Darkpriest
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Posts posted by Darkpriest
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8 minutes ago, Elerond said:
New Zealand probably isn't best example considering their official equipment numbers. If arms stocked somewhere they didn't have much equipment to give in first place.
It was meant as a joke, no one serious thought NZ would make a significant impact. The US and EU stockpiles per CNBC, thats another case
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Behind UKs decision - paywalled
https://www.ft.com/content/756e81d1-b2a6-4580-9054-206386353c4e
In essence, spike in yields caused insufferable pension funds losses and margin calls.
Expect similar in US. Although bonds sell off in US also stopped after BoE panicked
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4 minutes ago, Malcador said:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html
Probably just CNBC trying to subtly hustle for more money to LM, but is a frightful expenditure of gear in modern war.
I know this will be a bit funny, but New Zealand said they cannot support UA any longer with equipment, because what UA wants, they don't have it anymore and it would take months to procure.
They mentioned though that they might still send something, what UA will ask for and they will have it available
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Well anyway, Bank of England throws a towel and intervenes in the Bond market, before it even started a real fight with inflation
Still, a long period of Stagflation is a better end result than a full blown debt crisis.
I expect ECB to fold soon as well, as the current sell off so far was at a level of Eurozone crisis.
All eyes on J. Powell today... If he will join the club to help stabilize crashed debt and fx markets.
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1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:
And as much as we love to speak, who is in deeper **** now, we all kind of forgetting about China… IMHO The invasion cost them much more than EU. We’ll see how long they will take it from behind, before they manage to do some interferring action.
Yeah, Yuan was bound to fall, as the housing bubble in China got out of hand and started to fall apart since last year. The USD str only accelerates the fall. Same as Japan and the MMT fail with BoJ policy and Yen.
Both of the countries have been selling US TSY trying to fix their CCY by some form of fixing or selling USDs
China also was vocal about US policies hurting the currencies and that rest of the world pays for US policy failures as they right now export inflation from USA to other areas of the World.
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35 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:
@Darkpriest
I understand your worries, but Thankfully, not being able to afford to give much more ‘aid’ did not stop the allies from providing the aid to Soviet Union against Hitler, else many Slavs on this board would not be commenting on this board these days
So far, the West got the memo… Doing nothing would in the end cost us much more. The extremists, nationalists and neonazis would rise to power anyway, just with much bigger flow of money to fund their collaboration from Russia… Our family lived under their boots for 41 years, and we do not want to experience forced evictions and jailing on daily basis again
Abkut the narrativea, I agree with this guy on a lot of points
https://morningporridge.com/blog/blains-morning-porridge/changing-the-narrative-one-lie-at-a-time/
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12 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:
I bet Ukrainian people would do anything to be able to worry about life under an underperforming economy instead of living under Nuclear threats and ongoing genicide…
Sure, I wonder how many people in EU will keep wanting to support that though.
While we should be doing that, the issue is, as UK case shows, you cannot reslove current issues with more debt as central banks are hell bent on dealing with inflation and currency devaluations. You will only make things worse and you will get elected more radical, less UA helping governments. EU certainly cannot afford much more 'aid'.
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3 hours ago, BruceVC said:
More or less the same as 2008, they will ride the storm and the markets will recover as always
My UK family are more upset with things like BREXIT outstanding issues and current economic policies from Truss on the "mini-budget " but its too early to predict
But your predictions have never been accurate because all you do is repeat what the ZH says? You have made numerous predictions as statements of fact and none of them have been true...these include
- oil price getting to $140
- Gas price crashing the EU by July
- The collapse of the EU economy by third quarter, now you pushing it to fourth quarter
- The end of the $ as the worlds reserve currency because the $ has been " weaponized "
- The creation of a new world economic order where Russia is going to create viable institutions to the likes of the current established Western economic structures
And then no one knew Truss was going to become the UK PM or what policies she was going implement or how the markets would respond with these tax cuts and the impact to the pound
So all ZH makes is predictions on things that have nothing to do with Putins War, sure they get some things right. Its easy to do that when central banks raise interest rates which always have an impact on a countries economy especially while the world is battling global inflation
But what you still wrong about is the West didn't goad Putin into invading Ukraine. His arrogance and belief that the West wouldn't respond effectively led to this. The economic fallout from this is on Putin
And the sanctions are never going to stop until Putins War is over, the West is never going to accept the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and this threat to the stability of the EU
I like you and I enjoy your posts but I dont take your predictions seriously because they mostly ZH hyperbole and its about anti-Western sentiment
I'll bite this.
1) Oil - I've mentioned that the rising oil price will break economies, I've said that at 130, the next recession is guaranteed. We did not reach 140+ ONLY BECAUSE China went into a semi shutdow on economic activity with their 0 COVID policy, and at the same time Biden has been draining SPR as otherwise the midterms would be a garbage for Dems. 'Paper' Oil market currently is out of sync with realities of the Supply side and while in the USD terms Oil seems to be cheaper, this is largely a factor of the ultra strong USD (keeps getting higher to new historic heights at least per Bloombergs dollar index). Sauds have warned a couple times that the current price is distorted and too low. For non-USD countries, the lower USD price is of little value when their currencies crater against the USD. They still pay a lot for Oil in terms of local purchasing power.
Guess what, at some point SPR MUST be refilled and China re-opens.
Edit: for historic context look at SPR in the 5y range
The 140 was also a Goldmans estimate and some of the banks are now still even more aggresive on the Oil price than mine 100-110 range for the mid winter. Some are at 125.
OPEC+has been consistently delivering quatas below the target and recently they approved a significant reduction to the supply side.
2) Not sure how you describe the current state of EU economy if not crushed by the energy prices resulting from the gas crunch... (and high oil price in EU terms). I mean, this is an end of Q3 and how much worse it has to get on the EU debt/currency/stocks if this is not enough? And I've been pointing to end of Q3/beginning of Q4 2022 from at least mid 2021 on this forum for a major economic crisis.
3) I believe i mentioned this to be a target for 5-10y fwd as a result of USD caused turmoils and lack of trust in political safety (few want to be allowed to be blackmailed). The move to more commodity centric power structure is also described by top dogs in financial markets, see people like Zoltan P.
4) Well, the BRICS is certainly not being dissolved, and as long as Russia is at War, this will not progress further. However, Russia has not been cut off from the global markets and is still able to do a lot of business. It still has some pull in politics due to being a natural resources giant. It definately did not collapse as people predicted, although I had make jokes about a flash crash of R(o)uble as well.
I'm seriously worried here, that people do not even read things or see who is the article sourced from and posted on the ZH page.
I'll write about the rest of your commentary later on. It's already a wall of text
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For the 'unbelievers' such as @xzar_monty, i present you also some more freebies...
Now, the how much more pain before the bottom we hit, depends on the Oct earnings season, especially the fwd guidance by the companies. If those will be in majority misses against expectations, and we see no intervention by central bankers to calm down the debt / fx markets, stocks will crater on the P/E catching up its correlation to some other metrics and VIX will explode higher to catch up to MOVE. Looking by latest production increase withdrawal by Apple, the fwd guidance looks to be grim.
All brought to you by Dems stimmies in 2021, Fed Powel chicken in 2021 to hold his chair, and goading Russia by US and UK, which led to invasion of Ukraine, and then Western economies crippling themselves with sanctions against the commodities giant - Russia.
Like a clockwork... My mantra of end of Q3/early Q4 crash...
How are your friends in banking feeling on the sentiment now @BruceVC?
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1 minute ago, Elerond said:
Considering it has been over 7 months and main target seem to have been Nord Stream 1, that Biden's statement seem bit stretch to use especially when rest of Biden's speech was about sanctions.
It might, but it sure does give a field day, should you look at it in the vacuum.
Looking however at parties, who benefit the most, US is up there, next to Ukraine and to less extent Poland.
Unfortunate for the wholse situation is the fact that this ex-Minister has really good ties with US political class, especially dems. I suspect that this may change soon, or we will hear the old story of 'my account got hacked'
Some 'tinfoil' theory is that this was a price of UA for bleeding more of their people. To make sure that gas does not flow to EU without UA and Poland routes. This would block the incoming winter hesitance and pressure on UA. Again, unfortunately coming coincidentally at the same time when the spat over UA transit escalates.
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The ****?
Former Polish Foreign affairs minister said what?
Implying US is behind the sabotage?
Can't be true... I mean it can, but damn... Can't believe it. Most likely some lapse of mind and lack of political awareness... He beat even Truss in the race to the bottom of intelectual cesspool. Ape level of awareness...
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Just now, BruceVC said:
Is the oil price still going to get to $140?
Not that high due to recession and current debt issues, but it will go north of 100 around mid winter. 100-110 range, but going higher is still possible, if EU will have to burn oil instead of gas for energy needs.
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15 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:
Furnishing your predictions with zerohedge links is like basing your world history on von Däniken, though.
Because you most likely do not have subscribtions to TSY auction services or i would be surprised if you are not paywalled even on Bloomberg.
I guess providing a lin with free info is bad...
Check your local bond market and fx rate, plus check your local stock market, and lastly check your local goods and services prices... and owners of businesses sentiment...
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Meanwhile, things are crashing bad.
I expect global central banks to intervene by the end of next week...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gruesome-tailing-2y-auction-sends-yields-session-high-10y-399
Otherwise 2008 will be peanuts...
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1 minute ago, Chilloutman said:
so it seems pipes were blown up, and for that you need subs. Who in that region operate subs? Does poland even have subs? If so its master play on Poland side xD
edit: they have one sub!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ships_of_the_Polish_Navy#Submarines_(1)
You do not need subs, you can have a good divers team with the right equipment. That's why it can be anybody...
Three theories appear.
1) Russians, to put a blme on someone and be able to escalate. Although it does seem counterproductive as they lose leverage of being able to pump gas at will.
2) Ukraine, to make sure that EU will be trapped and will have to work out alternatives for RU gas. They have divers capable of such feats.
3) US, as Biden said, that they will make sure NS2 will never start to operate. This would nake sure EU is tight on US energy leash. They for sure have the means.
More tinfoily
4) Poland, to put the gas pipe on Poland soil to be more crucial and gwt rid of the thorn that NS was... Current Gov is crazy and very anti-German. They have teams capable of such feats
5) some Eco freaks, who want 'greenification' of energy in EU. Since it is near Denmark, Sweden, some freaks like that live there, although being capable of such a feat is very questionable.
Really, hard to say, who gains the most. EU, especially Germany, loses the most though...
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43 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:
If Im reading these articles correctly, the US can export 11.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d): U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
And the entire EU only imported a total of 80 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in Y2021: Liquefied natural gas (europa.eu)
Im not so good at maths so I wont bother converting the feet into meters but maybe its doable? Of course, transportations costs would scuttle the whole deal.
That is, if there will not be another mysterious accident at LNG terminal in US whivh put it off line for two months this summer.
Btw, in coincidence Ukraine pursues arbitrage even harder on fees from Gasprom at the time when those leaks got out of hand. I think they are playing this hand badly as Russia said it will hold UA pipeflows should they continue to do that.
Gas prices already go vertical... And the winter apparently is coming sooner, at least based on the forecasts for EU for the next two weeks
Edit: you also need to be able to unload such capacities and trun liquid into gas again... Imagine if something happens at one of such stations in EU
Edit 2: in case there was a contingency to use oil for gas, think again... OPEC+ informed on heavy cuts, so the price is prompt for going up at a rapid pace again...
I've been telling that this eco war will be most deatructive to EU and harmful to US and Russia
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5 hours ago, Gorth said:
The Russian ministry of defense admits they made a rounding error somewhere... instead of mobilizing another 300000 men to send to the front, they accidentally rounded up 1000000 men to send to Ukraine soon. Hence the widespread dissatisfaction
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63036985
Edit: The Soviet army is calling from 1942 and wants its troops back!
"It's just statistics"
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43 minutes ago, pmp10 said:
Over the last 24 hours both Nord Stream pipelines have sprung mysterious leaks.
Plenty of vulnerable gas pipelines in the area, especially the ones from Norway.
Energy war escalates.Yeah... If someone sabotaged Russian pipelines to EU, then expect accidents soon around Norways pipelines, etc.
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1 hour ago, BruceVC said:
I doubt it, where would all the people immigrate to when they come from failed states in those regions?
Import failed states, become failed states?
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1 minute ago, Gfted1 said:
Would the bomber even make it to its destination? Doubtful.
Russia better use an IRBM.
True, might accidentally fall from the sky on a Russian soil, given the state of some of the equipment, but would the missile had well maintained targetting and delivery mechanism? There is a risk there too!
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39 minutes ago, pmp10 said:
Interesting reactions to Putin's nuclear saber rattling:
Zelenskyy thinks that Putin isn't bluffing.
US warns Russia over nuclear weapons use via private channels.So what options do they have except let him win?
This will be a one big hot spot and everything might be on the table.
Saw this somewhere.
Now, I wonder if Russians will pull it off and lift a strat bomber in the air, loaded with the munitions and tell UA to cease fire and withdraw. I expect a really bad scenario. They might want to wait for some good weather conditions to make sure that potential fallout will not reach NATO soil, but even that is not given if there are mad ruskies at the helm...
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46 minutes ago, Gorth said:
Quoting the forum guidelines: Discrimination: Obsidian has a zero-tolerance policy with regard to racial, ethnic, gender, religious, disablement, and/or sexually discriminating remarks.
Calling somebody a harlot for being female (regardless of how infuriating that person is) is crossing the line and I would recommend reconsidering the choice of words.
Edit: Thread pruned. Let me know if I missed any pots on the subject?
Sure, although i did not call her for being a specific gender. That's gross misinterprretation of the adjective i've used and the situation. It was aimed at the person and qualities of a character. If she was a male I would probably used a gender specific BD-DH.
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1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:
We’ll see. The current war changed the minds of a lot of Pro-Russian politicians. Prime example would be Czech president Zeman, who had very strong rhetoric about some western actions in the past, and had a lot of praise ofr russian way. That all changed on February 24, when he strongly condemned the russian aggression and voiced support to Ukraine and heavy sanctions against Russia, and he did not change his mind until now.
Let me expand this PoV a bit.
Right now ECB is trying to keep the spread between bonda of different countries of EUR zone tight by selling less toxic and buying more toxic bonds.
Italy right now hs about 150% debt to GDP, meaning their bonda are the most toxic out there.
The Right wing, populistic government will have to do something to deal with worsening economic situation.
It has two doors:
1) Rely on EU and ECB, against both of which they were quite vocal about, and where some policies really do not allign well. They are most likely do the same thing as Truss atempted in UK. Spend your way out of the crisis. This will not work, will crash IT bonds and drag EUR with it, and once the IT bond yields will skyrocket, IT debt crisis will be bigger than Greece in times of infamous PIIGS. The issue is, Lagarde and Von der L will happily let the right wing gov to crash... Until another early election.
2) Keep sticking to 'EU elites' and say that "sanctions need to end as IT suffers more than Russia on sanctions and migrants are still flooding Italy". This rheotric will be accepted by their suppprters and IT will join Orban in anti sanctions club
I believe the option 2 is more likely, but that's an old cynic in me...
If you want to understand how badly Truss effed up, read this blog. I value this guys cool headed approach with a dose of UK humor.
Russia better use an IRBM.
Ukraine Conflict - "Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed"
in Way Off-Topic
Posted
Some pro-Russian propaganda piece...
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-war-has-just-begun