Political Twelve Monkeys

[smjjames]

Alright, I need a rundown on this Saudi Arabia / Lebanon scenario that is going down. It seems like some things are brewing, and something might go down soon.

The best that I can tell is that there is something going on. Right around the same time the Saudi Crown Prince did that little purge of his, the Lebanese PM (who has a dual Saudi-Lebanese passport, and citizenship too I think) was forced to go to SA and resign like Lebanon is a freaking vassal of SA, then SA allegedly declared war on Lebanon, and now SA is telling all of its citizens to leave Lebanon due to 'deteriorating situation' http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41932838 Kuwait seems to have followed suit.

 

It definetly has something to do with the Iran supported Hezbollah there since SA has been fighting a regional battle against Iran. But, attacking Lebanon might drag Syria in because even if Jordan reluctantly agrees to let SA through, they'd have to go through Syria to get to Lebanon.

 

Editwhiletyping: You know, they called that missile attempt an act of war but stopped short of outright declaring war on Iran and said that they would do something at a time and place of their choosing. Maybe attacking Lebanon (whose only crime is having an Iranian backed group in it) is their retaliation?

 

I really hope it doesn't erupt into a regional and direct conflagration between SA and Iran, but it seems to be slowly spiraling in that direction. Such a conflagration could possibly rearrange borders.....

 

And Trump would likely be cheering them on the whole way, making things even worse.

Edited November 10, 2017 by smjjames

[Zoraptor]

It's unlikely anything will actually go down, though you never know as the Saudi leadership's ego is only matched by their incompetence. They'd fight Hezbollah to the last Sunni Lebanese if they could, but even their main supporters in Lebanon are annoyed at having their leader kidnapped- and won't accept that he's resigned until he's back in Lebanon. That removes the one significant Lebanese group which could be pro Saudi, the rest are a few moronic Phalangist Christians and a few salafis. Mostly though, very few Lebanese want another civil war especially to benefit a bunch of stuck up Saudis.

 

Any logical analysis says nothing significant should happen and things like the recalls of nationals are economic in nature- gulfies love doing all the vices in liberal Beirut they can't at home, plus invest there heavily- but then there are stories about KSA being all set to literally invade Qatar until Rex reminded them that there's a massive US base there, or Saudi announcing an anti Houthi/ terrorist coalition that none of their supposed partners knew about. With three crises at the moment (purge, Yemen, Qatar) a rational player would not seek a 4th, the real question is exactly how rational KSA is. If anything their policies have been more erratic than Trump's.

[smjjames]

Hasn't the Qatar crisis stabilized by now? I mean, I don't think it's been resolved, but Qatar kind of worked their way around it and it's just a stalemate ATM.

 

Still, they seem to be trying to manufacture a crisis out of Lebanon where there isn't one (aside from kidnapping their PM like Lebannon is a vassal) and Kuwait followed suit with the warning for their citizens. Then again, SA and Iran are the equvalents of US and Soviet Russia in terms of throwing their weight around since their allies tend to follow SAs/Irans lead unquestionably.

Edited November 10, 2017 by smjjames

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

 

Better a hebephile than a Democrat is the motto?

What's the difference?

 

The Democrats don't get past 2nd base.

[Zoraptor]

Hasn't the Qatar crisis stabilized by now? I mean, I don't think it's been resolved, but Qatar kind of worked their way around it and it's just a stalemate ATM.

 

It's certainly a stalemate, but the Saudis are still trying stuff- they've been trying to set up a coup and there are still some pretty bizarre stories coming out of Al Arabiya (Saudi 'Al Jazeera', but worse in every way) about Qatar, intended to sway opinion and build a base for more action. If they got a chance they'd hot it up as it's a fat target with a tiny army, they're just stymied by the US and Turkey being there. Their proxies have also been fighting each other a lot in Syria, with the main Saudi one losing so badly that they're just about irrelevant now and that no doubt stings. Yemen is a similar situation- kind of a stalemate, at the moment, but still lots of potential to flare up.

Edited November 10, 2017 by Zoraptor

[Katphood]

Flynn probed for plot to kidnap Turkish cleric for $15M (nypost)

 

 

Well, well, well...

Edited November 10, 2017 by Katphood

[HoonDing]

Kingdom of Saud can't even beat a bunch of camel herders with kalashnikovs. What are they gonna do against Iran

[Guard Dog]

Who wore it better?

 

 

[Malcador]

Dude in the back

[Katphood]

Kingdom of Saud can't even beat a bunch of camel herders with kalashnikovs. What are they gonna do against Iran

 

Use the weapons that they just recently bought from the U.S. Iran doesn't mind a war though, it would be the perfect chance for their government to purge any sort of opposition.

[BruceVC]

http://www.localsyr.com/news/local-news/trump-says-he-believes-putins-election-meddling-denials/855613540

 

This has got to be a new low for Trump? I dont know of  ONE other US president who trusts Russia over there own intelligence agencies? GD, Gfted1 , Shady, Hurl, Gromnir , Red and all other US members this cannot be acceptable    

Edited November 11, 2017 by BruceVC

[Bartimaeus]

The real funny thing was Putin's office announcing that they didn't discuss "election meddling" at all right after Trump said that: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/359893-putin-trump-did-not-bring-up-election-meddling

Edited November 11, 2017 by Bartimaeus

[BruceVC]

The real funny thing was Putin's office announcing that they didn't discuss "election meddling" at all right after Trump said that: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/359893-putin-trump-did-not-bring-up-election-meddling

Barti this article is really funny in how it reveals the blatant inconsistency of the story  ...it made me laugh so much with the irony I am no longer in a irritable mood so thanks 

[Volourn]

"This has got to be a new low for Trump? I dont know of  ONE other US president who trusts Russia over there own intelligence agencies? GD, Gfted1 , Shady, Hurl, Gromnir , Red and all other US members this cannot be acceptable     :shrugz:"

 

I don't blame him. US 'intelliegcne agency' were - through Obama and others - claiming that it was compoletely impossible to hack US elections and that only betrayers and unpatriotic peeps would dare question the sanctity of US presidential elections. Only to after election  accuse Russia of hacking said elections and start investigations. LMAO

[smjjames]

http://www.localsyr.com/news/local-news/trump-says-he-believes-putins-election-meddling-denials/855613540

 

This has got to be a new low for Trump? I dont know of ONE other US president who trusts Russia over there own intelligence agencies? GD, Gfted1 , Shady, Hurl, Gromnir , Red and all other US members this cannot be acceptable

There was George W. Bush, I don't think he trusted Russia over his Intel agencies, but he did have that oh-so-famous "I looked into his eyes, saw his soul, and saw that he is a good guy." moment. I'm paraphrasing it somewhat, but it's the same underestimation of Putin that happened with Bush 43 and Obama, and Trump is far more naive than the previous two combined. Heck, I don't think he realizes that all the flattery and praise is just the other countries playing him to their advantage.

 

@volourn: Yeah, the two past administrations aren't innocent either in underestimating Russia. Not to mention falling into the "It's impossible to happen/it'll never happen" trap. Until said unimpregnable/unsinkable/unbreakable thing is shown to not be.

Edited November 11, 2017 by smjjames

[HoonDing]

Comey and Mueller should be locked up.

[smjjames]

Comey and Mueller should be locked up.

Why? I get the sentiment for Comey, who bungled thing up, but Mueller?

[Bartimaeus]

for comedic purposes

[BruceVC]

"This has got to be a new low for Trump? I dont know of  ONE other US president who trusts Russia over there own intelligence agencies? GD, Gfted1 , Shady, Hurl, Gromnir , Red and all other US members this cannot be acceptable     :shrugz:"

 

I don't blame him. US 'intelliegcne agency' were - through Obama and others - claiming that it was compoletely impossible to hack US elections and that only betrayers and unpatriotic peeps would dare question the sanctity of US presidential elections. Only to after election  accuse Russia of hacking said elections and start investigations. LMAO

volo you need to expeditiously and prudently update your understanding of the Russian cyber -espionage campaigns  against the USA  and other countries and developments like interfering in the US election

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/01/25/senates-investigation-into-alleged-russian-hacking-begins-without-end-in-sight/?utm_term=.2d995d546bec

 

http://www.factcheck.org/2017/06/timeline-russia-investigation/

 

No one is seriously asking  "did Russia interfere in the USA election "....we know they did, the evidence is irrefutable    

 

Of course Trump questions the evidence and so do some of his sycophants .....you could align with them but do you really want people to think you are a Trump-puppet ?   

[smjjames]

His point is more that some people (politicians mainly) weren't taking it as seriously as they should have. Warnings that our election system is vulnerable to cyber-espionage have been going around for some time, except Russia took a different (and probably more predictable) route. There's no evidence that votes were directly tampered with, which is great, but what's evident is that they had some help from a campaign staff full of people who didn't have actual campaign experience and did shady stuff, the fact that Clinton was a terrible candidate, and a whole lot of other factors.

 

Whether Russia actually tipped the scales or not with their meddling attempts, we'll never really know.

[213374U]

Of course the evidence is irrefutable. It's by definition impossible to refute evidence that nobody has actually seen.

[smjjames]

The meddling turned out to be closer to psychological warfare than cyber-warfare anyhow. The irrefutable evidence is that they were trying to, whether they actually had any effect isn't likely to be resolved.

[BruceVC]

His point is more that some people (politicians mainly) weren't taking it as seriously as they should have. Warnings that our election system is vulnerable to cyber-espionage have been going around for some time, except Russia took a different (and probably more predictable) route. There's no evidence that votes were directly tampered with, which is great, but what's evident is that they had some help from a campaign staff full of people who didn't have actual campaign experience and did shady stuff, the fact that Clinton was a terrible candidate, and a whole lot of other factors.

 

Whether Russia actually tipped the scales or not with their meddling attempts, we'll never really know.

I have to recognize your posting style adroitness, you often  make posts that I either agree with or it complements my point.... you improve on my point, impossible most would argue 

Of course the evidence is irrefutable. It's by definition impossible to refute evidence that nobody has actually seen.

You often good with words and its often funny 

 

But its not true there is no evidence but I am not going to post any links because I dont need convincing 

[Volourn]

"The meddling turned out to be closer to psychological warfare than cyber-warfare anyhow. The irrefutable evidence is that they were trying to, whether they actually had any effect isn't likely to be resolved."

 

Kanada, European countries, and a host of others all 'intervered' in the US elections in the same way.

 

It has also been determined that the US intervered in our last Kanadian election as well.

 

*shrug* The so called 'interverence'/'hacking' evidence that they've shared with us is that  Russia used internet memes and opinions to somehow convince everyone to vote for the 'wrong' candidate instead of the Chosen One time that the EU and others wanted. That is what the 'hacking' seems to amount to.

 

And, oh yeah,  DNC documents were released. :rollseyes: 

[smjjames]

By same way, you mean with statements like 'I like/don't like this person' and not trying to hide where it's coming from? That's not the same as doing it with malevolent intent and hiding the source of the messaging.

 

And yes, I know we've done meddling in other countries elections (South America mainly), which is why it was hypocritical when we reacted as we did given that we got a taste of our own medicine.

 

Though yeah, it's very unlikely that Russian meddling actually was the main reason Clinton lost, the Russians were taking advantage of a host of things that already existed for some time.

Edited November 11, 2017 by smjjames