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Darkpriest

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    Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted · Edited by Darkpriest

    1 minute ago, Chilloutman said:

    If they are winning (UK), I am pretty sure they are not going to give up territory at all. On contrary they will demand that they get back Crimea - strategic importance of it is too high now

    Russians will never give up on Crimea, they will sooner use nukes than drop Sevastopol naval base. 

    Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted · Edited by Darkpriest

    43 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

    Hard to believe it but it seems like Ukraine is really winning this. Even Lavrov is now starting to back away a bit. Interesting

    They've made a strategic mistake of attacking Ukraine mainland. As I've said some time ago, on 2nd or 3rd day, from reliable and well set sources. Ukraine was ready to drop the rest of Donbas and Lukhansk Oblast and some narrow land bridge to Crimea, if Russia would go in with the show of force there, at the cost of hard sanctions on Russians. (no one will officially admit that) However, the moment they went into major hubs and Ukraine proper, this became Nation's war, one which is un-winnable by Russians, unless they will flatten cities and start killing civilians on purpose in large numbers. 

    Ukraine will have to make concessions, and most likely they will give up Crimea, and the rest of now ruined Donbas and Lukhansk Oblast including the port city of Mariupol, but they will not carve out a land bridge to Crimea easily on a deal, and they might want to get financial reparations from Belarus on the same deal or even outright sacrifice of Lukashenko by Russians (the latter never having a chance of happening unless Russian already have a different pupper for Belarus) . 

     

    Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück

    in Way Off-Topic

    Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted · Edited by Darkpriest

    Meanwhile Oil hits 111, Wheat at over 1050.

    If Oil hits 150 you will have serious recession, Atlanta FED already puts Q1 growth at 0.0

    If Oil hits 200 we will experience 2008 on steroids.... 

     

    Corn crossing 740, higher only during major financial crisises in the last 15 years

    Food prices will soar this Q... 

     

    We really better hope this ends very soon... I'm not sure how many of forum goers were working adults in 2008, but it was ugly... 

    Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

    You right, these are hard economic times but knowing that the Russian economy is being devastated by Putins War makes me feel much better

    And you wrong, Western countries wont agree to anything Putin wants because he invaded Ukraine. He  created this reality and he needs to stop the war and then we can go  back to negotiations. Its like you think Russia has the economic strength here?

    Not directly, but the impact on the western economies, while they are still coping with already high inflation and supply chain disruptions. 

    Ukraine conflict - im Westen nichts Neues

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted · Edited by Darkpriest

    17 minutes ago, Elerond said:

    It depends, like for example with 120 dollar per barrel, our domestic biofuel will be in competitive price and will eventually boost our economy.

    Oil and Natural gas are bad for European domestic energy production, but usually it is seen too expensive to get rid of them, but rising prices will force change, which is change which oil producers would like to avoid.

    Well, does it become sustainable long term? Base energy costs are already extremly high, what would be the cost pressure on the society? 

    Sure, producers might get it running at that price, but economy might not be able to withstand it, especially not the lower end of the income range within the societies. 

    Ukraine conflict - im Westen nichts Neues

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, pmp10 said:

    And backtracked already.

    I'm starting to wonder if people are trying to push things by leaking opinions of some officials.

    They need to de-escalate, otherwise Russian doctrine will guide into a direction, that if NATO is already providing equipment and manpower, and now provides advanced machinery to fight, it is not much different than an act of war, especially in the full economic ties cut-off. Russians will have nothing to lose via escalation and at least they will be able to bring pain back. 

    Diplomacy is about striking a balance, even if uneasy, because if the other side is faced with being 'cancelled', what is a path back to 'normality' ? 

     

    Ukraine conflict - im Westen nichts Neues

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

    Exactly who would constitute this union? China, plus North Korea and Myanmar? And Russia of course.

    I don't see too many countries, Asian or otherwise, joining CIPS. And even the ones that do join will still also hold on to their SWIFT access.

    Wel, the whole belt road set of countries, and thoae who still want to buy stuff from Russia. 

    You have Pakistan, Iran, All the Post soviet republics and land locked countries there, Afghanistan, Syria, most likely Turkey as well, Iraq, India is also interested in trading with Russia. 

    China can also use it for inclusion of some of African states, where they have significant leverage. 

    I have no idea how the countries in the south east Asia work, but I guess they would be interested in using that as well. 

    South American countries like Venezuela, Brasil can jump on board as well, etc. 

     

    Ukraine conflict - im Westen nichts Neues

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted · Edited by Darkpriest

    46 minutes ago, Lexx said:

    There's rumors that russia is or was destroying fields on purpose. Not sure how much truth is in it, though.

    I'd put it as a rumor to make them look much worse. Some still have some first hand stories of the great hunger. 

    However, fields are large areas of flat land, and military hardware will not really look, where they go through when operating, hence a lot of collateral damage is expected. 

    Edit:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/breadbasket-world-choked-russian-invasion-wheat-prices-soar

    Ukraine conflict - im Westen nichts Neues

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted

    Seems there are more instances of looting, however not sure to what extent and if it's true that in some areas looters are ought to be shot on site by militia members or soldiers. 

    One thing as someone observed:

    "" "" 

    Something perhaps worth noting for some is the fact that as the nation crumbles amid the invasion, the looting only appears to be at supermarkets - with people truly in desperate need of bread and milk - and oddly not big-screen televisions, Louis Vuitton purses, and PlayStations...

    Ukraine conflict - im Westen nichts Neues

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted · Edited by Darkpriest

    8 hours ago, BruceVC said:

    I thought you were going to stop using zerohedge as your reason for predictions after they have been so wrong ?

    Their is nothing wrong with the SWIFT system and it wont become weaponized so no need to be concerned. The primary reason it is so effective is because it is used by choice by the majority of banks globally and it works , no one  is forcing any bank to use it so you welcome to create your system and try to convince other banks to use it?

    Also these Russian sanctions have really become so damaging to Putin because the US has slapped Dollar related sanctions on the various Russian banks meaning they cant trade in the $. This is not the same as SWIFT  sanctions 

    And this works because the $ is the worlds reserve currency and very stable 

    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex-currencies/092316/how-us-dollar-became-worlds-reserve-currency.asp

    Did you actually read and listen to these guys like Jamie Dimon or Zoltan Pozsar at Bloomberg segments? Or it's just being asinine and ignorant to risks a form of virtue? 

    Will Russians suffer? Yes. 

    Will the drop be significant? Yes. 

    Will they collapse and revolt? Unlikely. 

    Does this event strip a lot of 'neutral' institutions and states of their perceived neutrality status? Yes

    Does it pave way for other, non-west aligned solutions, cartels and economic unions? Most likely

    Does it endanger the dollar dominance short term? No

    Does it endanger the dollar dominance mid to long term? You betcha! 

    Western countries are Net Importers of almost everything, from resources to labor and manufacturing. We are good at exporting capital and pollution. Doesn't really build confidence in economic capability in case of major conflict and blockades, does it? 

    Imagine a Pan-Asian union using Chinese CIPS in 5-10years, and payments for Oil, Gas and Gold in CIPS be Yuan denominated. What do you think will happen? 

    • Hmmm 1

    Ukraine conflict - im Westen nichts Neues

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted

    Interesting part to share:

    "" "" 

    Overall, the Russian military is performing extremely poorly: they still don’t have air superiority due to Ukraine moving its air defences around, and Russian missile strikes having only hit old, static targets. Russia’s attempts to rapidly seize Kyiv while minimising losses to Ukrainian civilians and its infrastructure are resulting in massive losses on their side. According to the Ukrainians, as of Sunday Kyiv claimed to have taken out: 540 IFVs, 16 airplanes, 18 helicopters, 102 tanks, 504 APCs, 1 Buk-1 system, 20 armoured cars, and 5,000 soldiers. The latter is a third of the total losses suffered in the entire Soviet-Afghan war (1979-89).

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