Zoraptor

The deal doesn't really mean anything significant. There was no way that Turkey was getting into the EU under the CHP, there's less than no chance it will under the AKP. The cash is nice, but less than the refugees would be costing. It's basically the Tukrish leadership and the EU pretending to like each other for political and PR reasons plus a sop to Erdogan's ego. Could be something interesting coming up though, there are multiple reports of hundreds of tanks and AFVs being moved from western Turkey towards Syria. Heh, that's more or less exactly what I said about the Turkish version. Can't say I'd be in the least bit surprised if their analysis of the Russian version is correct too, for all that I believe Turkey was looking for an excuse to act it seems unlikely they'd do something for which there could be conclusive evidence of them outright lying since that would mean at least theoretically no NATO backing.

I'd consider it the worst of the IE games as well, but still consider it a good game overall and worth playing. It has a distinctly mechanistic feel to it that the others lack and feels far more linear and 'grindy' than even its predecessor.

Yep. Same with Facebook games. Farmville was the next great thing and Zynga had a licence to print money- right up until they didn't- and everyone thought FB games would be the next big thing. In reality 'Discovery' is even harder on mobile platforms, one or two titles do very well but most, don't. Who knows, maybe Game of War or whatever the big mobile game is at the moment will have such successful sequels that they can hire Mariah Carey and Kate Upton to do adverts simultaneously instead of sequentially, but I won't be betting on it.

Merkel is on the left? If she is, it's only on the refugee issue, and then only because she wants to kick the can of Germany's impending demographic crisis further down the road instead of dealing with the issue.

The US hasn't ever (deliberately, some air drops have gone astray) directly supplied ISIS as its ultimate origin is from Al Qaeda in Iraq who was their most implacable enemy there; some of the Gulf States did supply them, though not openly and both supplied 'moderate' groups who defected to ISIS in 2013-14. But most of their US equipment stocks come from the numerous Iraqi and Kurdish bases they overran in 2014. ISIS having stocks of US ammo isn't an issue unless it can be shown it was a recent acquisition, and from a 'friendly' state. Even then we won't hear about it, there would just be some fist waving on the quiet.

They've been getting US+ a few others (Germany at least) small arms for a while now. I wouldn't expect anything more significant than that and targeted air strikes though, even when under their new umbrella organisation. The problem with anything more significant is that they'd be increasingly likely to be used against Turkey- who strongly dislikes even small arms supplies- and their proxies rather than ISIS; and have almost no chance of being used against the Syrian Army. Indeed, fighting with Turkish proxies like Al Nusra and Ahrar ash Sham is directly helpful towards the Syrian Government since it massively narrows the rebel supply line into Aleppo as well as dividing the rebel forces. Plus, the Syrian Kurds are fundamentally reluctant to expand outside of Kurdish regions and cannot politically be the main force attacking places like Raqqa/ Deir ez Zor or especially the big population centres held in the north near to Turkey like Manbij or El Bab. Same general principle applies for Russia as well since the YPG isn't strictly their allies, though they certainly aren't their enemies, if they want to trouble the Turks they'll put SAMs into government controlled Hassakeh rather than arm the Kurds directly as that would annoy the Syrian Government [and Iraq, and Iran] too much.

Is Hilary related to Bernie Wiliams? (She was, after all, named after world famous Hamiltron apiarist Edmund Hillary, who reinforced his fame by climbing Everest a few years after her birth)

I don't think POE2 being made was ever a question, I'm just wondering will it be via KS or did they make enough money for a sequel. Unless KS (or equivalent) has been too much of a pain in the arse it makes a very useful pre-order system, less cut taken, no need to have Paradox publishing at the start, built in and sustained early publicity etc. I'm not entirely sure they've found the overall 'kickstarter experience' to be worth those advantages though, at least for a sequel.

That would be moronic, it isn't even slightly legit and would be a clear article 5 situation. A Turkish 'copter having a ping at some YPG around Hassakah as happened yesterday, that's fair game for a warning then shoot down. There are pics of the S-400 at Hmemeim airbase from today. Some ambiguity is possible since S-400 is a direct evolution of the S-300 and certain elements of each system are interchangeable, but it certainly seems legit. In these circumstances the Russians are not going to blink, that's why shooting a plane was fundamentally stupid; if they say they're going to deploy something at the moment then they will deploy, anything else sends exactly the wrong message to Turkey. To quote Barbie "Math is hard!". The radar trace has the Su24 at a near constant 300kph or slightly above, including during intrusion (300kph == 5km/ min or 1km per 12s, so intrusion speed was 300-375kph). Two other relevant bits of information too, the Russian navigator claims the Su24 was following a normal flight path home, which would allow for setting up of cameras to capture a shoot down*, it would just be a matter of waiting; and allegedly (ie not confirmed) communications between Russian planes and coalition ones are not supposed to be on the standard Guard frequency but on a separate frequency. Both are unconfirmed but plausible, since ISIS could easily monitor any Guard communications and the Su24 had finished bombing and was returning to base. If true the 2nd would explain why the Russians were potentially not monitoring Guard**, they'd have been monitoring the other channel, and potentially why the Turkish planes did not contact the Su24, only the radar station and why the Russians made that specific statement. *that's how the Serbs shot down a F117 with a venerable Sa-3 despite it being theoretically incapable of targeting an F117, the plane used the same return path on a regular schedule so they knew where it would be. ** it's unclear if they should have been anyway, it's for use in international or foreign airspace and is not usually required to be monitored if you're in the foreign airspace by direct invitation of that country, at that point it becomes friendly airspace.

I don't know whether that was significant, so far as I am aware the warnings did not identify their origin as being radar station or plane. Probably depends on when the statement was said and whether the Russians presumed warnings would be sent by the planes, certainly the pilot himself seems to give a blunt denial of receiving any warnings whatsoever in his interview. One of the more interesting things is that you can extrapolate back on the Turkish radar plot to see when the jets turned towards Turkish airspace, and the only way the Turkish story works is if the Su24 was flying at around 300kph and around 5 minutes flight time towards Turkey but 600kph when intruding, both are way below the average cruise speed for a military jet of around 900kph (which would give about 1.30 flight time towards Turkey and a ~6s intrusion, per the trace). Some discrepancy might be explained by dropping bombs during the trace, but it's well known that most russian bomb drops are semi dumb computer assisted releases, not actual ground attack (due to Sa-7 etc they stay at 5000m+) Russia is also sending S400 SAMs to Syria now, not exactly unexpected.

Because it would piss the Turks off, mostly, since they're making money from the trade too. The financial information from the abu Sayyaf raid made the links between Turkey and ISIS explicit. It doesn't have anything to do with direct US economic interests, just not wanting to annoy an ally and the belief that with limited attacks ISIS could be funnelled to attack the right people, ie Assad and pro Iran Shia in Iraq. Russia started bombing the oil infrastructure in a big way a week or so ago, and I think it's fair to say that Turkey has shown some annoyance in their response.

Heh, the 'Turkman' commander who was machine gunning the pilots in their parachutes is actually a proper Turk citizen, it seems, and a prominent member of their phalangist/ fascist movement the Grey Wolves. Might be wise for him to invest in a lifetime supply of EDTA... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=subNDl0FFl0 is the audio (ignore the video, it's stock) released by the Turkish air force. Means pretty much literally nothing though, it's in english which russian pilots are not required to learn and does not identify which craft it's directed at in any way. There are examples of other warning that have been given in similar circumstances, eg when the Vincennes shot down IranAir655 it identified airspeed, aircraft type and tried various frequencies. OK, so they misidentified speed, aircraft type, and used frequencies that an airbus mostly couldn't monitor, but at least they tried. The Turkish warning which was delivered over a similar time span apparently did none of these things by Turkey's own admission, and there appears to have been no attempt to directly contact or identify the Su24 in any way. It certainly doesn't detract from the distinct impression that it was a deliberated act where a shoot down with pretext was the desired outcome rather than a last resort.

We can both play the emphasis game, I just have to emphasise the one, confirmed, lock during the one, confirmed, intrusion. As I said, I presumed you were talking about the two separate incidents, not two locks during the same one. Easy mistake to make given you were talking about a 2nd, seemingly mythically confirmed by Russia intrusion at the same time. So, no Russian confirmation of the 2nd incident, you just believe NATO? Fair enough, so far as it goes, but you were talking explicitly about Russia admitting two incidents, which it seems never happened and only one was admitted to. That's significantly beyond simply not believing the Russian version, that's putting words into their mouths.

Mostly I'm wondering what the asterisks you're going on about, there's a whole lot of windmill tilting going on there. The Turkish accusation was that the Su-30 was in their airspace for minutes, it's them saying that nothing to do with me saying it, and since you referred to 2 F16s being locked onto I presumed you meant the two incidents in which that happened, one of which was the Mig29 which everyone agrees wasn't in Turkish airspace and Turkey did claim was russian. As for the quoted section got an actual cite, from Russian officials, for an admission to both incursions? Because both the AJE Moscow correspondent and RT said today that only one incident had been admitted to, by Russia, and everything else I've seen is people citing the Turkish accusation and Russian admission, singular. As for the pilot, he may have been rescued. Should be taken with large grain of salt until there's official confirmation/ pictures, of course, though the rebels are claiming both are dead still. The navigator is definitely dead, and definitely shot while descending by Turkish proxies. An interesting aside is that the Russians are insisting their helicopter was destroyed by a mortar despite the pretty clear video evidence it was destroyed on the ground after abandonment and not by a mortar, presumably because the sight of a clearly german origin, US manufactured TOW destroying the helicopter would be very inflammatory if admitted to.

You could actually run across the Turkish territory faster than their initial claim, it's only 1.5-2km wide, you can measure it yourself. Unsurprisingly Turkey has rather enlarged and enhanced the width of that territorial peninsula on their radar trace, it's extremely narrow. However, the initial claim may well have either been a translation error or the period in Turkey's self declared exclusion zone rather than actual intrusion. Either way that story lasted about 5 minutes itself before it was changed. Deliberate shooting of a Russian plane by the Turks equals Illuminati conspiracy theories. Hahaha, you're mental. Yeah, not exactly rational analysis. Even according to the Turkish story the jet must have been either fired on while outside Turkish airspace or hit while outside it, both of which are legally dubious and both of which say it was both 100% deliberate action and 100% deliberate escalation. There's no way at all that it wasn't calculated, it was the right target- the oldest plane the Russians have in theatre- and not a fighter as various media refer to it as- there were cameras, plural, ready to capture the moment the plane was hit not just when it crashed, the pilots were captured by a direct Turkish proxy and the more general Turkish acts in the area have been consistent with such an interpretation. Not only have they shot down the russian jet, they've also attacked the closest thing to genuinely moderate rebels (YPG) repeatedly and their known proxies have been routinely attacking the specific anti-ISIS force on the ground as well. The worst thing is the execution of the pilots by the Turkish proxies though. For those defending Turkey just imagine if Iran shot down a US warplane and Kataib Hezbollah then machine gunned them in the air and what the response would be and whether anything Iran said would be listened to.

In this case you probably should have googled it yourself first. Russia admitted to one intrusion only, and when they "went further and locked up two F-16Cs with missile locks while still in Turkish territory" one was not in Turkish territory and was- according to the Turks- a Mig29 and hence SyAF, since everyone agrees the Russians have zero actual Migs in theatre. Full reuters quote addressing both issues: Also, official Turkish claim to the UN is 17 seconds of airspace violation which is at least roughly accurate for crossing a 2 km wide strip twice as they claimed.

Plus the Gold Box D&D and Warhammer games too, Twitcher 3 also 50% off.

The turkomen militia* that executed the pilots is Turkeys most direct Syrian proxy of all. Quite apart from not wanting to be them I wouldn't want to be a Turkish helicopter pilot 'accidentally' (very regularly) violating Armenia's air space, since there's a Russian air base in Armenia. *al qaeda affiliated too, of course, hence the watermarking on some of the videos. Looks like there's going to be a lot of tepid responses from politicians, with presumably a whole lot of "what the asterisks were you thinking?" behind closed doors. Plus of course some more "don't bomb Al Qaeda plz" from NATO's sec gen, and dodging the question of where the plane was shot down. Also after Russia bombed a bunch of ISIS oil infrastructure and tankers. That's a whole lot less oil money that won't be finding its way into AKP pockets any more. Turkish proxy Ahrar ash Sham is now attacking a Yezidi village in Afrin along with their Al Qaeda allies, coincidentally.

Russian version now seems to be that the plane was hit 1 km inside the border and crashed 4km inside, with no intrusion. Putin sounds pissed, unsurprisingly. Unconfirmed that the 2nd pilot is also dead. In Latakia no one is PKK aligned. It's Syrian army, various 'FSA' and Al Nusra. The particular Turkish proxy in the area are Turkmen, specifically a rather unpleasant islamist group. Attacks on them and them losing rather badly at the moment is what Turkey is ostensibly annoyed at, though Turkey didn't give a hoot about turkmen in Amerli when it was besieged by ISIS, nor by the current shenanigans by his house Kurd Barzani in Toz Khormato where turkmen were being ethnically cleansed until a shia militia stepped in. Around 2/3 of the Syrian border is controlled by the PKK affiliate YPG though, just not the part near Latakia. The YPG is also by far the biggest faction in the new 'Syrian Democratic Forces' which are meant to be the guys fighting ISIS on the ground for the west, and they've been regularly attacked by the Turkish military in various places. As for long term alliances, so long as Erdogan has the Bosporus and doesn't do anything utterly mental (realistically, far more even than this) he'll have NATO. He also has probably the 3rd most effective rebel group as a proxy, and decent relations with the other two more powerful ones (JAN/ ISIS).

One pilot is dead. Or the rebels made a Weta Workshop level dummy of someone known to be a Russian pilot inside two hours. I think I'd prefer the latter, but it isn't likely. Seems pretty definitive that it was shot down well inside Syrian territory, even the Turks are admitting that. That's supposedly the official radar trace of the encounter. The site of the hit at least seems accurate, since the pilots were reported captured/ dead near Rabia which is around 8 km inside Syria and ~7.5km from the crash site. It seems deeply implausible overall though for the plane to crash a few hundred meters from the border yet have been- according to the trace- heading deeper into Syria in the exact opposite direction. Evasive might explain it, but there's zero evidence that the Su24 had any inkling they were targeted, rather the opposite since the plane is clearly still in cruise configuration with its wings forward. Almost certainly it was shot down without knowing it was targeted, pretty much the first thing to do if it was jumped is to change configuration to wing back which is far faster and supersonic capable.

Seems likely one pilot is dead, though it's not fully confirmed there certainly are pictures floating around showing a dead uniformed pilot. That will make things particularly unpleasant. Ironically Lavrov is meant to be visiting Ankara tomorrow, seems rather unlikely that that meeting will take place now. Or at least not in the manner originally intended. Some interesting timing going on, what with Hollande trying to drum up a solid coalition and Jabhat al Nusra and Ahrar ash Sham (Turkey's main proxy) attacking the Kurds and SDF (~FSA, though meant to be fighting ISIS specifically) in Afrin. The jet supposedly crashed here if Al Jazeera is to be believed. Doesn't really say much since either way it's very close (few hundred meters) to the Turkish border, but since both the pilots (especially, since they'd eject close to initial impact) and plane came down in Syria it seems likely they were in Syrian airspace at the time.

I certainly wish it were about Thanksgiving, given the potential for escalation. Couple of proper news articles coming in Al Jazeera (pro Turk) and RT (pro Russian).

Russian Su-24 shot down by F16s (per Turkey) or ground fire (per Russia). Apparent crash site is in Syria, one pilot claimed captured by Turkman (rebel) group in Syria, reports (unconfirmed) of fighting near Turkish border between Russian quick response force and well, hopefully rebels else it's Turkish ground forces. Turkish claims are that it violated their airspace, Russia denies it. Should be noted that Turkey has unilaterally extended its airspace 5 km into Syria, so both may be telling the truth there, facpov. If it was shot down in a self declared air space extension article 5 NATO protection will not apply.

I actually tend to agree, though I have no idea what to give as a shorthand label to the current situation. But, someone on the economic left is far more likely to label the current situation as being laissez faire much as someone on the economic right is likely to label it as socialism or similar. Both are wrong, but that would be their honestly held opinion.

Meh, SOHR yet again. Literally a dude in a Coventry basement with a grandiosely named organisation ejecting a stream of asterisky statistics like an infamous off colour internet meme. In this case I wouldn't actually be surprised if that figure is accurate, but it's still pretty misleading. Given that Russia has averaged about 100 strikes per day since October (fewer sorties, some sorties strike multiple targets) it's a rate of less than 1/10 of a civilian killed per strike. Hardly indiscriminate, certainly. There's always some grim hilarity to be found picking his stats apart. Those 22,370 'barrel bombs' which are a tool for targeting civilians result in 6900 civilian deaths, meaning less than 1/3 of a civilian is killed per strike. That's some spectacularly poor quality deliberate targeting of civilians, manufacture the bomb, fly it off in a helicopter in order to kill 1/3 of a civilian per strike. It's almost as if they aren't actually targeting civilians... The drone program has a far worse rate of civilian death despite its somewhat questionable methodology of counting every male semi adult or up as a terrorist by default. Seriously, SOHR is an utterly rubbish source, at least as bad in reverse as anything the syrian government puts out information wise. Most of the media love it though, as it actually does release stats and largely releases stats that they agree with.