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Darkpriest

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Posts posted by Darkpriest

  1. 1 hour ago, Hurlsnot said:

    Everything you both are saying is correct. But we also pay a bunch of money in taxes every year. How many people are getting more in stimulus money than they have to pay the IRS every year? I doubt anybody is actually pulling in a profit here. If taxation is theft, then an IRS payment is at least a partial return of stolen money. 

    You only pay taxes on the money that do not escape your country, through let say imports and trade deficits. You also don't pay taxes for items which are circulated in the not-entirely legal cash flows (untaxed incomes, and sales), and there are always items, which corporations and large asset owners can freeze up, through lets say cheap debt and stock buybacks, or investing into assets offshore, where you will never see that money back, but you will feel the price increases in your pocket, once you will start spending 40-50% of your disposable income on basic food needs and another 40+% on your rent (considering median income in US as bemchmark).

  2. 34 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

    people call me crazy for being a “prepper “. 
    well, if I’m wrong I was just a guy who spent a little extra money and got things he needed anyway with the added bonus of much lower electric bills than average. And if I am right then at least I know I won’t be the one to starve to death.

    I expect things going hotter through June, then some rebound through Q3 with ups and downs, things will look stable and then end of year, early Q1 2022 

     

    Late Q3 and Q4 will be pivotal in decisionmaking by FED, Bidens admin and Dems 

  3. 1 hour ago, Guard Dog said:

    Labor is a widget. It has an absolute value. The value like any other widget goes up and down. When the value of the labor is below the cost of the labor you get layoffs. Of course employers are going to try to keep that value as low as possible. And the people who provide the widget are going to try to keep it as high as possible. But when the cost exceeds the value that’s trouble.

    Come on mr Biden and mr Powell and House Democrats. ONE MORE STIMMY CHECK WITH PRINTED CASH. 

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-core-consumer-prices-explode-higher-fastest-pace-1981

    Lets kill the value of dollar and its reserve currency hegemony status. 

    It's like China and Russia don't have to do anything other than wait for the morons to implode Western economy... 

  4. 8 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

    Comparing the profiling of African Americans by the police in the USA to the years of conflict between  Israel and the Palestinians is  so different and so far apart historically I cannot even begin to respond ..sorry :shrugz:

    How many die of gang voilence and use of firearms in US and how many die of act of voilence in Israel and palestine conflict area outside of the intifadas? 

    You know what are the rights of those people there? 

    I've added a recent interview a post earlier. 

     

    EDIT: Also, the point is not about comparing the two in terms of rights and wrongs, but to show that continued, stoked and sustained perception of being mistreated, can lead groups of people to explode and act not in a rational way, but rather instinctively, like a wounded/beated animal. 

  5. 15 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/israel-palestinian-fighting-worsens/2021/05/11/a1886c9a-b1c6-11eb-bc96-fdf55de43bef_story.html

    I am sure we are following the latest violence between the Israelis and the Palestinians

    It always amazes me when groups supporting the Palestinians, groups in SA for example, say things like " Israel are the aggressors and the Palestinians always the victims " ...yet they conveniently ignore how HAMAS is not deescalating the tension and they are firing hundreds of rockets into Israel

    Like any country in the world would accept rockets being fired into its sovereign territory ?  

    So if someone comes to evict you and beat you up, you just bend a knee and do not react? 

    I guess we should stop criticizing China then? 

    What Hamas done is not right, but we can't ignore underlying issues which created the tensions. People have a breaking point. On one side you condemn profiling by Police, even if data would support such, on the other hand you apporve the same type of data suppprted profiling by Israelis (imagine this type of behavior by US police around various 'hoods') 

     

    It's good to hear both sides of the conflict, but bear in mind that there is a lot of propaganda wars flying around social medias now. 

     

  6. 15 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

    no doubt putin has many things on his mind. having individual doctors and covid patients fall from windows is gonna be kinda far down the list o' stuff on his personal to do list.

    1) navalny

    2) have more stripper poles installed at the pleasure palace 

    3) navalny

    4)boris mikhailov refused an invitation to my hockey event. "seventy six years old," is hardly a decent excuse. maybe he suffers an "icing" penalty from which he never recovers...

    5) navalny

    6) navalny

    etc.

    putin, whatever his flaws, ain't an idiot. 

    HA! Good Fun!

    I think you grossly overestimate the Navalny part. 

    I'd say it's probably somewhere really far down, not sure if even on the top 100 list. 

     

    • Like 1
  7. 20 more years and US will not be able to have a functioning military to counter China, Russia and other raising threats

    https://about.bgov.com/news/army-anime-courts-teens-from-a-small-pool-of-eligible-gen-zers/

    One more conflict, which US will procure, some images of body bags, and US will need to go to mandatory draft.

    But hey, lets glorify lazines, self entitlement and fatness. 

  8. Well... Interesting news around B.1.617 (one of India variants). 

     

    Under peer review now as it seems fully vaccinated people get infected with it and are ill. 

    Not enough data around severity of those cases, but worrying enough, that we might see another global wave. 

    • Sad 1
  9. 32 minutes ago, Gorth said:

    Oh come on, RIcky Gervais was awesome last year when he took on HFPA at their own award show. If just to watch the grimaces and the cringing of the "celebrities" (including Apples Tim Cook and other) when he tells exactly what he think about Hollywood, FFPA and the movie industry. It's priceless 😂

    Names referenced:

    Ronan Farrow: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronan_Farrow (investigative journalist who uncovered the sordid affairs of Hollywood and Harvey Weinstein)

    Harvey Weinstein: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvey_Weinstein (in)famous movie producer and the "Boss" of Hollywood

    Jeffrey Epstein: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein Influential financier

     

     

    Ok, this I agree with, but i do not think he will be hosting a show anytime soon 😉

     

    • Haha 1
  10. 2 hours ago, Raithe said:

    For that slightly different aspect of politics...

    https://www.thewrap.com/golden-globes-canceled-netflix-amazon-boycott-hfpa-reform/

     

     

    Let them cannibalize each other.

    Last Oscar ratings perhaps will make this whole segment of people get hit with some reality check. 

    I could not care less for all those award ceremonies. 

    Hopefully we can reach a level where the overpriced entertainment monkeys of holywood will understand their role in society. "shut up and entertain people" 

    I'd rather pay their fees to engineers running space or healthcare programs. 

     

    • Like 1
  11. 1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

    Technically SWIFT is European. Based in Belgium, iirc. Thoroughly compromised by the NSA though, and frankly, if they were the only ones I'd be extraordinarily surprised.

    So it going would be great since it's pretty useless and hopelessly insecure, if it weren't for the fact that a replacement would also be specced by the sort of people who think building backdoors into everything is a great idea. Russia and China have supposedly had an alternative ready to go for years.

    Not going into details, but technically any deal in USD with the use of SWIFT can be seized by the US Gov.  

     

  12. 1 hour ago, Skarpen said:

    I think the overall value is given in USD, but that doesn't mean all of the FER is in USD. Although I think it's about half of it, so still not that great. 

    I'm quite sure that FED, if pressed hard, will rather protect the usd from becoming a dumpster material, but there will be a lot of pain just before and after the dollar rescue measures. 

    Poland has its own problems when it comes to incompetency or centrally driven politics by an out of touch lunatic. Poland will be dealing with its own issue of inflation vs rates, and as far as I'm certain that eventually sanity will prevail in US, i do not have the same certainty with the currently ruling overlords of Poland. They are just powerhungry cretins, who wasted good years and will rather sink the ship than give up a steering wheel in time to make repairs amd save it. 

     

    Another issue is though, that there is no sane people who could take the wheel and rescue from a crash. 

  13. @Gorth

    In layman's terms inverted curve suggests that there is more uncertainty about you being able to buyback your debt in near future than in the far future. Normally you have higher certainty short term than long term, so if it goes belly up, something fishy is going on and you should be on your toes and hedge your risks. 

    I usually monitor 10Y TSY the most as this drives most commercialized debt costs and is a kind of benchmark, but each yield has its purpose and if you think more seriously about investments, you need know the money market and its implications quite well. 

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

     

    NOTE: also don't forget about corporate

    https://ycharts.com/indicators/moodys_seasoned_aaa_corporate_bond_yield

    or other institutional debt and debt based instruments that bundle up various debt instruments

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-are-most-short-junk-debt-lehman

     

    • Like 1
  14. 48 minutes ago, Gorth said:

    Careful what you wish for (not that you wished for it, just an expression), if the USD implodes, the world economy and most western countries will follow suit as they us it as a currency reserve (rather than tangible assets like gold etc.)

     

    If you will notice trends, a lot of central banks started buying aand collecting gold home during last year. 

    Meanwhile Russia slowly but steadily switches from USD to EUR and other currencies, and are preparing to decouple from SWIFT if needed. (this would imply another settlments service, which would be used by countries, which have had enough of US dominance and leave US teethless when it comes to economic sanctions, with the military solution as last available tool of enforcing sanctions) 

     

    I'm quite sure that we are due for a big crisis, and the longer you kick the can froward, the worse it will be. 

    I expect one by end of 2022.  Soon Fed will be caught in the death grip of 'transitory' hyperinflation causing unrest as food (I've made a killing so far on wheat, corn, suggar, less so on coffee and I believe I mentioned these somewhere at the beginning of the year 😉) and commodities (copper, lumber) expolde or tapering money flows and rising rates, what would kill the debt driven economy. 

     

    Also some other perspective

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/gundlach-warns-americas-unfunded-liabilities-are-163-trillion-more-5x-national-debt

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/just-throwing-money-it-doesnt-work-dimon-slams-planned-dem-tax-hikes-little-bit-crazy

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-there-are-just-two-ways-fix-todays-imbalances-economic-depression-or-soaring

  15. 17 hours ago, Guard Dog said:

    Prices on the rise everywhere as consumers feel stretched 

    it’s the double whammy of shortages plus inflation. Funny thing though and I couldn’t help but notice this the woman they quote in the article who is supposed to represent the typical consumer has about $3000 worth of tattoos on her arm and body. Can’t help but think that money might’ve been better spent at Costco LOL!

    Meanwhile you've printed yourself into a debt, which is of what percent of your GDP? What's the increase of trade deficit? 

    At which point you will call for insolvency of the new Socialist Banana States of America and start using USD as a toilet paper? 

  16. 4 hours ago, Gorth said:

    That the trickle-down effect of tax breaks for the rich (top 1 percent ) somehow benefits the economy is an urban legend... it only makes the rich even richer and doesn't create any positive side effects, like jobs or stimulating the economy.

    https://www.salon.com/2020/12/27/50-year-study-of-tax-cuts-on-wealthy-shows-they-always-fail-to-trickle-down/

    The result of a study spanning the last 50 years.

     

    Ediit: You can find the same study referenced on multiple sites, including nytimes and washington post, but they just offer their own take on the result.

    Yet, for some reason US citizens and USA outcompeted most Western countries in personal wealth. 

     

    The problem is not with the trickle down economy, but how you enable it. 

    US jobs and wealth were hit hard with two punches. 

    1 with easy capital outflows and offshoring "expensive" jobs

    2 with money printing, which drives asset valuations to the moon, while making day to day living more difficult and costly for those with no assets and zero savings, cused by point 1.

    Tax cuts don't work as capital is now invested offshore or kept in appreciating assets. Both offer more return onninvestment than investing cash in US people. 

     

    Anything currently published by NYTimes and WaPo is now trash material on a level of the Sun (although the Sun seems to be more entertaining). 

     

    Taxing personal income with anything other than linear tax rate for all levels and on all types of gains is unjust. That said, there should be tax free amount up the the amount that is deemed above poverty level, and for those who are adding additional income on their retirement after 40 years of work. 

     

    You should rather be spooked by the fact, that you are creating more and more dependables, who will rely on gov to give them money and be parasiting leeches on the tax paying people. 

    image.png.d2989762cf94c6144e2ba1a3ea1a03fb.png

    I wonder how quickly you will start hearing about more cash to the people.... After all 2022 regional elections are coming. 

     

    As for the post that started the conversation. 

    Letting people keep more fruits of their labor and risk taking is different then giving someone else fruits, who were taken by force from someone who spent time and took risks to produce them. 

     

    Problem with hands out is also in the fact, that people in US will spend it on something largely from imports, so your tax does not go back 100% to your community, but 70% goes to Kumar in India, Piotr in Poland and Xiao in China, while you will be stuck with the bill for 130 % as your govermnet also had to take debt to service all the transfers, but you will have to shore up money for gov to repay that debt in the future. 

     

     

     

     

  17. 12 hours ago, BruceVC said:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/at-least-50-people-were-shot-in-chicago-over-memorial-day-weekend-the-next-day-another-23-were-shot-including-a-5-year-old-girl-standing-with-her-family/ar-BB14FxJS

    Guys I am looking for opinions of members on this link and what it means  but more relevant to this post is something about the local  global response to BLM that I dont understand or rather seems inconsistent to me based on certain objectives of BLM

    But I want to be clear, this post is not a way to dismiss the legitimate concerns around BLM. I support certain BLM objectives and I can easily separate what BLM  stands for and the large number of African Americans that get killed in gang violence....both have separate causes and different solutions but they overlap in the sense they both lead to black people being killed 

    But this is what I am uncertain about, I always assumed BLM was about the deaths of black people in unnecessary ways but specifically through police unlawful action. However its about black lives meaning we dont want any black people being killed ?

    But we dont seem to get even remotely the same reaction around the killing of black people in gang violence. That link I posted talks about 50 people getting shot and some killed in one weekend in Chicago !!! Of course their are people in these communities that care and know about the violence but outside of that type of support it seems not to be really news worthy

    So what I am asking is does this mean BLM is more about examples of racism generally and not so much about  the killings of black people? And the reality of the support of BLM  is its different types of people from different backgrounds but I have seen people on CNN talk about how deeply racist and dysfunctional the USA is and how US citizens dont want to accept the reality of what the USA is ....I am not an American citizen but those types of comments always annoy me because they suggest a simple target for a complicated debate about what we think about the general state of the USA? So I reject the premise of the view that the USA is deeply racist and dysfunctional and also I wouldn't need to refresh the history of the Slave trade and how this finally ended during the American Civil War

    Another misunderstanding people have is that the economic success of countries like USA and the EU  was it wasnt just about the contribution black slaves made in southern states  or the impact colonialism had on the trajectory of the various EU countries. Yes these things would  not have contributed but they are not the  main reason. 

    Anyway in closing why does their seem to be  a greater global support for BLM but its framed as " killings of African American by police " but you can have 20 civilians  killed in gang violence and that's not seen as something that civil societies rally around ?

    I have read several opinions on this but I dont have an answer that explains the response we see ....am I missing something?

     

    It's about short term goals of political partisans... 

    You need to point to some 'evil' and have people consolidate around. 

    That mentioned gang voilence kills more black people daily than police yearly, but to deal with that, you'd have to talk about some unconfortable truths and wade through some deficiencies and disfunctionalities. People don't want that, often don't understand that, and thus it's much harder to sell, especially if there needs to be work done and some self sacrifice (like with things related to overpopultion, and overconsumption - which are the underlying reasons of all the climate woes we have produced in a collateral damage). 

    No, it's easier to point to some mythical bad guy blocking you and making you miserable, like white, straight, masculine male and its power enforcer the police. These two are almost as vilified for all the bad things as were the jews prior to WW2, who were "hoarding wealth, stealing from nations they do not identify with, and corrupt wealthy and politicians to oppress poor working people" 

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