Politics and world news

[ShadySands]

https://www.salon.com/2020/01/10/trump-privately-admits-he-killed-soleimani-under-pressure-from-upcoming-impeachment-trial-report/amp

PS I haven't looked into this much but that's crazy, but believable and not really unexpected, if true.

Also

https://amp.businessinsider.com/trump-tried-failed-kill-another-iran-official-same-day-soleimani-2020-1

Edited January 11, 2020 by ShadySands

[BruceVC]

On 1/9/2020 at 10:39 PM, Volourn said:

Iranian army:  Goes out of way to not kill any Amerikans  even while attacking them.... yet blows up a civilian plane full of everyone BUT Amerikans. Like I said befoire, the biggest threat to Iranian civilians is Iran gov't. If this is true.   IF.

 

volo this is a valid observation around the actions and or decisions we see from the Iranian government. There behavior on certain things may seem inconsistent with the outcomes you would assume they would want , in the last 15 years  we have seen this but in this case it make sense

One of the positive realities about geopolitics nowadays is how many people cannot understand the way Trump thinks or how significant his tweets are as real policies views  ....he constantly operates in his own way around presidential decorum and what US presidents do say and or dont say in public. Of course  he also has his real positive things he supports and says like his funding for the US military so he isnt all bad but due to his general  unorthodox comments and things he says its very hard for most non-English countries where Trump has focused his attention to know when he is being serious about threats and also how to intimidate him

This killing of the general was an unexpected move by the USA but definitely not unwarranted or without justification. The USA has never responded to any attack on there soldiers or embassies since 1979.The Iran hardliners response  despite all there normal theater, bombast and general anti-American rhetoric is reduced in certain ways but most importantly they dont  want to provoke Trump and cause him to now attack Iran directly. So they launched the  missiles as a " response " but they were designed and intended  to not cause any casualties on purpose. The shooting down of the Ukrainian plane was a  mistake .....not surprising considering the tensions in the area

Edited January 11, 2020 by BruceVC

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, ShadySands said:

https://www.salon.com/2020/01/10/trump-privately-admits-he-killed-soleimani-under-pressure-from-upcoming-impeachment-trial-report/amp

PS I haven't looked into this much but that's crazy, but believable and not really unexpected, if true.

Also

https://amp.businessinsider.com/trump-tried-failed-kill-another-iran-official-same-day-soleimani-2020-1

Since so few people read articles it should probably be said that he was looking to beef up support from [Graham types] whom he needed rather than doing it as a direct Wag the Dog type distraction*. That was perhaps balanced by the extremely liberal definition of 'imminent threat' that was used- which turns out to be 'might do something unspecified at some equally unspecified point in the future'- and which actually seem to have annoyed some other R senators.

Trump's claims of multiple embassies being targeted is pretty clearly a load of old bollocks.

2nd one has been known for a while as he was initially and briefly reported as having been killed, but then it got rather swamped by Soleimani being targeted. There was even a suggestion that Soleimani was only targeted because their first target was missed.

And in further unsurprising news Pompeo says that the US won't leave Iraq even if told to.

*The rumour I'd heard previous was that Pompeo pushed hard to hit Soleimani, and Trump wanted to give him a win to stop him resigning. Could very easily be a combination of both.

[Malcador]

Iran admitted they shot down the aircraft by accident.  Funnily some people seriously believe they intentionally shot down the aircraft, huh.

[Bartimaeus]

Summarized on reddit:

"US kills Soleimani after Iranian-backed militias try to pull off Benghazi 2.0. Iran's response?

(1) January 7: During the funeral for Soleimani, in the midst of burning American flags and speakers touting the impending destruction of the United States of America, a panic-driven stampede kills 56 people and injures 200 in Kerman.

(2) January 8: Iran's "hell on Earth" response against the U.S. (Operation Martyr Soleimani) is ultimately a very mild airstrike against U.S. bases with no casualties. Even radical Iranians are left confused at the extremely tepid "retaliation." The Ayatollah's threat of Washington in flames winds up being the most anti-climactic moment in world history since the end of Kill Bill Volume 2.

(3) January 8: After Rouhani condemned the U.S. for its downing of Iran Air Flight 655 on January 6, Iran goes oopsie daisy and shoots down a plane - Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 - killing 176 people, 147 of whom were Iranians, in the process.

(4) January 8: After the airplane goes down, Iran gets extra silly, immediately puts out a statement within 30 minutes of the crash that says, "It was a technical issue. Nothing to see here. Move along now" which immediately makes everyone twice as skeptical.

(5) January 9: The U.S. ultimately responds by announcing even tougher economic sanctions against Iran...and Tehran doesn't respond, ending the 3 day brawl with an embarrassed Iran, 200+ dead Iranians, 0 killed by the U.S., and now Iran can no longer crow about Iran Air Flight 655 for another 3 decades without reminding their own citizens they killed 176 innocent people, mostly Iranians, due to a freak accident while trying to make a flex on the world stage."

I, uh, guess Trump wins this one? Somewhat accidentally? Alright, I guess. Still bad to murder people in other people's airports, especially after asking them to come into talks with you, but this was an incredibly weak response. Maybe there's something to the "lunatic leader is intimidating" factor...

[Elerond]

Accidental downing of flight 752 reminded all sides of consequences of cold war where one side has already is backed to corner and paranoia and they still own air defence which range covers big sunk of Middle East. Meaning that Iran that constantly fears attacks from USA will shot more passenger planes all around Middle East regardless do they intend to do so or not. 

Also this situation gives Iran opportunity to continue their nuclear program with speed that they have in past avoided in fear of consequences, now they already face those consequences regardless. So as Trump strated his fight with Iran because of he hated Obama's nuclear deal, current situation in that light is lose for Trump and efforts to prevent Iran develop nuclear weapons.

So overall it has been lose for everyone, except for those who want to see nuclear apocalypse. 

 

[Chilloutman]

second there is confirmation they are at least close to nukes they are invaded in minutes, so i doubt it

[Skarpen]

7 hours ago, ShadySands said:

https://www.salon.com/2020/01/10/trump-privately-admits-he-killed-soleimani-under-pressure-from-upcoming-impeachment-trial-report/amp

PS I haven't looked into this much but that's crazy, but believable and not really unexpected, if true.

Also

https://amp.businessinsider.com/trump-tried-failed-kill-another-iran-official-same-day-soleimani-2020-1

Heh, let me guess. There were 3 anonymous sources?

I think I should quote you Shady 

On 1/9/2020 at 11:33 PM, ShadySands said:

Volo Shady, it's fake.

 

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Iran admitted they shot down the aircraft by accident.  Funnily some people seriously believe they intentionally shot down the aircraft, huh.

Well if they said so it must be true. They have been nothing but sincere and honest throughout the entire ordeal.

And to be honest if you shoot at the target that turns out to be something else it's neither accidental not unintentional. It's a mistake.

Edited January 11, 2020 by Skarpen
spelling

[Elerond]

Second there is confirmation they're close it is too late. We need only to look cases of North Korea, Pakistan and India to see how fast the final mile in nuclear weapon development is. It is why there has been efforts to stop Iran's uranium enrichment programs. But currently Iran is enriching uranium faster than never before.  Current prediction is that they will have nuclear weapons in 2021 if they want them. So now is time to invade if you want to stop their nuclear weapon program. 

[Chilloutman]

Just now, Elerond said:

Second there is confirmation they're close it is too late. We need only to look cases of North Korea, Pakistan and India to see how fast the final mile in nuclear weapon development is. It is why there has been efforts to stop Iran's uranium enrichment programs. But currently Iran is enriching uranium faster than never before.  Current prediction is that they will have nuclear weapons in 2021 if they want them. So now is time to invade if you want to stop their nuclear weapon program. 

not sure, this is NK, this is almost neighbor of Israel we are talking about. I am sure when there is a chance they can fire nuke they get peppered so hard it would be second Australia in seconds. Not to mention Saudies...

[Elerond]

3 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

not sure, this is NK, this is almost neighbor of Israel we are talking about. I am sure when there is a chance they can fire nuke they get peppered so hard it would be second Australia in seconds. Not to mention Saudies...

Like South Korea and Japan aren't North Korea's neighbors

[Chilloutman]

Just now, Elerond said:

Like South Korea and Japan aren't North Korea's neighbors

Japan have constitution that they cant attack anyone, south korea is scared of conventional bombardment as their capitol is too close to border, but biggest scarecrow in region is China. If NK was not supported by China there would be just a crater instead of NK...

[Zoraptor]

No there wouldn't, because Seoul has ~20 million people and even if DPRK didn't have nukes they certainly did have a whole lot of CW that they'd unapologetically fire at everyone in the vicinity.  RoK wouldn't go after DPRK  because the real world is not a game of Hearts of Iron.

Israel and KSA were both extraordinarily tepid in their response to Soleimani being killed- Israel explicitly said it was a matter between the US and Iran only, KSA sent a note via the Omani ambassador stressing that they were not involved (since it was their Iraqi ambassador and the Iraqi PM he was meant to be meeting)- because Iran even without nukes has proved they (well, still officially the Houthis) can make a horrendous mess of their neighbour's infrastructure. Good luck living in the ME when all your desalination plants and power stations have large holes in them. Same with DPRK. Not the same with Libya, nor Iraq in 2003.

3 hours ago, Bartimaeus said:

2) January 8: Iran's "hell on Earth" response against the U.S. (Operation Martyr Soleimani) is ultimately a very mild airstrike against U.S. bases with no casualties. Even radical Iranians are left confused at the extremely tepid "retaliation." The Ayatollah's threat of Washington in flames winds up being the most anti-climactic moment in world history since the end of Kill Bill Volume 2.
 

Eh, they hit what they aimed at. There is no doubt in anyone's minds that they could have done a lot worse if they'd wanted to. The only real mistake they've made was shooting down the plane. Even if they don't get the US out of Iraq- which they almost certainly will eventually as soon as it can be sold as not running away- they will get about everyone else who will find it politically impossible to ignore being told to leave. It's also further reinforced in many people's minds that the US is warmongering and desperate to start a fight, and caused yet more partisan squabbling in the US.

I'd put the situation as being similar to when Erdogan shot down that Russian Su 24 back in 2016, with Trump in the place of Erdogan. Even if no one liked Putin all RTE's allies thought he was bonkers for doing it despite Erdogan seemingly thinking it was going to get a great reaction. And there was a lot of 'bad' stuff for Russia around that too, no revenge for the pilots getting shot while parachuting, only sanctions on Turkey, rescue helicopter blown up with a missile. Yet 3 years + later pretty much everyone thinks it was a bad mistake by Turkey instead, while Erdogan is claiming it was all a Gulenist plot carried out by coup plotters and designed to discredit him.

[Katphood]

This has to be the single worst 'January' of my life. Come on! It's my birthday on 27th. Can't even have a decent moment of peace in this godforsaken country.

 

If this regime has showed anything to the world, it's that it isn't afraid of killing its own people, since 1700+ Iranians have died by the hands of our dear government in the past 3 months.

 

So, in conclusion: dear Trump, the next time you are trying to avoid impeachment, try and put the spotlight on any country but Iran. These people are nuts...

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Katphood said:

This has to be the single worst 'January' of my life. Come on! It's my birthday on 27th. Can't even have a decent moment of peace in this godforsaken country.

 

If this regime has showed anything to the world, it's that it isn't afraid of killing its own people, since 1700+ Iranians have died by the hands of our dear government in the past 3 months.

 

So, in conclusion: dear Trump, the next time you are trying to avoid impeachment, try and put the spotlight on any country but Iran. These people are nuts...

 I am very sorry for how the conservative, hard line element in Iran unfortunately run the country.

To ensure Iran has the progressive and sustainable future for the majority of its citizens this had to be addressed at some stage.....yes you face some real challengers in the next few years but I absolutely believe Iran will come out it with a government that truly believes in the overall well being of all its citizens and spends much less time concerned with ensuring Shia hegemony in the ME

But the hardliners will need to go and that is something that creates huge concerns with how this will be done and how to do it effectively

Do you mind if if I ask you  question and I will understand if you have no opinion on this topic. Do you think its important and necessary for Iran to fund and aid countries in the ME that  have large  a Shia population. I understand this objective of countering Sunni dominance but its not necessary if you think of possible outcomes as far as what Iran represents. Iran will always be Iran and nothing will change its important history and role it can play in the ME  

 

 

 

[Katphood]

4 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

 Do you mind if if I ask you  question and I will understand if you have no opinion on this topic. Do you think its important and necessary for Iran to fund and aid countries in the ME that  have large  a Shia population. I understand this objective of countering Sunni dominance but its not necessary if you think of possible outcomes as far as what Iran represents. Iran will always be Iran and nothing will change its important history and role it can play in the ME  

 

 

I for one wish we didn't spend that kind of money outside of the coutnry because we need it ourselves. Too many people dealing with poverty because of this issue. The main problem here are Russia and China. You always have to aske yourself: 'where do the hardliners get their support?'

 

China is exchanging oil for chinese products right now(no money or $ involved) with the Iranian government. So long as they have the Iranian regime covered, this ordeal is going to continue.

 

But perhaps the horrifying fact here is that both China and Russia would even benefit more if Iran went to a war with the U.S.

 

That would be the end of both Iran and the U.S, considering how much they could both lose while China and Russia get the upper hand.

[Guard Dog]

@Katphood I am not envious of your situation. Stay safe. I wouldn't worry about an outright war. It's not going to happen. But that does not preclude other bad times. 

[ComradeYellow]

I thought Russia and China were -in comparison- the good guys?

[ktchong]

Here is a little and shortened history lesson of this whole mess between China and Taiwan, and a little tale of how Karma is truly a bitch: After  Taiwan -- aka officially the "Republic of China" -- lost the civil war and retreated to the island, Taiwan was actually in the United Nations between 1945 and  1971, as the official "Re pubic of China".  The "Republic of China" was -- and still is -- Taiwan's formal designation and official name.  Taiwan was a member in the UN, as one of the give permanent UN Security Council, for 26 years as the "legitimate" and "official" representation of CHINA and the CHINESE PEOPLE.  Taiwan regarded itself as the government of all China -- included the mainland.   At the same time, Taiwan called and labeled the China mainland as the "illegitimate" and "rogue" government on the mainland.  The UN accepted Taiwan as the official "China" because Taiwan insisted that it will retake the China mainland from the communist government... WHICH NEVER HAPPENED.  

At that time, China was actually willing to recognize Taiwan -- if only Taiwan was willing to recognize China as a separate country and allow China into the UN.  BUT TAIWAN REFUSED.  Yup, Taiwan had the opportunity to become a separate country, to become independent from China.  All Taiwan had to do was to recognize China as a separate country, and allow China into the UN as a separate country.  BUT TAIWAN REFUSED, because it wanted to isolate China; and Taiwan had the upperhand at the time, and it thought it had the upperhand forever.  Of course, Taiwan used its UNSC powers to put all kinds of tough economic and political sanctions on China, which caused hundreds of millions of death, miseries and suffering happened in China under Mao.  So, was it Mao's fault to millions of Chinese death, or was it Taiwan's sanctions and isolation on China?  Hm... certainly an interesting point to ponder over.

So, after 26 years in 1971, China petitioned to the UN to replace Taiwan as the official, legitimate representative of "China" and the Chinese people.    Many nations in the UN  also thought it was getting silly to wait for Taiwan to "retake China",  and felt that "we really have to have a government that legitimate representation for the Chinese people on the mainland, not some little island that has not ruled China for decades and just wants to put vengeful sanctions to punish and kill Chinese people."  So the UN called for a vote, on UN Resolution 2758.  Taiwan was not permitted to use its UNSC veto, (the first and only time a UNSC was not allowed to use its veto.)  With clever and well-planned political maneuvers, China succeeded -- and replaced Taiwan as the "China" in the UN,  by 76 to 35 votes.  And Taiwan was kicked out of the UN and lost its status as an "independent country".

And, here we are, and here is the irony: now that the situation is reversed, Taiwan is crying and whining about it being "not" China, it being an independent and separate country.   Taiwan certainly did not see things that way back when it was in the UN between 1945 and 1971.  It is only crying and whining right now because it lost the upperhand over China in 1971.  Ah, sweet irony.   Boo-hoo, cry me a river.  Oh, poor baby,  Taiwan does not want to play anymore.  As for China: it still remembers the 26 years when Taiwan put and used all kind of sanctions that killed and starved millions of China.  Taiwan still owes China some blood debts.  There is still a price to be paid.

[ShadySands]

8 hours ago, Skarpen said:

Heh, let me guess. There were 3 anonymous sources?

I think I should quote you Shady 

I haven't read the articles that the linked article references as I don't have access to the WSJ or NYT.

It's why I said I haven't looked very much into it before posting.

[Malcador]

8 hours ago, Chilloutman said:

second there is confirmation they are at least close to nukes they are invaded in minutes, so i doubt it

Well, perceived conformation, remember this the US we're talking about.

[Malcador]

9 hours ago, Skarpen said:

 

Well if they said so it must be true. They have been nothing but sincere and honest throughout the entire ordeal.

And to be honest if you shoot at the target that turns out to be something else it's neither accidental not unintentional. It's a mistake.

It's very, very likely, as it's due incompetence rather their being malicious. Similar situation to the Vincennes, albeit a bit less aggressive by the shooter.  Forget if MH17 was down to rebel idiocy but it also seems likely.

Doesn't really seem like anyone especially important was on the plane, but it being Iran, you'd think they'd just snatch them at the airport.

 

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, ktchong said:

 

And, here we are, and here is the irony: now that the situation is reversed, Taiwan is crying and whining about it being "not" China, it being an independent and separate country.   Taiwan certainly did not see things that way back when it was in the UN between 1945 and 1971.  It is only crying and whining right now because it lost the upperhand over China in 1971.  Ah, sweet irony.   Boo-hoo, cry me a river.  Oh, poor baby,  Taiwan does not want to play anymore.  As for China: it still remembers the 26 years when Taiwan put and used all kind of sanctions that killed and starved millions of China.  Taiwan still owes China some blood debts.  There is still a price to be paid.

ktchong I normally read yours posts and sometimes I find your views to be anti-white or rather your points dont make sense to me but I think  I should be offended but I dont know why ...and sometimes I want to understand what you mean as Im interested in the topic 

Are you supportive of China in the sense you think it has a better, or rather sustainable economic model than the USA? I almost feel embarrassed to suggest that anyone could make a real comparison with the USA and China. I remember for example you once made a post comparing the level of Media professionalism or knowledge between China media and USA....you suggested China is the better example of good news coverage ...I wanted to comment but I forgot 

You immediately lose any reasonable debate about comparing China media to any country with a free media as China  obviously controls the media narrative within China. It works for  them but its not something most people would ever support.....but even more unusual is trying compare state sponsored media integrity to normal media like the USA

 

 

 

 

[Guard Dog]

Bruce do not waste your time. He won't respond. And yes, that guy is a flat out racist. 

[ShadySands]

He's super pro-China and defends everything they do and as GD said, he doesn't really participate in discussions. He just rants and leaves with no conversations to be had.

Bruce, just support Taiwan and Hong Kong and also boycott Mulan