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Mamoulian War

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Everything posted by Mamoulian War

  1. IIRC Land Lease will effectively start only around September/October. An analysis on their mobilisation along the lines of the interview was published few days ago. In other news, the strike against Wagner Group in Popasna might not have taken out Prigozhin, but it looks like, it took out their main propagandists. The propaganda Telegram Channel of Wagner Group, The Grey Zone with more than 250k followers is “silent” since August 13 - the day of the explosion. Edit: and the second big explosion, I’ve mentioned, in Lysychansk, which allegedly took out more than 100 Russian officers, was executed based on the photo, which they released for propaganda purposes, but they did not turned off geolocation, so it contained the exact GPS coordinates of their HQ
  2. The second tweet tries to show the similarities in the videos to some picture taken long time ago. And to me, the evidence looks plausible. anyway, it looks like that tonight is pretty hot in a lot of places in Crimea and Belgorod. There is also a video of air defence shooting near Kerch Bridge.
  3. Hmm interesting. IMHO before getting to the final conclusion, we need to take into consideration few things. Prigozhin, was definitely in Popasna at least three days before the impact, as reported by Wagner propaganda Telegram channel Grey Zone. Popasna has been almost whole leveled to the ground in April/May, so a picture of him on any rubble in Popasna would be easy to make before the impact as well. I do not know how the reporting of this event went in another countries, but all the disinformation websites in Slovakia have rushed to release the statement, that Prigozhin is definitely not among the casualties. They did not even bother to edit the text. All of the sites which I checked this morning had completely same copy/paste article about the incident. This means, that the info was definitely distributed by Russian Embassy . And the last but not least thing, Russia would definitely never willingly admit such a high profile casualty, therefore unless we see Prigozhin alive and well on some pictures/footage in the near future, there will be a shadow of doubt about this event. My personal opinion is, that he was probably already away, when the incident happened, nevertheless, I want to see his newer footage as well
  4. Nope, it was day or two ago in occupied Popasna, where Wagner Group had HQs. There are also rumours about that hit, that Prygozin, the owner of Wagner could have been on site, during the explosion… He did not appeared in any Russian media since that explosion, but if this rumour is false, we will see him very soon alive and well, as he is a very prominent figure. Edit: also there are reports, that almost no action is happening at Bakhmut after that hit. And as the siege of this city was directly under the Wagner Group command, this could mean, that the results of that doxxing might be significant. in the next few days, we’ll definitely know, if the number of casualties in these two places among the officers were as high as “advertised”, based on the reports how the attacks on Bakhmut and Soledar will move forward…
  5. Oof… This might be the biggest blow to occupation forces yet… We’ll see how accurate these numbers are soon..
  6. Hmm, notice this only now, but it immediately made me excited
  7. I just went into the third year in the third installment of Atelier Arland trilogy (NG+ of Atelier Meruru). Compared to the previous two games, you spend more time doing synthesis and less time adventuring, but only if you want to go for all trophies. When I’ve played it for the first time in 2013/14, it was the simplest game from the trilogy, to play without walkthrough. The most difficult was Atelier Totori. Now with the walkthrough, it looks like you have to spent much more time to get the right synthesis to progress further into the game.
  8. Looks like UA SOF were able to deliver another pack of cigarettes to Crimea 200kms behind enemy lines, and some Russian soldier found them.
  9. As promised before, Kazakhstan’s oil to EU will start to bypass Russia, starting in september. https://www.euractiv.com/section/central-asia/news/kazakhstan-to-start-oil-sales-via-azeri-pipeline-to-bypass-russia/
  10. I have found the source of the rumours. Mayor of Mykolaiv stated yesterday night, that russian command have moved thier posts away from west bank. So in a way it can be seen as an official statement. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/13/7363155/
  11. There are starting to emerge rumours, that higher rank russian officers are starting to flee from the west bank of Dnieper in Kherson Oblast. No official statements on this yet, but interesting news nevertheless.
  12. Also, today emerged rumours, that one of the most prominent collaborators in South Ukraine, Oleh Shostakh, had a very explosive day today in Melitolpol. The guy is one of the main organizers of sham referenda in the South. Let’s eagerly await now for some indeoendent sources to confirm or deny the claim. https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-08-12-22/h_570cc7f061c21c3e18909c1487b204e7
  13. And another example how Russia adhere to international laws, for which was Ukraine so much critisized
  14. More aftermath following the AI report. Co-founder of Swedish AI branch has resigned. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/10/7362634/
  15. Belarusian MoD confirmed explosions on the airfield in a pretty vague wording. Equipment caught fire therefore it went kaboom. full statement (feel free to run it through google translate, unable to do it on my tablet now) https://t.me/modmilby/16963
  16. I know, therefore I have put the Telegram source as well. It is telegram channel of one of the ”newspaper” in Ukraine. Feel free to put it through google translate, and of course take it with adequate grain of salt, but as I said, it is more plausible then the Arestovych numbers, as some of the OSINT guys have counted 16-17 completely destroyed aircrafts from the satellite pictures @xzar_monty High contrast satellite image, where it is possible to discern more than 7 hits.
  17. But he might still be pretty close to reality Edit: Also, some reports say, that approx. 60 military personel, including pilots died during the blast, with another 100 being injured. edit 2: and another report on what was destroyed. This seems to me littlw bit more plausible as the IL-76 in Arestovych report, was the only IL-76 4 hours before the hit on the airfield, and there are videos of that aircraft flying away with haste very soon after the explosions. Source from telegram: https://t.me/UAonlii/34939
  18. That’s 22 more than reported in the morning news here.
  19. From local radio news: According to Ukrainian military sources, 10 aircrafts have been destroyed at Crimea. The damage might be even bigger as it is impossible to assess from the satellite images, how many of the aircraft were made inoperable by smaller shrapnel damage from explosion. As the geolocated pictures shows destroyed cars 600meters away from the closest ammunition warehouse, which was destroyed, the number of such damaged aircrafts is probably in higher than lower numbers.
  20. It might have been psyops, to get as much of Russians into a place, where Ukraine can completely control the logistics of the enemy, which is pretty much what really happened. There are 25000 Russian soldiers in Kherson, being supplied by two improvisional ferries and a single damaged bridge near Nova Kakhovka dam. Every other way into the region was destroyed by UA army. I might be mistaken, but I cannot see a single possitive outcome for Russian soldiers out of this situation in the long term. The situation will be a stalemate for a long time, but in last two weeks, Ukraine have liberated more land, than they have lost, especially around Izyum, and in Kherson, despite all Russians running there. Also, there are slowly emerging reports, that because of Russians employing new soldiers with very low training, and Wagner are recruiting criminals, that the resistance in occupied Ukraine is raising even among the Ukrainians, which were more favourable towards Russia. All of that is happening, because these new “recruits” are acting pretty much as complete utter garbage and ****… but yes, conflict will be long, with Ukraine hitting away all of the Russian military infrastruction, even in the territories, which Russia will referendum away, like what happened now in Crimea. 40 SU-25 is probably year and half of presanction Russian production in aviation industry, lost overnight. With sanctions in place, it will take Russia in some sectors twice or thrice as long to replace lost equipment than before the war. The only thing which is immune to sanctions is pretty much artillery, and as everyone can see, after the HIMARS spree, the artillery strikes dropped tenfold compared to the times around Sieverodonetsk/Lysychansk siege. Will the Ukraine win this war? I do not know, but if the West stays behind them and will supply them through the winter, they will have a slight advantage in the war of attrition against Russia, due tomthe fact, that Russia does not have industry fit enough to sustain all the damage at the pace the Ukraine is destroying their army. It is clear that the current strategy is, that Russia wants to take as much of land as possible by sham referendums, and blackmail the west to peace out. That’s why they turned off the oil flowing to their only ally in EU yesterday, as they hope Orban will break first and starts to sabotage the EU working together.
  21. The thing is, which you also need to take into account is, that most of the war in Soviet Union has happened in Ukraine, and nowadays, most of the fighting on the side of Russia are done by ethnic non-russians, which was not the case during WWII. So if we look back at WWII lessons, that Ukraine has an advantage in this regard as well.
  22. Last post for tonight, but I have found one tweet very deep in the rumour department, but what the heck Even the Neptune missiles were considered rumours before Moskva was reassigned to submarine division.
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