Darkpriest

Some birds are chirping, that Shoigu (uncovered wide spread corruption, etc.) will be a scapegoat and that Russians will hit a hard stop within 2 weeks as they will run out of funding for the operation and soldiers are beginning to get info, that their operation pay is now worthless... Wonder, how much of a truth that is and how real it may be.

This is why no oil and gas will be touched. https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/energy-shortages-could-threaten-social-cohesion-germany-warns-against-ban-energy-imports

Hah, you know you have a weekend when you can waste time for mindlessly going through youtube. I've found a piece though, which is somewhat funny, because it actually speaks a lot of truth about Russian state of mind.

This is an old vid, but it shows what i believe is most of the engagements. Small scale skirmishes and ambushes on both sides, unless Russians are attacking some critical objective.

This ends the topic of the no-fly zone I guess. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/evacuation-ceasefires-break-down-russian-shelling-resumes-key-port-cities Not sure if it is possible to verify, but it seems Russians gave 5 hours for evacuation, so it wasn't like some media report " the cease fire was broken right away."

Summary of the Putin week. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/putin-panic-goes-global-stocks-puke-bonds-commodities-soar The ripple effect will now start its path to a destruction of much of wealth as liquidity is drained. I do hope talks over weekend will happen and will ease the outlook for the markets, as the alternative of a much longer conflict is not something I'd like to experience. And for the folks in US '' '' '' On Thursday, for the first time ever, a U.S. city breached the $5/gal per gallon average - this is San Francisco '' '' ''

Hungary... '' '' ' moments ago Hungary - one of Europe's most grain rich nations - has circled the wagons and realizing which way the wind is blowing, just announced that it will banning all grain exports effective immediately, in a statement . https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/hungary-ban-grain-exports-effective-182644540.html Which net producer is next?

They'll stop sending to Africa and Egypt. It will cause spike in prices, revolt andass flood of immigrants to EU at time of economic difficulties and trying to explain why food prices, energy prices and heating are super expensive. You will get more support for populists.

Brace for it..... https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fra-ois-explodes-here-only-chart-powell-closely-watching-and-why-it-soaring

Food prices skyrocketing https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/russia-recommends-fertilizer-makers-halt-all-exports

Opinions? https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinas-military-strategists-watching-ukraine-war-closely-eye-taiwan

In short, no. It's like asking, if all Germanic tribes are the same. Once i saw this vid, which seemed interesting. Not on tribes, but how Russia came to be.

Ehhh... More economic pain? ----- Little known companies like Ukraine's Cryoin play large roles in the global production of semiconductors. Cryoin, for example, makes the neon gas used to power lasers that make patterns on chips. It supplies to the U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, China, and Taiwan - and the ripple effects of disruption in its supply "can be felt around the world," the report says.

Also, some info onnwhere the food price increase is likely hit first. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/these-countries-face-unprecedented-hunger-crises-due-ukraine-war

The moment the Indian guy realized he effed up. It shows though anti-US rhetoric in there

Interesting table

Peace talks started, i doubt any breakthrough will take place.

Seems Iran might get their deal in the process Decision makers defending not crossing 120USD a barrel. It touched 119.78 intraday during EU open Now after Iran rumor that within 72h the deal will be signed, Oil dropped to 112

You are looking at the snippet and missing a lot of things https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2022-03-03/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/commodities-aluminium-hits-record-top-oil-wheat-multi-year-highs-supply-woes-2022-03-03/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-03/european-gas-rally-continues-with-focus-on-sanctions-on-russia https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-02/russia-s-war-in-ukraine-disrupts-global-fertilizer-trade-increasing-food-costs And this is in the environment of already highest inflation in 40yrs, near 0 rates of FED and ECB, ongoing QE (although FED is ending it in March), trillions more on balance sheets of central banks, and highest soverign debt in history in Western Economies. At the same time you still have very high valuations of assets, even with the recent 15-20% drop from ATH. If the conflict does not end soon, and we have no view for some sort of normaliztion, 2008 will look like a childs play... Especially if they will target Russian Oil and Gas directly.

Aha, and the trigger that turned initial valuations upside down was? There sure are no overvalued assets and excessive leverage now, right? Have a read through, while not entirely spot on, a lot of it is. It's an older article. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shades-2008-oil-decouples-everything

Yeah, 2008 also started with some people betting on the wrong thing...

First official victims of Oil spiking to 118 USD https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/citi-stopped-out-oil-short-double-digit-loss-td-sees-oil-spiking-145 Expect much more turmoil, should this continue at this pace. Not to mention price of food spiking, example Wheat at 1130 while 3 weeks ago it was at 730... Start calculating. To put this into perspective, the highest ever price was in the middle of the crisis in 2008 and it was at around 1200, that led to a lot of political turmoil, especially in the middle east.

Interesting points for consideration Economic: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/zoltan-pozsar-warns-russian-sanctions-threaten-dollars-reserve-status Political: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/china-told-russia-delay-ukraine-invasion-until-after-olympics-us-officials

Sure, if by some effects you mean recession or in extreme even depression, layoffs and mass unrest, yeah, then that is some effects. You are also missing a piece, that rates are still at or near 0 and QE is still printing money at already highest inflation in 40years... There is no chance for printing more money, unless you desire to go full Weimar republic. If you will raise rates, you will blow up ability to run country budgets as the burden of money interest on rolling debt will kill it, it will also crash stock markets as a lot of companies are neck deep in debt. You will also experience mass evictions of people unable to meet their mortgage payments. There is a reason why ECB and FED are so afraid of hiking rates and ending QE at faster pace. They know that rates beyond 2.5 will kill sovering debt and a lot of economy

Putin has to make some propaganda claim of success, so Ukraine WILL have to make some concessions, and Putin cannot lose what he already has. I expect there will be a series of tlks how they recognize Zelensky as legitimate leade and people of Ukraine proved that for them it is their leader, however russian people still want to be a part of russia with their homes and land, etc. Some scapegoating, throwing a couple of generals and some intelligemce brass under the bus as traitors with ill intents, possibly replacing current leadership of Donbas and Lukhansk republics, throwing some of Lukashenkos assets in as reparations, etc. Putin has to have something to save face and be able to negotiate back access to world economy in a couple of years. Otherwise, he will sooner flatten eastern UA and rule over wasteland than sign something that will not let him have his propaganda win at home.