Darkpriest
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Posts posted by Darkpriest
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Btw, now with changes in Itally, Hungary is more openly calling for end of sanctions on Russia by the end of the year. I expect in 2-4weeks time Italy will be asking for end of sanctions as well.
Other countries' resolve might get tested as well...
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Not sure what is there to laugh about...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pound-flash-crashes-500-pips-record-low-amid-global-fx-carnage
I cant sleep. The magnitude of damage is beyond what I've been looking on previously....
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There is little doubt, that this war doesn't go according to the Kremlin's plans. It was made unwinnable when the Kiev was a target. Should Russians focus all efforts from the start on the belt they still control now, we would probably be already after the conflict.
Now, in economic terms, the war is more destructive to Western economies than it is to the Russian one.
As in clockwork (end of Q3 beginning of Q4), we are about to experience a global crisis and a last hurrah of the USD.
FED is trapped and too late to the game, and has to raise rates. Economies are still weak, EU is in shambles on its own wish with all the policies and sanctions, and Truss is probably the worst choice UK could have made after Boris (todays plan just confirms that)
For those more interested in what's goin on, read this summary. It's simple enough for people who have at least some interest in economy and markets.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crash
For non-ZH readers, free BBG article via yahoo ->
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-risks-breaking-point-201642016.html
Now, in terms of impact on the EU, you will see more and more 'nationalists' coming to power, especially at the time of economic crisis and with more migrants inflows.
Even Sweden turned right, Italy is about to go as well. France avoided that barely, due to bad timing of election and previous connections to Putin.
Russia will send those conscripts to secure land after referendums. They want to hold south belt to Crimea as a status quo and their war loot.
UA topic is about to vanish from main points of media interests. Give it until the end of year tops. In Europe, economic woes will take the front pages. (inflation, crashed currencies, stocks, unafordable energy and heating prices, unafortable food and poor food security outlook for 2023 - see this years poor global harvest data and high cost of production and processing of food in EU). Green policies are now dead, as Europe spends more and more on ship freight of energy resources, which contributes to more emissions and is probably also not enough to create security in the energy.
Oil price caps just means that there will be less oil for the 'West' or EU will be buying resold Russian Oil from China/India same as they are doing now with LNG. It may be even enough to brinng back oil prices above 100, something that Sauds would love to see, as oil now crashed on global recession fears
Anyway too many topics to write about
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4 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
A small price to pay to get rid of the blackmail by Russian mobsters. EU will recover in 5-10 years, Russia in 30-50…
I think you are grossly overestimating the negative impact on Russia, unless you believe you can isolate it from Asian trading partners, which include China, India Iran, Pakistan, plus a lot of African states and South American states.
Meanwhile the social unrest might redraw political map fairly soon in the EU.
Imagine, if this happens
Anyway, back to my cave. Enjoy the ride.
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22 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:
I think, something has already awakened in Germany.
This might be a sign, that they rather counter the high prices and eat it up, than trying to find a solution with unreliable Russia, which knows only how to blackmail…
So in other words, lets print more worthless money and create even more mess?
A guy from this article sums it up pretty well.
Btw, what is the cost of backstopping the European economy? Is it already more than dmg to the Russian one?
Btw. The October/November approaches, and I stick to this timeframe from hmm... March?
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1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:
99% of the time
Headline: in country's territorial waters --> Exclusive Economic Zone of 200 nmi; not Territorial Waters of 12nmi
Headline: in country's airspace --> in their self declared Air Defence Identification Zone, air traffic control area or similar, of arbitrary size; not within actual Airspace of 12nmi
Helps keep the blood pressure nice and low.
Seems some of th missiles flew over the Island?
Again, as US admin openly ignores other superpower's 'red line' for domestic publicity and after the Russia experience I would not rule out the Taiwan invasion or at least a full effective blockade and isolation, as China sees Taiwan and its territorial waters as its own.
The information flow from the politbureau and news mouthpieces like Global Times - it seems all options are in place.
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Taiwan's Defense Ministry described the latest PLA actions as essentially a "maritime and aerial blockade." Meanwhile, Fox News' Lucas Tomlinson observes that "48 Chinese military aircraft, mostly fighter jets, have now buzzed Taiwan over the past two days." A little less than half of these were reported by Taiwan's defense ministry as having crossed the "median line" - which it should be recalled Chinese state mouthpiece Global Times said has now ceased to exist.
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1 hour ago, Gfted1 said:
I must have hit my free article limit this month for the WSJ, can you give me the abridged version?
Basically that Harvard and Exeter Uni scientists found that 'UBI' does more harm than good to social and economic behaviors, and in the end is making people worse off. And here is the kicker, they were shocked by the results as they all thought prior to experiment on the control group, that it would improve how people act and feel.
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10 hours ago, Gfted1 said:
Socialist policies dont have to be all or nothing. Lets start out with UHC and UBI, financed by taxing the fatcats into the ground, and see where it goes.
Companies dont need to be nationalized.
Need to burst your bubble... UBI is evil...
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1 hour ago, pmp10 said:
Nord Stream gas flow resumes at reduced rate.
Seems Russia is not ready for the cut-off.
Or at least not yet.The point here is, that this still gives Russia ability to threathen shut off, while also already dealing out some pain to EU economies.
If you shut down to zero, you lose some leverage, as the only way to go from zero, is up.
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3 hours ago, pmp10 said:
Rumors have it that Gazprom is getting ready for long-term shut-down of Nord Stream 1.
Maintenance is (was?) to be completed this week.
They certainly know how to keep markets in suspense.Gazprom Russia already announced Force Majeure towards NS1 amd Germany. Seems 22 non-restart becomes reality.
At the same time Rhine river is at lowest in 15 years, limiting transer of goods via waterway.
Looks like Germany is in for some serious pain.
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More eco woes after todays reports
More banks realligning to have H2 2022 with recession as a base case.
I wonder how quickly before midterms Ukraine will vanish from the topic.
Seems Sauds are also not willing to put US over Russia when it comes to energy markets.
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Seems someone had read your mind at ZH and created an article of exactly what they think will happen based on various opinions and analytics from funds and banks, should gas not be back online after July 22
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/world-braces-europes-july-22-doomsday
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3 hours ago, Elerond said:
Germany's gas storages are in half capacity currently, so even if they lose all gas imports now they still have gas until November (when they start to need gas for heating). And during summer month they get more gas from Norway than they use (as they import from Norway 75 TWh worth of gas in month and use 45 TWh).
EDIT: Germany's energy crisis is mainly caused by fact that Germany refuses to declare energy emergency that would allow energy companies to break their long time contracts, which currently forces them to sell gas in massive loss, which has caused that they try avoid selling gas as much as they can.
I guess you know something they dont
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-russia-energy-gas-crunch-nord-stream-shutoff-ukraine-war/
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12 minutes ago, Gorth said:
The yield curve sort of corroborates my claim from a few years ago, that the global economy was headed towards the abyss in 2020 with the speed of the GFC from 2008. Covid masking both the cause and the effect, because everybody were busy pointing fingers at lock downs and blaming that for the tumbling economies. Now the world has to face it, the economic systems in their current form just doesn't work... blaming the war in Ukraine as a cause for prolonging the downturn is just insulting peoples intelligence.
Yes, and the botched respons of too long lockdowns and too much money tossed as stimmies etc, just created a situation, where there is little room to act, as the standard opus moderandi of lowering rates and printing money is hardly doable with high inlation on board.
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15 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
Do you know that Russia and China wanted to replace the $ as the worlds reserve currency from the creation of BRIC in 2006 and they have always claimed they want this yet the $ is still the worlds reserve currency
Also a recession is not the same as a collapse, SA has been through several recessions based on the technical definition which is 2 quarters of negative GDP growth and our economy has still not collapsed because its very easy to immediately come out of technical recession the moment you have growth in the next quarter
So I guess the real question is " what do you and ZH define as a collapse of an economy " ?
If Russia will not resume gas deliveries in 10 days to Germany, then you will experience it.
Meanwhile, some soft data from US.
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1 hour ago, BruceVC said:
So is the $ still going to be worlds reserve currency and when is the US economy going to collapse, you have been saying third quarter?
Reserve currency will not be affected this year or even next one. The period of 5-10ys is the time window.
(this is the viewpoint presented by Epoch Times so scale down the drama level, but it shows what is the general direction those countries want to move into)
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-and-russia-want-replace-us-dollar-brics-currencies
Currently, most of investors do what they were conditioned to do and what algos were built to do, i.e. Things go bad, run for a USD (it's like pavlov syndrome)
The recession and main realization is still locked in for the end of Q3/earnings reporting in October. (Unless war in Ukraine ends and oil and gas trading resumes from Russia to EU)
For example, jobs are not as rosey as you would think from the last gov payrolls report
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/goldman-says-u-s--payroll-gains-overstate-job-growth-68702.html
And banks are starting to communicate recession as base case for 2023
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-now-forecasts-global-recession-12-months
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I'm not sure how closely you've been watching eco news, but given by various metrics, including panic buying of USD, where US economy is also under inflationary pressures and has technical recession with two negative GDP prints Q to Q, the Western way of life is going to really struggle and Europeans will pay the highest price... (ZEW just printed lowest index since 2011 and not far from the lows of 2008?)
On another note, this seems to be own ZH editorial. While the language is not ideal, points they make are fairly accurate.
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7 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:
We'll see. The end of the article already states that Germany is upping their efforts to get gas from somewhere else.
Also, Slovakia is full of people on social media, who are crying and spelling doom and gloom about how is everything expensive and that the state should care for Slovakia first and forget about Ukraine, but as soon as holidays started, half of the country already left to superexpensive Croatia. The car business (both new and used) is growing day by day, despite gas and diesel prices being double of what it was year and half ago... Not willing to start using trains/buses/bikes, parking lots before supermarkets are as full as before war happened... So it pretty much seems like, that it is still not enough expensive here for people to start rallying to stop supporting Ukraine. Well of course with the exception of few people, for whom would be more appropriate stay in a mental hospital, than in any public places, who still yell, that UA soldiers are killing their own civilians and blowing up their own cities, and Russia is there to save them...
That being said, we are one of the biggest ****holes of EU according to our income, so I really have my doubt, if people here do not care about higher prices, that it would move an average German or Briton
People are not keen on letting their habbits die...
I wonder how much of that is being funded by increasing credit, and more debt on credit cards.
People tend to go into excessive debt, which they later cannot repay rather than stop doing something that they are used to and consider a mandatory part of their life.
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1 hour ago, Lexx said:
tbh I barely read anything about it. It's not big in the news here.
Now you've got me guessing what is?
I was expecting that people talk more about high cost of living, potential rationing of energy and heating, first trade deficit in a very long time, etc.
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12 hours ago, Sarex said:
Not much news regarding this it seems.
Interesting approach, in times of real possibility of food shortages, a country decides to destroy their own food production...
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And this is the article about analytics I've mentioned a page ago
https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-germany-gas-idAFL8N2YF1X1
@Mamoulian War I'm quite sure that this is far beyond the pain treshold that Germans or for that matter any country would be willing to pay for "not their" war.
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1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:
Well I still think a lot of people in the west (hopefully a lot of politician in charge) can see, that doing nothing would cost the EU much more in the end, than spent few years in recession. And yes NS2 might be opened soon, and I would not object at all to open it. Of course only if some guys would finally fins enough balls to offer some lead treatment to Vladimir...
The other thing is, that EU is already in heavy talks with African countries like Senegal, DPR Congo (probably even more), about improving their LNG/gas drilling infrastructure. Which if done correctly and in at least half the amount, which are we now importing from Russia, would be much more benefiting to EU. If for nothing, than at least for it being less of an security issue to us.
You are very optimistic on the people part. I'm more inclined to believe that the further away from the border the more ignorant the people are and even some, who are aware of this, will be more interested with their own budgets and the way of life. I doubt people will be happy to lose warm water on demand or having to waer thicker clothing all day, etc.
(again in German) btw, i wonder if @Lexxhas some more insights from German politics as the conflict persists and touches Germans more and more.
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Gas and Nuclear devlared Green in EU. The Gas part is critical here, as it may open up pulling LPG powered vehicles as green as well to help collapsing auto industry in EU. It also opens up potential to invest in LPG infrastructure, without which, business will be keeling over.
Or it may open NS2 soon after the war ends.. (a cynic in me says this)
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On 7/5/2022 at 10:47 AM, Mamoulian War said:
Though your statement is in complete contrast over what the leaders said during the last weeks NATO talks in Madrid
Also if you are used to linking some of, let me say interesting" ZH articles, allow me to make a counter with this video analysis, which is talking about how the West is going to "weaponize" recession against Russia, so if that analysis is plausible, then the most powerful Western countries have already prepared countermeasures for the economic hardship which will hit our economies in the next few months, because it will definitely ruin Russia, which is the end goal. I bet China is already celebrating to get their hand on cheap Siberia assets, and probably preparing grab for Manchuria, which they lost to Russia after the Boxer Rebellion
Of course that China will utilize this to gain position on Russia, their and India's businesses are already filling the vacuum, including electronics.
Now, in worst case scenarios, by German analysts, Germany GDP could drop 6-12% equaling to 5-6mln workplaces lost... I doubt they are ready for such sacrifices.
Already the global recession is being priced in aand appearing in more and more bases cases for late year 2022 (as I've predicted for late Q3), commodities are falling as a result of demand destruction, liquidity issues, and generally poor economic outlook. Oil even dropped below 100 amd that's with OPEC missing on prod quotas.
As for aid, talks are great, but these need to materialize and i do not see that happening. What I do see, is everyone hoping that this can end before winter time and that UA will understtand they cannot 'win' and will conceed before the winter time.
Meanwhile, military aid by country so far. (to put perspective of 9bln bailout in Germany, and that's without full cut off and only first of the energy providers)
Companies dont need to be nationalized.
Ukraine Conflict - "Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed"
in Way Off-Topic
Posted
One thing, she mentioned support 'recently' , but when you look at her 2014 comments, she was against sanctions then. I have some level of cynical view, that this view will soon re-emerge.