Darkpriest

Russians will never give up on Crimea, they will sooner use nukes than drop Sevastopol naval base.

They've made a strategic mistake of attacking Ukraine mainland. As I've said some time ago, on 2nd or 3rd day, from reliable and well set sources. Ukraine was ready to drop the rest of Donbas and Lukhansk Oblast and some narrow land bridge to Crimea, if Russia would go in with the show of force there, at the cost of hard sanctions on Russians. (no one will officially admit that) However, the moment they went into major hubs and Ukraine proper, this became Nation's war, one which is un-winnable by Russians, unless they will flatten cities and start killing civilians on purpose in large numbers. Ukraine will have to make concessions, and most likely they will give up Crimea, and the rest of now ruined Donbas and Lukhansk Oblast including the port city of Mariupol, but they will not carve out a land bridge to Crimea easily on a deal, and they might want to get financial reparations from Belarus on the same deal or even outright sacrifice of Lukashenko by Russians (the latter never having a chance of happening unless Russian already have a different pupper for Belarus) .

Energy chaos, developing. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/chaos-erupts-energy-markets-european-gas-jumps-60 Meanwhile, Bidens admin growing to reality of having forego environmental rhetoric? https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/white-house-quietly-calls-us-oil-companies-increase-production https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-surges-super-backwardation-after-opec-sticks-production-plan-shuns-bidens-demands

I'm ready to give Russians a benefit of a doubt on this claim. This harlot proved incompetent enough already in the past.

A couple interesting economic related links, if you can read without a bias. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-hits-110-biden-begins-sotu-address-goldman-says-emergency-oil-release-wont-do-jack https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/game-over-russia-be-technical-default-within-hours https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/big-oil-turning-its-back-russia

Meanwhile Oil hits 111, Wheat at over 1050. If Oil hits 150 you will have serious recession, Atlanta FED already puts Q1 growth at 0.0 If Oil hits 200 we will experience 2008 on steroids.... Corn crossing 740, higher only during major financial crisises in the last 15 years Food prices will soar this Q... We really better hope this ends very soon... I'm not sure how many of forum goers were working adults in 2008, but it was ugly...

Not directly, but the impact on the western economies, while they are still coping with already high inflation and supply chain disruptions.

Yeah, this is what worries me a bit. If there is no real path to normalization, then Putin's game is hell or high water.

Well, does it become sustainable long term? Base energy costs are already extremly high, what would be the cost pressure on the society? Sure, producers might get it running at that price, but economy might not be able to withstand it, especially not the lower end of the income range within the societies.

They need to de-escalate, otherwise Russian doctrine will guide into a direction, that if NATO is already providing equipment and manpower, and now provides advanced machinery to fight, it is not much different than an act of war, especially in the full economic ties cut-off. Russians will have nothing to lose via escalation and at least they will be able to bring pain back. Diplomacy is about striking a balance, even if uneasy, because if the other side is faced with being 'cancelled', what is a path back to 'normality' ?

Meanwhile Oil at 107 intraday, and if it will come anywhere close to 120 prior to any sanctions on Russian Oil, you will see a lot of pain on the Western economies. Energy and food inflation will push govs to settle with Russians or they will face unrest at home.

Wel, the whole belt road set of countries, and thoae who still want to buy stuff from Russia. You have Pakistan, Iran, All the Post soviet republics and land locked countries there, Afghanistan, Syria, most likely Turkey as well, Iraq, India is also interested in trading with Russia. China can also use it for inclusion of some of African states, where they have significant leverage. I have no idea how the countries in the south east Asia work, but I guess they would be interested in using that as well. South American countries like Venezuela, Brasil can jump on board as well, etc.

I'd put it as a rumor to make them look much worse. Some still have some first hand stories of the great hunger. However, fields are large areas of flat land, and military hardware will not really look, where they go through when operating, hence a lot of collateral damage is expected. Edit: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/breadbasket-world-choked-russian-invasion-wheat-prices-soar

Fixed spelling. TY, I would have never thought, I could have made an error while using a phone!

Wheat is at the highest price ever registered (except 2008 collapse of the markets) , closing in on a 1000 USD (i believe the unit is 5 000 bushels)

Seems there are more instances of looting, however not sure to what extent and if it's true that in some areas looters are ought to be shot on site by militia members or soldiers. One thing as someone observed: "" "" Something perhaps worth noting for some is the fact that as the nation crumbles amid the invasion, the looting only appears to be at supermarkets - with people truly in desperate need of bread and milk - and oddly not big-screen televisions, Louis Vuitton purses, and PlayStations...

Ukraine now - Faith, Steel and Javelin

Most likely they will transport pilots to Poland and lift off there for their first mission. Not sure of state of airfields in UA.

Did you actually read and listen to these guys like Jamie Dimon or Zoltan Pozsar at Bloomberg segments? Or it's just being asinine and ignorant to risks a form of virtue? Will Russians suffer? Yes. Will the drop be significant? Yes. Will they collapse and revolt? Unlikely. Does this event strip a lot of 'neutral' institutions and states of their perceived neutrality status? Yes Does it pave way for other, non-west aligned solutions, cartels and economic unions? Most likely Does it endanger the dollar dominance short term? No Does it endanger the dollar dominance mid to long term? You betcha! Western countries are Net Importers of almost everything, from resources to labor and manufacturing. We are good at exporting capital and pollution. Doesn't really build confidence in economic capability in case of major conflict and blockades, does it? Imagine a Pan-Asian union using Chinese CIPS in 5-10years, and payments for Oil, Gas and Gold in CIPS be Yuan denominated. What do you think will happen?

I agree with long term consequences of weaponizing SWIFT. Not sure yet on the scope, but it will lead to the power of countires which are large holders of resources, labor and manufacturing. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jamie-dimon-warns-swift-sanctions-may-bring-unintended-consequences-can-be-circumvented

Effin idiot.... https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mi6-chief-faces-backlash-saying-ukraine-war-about-lgbt-rights

Interesting part to share: "" "" Overall, the Russian military is performing extremely poorly: they still don’t have air superiority due to Ukraine moving its air defences around, and Russian missile strikes having only hit old, static targets. Russia’s attempts to rapidly seize Kyiv while minimising losses to Ukrainian civilians and its infrastructure are resulting in massive losses on their side. According to the Ukrainians, as of Sunday Kyiv claimed to have taken out: 540 IFVs, 16 airplanes, 18 helicopters, 102 tanks, 504 APCs, 1 Buk-1 system, 20 armoured cars, and 5,000 soldiers. The latter is a third of the total losses suffered in the entire Soviet-Afghan war (1979-89).