Politics Thread: Edge of Seventeen

[Bartimaeus]

Someone mentioned Occam's Razor earlier - the explanation that requires the least amount of assumptions is probably that they simply got lucky.

[Raithe]

[Drowsy Emperor]

Or they hired a really crappy assassin.

 

Or there was no nerve gas to begin with? It's about as easy for the UK's security services to blow the story out of proportion and subsequently plant whatever they need to justify it - as it is for the Russian ones, particularly in this political climate. 

 

Not to mention the string of assumptions that follows even if there was:

 

1. That it was the russians (the kind of life Skripal led makes enemies left and right)

2. That even if it was russians, it had to be the Kremlin (Putin is not the only game in town in Russia, even if he is the biggest one)

 

 

The alternative is that the NHS successfully treated the poisoning by one of the most potent weapons in the world, 5-8 times stronger than VX, which they're barely acquainted with (he should have died before they figured out what it was), have no ready made antidote for, and well beyond the onset of the poison (30s - 2minutes). 

Edited April 12, 2018 by Drowsy Emperor

[Bartimaeus]

Yes, that does seem like the most likely possibility.

[Malcador]

 

Or they hired a really crappy assassin.

Or there was no nerve gas to begin with? It's about as easy for the UK's security services to blow the story out of proportion and subsequently plant whatever they need to justify it - as it is for the Russian ones, particularly in this political climate.

 

Not to mention the string of assumptions that follows even if there was:

 

1. That it was the russians (the kind of life Skripal led makes enemies left and right)

2. That even if it was russians, it had to be the Kremlin (Putin is not the only game in town in Russia, even if he is the biggest one)

 

 

The alternative is that the NHS successfully treated the poisoning by one of the most potent weapons in the world, 5-8 times stronger than VX, which they're barely acquainted with (he should have died before they figured out what it was), have no ready made antidote for, and well beyond the onset of the poison (30s - 2minutes).

Never doubt the incompetence of implementation people.

 

But wonder if we'll ever find out the truth

Edited April 12, 2018 by Malcador

[Gfted1]

Wait; so the UK poisoned their own double agent, 14 years after his last activities, while trying to pin it on Russia, but are totally inept, or have completely fabricated the story. Sounds legit.

[Drowsy Emperor]

Wait; so the UK poisoned their own double agent, 14 years after his last activities, while trying to pin it on Russia, but are totally inept, or have completely fabricated the story. Sounds legit.

 

Russians poison a traitor 14 years after his last activities, in an atmosphere of high tension with the West, with their supremely deadly military grade, traceable, nerve agent, and he and his daughter roll a natural 20 and shrug it off.

 

In essence, the Russians engineer the expulsion of their informant network from the UK and other countries for a man so relevant they didn't bother to kill him in 14 years.

 

Legit?  

Edited April 12, 2018 by Drowsy Emperor

[Gfted1]

Probably falls somewhere in the middle.

[Amentep]

I so want to make a House MD joke, but this being the political thread no doubt people would take it seriously.

[Guard Dog]

He's right. What he missed was WHY that is. It was mainly due to the arrogance and condescension of the "intellectual class" so to speak that all the stupid rubes should just shut up and be grateful to do as they're told by their "betters". There is nothing virtuous in believing you are smarter than everyone else. Even if it's true.

[Malcador]

I so want to make a House MD joke, but this being the political thread no doubt people would take it seriously.

 

It was lupus after all!

[HoonDing]

what happened to the sexy female Russian assassins that crushed you between their thighs

[Katphood]

Trump chooses impulse over strategy as crises mount The Washington Post

 

 

 

 

Trump initially told aides that he wanted U.S. soldiers and Marines to leave in 48 hours — an impossible timeline that alarmed the Pentagon and sent officials racing to dissuade him, two U.S. officials said.

 

Eventually, Mattis and others persuaded Trump to give the military another six months to wipe out the remnants of the Islamic State. The timeline was far from ideal but was viewed as a major victory compared with Trump’s original timeline, officials said

Edited April 12, 2018 by Katphood

[Bartimaeus]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-trolls-denied-syrian-gas-attackbefore-it-happened?ref=home

​

​Russian troll accounts accuse Syrian rebels of the chemical attack being a false flag operation...weeks before it even happened?

[Gfted1]

Eh, it was probably the Syrian civilians gassing themselves to make Russia look bad.

[Katphood]

U.S officials now pretty much sure it was the Syrian government: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/mideast/u-s-has-blood-samples-show-nerve-agent-syria-gas-n865431

[HoonDing]

hopefully PUtin will tweet which Syrian targets are allowed to be targeted

[Terminator]

Well I know that many Russian military ships has left Syria for "military exercise" in open waters... in fact almost all of them except perhaps a submarine. I do think that neither Russia and USA want open war between them.

[ShadySands]

Trump weighs rejoining Trans-Pacific Partnership amid trade dispute with China

 

President Trump ordered top administration officials Thursday to look at rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a major shift on the sprawling multination trade pact he rejected just days after taking office.

 

Rejoining the pact would come as Trump escalates a trade conflict with China. The Pacific Rim trade deal was intended to counter China’s influence, but Trump criticized the pact as a candidate and pulled the United States out of it in one of his earliest moves as president.

 

Trump gave the new orders to U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer and National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow during a White House meeting with lawmakers and governors, according to several GOP senators in attendance.

You down with TPP?

[Terminator]

Russian Warships Depart Tartus Ahead of Strikes on Syria

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/russian-american-warships-put-to-sea-ahead-of-strikes-on-syria#gs.APMHUKE

Click the above link to go to news source.

Edited April 12, 2018 by Terminator

[Bartimaeus]

Russian Warships Depart Tartus Ahead of Strikes on Syria

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/russian-american-warships-put-to-sea-ahead-of-strikes-on-syria#gs.APMHUKE

Click the above link to go to news source.

That's a new one.

Edited April 12, 2018 by Bartimaeus

[Drowsy Emperor]

It's not about intentionally starting a world war, it's a posturing and a **** measuring contest. The risk is that someone does something accidental or stupid along the way, while they're busy following the 'protocol' of international relations.

Edited April 12, 2018 by Drowsy Emperor

[Katphood]

https://youtu.be/3wIA_a7sEq4

 

Trippy!

[HoonDing]

im on team Russia

[Zoraptor]

It was not entirely clear on whose volition the Wagner mercs were acting and how they envisioned to carry out the attack without giving the U.S. an excuse to retaliate.That situation seems to have been a side issue, perhaps for local reasons and not specifically a matter of the Russia vs U.S. angle.

 

It was definitely local reasons- the son of the local tribe chief was killed and another injured, no one in the actual Syrian army was involved. The Conoco gas plant is also held by a competing branch of the same family.

 

The issue got muddled a lot when 'Girkin/ Strelkov' (VK account claiming to be him) said that 3x more russians were killed than the US DOD claimed were killed total in the incident and the press ran with that as gospel despite there being no evidence, let alone proof; but the best estimate is 8-12 Wagner deaths in a camp rather than as part of an active attack. Asymmetric attacks would be used if the governments wanted a fight, not direct ones. There's already at least two groups doing so.

 

Wait; so the UK poisoned their own double agent, 14 years after his last activities, while trying to pin it on Russia, but are totally inept, or have completely fabricated the story. Sounds legit.

 

As well as Boo's list, the guy was literally in prison in Russia, so they could easily have bumped him off at any time then and no one would have batted an eyelid.

 

In this case it being highly pure actually introduces problems as well, since purity also increases lethality. It also cannot have been 'pure' if applied as a paste since, obviously, it's mixed with the paste, but I'd admit that as being a technical objection to the term used more than a direct objection to the conclusion made.

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-trolls-denied-syrian-gas-attackbefore-it-happened?ref=home

​

​Russian troll accounts accuse Syrian rebels of the chemical attack being a false flag operation...weeks before it even happened?

 

That's a dreadful article but it does illustrate one interesting tactic. The Russians don't have to pick one of it being either a real attack perpetrated by the rebels or it not being an attack at all. That's like saying that a defence lawyer arguing that a murder victim is still alive, the evidence that was produced suggests he was stabbed rather than shot and the accused person has an alibi only reinforces the prosecution case- they can't even keep their story straight, the guy's alive but was stabbed and the accused guy wasn't there anyway? Clearly that reinforces his guilt since the prosecutor only has one story! Except per below the prosecutor has multiple stories as well.

 

The White Helmets are also an interesting one. They definitely moved some of the bodies in the recent attack to make it look more dramatic as there's absolute proof sufficient that even extreme rebel supporters like Julian Roepcke agree, and they definitely outright staged their Mannequin Challenge bomb victim recovery video and there's good evidence for others as well, and they definitely participated in beheading and mass execution videos since you can literally see them there, and they definitely have some members who are also HTS (crypto Al Qaeda) and other extremist group members, and that is definitely used as a way to get around funding issues since you're paying the white helmet not the extremist even if they're one and the same person. But, they also genuinely do respond to attacks and the like, and genuinely do do good work. So they're neither pure manufactured propaganda merchants nor angelic saints.