Darkpriest
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Posts posted by Darkpriest
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They will scale back and focus on south east and south.
For me, the whole thing should have been only about this fromnthe get go, if the dreamed of any success
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1 minute ago, pmp10 said:
It's not at all clear that Russians are the ones bleeding more.
We don't know the Ukrainian losses and red army is very artillery heavy.I wouldn't bet on the land bridge part just yet.
He will soon control everything from Kherson to Mariupol and that is enough for a bridge and two more separatist republics.
It will all depend on how long can Russia grind it out.Yes, hence why I said so far the red line was not necessarily the land bridge, but if they will take Mariupol amd secure much more of the South and sustain a lot of damage in the process, they will move that red line to the full lnd bridge.
I think the earlier UA will conceed on those east republics and crimea the better chance of Putin not moving his red line goalposts.
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55 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:
I seriously doubt conscripts would be any improvement for Russia in this war. Quite contrary really. You still need to train people for modern war, you need to supply them on front. This is not WW2 where you can give one guy rifle and second ammo and send them to death.
I agree, but you can also say the same on the UA side. A lot of them are not regular soldiers but citizens volunteering and fighting with minimal training. The obvious difference are determination and knowledge of terrain, but in itslef you cannot claim that UA is having an advantage in equipment and tech, and they are fighting mostly an infantry based war
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Putin's red line is Crimea, Donesk, Lughansk in full oblast boundries and some sort of no NATO/ or Russian controled Ukraine army development in Ukraine. He will not go less than that. He already conceedes on a regime change and full land bridge to Crimea and Moldova. If UA will not give him this much, he is ready to conscript tens of thousands more and send them Stalin wise to flood UA until UA submits defeat, but the longer and more bloodied it will be, he will escalate measures even more, short of tactical nukes, as that would push West towards a military response.
The more things escalate and the more terrain Russians will start controlling in the south, the further red line will be pushed against Ukraine.
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Something for more tactics focused ppl.
And some citizens militia or as they call it in UA, territorial defense units (as you can see by behavior
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11 minutes ago, Lexx said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XEqYRH-_n0
This "unsinkable" ship just got destroyed. Very likely thanks to this video, which is showing exactly where that ship is sitting and what they are doing.
Hilarious how incompetent every single branch of the russian side is.
This event?
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I wonder if people will be crying that these bio males are mistreated or that the martial law should be extended to cover also young, childless women to stay and support war effort. (in the spirit of equal rights)
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Meanwhile, Putin wants countries labeled as hostile countries to pay in rubles for its natural gas. Which would mean most if not all of EU. This is aimed to stabilize RUB and make sure there is a demand for it and they will still be getting USD/EUR.
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So Sauds have given middle finger to both US and UK, and now UAE are sticking it to the US even more.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-angered-after-syrias-assad-makes-historic-visit-uae
For some reason, US is also thinking that antagonizing China even more will benefit them?
Now, we just wait for Sauds and China to implement that Yuan based oil trade
, and then stick it to US by inviting Assad to normalize relations?
Oh, and also India does not give a damn about the whole situation. Buying Russian oil hand over fist.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-ignores-western-pressure-buys-cheap-russian-crude
Does US plan to sanction half of the world now? Or they will start realizing they've lost the hegemon status and actually start recognizing others as partners?
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Something for likes of @BruceVC and @Elerond who think that economic status quo cannot change.
Perhaps check credentials of this guy ( Zoltan Pozsar https://g.co/kgs/Q4qcfm) who has exactly the same view as what I've been trying to convey here.
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the idea of a new global reserve currency was reintroduced last week by none other than former NY Fed staffed Zoltan Pozsar who wrote in his latest note that "when this crisis (and war) is over, the U.S. dollar should be much weaker and, on the flipside, the renminbi much stronger, backed by a basket of commodities. From the Bretton Woods era backed by gold bullion, to Bretton Woods II backed by inside money (Treasuries with un-hedgeable confiscation risks), to Bretton Woods III backed by outside money (gold bullion and other commodities)."
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Still so sure of USD remaining dominant past the 2030?
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12 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
Yes I will happily take a bet with you over the significance of the $ but you wont honor it when you lose ....remember you still havent eaten your hat
There is a trade deficit of Monopoly Guy Top Hats, and i need to figure out how to create the vid and not have any meta information tying to my real identity
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49 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
But no one is going to ignore the $ in any meaningful way as had been explained and demonstrated historically since the end of WW2 so no need to be worried
"Past performance is not indicative of future gains"
Wanna bet on it?
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1 hour ago, Elerond said:
How much money average Chinese person has compared to average US person?
Natural resources have habit to produce money to selected few who own them, where rest of the country benefits only little about them.
Meaning if you take all money that there is to be have from natural resource, that amount needs to be less than the amount of that people get from products that are made from those natural resources because otherwise those products would make loss and their production would end. And then there is capitalistic death wheel, where country that sell natural resources buys the products that were made of those resources, which leads situation where they need to sell amount of natural resources needed for multiple products in order to buy one product.
Money is relative and has value only of all parties involved in it believe they store value. It's basics of a definition of money.
You can have all the paper dollar in the world and it will mean nothing if no one will want to send to you any resources or do any labor for you, if they will decide the paper you hold does not provide a store of value.
Given huge trade deficits and almost every product line being dependent on some sort of external resources or labor, US and even more so EU have no real leverage, should more countries with actual resources and product lines decided to ignore sanctions and even more so, decided they will start ignoring dollar for commodity trades.
You can ask Brits about their loss of the global reserve status for Pound.
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1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:
The China involvement in all of this will be indeed crucial for the future of politics. At least for now, China is not willing to put their economy on risk with supporting with sanctions affected russian business
Yes, but in essence it told US to pound sand and not to try threaten sanctions
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8 minutes ago, Elerond said:
Didn't BoJo help Saudis to take over Newcastle United when Premier League blocked them buying it? So I don't see why he now would have issues with Saudis.
Because MBS will not do anything that would help Biden, and this action is last ditch effort by UK/US to try and stabiize situation on the Oil markets with now Iran deal dead in the water and Russia situation
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Funny enough the drop in oil is also now a result of destroyed demand side and increasing recession fears.
The war in Ukraine seems to have expedited the incoming crisis. I had it mapped for this year, but more for the Q3, right on midterms in US. Seems by then we might have a depression, if FED will hike rates too aggresively.
China markets suffered immensly already, so they might actually look into de-dolarization more aggresively. It feels that within 2-5 years we will be looking into a new economic reality, with less dominant USD, more commodity backed currencies and more turbulent geopolitics. Should China's property market and economy suffer, they will go and annex in full Taiwan. The CCP will need distraction and a propaganda success.
Russians timing was also well placed, just as the economies did not yet recover from COVID distruptions, making sure that any sanctions will be painful to Western economies as well.
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The nerve or stupidity...
Must be proud, or some kind of new social justice version of a math...
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Too funny, suddenly Venezuela is good again
In the meanwhile, bets how much BoJo is squirming now.
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10 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
https://www.aol.com/12-oil-stocks-goldman-sachs-165838372.html
Great news again around the oil price, its just higher than $100 and this better price is primarily because large oil companies like Exxon have agreed to make up any oil shortfall caused by Putins War
That, and China and India are buying Russian oil, plus a lot of brokers are still buying oil as it is not banned
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Hah and it seems my comment about a choice between food and usd bill might be more accurate by the minute.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/russia-may-ban-wheat-rye-barley-and-corn-exports-until-june-30
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23 minutes ago, Elerond said:
Consumer. They can change their economy much easier than the producer.
There is reason why USA is rich where countries that produce goods and natural resources it use are poor
Then why Germany did not stop buying oil and gas from Russia immediatelly, if it is purely consumer driven?
Or maybe ask people, if given a choice, would they prefer a loaf of bread or a 100 USD bill if they are hungry?
Ukraine Conflict - Das Himmelfahrtskommando
in Way Off-Topic
Posted
Seems the more open critique appears in Russia as well.