Obama will almost certainly have two terms - however, it's plausible the Republicans will win 2016 even if Dems are still doing well, as happened in 2000. a) the American public is extremely conservative about presidents, even when they suck pretty badly (though there is a breaking point), b) Obama is still polling around the same level now of favourability as he was when he was elected (i.e. really high), c) the American economy will be on the road to recovery by 2012 even under the worst case scenarios, d) whether or not Obama (or even a Democrat) is elected President again or not has little bearing on the House and Senate where these healthcare bills come from.
Hmm, not quite: