stockpile: The state submitted a request on March 11 for 430,000 surgical masks, 180,000 N95 respirators, 82,000 face shields and 238,000 gloves, among other supplies — and received a shipment with everything three days later, according to figures from the state’s Division of Emergency Management. It received an identical shipment on March 23, according to the division, and is awaiting a third."

well, ok then.

HA! Good Fun!

Edited April 6, 2020 by Gromnir

[Bartimaeus]

It's a critical swing state. It's Trump. Enough said.

Administration didn't start ordering critical supplies until mid-March.

[ktchong]

 

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by ktchong

[Gromnir]

3 hours ago, Bartimaeus said:

It's a critical swing state. It's Trump. Enough said.

Administration didn't start ordering critical supplies until mid-March.

similar, until as late as march 17, mass shipments o' critical supplies were leaving the US on a daily basis. 

now keep in mind am understanding why some such foreign aid would be advisable as covid-19 is a global pandemic, however, there were a sharp change o' course in fed behavior in mid-march, which at least suggests awareness or situation changed. 

if trump were genuine aware from early january when he were first getting briefings, then why the sudden and abrupt changes in orders and shipments beginning in march?

edit:

Exclusive: The Military Knew Years Ago That a Coronavirus Was Coming

"Denis Kaufman, who served as head of the Infectious Diseases and Countermeasures Division at the Defense Intelligence Agency from 2014 to 2017, stressed that US intelligence had been well-aware of the dangers of coronaviruses for years. (Kaufman retired from his decades-long career in the military in December of 2017.)

"“The Intelligence Community has warned about the threat from highly pathogenic influenza viruses for two decades at least. They have warned about coronaviruses for at least five years,” Kaufman explained in an interview.

"“There have been recent pronouncements that the coronavirus pandemic represents an intelligence failure…. it’s letting people who ignored intelligence warnings off the hook.”"

am gonna concede we have not read the entire report, but will get to it. couldn't help but notice how the background portion were almost a recital o' the bush speech we shared a bit earlier in the thread. 

HA! Good Fun!

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by Gromnir

[Raithe]

MassDevice - MedTronic publically shares Ventilator IP and designs to help combat shortages

[213374U]

A Tiger at Bronx Zoo Tests Positive for COVID-19

[Hurlshort]

14 minutes ago, 213374U said:

A Tiger at Bronx Zoo Tests Positive for COVID-19

The Tiger King memes based on that story are off the hook.

[Skazz]

^ When the virus hit Poland, there was a mass hysteria with people swarming vet offices in order to euthanize their pets. They were afraid that there was a chance of contracting the virus from their dogs and cats.

I really, really hope that this news will not cause a repeat of that.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Skazz

[Hurlshort]

Boris Johnson just went into intensive care. Crazy.

I'm also watching Gavin Newsome do a press conference. I think he has been the most aggressive governor in the country on this, and it is going to give him a lot of political equity when this is over. Quite a change in tone watching his press conference compared to the Trump ones.

[Skarpen]

3 hours ago, Skazz said:

^ When the virus hit Poland, there was a mass hysteria with people swarming vet offices in order to euthanize their pets. They were afraid that there was a chance of contracting the virus from their dogs and cats.

I really, really hope that this news will not cause a repeat of that.

Stop spreading fake news. There was no such thing:

https://oko.press/pan-przyszedl-z-psem-z-odrabana-glowa-eutanazja-zwierzat-z-powodu-koronawirusa-to-fejk/
(sorry evryone else that the link is in polish, but I doubt this was covered in worlds media)

[Skazz]

23 minutes ago, Skarpen said:

Stop spreading fake news. There was no such thing:

https://oko.press/pan-przyszedl-z-psem-z-odrabana-glowa-eutanazja-zwierzat-z-powodu-koronawirusa-to-fejk/
(sorry evryone else that the link is in polish, but I doubt this was covered in worlds media)

Oh, that's good to know then. I was kind of worried about the pets in question.

Thank you.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Skazz

[Gromnir]

Read: Federal watchdog warns of 'severe' hospital shortages

Government watchdog: Hospitals face severe shortages of medical gear, confusing guidance from government

Ann Maxwell, assistant inspector general for HHS, said she was startled by what she heard from the hospital directors and the findings detailed in the report.

"It is unprecedented," Maxwell said in an interview.

"I think one moment that stands out for me is when I was talking to a hospital administrator and he told me that he had staff in the hospital out trying to procure masks and gloves from auto part shops, from home supply stores, from beauty salons, from art supply stores," Maxwell said.

"I was just taken aback."

[BruceVC]

12 hours ago, 213374U said:

A Tiger at Bronx Zoo Tests Positive for COVID-19

I am sorry I didnt mention this earlier but I have seen how badly hit Spain has been, I downloaded the video with all the people clapping the medics as they went to work....I found video to be both inspirational and haunting. Spain has been featured on CNN but its been bad news around the fatality rate 

What is the status and how is your family holding up ?

[213374U]

Not so hot because, shockingly to many, our public health system has gone down the ****ter after years of cuts (and then power transfers to regional governments who are even worse) by politicians of both colors. Almost unimaginable amounts of incompetence have resulted in basic constitutional rights being suspended, in an unprecedented overreach by the government since democracy was installed 40 years ago. Worst of all is a vast majority actually support this because they are scared out of their minds. I wish I could say I'm disappointed, but I think I completely lost that ability about a decade ago.

Personally I'm fine, but no doubt that will change as the government crashes this economy with no survivors. Thanks for asking though.

[BruceVC]

32 minutes ago, 213374U said:

Not so hot because, shockingly to many, our public health system has gone down the ****ter after years of cuts (and then power transfers to regional governments who are even worse) by politicians of both colors. Almost unimaginable amounts of incompetence have resulted in basic constitutional rights being suspended, in an unprecedented overreach by the government since democracy was installed 40 years ago. Worst of all is a vast majority actually support this because they are scared out of their minds. I wish I could say I'm disappointed, but I think I completely lost that ability about a decade ago.

Personally I'm fine, but no doubt that will change as the government crashes this economy with no survivors. Thanks for asking though.

Im sure I will be getting it because of people I contacted who now one guy has it but Im waiting for symptoms because SA is utterly under resourced so I dont want to use any tests. Its strange for us because we always see details from Spain and Italy and its also depressing because we know how these countries love the social functions and yet people now ensure they keep inside 

You can get the virus but 40 % of people dont develop symptoms so hopefully that is what we get if we get it.  Finally one of the documentaries is about the medical staff working in Spain and again its quite emotional but also I am very proud of how  many people just go out every day and they work with the sick.....they real heroes 

You not alone in your situation and we are thinking of you guys , many places are 2 weeks behind so  keep safe and there will be a better day for all of us.....I am starting to already commit to things I use to sometimes cancel because I was hangover or lazy.....like hikes and meals with families and friends. I feel lazy not going out  

 

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by BruceVC

[Raithe]

Nerbot - Free 3d printable Darth Vader n95 mask

Quote

If you were looking for a good mask pattern to use with your 3D printer and you love Star Wars then we may have just the thing for you. It’s a free pattern for an N95 mask that you can use with a filter. Obviously it’s not something you should use for complete protection but it is here to help.

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Raithe

[Raithe]

[Gfted1]

U.S. health officials say death toll may fall short of most dire projections.  

[Amentep]

New thread -