Zoraptor

Most recent example of (politically effective) self immolation was the guy in Tunisia (Muhammed Bouazizi) who ended up bringing down Ben Ali and, uh, sparked the Arab Spring. Apart from that probably the most famous example was Duc (and other monks) in South Vietnam bringing down Diem just prior to the Vietnam War really kicking off. Also traditional practice in some places eg Sati in India, though you have to wonder how keen the women were as opposed to their relatives not wanting to have to look after them.

Not sure the exact method that Navalny died means that much; he wasn't sent to an arctic penal colony to take the air. Well, not in the classic sense. Only real significance is Budanov contradicting the leaders who insist Putin personally strangled Navalny while he was saving some cute kittens, collecting clothes for orphans and personally rewriting the Russian Constitution to make Pro NATO studies a compulsory school subject.

Last time it happened I suggested S-200 as the only plausible option if it was Ukraine. Still a lot of problems with that though- right on the edge of effective range and S-200 launchers are fixed, not mobile. At ~270km from the front line there's a very narrow range of places it could have been launched from, basically a semi circle around Vuhledar (Kurakhove <--> Veliyka Novosilka). While they might be able to jury rig a launcher it would not be trivial since the rocket is 7t and 10m long. Can't just bung it into a S-300 TEL or similar.

Maybe mythic F-22. The supposed S-400 launches were from Mariupol, the crash site is in Krasnodar oblast of Russia proper (Trudovaya Armenia). That's so far behind the lines it has to be yet another friendly fire incident. And I'm sure advocating for the invasion of their countries will get the Chinese, Koreans and Iranians to stop supplying Russia. Much like suggesting a joint attack on Warsaw with Russia will get the Polish farmers to reconsider their blockade.

"I've never seen [Jaws 4], but by all accounts it's terrible. However I have seen the house that it built, and it's terrific"

Yeah 3rd AB or 3rd separate; Azov, as was. There's a difference between sources as to whether they refused, or were never meant to go in in the first place- which seems to be broadly along lines of support for Zaluzhny and Sirsky respectively. The internal 3rd Brigade sources had them being ordered in for sure, but you can't preclude that being deliberate disinformation; indeed that would be distinctly plausible. It seems extremely likely they were meant to at least hold the Coke Plant though, since that was very strong defensively and outside the pocket, so not in any imminent threat of being surrounded. Even if they decided a different defensive line further back would be necessary in the longer term it was still an essential hold in the short term to cover an orderly retreat. Losing it too early suggests something went very wrong; either a refusal or a panic. Neither of which is good. Dunno about the lack of crowing, the Russians have been kind of weird about prisoners throughout the war. They could have easily disprove the Snake Island fight to the death story immediately but seemed to do so both accidentally and belatedly. The only time they seem to have done much crowing was about Azovstal where there were a lot of prisoners all in one go; and those prisoners were Azov. While I doubt the 110th were overly popular with the DPR troops the Russians proper don't seem to have borne them any particular ill will, and they seem to have been surrendering in dribs and drabs such that the Russians don't even know how many they were taking.

Neither side are at all accurate. And the OSINT guys are well into "here's how Bernie can still win!" territory*. More losses than the Ukrainian side for the Russian is pretty much a given given the situation, though the shambolic retreat would not have helped at all and likely brought the loss ratio down significantly. The main problem for Ukraine is that they're now lost nearly their entire urban defensive anchor system around Donetsk city (Avdiivka and Marinka) over a comparatively short period. It may (just) be less territory than Ukraine took in their 'counter'offensive, but it's of way more strategic value than Robotyne and Klishcheeva and is way more built up. The other issue is the supposed refusal of units to obey orders which has been reported on by western media. Some of that may be scenario fulfillment for those who preferred Zaluzhny to Sirsky but if it's even slightly true it's a major issue since it will infect every aspect ("sure, we'll hold, we'll attack when ordered to... but what if the guys next to us run? Got to be prepared"). While I don't think anyone could blame the 110th for cracking as they'd held Avdiivka since the outset the main culprit was not conscripts nor a weak new brigade, it was 3rd separate/Azov. Supposedly volunteer, an over strength rather than under strength brigade and highly motivated. *we had one of the Oryx guys trying to pass off a Leo2 and Bradley as Russian losses two days ago. That at least was so obvious it got corrected (but also so obvious it should never have happened in the first place), but you can imagine the number of times things weren't quite as obvious, and didn't.

There was some talk a few weeks back of PoE2 having a very long tail sales wise, and PoE 3 being a possibility again because of it- and because of BG3's success. (PoE2 was far superior to 1 in every respect, imo)

Sarex bro, why respond to people whose opinions are worthless. I mean jesus christ, citing HoonDing as starting the discussion? Has he said anything seriously in his entire posting career- even going back through virumor/ Drudanae- in Off Topic? Maybe 1 in a 100, and that post very very obviously wasn't that 1. Doesn't really matter if Obama has a different geopolitical view from GWB though, if they end up doing the same things and the only difference is Obama looking mildly concerned. The difference between Torquemada setting someone on fire and me doing it is that Torquemada thinks God tells him to while I want to... make some smores, maybe? Torquemada's reason may sound better than general psychopathy, but God (morality) can tell him to do literally anything and he'll do so while thinking he's in the right and doing it for other people. For the poor bloke getting toasty the difference is zero and the actual justification is political, old Torquie's just convinced himself that it's moral. Now, some might think comparing Torquemada to Obama is unfair, and I'd agree to an extent; but when it comes right down to it it doesn't matter if Obama had moral qualms about droning people half a world away on dodgy intelligence while Bush didn't because Bush Believed in the Inherent Goodness of the American Cause. Obama still did it anyway and even stepped up the program. Indeed, in some ways that would make Obama worse, not better, since he 'knows' what he's doing is wrong. You'll get people saying that the neoliberal worldview is completely different and so much superior to the neoconservative one because it's all about helping the oppressed while neoconservative is all about changing the world to favour [the US, not even sure other countries have neocons] instead. The practicalities are that both worldviews are exactly the same in everything except the rhetorical aspects; ie it's only the justification that's different. If Torquemada sets someone on fire to save their soul that sounds better than me doing so so I can steal their gold but again, ain't no difference for the victim.

Russia had a decent chance of being a 'liberal democracy' in 1992 and maybe even making it to one without the air quotes. Instead they got economic shock therapy that lead to two bankruptcies, and the incomparable incompetent sot Boris Yeltsin. Who may have been feted among western politicians but left office on the basis that the population would not be permitted to lynch him- and that's pretty much literally the one thing he asked- and whose democratic credentials internally were utterly ruined by the 1996 election. At that point what do you do, vote for ongoing disaster? Not likely. It's a real shame, if there had been even a moderate Marshall Plan type system in place for Russia the world would likely be a massively different- and better- place. There's a very significant point of view difference at play here between those who live in the US- where no doubt there were major differences between Presidents- and those outside where apart from Trump there's been a pretty consistent neocon/ neolib interventionist foreign policy and economic mindset at play since... Reagan, maybe? Certainly since Clinton. So something like Obamacare would have been a major point of difference for an American, but it meant little to nothing to anyone outside the US. They saw Obama having more or less the same external economic policy as Bush and- despite the rhetoric- an almost identical foreign policy too. Bombing Libya, arming the moderate beheaders in Syria, stepping up drone attacks everywhere, while not shutting down Guantanamo. Guy sure talked a good talk though compared to Bush. ('eats their own' is an overstatement. It's not like you got most of the conservative media going into a feeding frenzy against GWB; and similarly you might have the conservative media foaming about Obama, but not the liberal. Trump is the obvious outlier, but on some things they'd even unite on in praising him- eg bombing Syria. Better than Russian media, sure, but that's not exactly a high bar to pass now is it)

Sokolov watch: now sacked as commander of the Black Sea Fleet as of a couple of days ago. Given its performance, not before time, but it seems close to incontrovertible that he's been alive the whole time. I thought to check because one of the other senior commanders Ukraine had claimed to have killed (Andrei Mordvichev) in a separate incident was a senior commander in Avdiivka.

Yeah, I'd never advocate for skimping on the PSU, indeed I'd consider it the one component where you should never skimp on reliability at least, I do wish I'd paid the few dollars extra for 750W over 550W though as the added flexibility would have been good. I knew perfectly well that that Macron PSU was garbage* and never taxed it even slightly (probably max of 1/3 of the on the box load). *apparently, having looked it up, I was... completely wrong. While it's an old and inefficient design it's actually very reliable. Looks like I owe Macron an apology.

One of the issues with Avdiivka does seem to have been a lack of proper fortifications behind the initial line. Will be interesting to see how far they do withdraw, I though they might well try to hold the Coke Plant at least but it seems not.

I would have to say that the one no name ('Macron', I think) PSU I've personally used actually did ok. It died in a puff of blue smoke eventually, but in circumstances where you might expect even a reputable brand to do similar (incorrect voltage supplied from the plug) and without taking any other component with it.

That isn't quite the problem, since opposition is allowed to exist, it's not North Korea. The opposition is a lot more restricted than in most liberal democracies though, certainly. That problem is more, at least from the western perspective, that there's very little pro western sentiment at any level and the practical Putin alternatives are: Medvedev or similar from United Russia, Zyuganov's ossified non corpse from the commies, Mironov who's basically a CCP style State Capitalist, or Zhiro's ossified actual corpse from the Liberals. The only one of those who isn't stridently revanchist is Mironov, who is a bit more moderately revanchist. The liberal, pro west party that Gorth mentioned (Yabloko) cannot even pass the 5% threshold- less than 2% vote in 2021- and doesn't on western polling data either. While the commies and LDPR are seen as controlled opposition they supported the 2012 protests extensively, hence all the soviet and Russian Imperial flags being waved at them. Navalny wasn't tolerated since he was seen as a western stooge. Certainly his coverage in the west was disproportionate to his highest poll rating from western agencies of around 5% which might, barely have scraped his party into the duma. Both the commies and LDPR regularly get 3-4x that vote each, but are stridently anti west so don't count as opposition. Ultimately, the problem for any western liberal politician in Russia is not Putin, but Yeltsin and, well, the west in general. You're not going to get a nice liberal pro free market pro europe pro west non revanchist out of the margin of error while peddling racial stereotypes, talking about breaking up their country and actively supplying arms and intelligence to kill their countrymen. Obviously I'd agree with that, personally. The disclaimer was more to avoid the- inevitable, as it turned out, ho hum- accusations of them being irrelevant since they aren't politicians while Navalny (/Trump/ Kennedy) are/ were.

meh, shouldn't break my own rule of never replying to people whose opinions are worthless.

Vote Radagast.

Would think Assange or Snowden are better examples, albeit non political.

I'd be interested in Navalny's reasons for returning to Russia. It always seemed like a dumb decision similar to Iraqi generals Hussein and Kamal al Majid who defected from and then returned to Iraq under Saddam- and they at least got a promise of immunity (not kept, of course). He surely can't have thought there'd be a popular uprising to install him as President or something and he was nowhere near important enough to earn protected status.

To be honest, DeepState and the like are better than ISW. They're as accurate- more so, really- and they don't try and hide their bias behind a veneer of pseudo academic language. Guess if they didn't hide it they'd not be used by the Beeb, AlJ etc though and miss out on funding. (You're probably not really meant to remember it but if you do ISW's coverage of the 'counter'offensive and Robotyne in particular makes for an interesting contrast to their coverage of Ukrainian losses. Robotyne, 2021 (belated edit; lol) estimated population of 74* was a crucial gain and "tactically significant" (direct quote). A city in the 10s of thousands that had been touted as a fortress prepared for a decade: not operationally significant) *2001 census had a few hundred population, for military purposes that may be a more fair estimate since, militarily, it doesn't matter if a house is derelict and no one lived there. Either way though, not large.

Flatout on giveaway for a couple more days.

In this case it's also the NZ accent's vowel drift results in pronouncing eminently and imminently exactly the same ('uminuntlee'). Forum writing is a lot closer to speaking than formal writing is so you tend to 'hear*' the right word even if you've written the wrong one. *pronounced 'hee-uh' since we love a good diphthong and bad ones even more. Also pronounced identically: hare, hair, here and even heir.

Ha yes. From some of the reactions you'd think it was imminently plausible though.

EMP seems imminently plausible. Not that they'd need Starfish for inspiration, the soviets had (an) equivalent test(s) themselves at a similar time.

Hmm. The ABC report says it's nuclear, though as with Reuters from old friend 'anonymous sources'. (Good thing it's not the British MoD saying anything or I'd suspect it's Shovel Deterrence Initiative/ Putin having launched a mysterious yellow object into the sky early August 2023 that creates tactical undergrowth to selectively hinder Ukrainian counteroffensives)