Darkpriest
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Posts posted by Darkpriest
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1 hour ago, BruceVC said:
The currency of a country is not the economy or reality of the strength of the economy. Its a factor in the economy and several factors influence the strength of currency but primarily selling and buying and the amount of that currency in circulation.
Russia use to be the 10/11 strongest economy in the world with close to $700 billion dollars in foreign reserve, an actively traded stock exchange and a future as an energy provider to the likes of the EU. This has changed due to Putins War and much of this has been eroded but this erosion takes times and its impossible for any sanctions to have a real impact in less 9-12 months. Sanctions dont work like that when it comes to the economic impact
But the biggest problem Russia is going to face is the disinvestment in its economy and its long-term economic growth. And once the West ends its dependency on Russian energy this is only going worse
Other countries outside of Western countries can invest in Russia but you will find very few global Western companies and their partners ever investing in Russia going forward until Putin and Russia can be trusted again
But to restore this trust its going to take years. But if you interested in the real impact of sanctions on the Russian economy dont worry about the strength of the Ruble but follow the Russian economic quarter data. That's how countries measure economic growth and decline
Here is a link that highlights this and remember we are still not seeing the actual first quarter results but the Russian economy is expected to contract by 8-12%
Meanwhile, CISCO alone lost 40billion in market cap, just because it admited 200mil lost on Russia revenue.
You will see a lot of backtracking on Russia as US and more importantly EU will go into long stagflation period, where food price and energy will be increasing to the point of social unrests, that will be magnified by large migrant waves from African and West Asian countries struck by hunger (Sri-Lanka is a prelude to what will happen on a larger scale in a couple of months)
EU has so much bad debt that it is paralyzing ECB from increasing the rates, because they well know it will crash soverign debt of a couple countries of EURoZone, like Italy.
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2 hours ago, pmp10 said:
How?
I don't think they have any stick to force Ukraine into conceding lost ground.
I guess they could make some EU reconstruction package conditional, but that would meet political backlash.Lets wait until September. We can discuss then.
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4 minutes ago, pmp10 said:
If this will last until Autumn, and weather will continue to decimate food production on top of Ukraine war plus energy prices will start skyrocketing due to China waking up amd OPEC not giving a damn about those leftist/environmentals, you can bet that EU will backtrack everything, unless we aim for our own Arab Spring in EU.
Seems already France, Italy and Germany are in some talks on how to close this diplomatically.
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18 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
You have outdone yourself with this link, its definitely the best example of propaganda and Putin War alternative facts I have ever read. Dont you love the
Ukraine was never about a military win. What is being accomplished is the slow, painful destruction of the European Union (EU) economy, coupled with extraordinary weapons profits for the western military-industrial complex and creeping security rule by those nations’ political elites.
Its so true except for the fact the EU and NATO are more united than ever before with a country like Sweden close to joining NATO after being militarily neutral for the last 200 years or so. I was just expecting the article to say something like " and we all know the Moskva was not sunk and sails proudly on the Black Sea "
The end of Putins War will not be decided by the West but the Ukrainians who are emboldened by the Russian military incompetence and war crimes. Because they have the military advantage at the moment it will take more for them to agree to peace terms than in the early days of the invasion where many of us assumed Russia would defeat the Ukrainians in a few weeks
But thanks for the link, it provided a great laugh
As I said, it sometimes is quite surpriaing what is the level of mind bending that some publicists go through.
This is the original publication.
https://thecradle.co/Article/columns/10277
I understand that ZHs policy is to gather all sorts of PoV, but sometimes the extremes are just too much of 'unreal'
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It's sometimes interesting to read PoV of Russian leaning publicists, who conviniently leave aside or barely comment corruption, sick nepotism, lack of qualifications and brain among russian chain of command, plus **** discipline among soldiers, they do however point a few interesting things in that grandoise of Russia type of writing
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-death-thousand-cuts-where-wests-ukraine-strategy
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@Elerondi believe that US itself killed the Memorandom as not legally biding, but more of a political commitment way before 2014 as it was justifying actions against Belarus.
Although the Memorandum is not legally binding, we take these political commitments seriously and do not believe any U.S. sanctions, whether imposed because of human rights or non-proliferation concerns, are inconsistent with our commitments to Belarus under the Memorandum or undermine them
I can't comment on the UN part and any other agreements, as I have no knowledge on those and really no time to look for some well composed summary of those.
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5 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
Oh I think I understand your point, are you concerned with the way Russian assets and Russian companies have been targeted and or sanctioned by the West and their allies. Its a simple criticism to the term " weaponization of the dollar "
Is that you mean and if so yes I agree some of the sanctions may seem unfair and extreme but individual countries can enforce these types of sanctions legally
For example in the US the decision to freeze Russian Central Bank using dollars I am sure had full Congress approval so its not illegal
Yes, so by that logic legislation approved by Duma in Russia is also not illegal, right?
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In short, when countries start using economics and trade in an instrumental and political fashion, credibilty of all invovled parties crashes.
That's why you will start seeing more and more decoupling from USD and EUR based transactions and much more billateral transactions in currencies of trading partners. This is probably also what might explain a surge in RUB value despite historical heights of USD value.
Edit, for context 1USD is equal to 72.25 RUB which is higjest RUB value in a while, while USD index is at 103.5+++, (JPY and EUR crash against USD)
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2 minutes ago, Malcador said:
Would be interesting to see what non-unilateral sanctions look like.
By that logic, Russia also imposes sanctions. It does not break any contracts, if its stipulated as sanctions and accepted by other members of international community?
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4 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
What do you mean by " Russia didnt attack any countries or seize the assets " ....they invaded Ukraine and decided to unilaterally recreate the borders of a sovereign country
Thats why their are Western sanctions against them, what do you mean by "unilatteral decision to ban trading"
That while such actions would be deemed fine by Ukraine in terms of response to direct hostilities, there is nothing that mandates such a direct and hostile economic action from non-involved parties. Russia did not attack EU or US or UK assets nor did it seize as first actor any assets of such. The US voilated existing contracts of companies first.
By this logic an attack on a soverign nation of Iraq or Syria or Libia or Serbia etc. could be deemed sufficient to have all countries cease doing business with US, EU etc.
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9 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:
No change from what they engaged in in the early 18th century, then. Horrific indeed.
One thing that has definitely changed outside Russia, perhaps irrevocably: nations outside Russia will recognize that all deals with Russia can be regarded as null and void, as Russia will not respect any of them.
That could in theory be said also on US and EU as it was their unilatteral decision to ban trading etc. Despite existing contracts. This is a two way street, so one has to be really careful with all sorts of absolutisms.
Russia did not attack any of the countries or seize the assets of such, which unilaterally broke trade relationships in multiple sectors. They did act in response to economic hostilities.
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So US economy Contracted by 1.4% in terms of annualized GDP... With more inflation pain incoming, how sustainable it will be for US to keep pushing for geopolitical disorder in the midterms election year?
@BruceVCseems I was right 'again' with economic fallout of the ****ty policies of the last couple of years.
Can't wait for FED to pull the liquidity rug from under liquidity starved markets in the stagflatory / recession like conditions.
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45 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:
This is just a Russian propaganda. Austrian chancellor has denied it, and the CEO of SPP (Slovak Gas Industry) has released today this statements:
"This is a unilateral step by Russia, which is testing the European Union's united approach.
For the time being, Slovakia does not expect a unilateral suspension of supplies, because it has fulfilled its contractual obligation in advance by making a payment by the end of May.
I assume that Slovakia will follow the joint action of the EU countries. Slovakia has no reason to pay directly with rubles. The contract declares payment in euros or dollars."
Yeah, BBG had some **** ups today apparently, as they've caused misinformation with the Austrian and Slovak part. Haven't seen Germans openly denounce that.
BBG ****ed up also some data release on Meta, not that it helped FB ticker in any way today...
Interestingly, while the USD is highest in value in 20 years, RUB is gaining value on it still. Not sure who is pumping the RUB because this is beyond actions of what Russia alone could have done with regulations.
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Looks like Germany, Austria and Slovakia folded and are paying in rubbles (plus Hungary) and ten more are setting up rubble accounts.
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36 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
Welcome back Dark " waves"
Ive missed your comments . No need to worry, we still not seeing the collapse of the US economy and the EU
By the way did you read this link, this is the coming reality for the Russian economy. This should concern you immensely
Why would it worry me? Making money on stupidity of others is a great opportunity.
So far I've been correct on bond yields and overpriced **** like Netflix and some other 'disruptive' names.
I've been paying a price on some commodities as China went to a stand still, yet still with that oil is above 100...
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I've been silent for almost a month, to let things go on without my commentary.
A month later, we are on a verge of huge food and energy crisis globally, and significant economic pain.
As for gas cut off, Poland will likely cope withbit by paying extra premius, as the infrastructure and reserves should keep it going safely until end of year, but at a significantly higher cost.
Bulgaria is a different story, and I'm waiting for German reaction. If they will not fold, the economic collapse will make for interesting headlines in Euro zone.
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On 4/11/2022 at 11:24 PM, Gfted1 said:
I hate that too.
I just bought a pair of jeans yesterday and the watch pocket is so big it could probably hold my phone if it wasnt in a case.
I was always sure it was for condoms.... Always in hands reacj.
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Well it looks there will be a lot of punching on Dems and Dems leaning 'media'
1) Psaki moving to one of two media giants that offered her job (at least that's what it seems to be now)
2) "Hunter Biden" from election time and its coverage, and flaging as fake news. Seems GOP is running to investigate election meddling on this angle.
3) Inflation destroying common folk
4) Incoming recession...
It looks like Republicans sweep and possibly Trump 2024 right now...
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2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
@Darkpriest About the Gas and the Russia, today was very interesting program on our radio. There was an information that 70% of income for Russian gas is currently coming from EU, and that any Gas from West Siberia can be exported only to EU through Jamal/Yamal pipeline, because there was never build any pipelines from Siberia to anywhere in the World. So if I correctly understood it, if Russia will stop the Gas flow to EU, they will lose much more than EU. just because of infrastructure, which never existed. Also: Chinese rhethoric might say something different, but they are still quietly imposing some sanctions on Russia as well. https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/as-china-quietly-joins-sanctions-against-russia-xi-might-be-too-rational-to-risk-arming-putin-20220316-p5a54j.html
@Zoraptor A little bit of what is happening to Tatars after Crimea annexation. If you are interested in that topic, feel free to run these links through Google Translate
Both in Slovak Language
Anyhow about the video, which is in breach of ToS, if you want to see an Ukrainian explanation as opposing view on Russian explanation, you can watch this video. Keep in mind, there might be a lot of Ukrainian propaganda involved as well, but I have not seen anyone to post any rebuttal of that video (excluding that anonymous tweet). Make your own conclusion. Video is under spoiler Tag:
And the another addition to the "How incompetent Russian army commanders can be" is the news about Russians digging trenches in Red Forest and running around there completely unprotected
(also keep in mind, this is news from UNIAN, but IIRC some IATA personnel has previously claimed same things.)
About the gas part.
True to an extent. Russia indeed is starting to overflow its storage and will most likely have to stop production for some time from parts of its system, however it does not chanhe that they will still have surpluss domestically and western economies will have serious issues without that gas if switched off today. It also does not change the fact that Russia will hold this resource under their ownership and in worst case scenario it will store value to a lter date until proper investment will be made to connect to eastern/southern side.
Short term, they will lose revenue in curremcies they cannot use, so not really an impactful loss compared to what they experienced on sanctions already.
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3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:
The gas thing will be interesting. Russia will be in breach of contract if it doesn't accept euros (or dollars). Not that contracts matter at all to Russia.
It is currently creating a very interesting image for itself as a country. Something along the lines of, "Don't trust us in anything. We will disregard all of our commitments and signed deals and betray you whenever we can and/or like."
Well, why would they accept currency, which is of no use to them, when being sanctioned? On what legal basis did the other countries seize/freeze Russian assets, if there was no direct hostilities towards those countries?
You can go back and fort on various legal aspects, but in the end it's about who has and who wants to buy
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10 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:
There is no question it will hurt many Western countries. It will probably hurt Russia more, though, given how important the gas money is.
Russia is one of the biggest supplies of palladium in the world. Its gas supply is also very important. Other than that, there's not much. Anyone is free to correct me here.
https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/special-focus/ukraine-crisis/which-countries-rely-on-russian-trade/
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1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:
It is also my understanding that demanding to pay in rubles in a breach of contract from Russia's side. Which of course Russia doesn't give a damn about.
Good luck substituting Russian gas with LPG on such a short notice. Even long term it would take months if not years to have proper infrastructure to trade, transfer, store and turn back the liquid into a gas form without killing its properties. The problem with such investments in EU is all the Green Agenda, which has exact opposite directives, i.e. not investing in such.
Problem is, without gas and nuclear energy, there is no way to secure enough energy to satisfy all the needs in a consistent and stable manner.
Let's also remember, that gas is only a tip of an iceberg for all the commodities, which include oil, aluminium or refined steel (check steel Rebar), nickle, fertilizers, etc.
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
in Way Off-Topic
Posted
Oil going good for Russia it seems
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russias-Oil-Export-Loophole-Runs-Through-Greece.html
Plus OPEC making sure that Russia remains part of OPEC+ and also refusing to increase production