Zoraptor

Looks like a (temporary) ceasefire with (partial) hostage release is incoming after the Israeli cabinet approved it.

Meh, that's not a peace plan. That's the geopolitical equivalent of Neil from the Young Ones or 'Give Quiche a Chance' Rimmer from Red Dwarf ie literally nothing apart from a set of principles with no ideas about how to implement them. The principles are all well and good, but the question has always been how, and the devil always in the details*. On the positive side it's pretty even handed comparing Hamas and Netanyahu, though the canker there is a lot larger and more long running than just Bibi. Every Likud PM has viewed Hamas as an 'ally' right back to Shamir helping to establish them in the first place as a radical (religious) counter to the PLO. *eg Palestine apparently has to be demilitarised, Israel, doesn't... so one is an actual country, the other isn't. Who gets the water? What happens to the Palestinian refugees? Golan Heights? Jerusalem? Settlements? What's the enforcement mechanism(s)? How do you stop another Baruch Goldstein/ Yigal Amir (or Ariel Sharon) from derailing everything? etc etc.

I'd have no problem with Putin being charged by the ICC if they were charging him with the correct crimes, eg waging aggressive war and pillage. The reason they aren't is of course that then they'd have to charge people like Tony Blair and Donald Trump as well and We Can't Have That. Nothing inconsistent with being inconsistent about the worth of the ICC. They could prove themselves to be even handed and worthwhile by bringing charges against members of The Rules Based Order and other protected persons, in the future. 95% of the criticism of it would go away tomorrow if they applied the rules even handedly and did not give carte blanche to favoured nations with 'reliable' judiciaries to investigate themselves and inevitably find themselves not guilty (or simply not bothered, that's still enough for a country with a 'reliable' judiciary*). It's kind of naive to expect that at this point, clearly the ANC are full of positivity and hope though which is nice. Still you never know, might see Bush, Blair and Bibi in the dock sometime. Not going to be holding my breath though. *Case in point, the guy who leaked the Aus SAS atrocities is currently on trial (actually changed his plea to guilty yesterday, it seems) in Australia for those leaks. Don't think a single SAS member has been charged for kicking Afghans off cliffs, shooting them because they wouldn't fit on a copter etc yet though. Makes you wonder which one Australia's reliable judicial system sees as the worse crime, eh.

Yep those deportations were planned rather than real, but the 'fair' (per Bruce) Peel Commission plan did call for that 180x greater deportation (or ~60x, if you take relative population into account). The comparison was to show it was hardly 'fair', in any objective sense, but actually strongly favoured the Jewish side. Otherwise, you don't have to be rounded up at gunpoint and stuck in a cattle car for it to be forced expulsion, you just have to be coerced and threat of death/ murder is 100% coercion. Israel regards threats of violence against Jews causing them to leave countries as being forced expulsions, for example, they just don't reciprocate the definition when it comes to Palestinians. On different matters, Newsweek did a fact check on claims that Israel built the bunker/ bsaement under al Shifa and it can back as unequivocally true. Give him a rifle and he'd just shoot up a mosque like his idol Baruch Goldstein. Or not, Ben-Gvir has the most massive chickenhawk energy and won't want what Baruch got immediately after. (Real talk for anyone not aware, Ben-Gvir is infamous for not being allowed into the IDF due to his radicalism. And yeah, he quite literally had a Baruch Goldstein portrait in pride of place in his house...)

The MiG 31 isn't very expensive, at least comparatively, the last one was made nearly 30 years ago now and they aren't particularly advanced or anything. The main point of using a MiG 31 for psychological stuff is that it has a big payload and can carry things like Kinzhal's, so them launching --> imminent air raid (or not, as case may be). And they are cheaper than the Tupolev's to run.

I'd put money on the Global Rights Compliance being a TLA front. Either that or they're idiots. There's zero chance of anything happening at the ICC over this, it's 100% propaganda. And not very good propaganda either. Let's run through previous headlines, shall we. Ukraine is essential to feeding the 1 billion starving people of Africa- and let's not forget, depriving them of food is a War Crime per the Rules Based Order (not so much Palestinians though, eh?). Ukraine is also flooding Europe with cheap grain. Ukraine is still exporting despite drone attacks etc. Even western Ukraine is self sufficient agriculturally, indeed the main reason why Ukraine will never ever get into the EU is not corruption, territorial disputes or similar, it's that their agricultural sector would bankrupt the CAP. Ukraine produces roughly 2 tonnes of grain, per person. That's ~4x the amount the EU does for all cereals, per person, and the EU feeds an astounding amount of that to livestock rather than eats it directly. Even western Ukraine is self sufficient. There's probably a case for Pillage due to Russia's annexations not being internationally accepted, but as always you run into the problem of western countries doing exactly the same thing. See Trump outright saying they were stealing Syria's oil- about as clear an example of Pillage as you can get, and from the US Commander in Chief too so not from some nebulous documents and recruiting patterns. So the ICC issue arrest warrants after finding someone guilty, do they? Guess Putin has already been found guilty of those previous charges then? No? Ho hum. Nerp. 6th, 2021 figures, and with less than a quarter the production of... China. It wasn't the biggest wheat exporter either though at least it was closer there. And a stunningly small amount on the 'new Holodomor'. Are the farmers in Kherson etc starving? Is the general population? No? Well then. Crap article.

So owned by jews that they'd have had to deport quarter of a million arabs from it at a ratio of 180:1 and representing ~1/3 of the population of arabs in Palestine. Jews didn't even have a majority population in that 20%. One of the big issues was that the Ottomans sold land fraudulently to absentee 'landowners' to raise money- sometimes they even did it multiple times as well. The people living there tended to be a bit surprised when jewish landlords turned up to turf them out. Your figures are for Haifa city, not Haifa district- even today Haifa district's population is ~5x that of the city itself and the rural areas proportion of arabs considerably higher. Though I definitely should have said Arab rather than Muslim, always tend to forget there were a lot of Christians around who got expelled alongside the muslims.

Yep, playing the demo highly advised. It's considerably different to AoD's system and I'd say far more polished*. There's a lot of metagaming possible as you gain skills by using skills, so it's beneficial to do skill checks/ conversations in a specific(ish) order but it's nowhere near AoD's level- and it's not, generally speaking essential to do it that way, just beneficial. OTOH, it has that annoying feeling where you're in a high(ish) tech setting with firearms and laser guns but all the encounters occur at such short distances that you might as well not have them since everyone will be in melee range usually in a round... *Note: only played the InDev version and that not with the final update but it was already far more polished than AoD was.

It isn't the same; hence it is analogy. If it was the same it'd be, well, homology. Point being of course that it's very easy to accept being given 20%- the most fertile 20%, including places like Haifa which had 90%+ muslim population- if you had zero percent before. It's a lot harder when you had 100% and someone is taking that 20% off of you while leaving you such veritable gardens of eden as the Negev Desert. To put it in perspective it would have been a population exchange of 225,000 Arabs and 1250 (!) Jews- 180x as many Arabs as Jews. Baffling how the arabs rejected such a fair offer, eh? Kind of irrelevant anyway since the Jewish Agency Council actually voted to reject the Peal [sic; actually Peel] Commission recommendations, not accept them as you claimed. Largely because its leadership thought they could drive out even more muslims and get more land. Which proved to be accurate, since they ended up expelling 720k arabs during Nakba. Which is of course why all those loony tunes right wing national religious nutbars talking about second Nakbas and 'voluntary' expulsions have to be taken very, very seriously.

Think so, they had very detailed looking 'plans' for it at least. They do seem to be claiming to have found something now (beyond ten AKs and a grenade), though the only 'proof' offered is a crater with a hole at its bottom. Strange that, since Israel insisted it hadn't attacked the hospital. Then again, we don't have a tape measure to see if the crater is 5-7m wide either, if it isn't it can't have been from Israel and must have come from Hamas' air force trying to make Israel look bad. Should be noted since it's likely to become an issue that literally no one disputes that Al Shifa has a basement since it's on the official plans for the compound, the dispute is on its use. I rather suspect we're going to get a lot of people insisting it was built by Hamas- cunningly using the Jewish pseudonyms Gershon Tzapor and Benjamin Edelson- over the next few days.

IDF says it may take 'weeks' to fully search Al-Shifa Hospital. Remember a few days ago about how they knew exactly where the command bunker was, and it was the 'beating heart' of Hamas? Guess they're hoping everyone will have forgotten that in a few weeks, after they start in on the hospitals in southern Gaza...

Yep. You hear a lot about the Balfour Declaration, you don't hear much about the multiple agreements that had promised the same land to the Arabs years earlier. Brits got what they deserved there, unfortunately just their soldiers mostly not the duplicitous politicians who made the actual decisions. Reminder: Winston S Churchill was 100% fine with gassing arabs who didn't agree with the British Empire reneging on their deal. Strange that Bruce doesn't mention the Jewish rebellion of Irgun and especially Lehi/ Stern Gang though. Especially since Likud was basically the Lehi political party. Very peculiar. Anyway, I'm going to offer 20% of Bruce's house to a Zimbabwean refugee. Bruce gets 80% so it's heavily in his favour, and the Zimbabwean refugee has already accepted...

Yellowjackets S2: Could have been Gaslighting, the series, for its effects. Constantly asking myself 'is it just me, or does this make literally no sense?'. After the final episode 100% confident it isn't just me and the 2nd season was just an extreme mess replete with contrivance. It's still pretty entertaining in isolation and far from terrible but the plot (mostly the currentyear one) is... not coherent at all. The Boys Generation V Liked it, at least up until the last few minutes. Much like its parent series it's over the top silliness most of the time laced with just enough deadly serious to stop you laughing at it. The overall effect is very early Peter Jackson (Bad Taste, Braindead/ Deadalive) and I love those. Everyone looks like they're having a great time massively over/ underacting, especially Jensen Ackles in his cameo. The ending though is NWN2OC

The Alpine Fault has a 75% chance of rupturing in the next 50 years with a magnitude of 8+. The last Big One was ~1720, and the longest projected interval between them is 350 years. The longer it goes the bigger it's likely to be as well. IIRC Peter Thiel's bunker is near Queenstown, so it'd be the Alpine Fault that would effect it.

Good news: the entirety of New Zealand is fault lines, and we're due for a Big One. Now we just need a global calamity that would get Pete into his hideaway so Mt Earnslaw can fall on his head.

They didn't actually expect to find much given the number of troops they sent in. Certainly no 'beating heart'. Never know though, maybe Good Guy Israel siphoned that 300L of fuel they offered out of one of the Merkava tanks. It'd be about 3% of the fuel they drove in, in their tanks alone.

Palantir, not Plantir. Named, of course, after the dangerous and foolish to use seeing stones of JRR Tolkien's Lord of the Rings that drove John Noble to eat some chicken very messily and made Christopher Lee fail his greenhouse gas emission targets spectacularly. It's one of those names where you wonder if Mr Thiel knew about the connotations beforehand or just googled for stuff that would let you see into the future. Fun fact: Mr Thiel bought New Zealand citizenship and is one of the guys who has built a doomsday bunker here.

We've got RealMe, which is basically an excuse for the government to skimp on actual people answering phones or reading hard copy to provide services more than a clandestine scheme to monitor people online. For that they already have google, aws, fb, PSP/ IME/ Pluton, 5eyes partners/ GCSB etc.

Hagari supposedly runs a lot of social media manipulation type stuff as his normal day job which would make him essentially both a press officer and rear echelon guy. He's definitely an odd choice to front the camera and some of his (if they are his and not from higher up; he's pretty senior though) decisions have been decidedly sloppy.

I was amazed by how staged the whole thing appeared. OK, so it's obviously going to be staged in some respects, but the idea is not to make everything look staged since that is counter productive and ends up making it look fake. (Daniel Hagari is a rear admiral so a senior sailor, not a soldier. Very likely hasn't seen an actual boat either in a while either, any way a certain amount of discomfort is to be expected. But even in the more controlled briefing setting he's got more than a little bit of Bethesda NPC / the AI newsreader from the new Deus Exs about him and I always semi expect him to start talking about how Rucker Hamas has weaponised mudcrabs)

The 'funnier' one is their offer of fuel to Al Shifa. So obviously done solely so they could say they'd offered and been refused, and have it reported they had. 300L, enough to run a generator for half an hour and pick up only. To put it in perspective, the fuel capacity of a single Merkava tank is... 1400L. So they offered enough fuel to maybe turn off the low fuel light on a tank for a hospital with 700 beds and maybe twenty time the number of people there. Also the calendar/ planning document found under Al Rantisi (strangely enough, unverifiable, since Israel managed to cut off every geolocatable feature in their proof video) which consists of... dates, with the day of the week. It's like they think no one can read arabic or know what 'Monday' looks like in arabic script. One in the eye for the people who thought the laughable 'Hamas' intercept from the hit on Ah Ahli couldn't be fake because Israel wouldn't be that incompetent. They definitely would, because a lot of people will simply accept horse manure as caviar if Regev or Hagari tells them so.

The main issue with anonymous sources is that they can tell you what they want you to hear whether it's true or not- with zero repercussions for being wrong or outright lying. If they're telling you something that runs counter to their interests it's a lot more difficult to come up with a scenario where they're deliberately lying or over exaggerating. A 6' guy on Tinder ain't going to list himself as 5'8, the reverse, not so much. The secondary issue is knowing whether the source has been vetted properly, or even exists. So 'Russia is running out of missiles' says anonymous source in April, May, June, July, August.. of 22 is not exactly credible. It's saying what someone wants to be true, it's been said and been wrong multiple times before and the person(s) saying it haven't even had the consequence of being ignored since it kept on getting repeated. You have a bunch of things different in the Time article. No one disputes that Time was there and talked to people. So we know they had sources. They don't have a reason to make things up, they don't have a reason to make things look bad for Zelensky, it isn't what they 'want' to be true. It's written by Time of NYC, not Vremya of Moskva. It also fits a bunch of ancillary evidence- there were plenty of rumours at the time of things like refusals to launch frontal assaults from frontline commanders, it failed expectations etc. Similarly, neither WP nor Der Spiegel have any intrinsic reason to blame Ukraine for Nordstream and would obviously 'prefer' it to have been Russia. Personally, I am extremely skeptical about aspects of their story- mostly there being zero external help- precisely because it's anonymously sourced and if there was external help it'd be even more politically embarrassing than Ukraine doing it. There's also a bunch of ancillary evidence there too such as not allowing an independent investigation, its generally stalled nature and that if they had evidence it was Russia they'd have leaked like an overpressure $2 hose.

Got to give Biden credit, his diplomacy has managed to unite the arab and muslim world and get Bashar al Assad, Erdogan, MbS and Raisi into the same photo, in Riyadh, something his predecessors singularly failed at. OK, so he's got them talking about how bad his foreign policy is, but still, he's got them talking and that's a start! MbS and Raisi are practically standing next to each other too.

Ukraine better watch out, Article 5 invocation incoming: "Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said on Wednesday that if the damage to the pipeline was “proven to be an attack on Nato critical infrastructure … it will be met by a united and determined response from Nato”." Oh wait, that was about that Finnish pipeline that got hit by an anchor last month. For NordStream... it's crickets.

Hasbara gonna hasbara. Favourite bit of media manipulation: "from the river to the sea.." is antisemitic because it implies a Palestinian ethnostate and forced deportation of the Jewish population, which is bad. Also, it's used by Hamas who are terrorists, so anyone who uses it is a terrorist! Except, presumably Likud and the whacky Eretz Israel types who use the phrase all the time- due to its biblical origin in Deuteronomy. Indeed, it's literally in Likud's founding charter from 14 years before Hamas was even founded ("from the river to the sea there will be only Israeli sovereignty"). I'm sure that is Different though, for Reasons.