pmp10

Well, it's done. After 30 minutes of anti-western ranting Putin singed the deals with separatists. Russia is now officially claiming Luhansk , Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as their own. No going back now to any discussions with Ukraine now. Chances for any long term peace until one side is completely defeated are likely also dead.

You know we could hair-split these excuses all day long. Fundamentally one side is conscripting thousands and the other thinks western made 25mm auto-cannon is an unacceptable escalation. The point being that if wars are won on willpower then Ukraine is looking at a rough future.

The key-word being 'western', same as with tanks. It's true that BMP-1s and its variants have been delivered but let's not kid over selves, that is Khrushchev-era design. AFAIK that was one of industry proposals that German government blocked. In which case why doesn't this apply to APCs? They can somehow support American M113s, British Spartans, Finish XA-185s, Dutch YPR-765s and more.

That's the funny thing about it. Western APCs are okay and have been delivered but IFVs are not. This limitation seems especially arbitrary.

Fair enough but doesn't this also apply to HIMARS? They were also undeliverable until it seemed that Ukraine will collapse without them. If supply chains are really an issue then there is whole winter to build them up.

US couldn't even get rid of Maduro and that guy practically wrecked the economy of his country. I'm sure they'd love a neutral regime but I doubt they have any power in the matter.

If that is the whole response then not even US is willing to violate the no-tanks taboo.

Also possible that this one line was deliberately left intact. That remaining NS2 line can still supply Germany. I bet that if other pipelines are stopped this will be the first one Gazprom will be willing to restart. At a price of course.

They could have multiple reasons: warn the west about things to come if they don't force Ukraine to the negotiating table pretend to be the first victim of the upcoming pipeline ripper (definitely not the perpetrator, no sir) divide NATO with accusations and conspiracy theories (was it US? was it Poland?) panic the EU markets to rally the slowly dropping gas prices punish Germany for taking over Russian energy assets And it's not like the pipelines were looking to be of much use in the short term anyway. Doesn't mean they did it of course, but the benefits are there.

We will almost certainly find out in time. If it's Russia it won't be an isolated case, incidentally Baltic pipe is set to open soon. If it isn't Russia the news will leak sooner or later.

Over the last 24 hours both Nord Stream pipelines have sprung mysterious leaks. Plenty of vulnerable gas pipelines in the area, especially the ones from Norway. Energy war escalates.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. I doubt anything will happen over Kherson or Zaporizhzhia that Russians have never taken. Threaten Sevastopol however and we might just see tactical nukes deployed.

Interesting reactions to Putin's nuclear saber rattling: Zelenskyy thinks that Putin isn't bluffing. US warns Russia over nuclear weapons use via private channels. So what options do they have except let him win?

A good RUSI commentary on western response to mobilization. That response will be a even better indication of the future than the handling of upcoming energy squeeze.

If that was it they wouldn't need to stop that transfer of Spanish Leo 2s to Ukraine.

Ukraine is focusing on getting western tanks. Strange priority given the circumstances. They must be desperate to break that political limitation on armaments. If Russian mobilization can't get them at least Leopard 1s they are in serious trouble.

EU finally pays their due in grain export deal. New sanction interpretation will allow the transport of coal and fertilizers through EU. More loopholes and exemptions.

Decisive. Experts should have seen by April that sanctions (at least as implemented) were never going to work. Putin is not the only one to double-down on failure.

And how much ass-kicking would Ukraine do without assistance? Military position of Ukraine is direct result of what the west will and will not do.

I'll spare everyone another rant on making Russia a 'pariah state' or crushing its economy with 'unprecedented sanctions'. Suffice to say that all that careful escalation management resulted in Russian mobilization. The sudden interest in security council makes me think that not a single thing has been learned.

At UN Biden response to Russian mobilization is making security council more 'inclusive'. The west just can't accept that their soft power has failed.

A little surprising Putin announced it himself. I thought that Shoigu was there for that.

Realistically Russia would need only a small portion of their reserves, so that passivity need not change. Especially if they target the 'right' conscripts. Well, Putin is 2 hours late for supposed speech so either there are last minute negotiations or he is just recompensing all the waiting he had to do in Teheran.

And remaining separatists are also planning referenda on the same dates. Rumors are also flying that Putin will take an official position on the subject tonight. Looking more and more like the point of no return.