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Darkpriest

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Posts posted by Darkpriest

  1. 9 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

    I suspect that a significant percentage of current public debt in US came from bailing out big companies, tax cuts, especially corporate ones, and projects with low return on investment like the border wall. The first two go by and large into dividends to shareholders, which means it is money that will never reach the broad economy, thus not affecting growth or wealth creation significantly. Infrastructure projects help a bit more, but the border wall was a good example of a project where the money doesn't go back into society, like schools, roads, hospitals, or pretty much whatever. As in everything, it is not so much the amount you spend but how you spend it.

    Well, the 2008 drop did go mostly to financial sector, but if i recall, the money there were returned. 

    I'd need to go into the yearly spending, but i do not think that additional fed debt went to companies. Not directly at least. 

    You'd need to see the big spending figures in the budget.

     

    I found this on quick search from 2015

    image.thumb.png.2322ebdc1ba921f040680b97927abdc5.png

     

  2. 7 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

    As the article I quoted stated, the EU has admitted that the doses were not going to the UK.

    I disagree with the article on it being the EU's most embarrassing day though, even limited to covid related stuff. The day they decided to preferentially order 300 mln Sanofi vaccines sight unseen was far more embarrassing- though technically I guess that embarrassment was spared until it outright failed Phase 2 trials and is now due in 2022 at the earliest. That is, of course, why they were scrambling to order Astra Zeneca doses so late in the piece.

    And EU still does not want to look into a Russian vaccine. 

    It will also be interesting to look at, how the EU help funds will be distributed nd which countries will be real beneficiaries of ECB printer going Brrrrrr

  3. Yes, well... I care because reasons. But what's more important is that someone is not "walking the talk" and by all the virtue speech and signaling by politicians, they stop caring once the interests of their party and potential for election is jeopradized. This makes them very predictable in what they are willing to do. All the jawboning on the 'human rights' is nothing but a show to the voters. Sometimes though, with such an approach you kill your potential long term development chances and you stagnate and fall behind. 

    • Like 1
  4. 11 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

    Food for thought and you never know what the future holds but if I was a betting man I would bank ( excuse the pun ) on the system that the world currently uses by choice as the system that will continue to be used. This pandemic created an artificial global economic crisis....it wasn't structural and you normally only see the changes you are suggesting around structural economic problems ...not artificial 

    That's why I also mentioned that the next big crisis will be responsible for the more permanent shift. The pointnhere is, the last couple of years are weakening the status quo and the plans and diaagreements, which emerged more to the spotlight, do not carry an insurance and going back to strenghts. On the contrary, there are initiatives and determinatio  to change the status quo, and the 'western' nations proven how swlf interested they are, whenever something wrong happens (self centered, short sighted movement in economic policies and 'vaccine wars' and protecting own interests and profits vs sharing the vaccine tech for a pandemic threat and underlining the self centerism and mistreatment of poorer asian, south american and african nations, while russia and china bank on that) 

     

    • Hmmm 1
  5. I do not want it to change. I have no real interest in it changing. Quite the contrary, it would just bring a bit more pain and restrictions. However, I can understand why Russia-China-Iran-other continental Central/East Asia aside of India and South Korea would like this to happen. 

    It would make them self reliant, self sufficient and an economic and demographic powerhouse. Ask yourself where most of the valuable natural resources is? Where the most of the production capabilities are? Where most of the advancements in communication and tech happens. Which societies are more unified with a more common vision and are hungry of successes? 

     

    Paper without underlying real production economy is just a piece of paper. You can't have serviced based economy, if you have no means on which you will be providing this service. 

    • Thanks 1
  6. 1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

    Yes the US Dollar, and the USA economy,  is considered stable and sustainable. You may not agree with it but the reality of how the  majority of the worlds Central Banks and global Investment banks see it is that  the dollar is the best currency to buy and keep in foreign exchange  reserves 

    To quote from that link I provided all these paragraphs below confirm what I am saying but the link also discusses the negative or reasonable ways to find alternatives to the US dollar 

    According to the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. dollar is the most popular. As of the fourth quarter of 2019, it makes up over 60% of all known central bank foreign exchange reserves. That makes it the de facto global currency, even though it doesn't hold an official title.

    The relative strength of the U.S. economy supports the value of the dollar. It's the reason the dollar is the most powerful currency. As of 2018, the U.S. had $1,671 billion in circulation. As much as half that value is estimated to be in circulation abroad.Many of these bills are in the former Soviet Union countries and in Latin America. They are often used as hard currency in day-to-day transactions.

    In the foreign exchange market, the dollar rules. Around 90% of forex trading involves the U.S. dollar. The dollar is just one of the world's 185 currencies according to the International Standards Organization List, but most of these currencies are only used inside their own countries.3

    Almost 40% of the world's debt is issued in dollars.4 As a result, foreign banks need a lot of dollars to conduct business. This became evident during the 2008 financial crisis. Non-American banks had $27 trillion in international liabilities denominated in foreign currencies. Of that, $18 trillion was in U.S. dollars.5 As a result, the U.S. Federal Reserve had to increase its dollar swap line. That was the only way to keep the world's banks from running out of dollars.

     

    I envy you your optimism and roae tinted glasses. However, we now have End of March 2021, after a lot of political map changes, relationship changes and most importantly economies and policies affected by pandemic and different priorities that surfaced during it. 

    Data from end of 2018 and 2019 is most likely vastly outdated and not representative. If you could show me the same content for March 2021 I'd be more inclined to share your view 😉

    • Thanks 1
  7. 1 minute ago, BruceVC said:

    It always fails because the countries involved arent consistent with their own rules around adhering to various global  financial regulations and having transparent legal systems like China

    So to repeat what I said earlier, you will be waiting a long time if you think the "evil, Capitalist , Western ,Banking " system is going to be replaced by " open, transparent , non-greedy, socialist/Communist " banking systems of China and Russia

    Sorry Dark, its not going to happen. You need trust in a currency and stability to make it the worlds unofficial reserve currency 

    And you think US and USD are now beacons of stability and development? 

    I'm not saying that this will happen tomorrow, but I can certainly see that happening in 5-10years. To be frank, I believe we are one big financial crisis away from the permanent shift. 

     

    Even people like this guy see issues with where the focus is placed. 

     

    • Gasp! 1
  8. Depends, with how dollar was treated and its spilloever effect of trillions printed into the system, that whole stable/reserve is put into question. 

    Also, recently there was a trading block formed in Asia, which can easily use an alternative to USD and it is self sustainable. Plus China, Russia and other countries of 2021 are in a much different place than those of 2015. 

    I would not dismiss that possibility that easily. When it comes to land, resources and popultion, plus technology, do you really see a real rival. The one thing that could cripple this is the semiconductor production capabilities, that's why China is so fixed on Taiwan. 

     

  9. Interesting developments in geo-pol. Not sure how many tracked the recent meeting between Russia and China, and what was said afterwards in their statements. (especially removal of dollar from any transactions and reliance on western banks settlement systems) 

     

    It also seems that Iran is pulled into the triangle of the huge pan-Asian block. 

    Looking at the map, and with dwindling influence in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, it seems that only India is not really on board in that continentl Asian conglomerafe, although the current leader in India is not really easily digestable to US admin and US tech. 

    Turkey also seems to stray away further from "important values", with the recent withdrawal  from the (ironically) Istambul convention, which aimed to secure protection to women against  voilence. 

     

     

     

  10. On 3/20/2021 at 10:16 PM, Zoraptor said:

    Even if it were a serious request I wouldn't even consider it momentarily. Covid is one thing, but anyone wanting to avoid that is infinitely better going to, and may Allah smite me for saying the word, Australia.

    I couldn't in good conscience advise anyone to move to NZ until they fix the housing market appreciating at 30%+ p/a (who would a thunk no capital gains tax and zero interest rates would result in that? Only those with a functioning brain and IQ above ambient temperature, which apparently describes no one at Treasury or in Government here) and at 20x the average annual wage, before tax. Rents up 30%, wages up 1%, and 'experts' are baffled why the economy is in recession despite the housing bubble. Easy answer, 50% of the population has had their disposable income reduced by having to pay rent increases which are then used to repay the banks rather than being spent in actual businesses. So stimulus, much economic activity etc etc. Oh well, you know what they say; there is only one type of person who believes in infinite growth in a finite system: economists, politicians, and idiots and they'll ride the bubble all the way down to oblivion. 

    Unrwlated to corona, but I've just read this. Not sure how old this piece of opinion is. 

    ---------

    Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently had house prices added to its inflation-fighting mandate; and NZ has just seen its government also introduce measures to cool housing:

    A NZD3.8bn fund to unlock more land for housing development – which won’t make any difference, as housing developers only build when prices are high;

    Government first home grants available to more people - which will also push prices up further;

    The extension of the period in which profits on the sale of investment property are taxed to 10 years from five – which won’t bother people if prices are rising 20% y/y; and

    Phasing out the ability of investors to claim mortgage interest as a tax-deductible expense.

     

    -----

  11. 5 hours ago, Guard Dog said:

    Reading DP's links... mostly factual as far as they go. Bond yield rising in an of itself is not the concern. Although it IS curious because US fiscal policy and the actions of the Fed should make everyone nervous when Bonds become volatile.  The reason being inflation. When the Fed is promising to hold inflation at 2.2% it's a pretty safe bet you're already there and likely past it despite what you read in the papers. Which is why the Reuters article suggests the rise in yields is from investors shorting debt. Probably true but not for the reason they suggest IMO only. The thing to watch is Repo Market activity. That is where the first indications of trouble start. The Repo Market is a short term borrowing exchange between banks. The lending firm will "buy" securities from a bank or fund with the agreement the borrower will "buy" them back after the term of the loan at a higher price. It's like collateralized loan with the difference in price being the interest. The terms are short, obviously. 24-48 hours usually. Well, right now the hot item being "borrowed" are 10 year treasuries. The borrowers are are buying them from the Fed and using them as collateral in the repo market. The way treasuries work is as their prices drop their rates climb. The rates are climbing because there are suddenly a lot more on them in play.

    That is the WHY behind the yields. WHY is the 10 year suddenly so popular? Dunno for sure. Purely my own opinion here but I think banks are waiting to see what the Fed is going to do. See if they will intervene. The outcome of this is an increase in real interest rates, something the Fed does not want (but IMO only should be allowed to happen). Another problem is if Bond yields get hot overall stock prices go down. Something else the Fed does not want.  Anyone who says they know what's happening and exactly what it means is just wrong though.

    This is another piece by another source and a bit different perspective, but it does highlight the dillemma of rates and perpetual, growing debt

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-has-forced-investors-take-excess-risk

  12. 2 hours ago, Gorth said:

    Thanks mate. I'm not living in low lying areas, so not really at risk. if the hill I live on floods, we have a different kind of (global) problem :)

    Yeah, hope you will not be downgraded from a continent to an archipelago 😉

    On more serious note, hope you have some stash of emergency food and other nesesities in case return to normal would be a bit more bumpy or costly. 

     

  13. 13 minutes ago, Azdeus said:

    zerohedge, written by a psychotic nihilistic delusion, and your number one source of choice for creme-de-la-Kreml bots 👌

    Read this then. 

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2BB0BV

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usd-bonds-yields-explainer-idUSKBN2BB230

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-themes-idUSKBN2BB1CI

     

    I'm not saying to treat something as an ultimate omnipotence, but the perspective is worth considering, or at least reading it with a critical mindset and challanging your own thesis on some aspects of the markets. 

     

     

    NOTE: I wonder if in retrospective you would look back and see on what you thought possible before GFC and of the warnings by "doomsayers".  Same as on such warnings on the danger of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, etc. 

  14. @Malcador

    There is no really a need to go that deep into some conspiracies, but it's not hard to imagine that the whole "court" around Biden is actually pulling a lot of strings. Effectively though, whatever he will announce or sign is the action. Just not sure how much of it is his own initiative, as I bet dollars against pebbles, that none of it is, based on how he is communicating and who is discussing policies with foreign leaders. 

  15. 5 hours ago, pmp10 said:

    You do know that Polish liberals are even tougher on Russia?
    Issues like Belarus or Navalny matter to them more than to the current government which just maintains it's hate/envy/emulate attitude. 

    They are not tougher, they just want to look tough, and get a pat on the head from Western parties supporting Navalny. However, the current ruling party is outright running smear campaigns since their inception, including conspiracies that Russians killed a Polish president, who in fact died in a plane crash. 

  16. 17 minutes ago, Malcador said:

    I'm sure if Internet Minds dig deep enough, the conclusion will be

    aiEJH.gif

     

    Must have watched Borat recently? 

    On a more serious note, not sure why there is a tendency to imply some outragous theories on a level of Russiagate or QAnon with the statment, that Biden is effectively just a figure-head. 

    One of the reasons why it is certainly amusing, calling a Russian president a "soulless killer", is the fact that there is a lot of innocent civilian blood on US hands and a lot of conflicts and death initiated by USA. Heck, US army is openly pillaging for oil Syrian oil fields. 

  17. 2 hours ago, Gromnir said:

    in the US, the President is not supposed to be "running the show" regardless o' dp's conspiracy theories spawned from zerohedge or his own tortured imagination.

     

     

    Typical, deflection, ad persona insinuatuon, clinging onto something not even mentioned in the discussion. 

    This tactic has to work well for you. Your fellow partners must be proud of you. 

    Biden wouldn't be able to run the show even if he was let to do so. He can't even run an unscrippted press conference or walk straight onto a staircase. 

    You well know, what executive powers a US president has, and if those powers are not sufficient to use a phrase of "running the show" than what are. They certainly are, when compared to token presidents, such as German one. 

    I've also mentioned mr Powell inthere, in respect to an area that no president has a direct control over.

    Anyway, if you can't look at something from more than one angle, then it's your loss, not mine. 

     

    If I'm wrong then you will sleep happy. Take conciliation in that. 

  18. 1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

    Yep. A permanent break could have happened if Trump had been reelected but still would have required something like NATO breaking up to add that permanence. As it is it's pretty easy for a Biden US and Europe to go back to status quo ante Trump even by something as simple as not actively sniping at each other and keeping disagreements in house more.

    As long as US will step aside on many trade and regional meddling, sure it's possible as on the strategic layer it's good to have a muscle backing your daily reality, but EU, especially France nd Germany have much different interests politically and trade wise, than what US would see to fit them. 

    Which country in EU now is a strong voice in terms of supporting US initiatives? It was difficult even during the Obama era, and you think that now, after Trump, and with volatile people becoming more prominent in US politics, this will be better? 

    Biden is effectively a figure head, sheltered and for occasional statment airing only. Who is running the show, hmm? 

  19. 23 minutes ago, rjshae said:

    It's not really anything. At most Biden could only get a draw by participating, so why bother? He can hurt Putin more through other means, including rectifying our soured relations with European states.

    He can't do s- with EU relations. Not until US will drop from the high horse position and start taking into account various EU sensitivities and areas of interests. 

    Macron calls US cultural trends harmful, Angela has vested interests in making sure she can work with Russia in regards to natural resources and market for german automibiles and other equipment. 

    A lot of EU is more interested in business with China and normalization in middle east, including improving relations with Iran. 

     

    The only reliable puppet was until recently Poland with its currently rusophobic government, which also plays a tune of German and Russian coalition to destroy Poland. This however got out of the window when Trump lost presidencial race. The "wokeism" of current US policymakers is faaaaar away from the values they could accept in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe. 

     

    Thanks to Powell US dollar is trash currently, and there is a significant probability that USD will lose its reserve currency status during Bidens presidency (it would be same case if Trump would stay) 

     

    USA is losing its soft and hard power projection capabilities at a significant pace. The only thing that's losing credibility and power faster than USA is the EU as a governing body of unified nations. 

     

    • Haha 1
  20. Hah... This will never happen, although I would like to see it. 

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/putin-challenges-biden-debate-president-calls-killer/story?id=76539031

    Putin just made a check mate move. 

    Looking how long it takes for Biden to do an unscrippted press conference, we know he is in no mental shape for a debate.

    If he will take this up, he will get demolished by Putin. 

    If he will not take it, he will look evasive and weak. How would anyone take such a leader seriously on the world stage? 

    If they will try to push Kamala for the debate, they will only admit that Biden is really a figure-head, a puppet. And she would lose it as well, as she would have a typical ignorant view of the world and its history. 

     

    • Haha 1
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