Pillars of Eternity 2 and crowdfunding on Kickstarter?

[Stun]

Josh Sawyer's Dream RPG kickstarter.

Oh yeah.... Josh Sawyer's Dream RPG.... I can see it now.

 

History Simulator 2k15.

 

-Embark on an epic quest to live what they taught you in highschool and college.

-Fantastically balanced gameplay. Choose from 15 classes and 20 races. Do 10 points of damage at level one, with super intuitive, super uniform skills and feats per level up to increase that damage by .6 slashing! or .6 crushing! The harsh decisions are yours!

-A new, refreshingly comprehensive magic system. Choose from Yellow beams of light, Blue beams of light or Red beams of light!

-Choice and Consequence expanded - Every skill will present you with exactly 1 benefit and 1 detriment. Your swords now do 10.6 points of damage to the enemy AND render you blind, prone and slowed for 5.3 seconds.

-Hair style now affects attack speed.

- Dynamic Buffing system. Choose from an array of massively powerful, game-changing magical buffs ranging from +1 to hit, to +.0005 to damage over 2 seconds.

-Expanded Health system. To kill you, Enemies must now reduce your stamina, then reduce your endurance, then reduce your Endurance backup, then bring your health down to .1, then deplete your emergency health reserves to render you maimed. Then they have to hit you again within 11.8 seconds to render you dead.

-Immobile combat. An exclusive feature. Combat now reaches that next level of tactical gameplay by forcing combatants to focus exclusively on arm gestures and strategically spouted vocal attacks to achieve victory. (movement only allowed outside of combat)

-The return of Healing magicks! Priests now have access to powerful, high level spells like "bandage minor paper cut" (heals .06 point of health - reflex save for none), "reduce swelling" (heals .01 point of health over 4 seconds) and Minoletta's battlefield miracle (heal all allies and enemies of 1 health point in a 1.2 meter radius!)

 

LoL just kidding.

Edited March 7, 2015 by Stun

[anameforobsidian]

 

Plus, I'm not so sure Obsidian will make 4 millions dollars in sales. they knew the game would be made with or without the Kickstarter.

I'm willing to bet my testicles they'll easily clear that much in the first week

 

At $40 per copy, PoE would only need to sell about 100,000 copies to generate $4 million.

 

Personally, I'm betting PoE will sell about one million copies (which is less than what D:OS did, and Larian is a name hardly anyone has ever heard of.) And at 1 million in sales, that's.... $40 Million...which would mean that they don't need to kickstart PoE2.

 

 

The math is way off, but the conclusion is probably right.  Paradox will take its cut.  Let's pretend like it will be 10% of sales instead of the much larger amount it probably taking.  Steam and Gog will take their cuts, that one is pretty established at 30%.  Also, a couple hundred thousand at least will probably go to post game support.

 

If they sold one million copies, that'd be slightly under $25m for a very high estimate, before taxes.  Personally, I think Paradox is going to take over half revenue.  But even if paradox takes half they'd still get a little over the Kickstarter.

Edited March 7, 2015 by anameforobsidian

[aeonsim]

I suspect that a figure of 30-40% of the purchase price will likely end up with Obsidian, maybe 20-30% Paradox, 30% GoG/Steam & 10-20% Tax depending on the region.

Out of which every one will have to pay tax, so maybe $8M in hand if they sell a Million copies (possible) but the copies are unlikely to all be sold in the first 6 or so months and after that a decent % would probably come when sales are occurring on Steam or GoG so it could be instead that they end up with something closer to $6M in hand over a 1-2 year time period...

 

That's a decent amount of cash but it will be spread over time and thus they're likely to interested in getting some support for the next game... Of course there is always the slight chance that the game may do insanely well and sell 1million copies in the first 6-9months and then another million copies over the next few years in which case all bets are off as to what they'rd do (though they'rd be insanely happy, and you could expect major publishers to announce a string of similar games...).

 

Hell if sales are in the area of 1m in 6-9months and another million or two over the following year you might even see bioware trying a PC focused game rather than another of there interactive movies... I suspect we'd also have a decent chance of seeing Obsidian produce a Pathfinders RPG using a similar style of game play to PoE if PoE did that well.

 

I'd certainly be interested in seeing a JS ars magica RPG or Historical low magic RPG, and would happily throw $30 in it's general direction...

Edited March 7, 2015 by aeonsim

[Gairnulf]

I've seen a couple of these statements made by forum members here and it got me curious because I was doing some comparing with PoE pricing with some AAA titles.

 

The price for Dragon Age: Inquisition on Origin is $71 where I live (converted SEK to Dollar). SEK = Svensk krona (Swedish crown). Which means Dragon Age: Inquisition is priced differently depending on where you live, no? (A lot of new AAA titles on Origin goes for $60-$70 where I live by the way)

And here I am - had the doubtful privilege to buy DAI for 70 EUR.

 

Also, more perspective for those of you without badges:

 

Bronze = $5-$99 (Only $20 and above = Digital Copy though, which was limited to "25,000 backers", notice that it says "All Gone") 

Silver = $100-$499

Gold = $500+

 

$20 being the price for the Digital Copy (During Kickstarter, limited amount). $29 being the price for Slacker Backer (After Kickstarter). Then $25 for an Extra Digital Copy (During Pledge Site). I don't remember what the price was for a single Digital Copy (without any "Deluxe" deals) during the Pledge Site time, but I think it was in the $25-$30 range.

That's interesting, I made my pledge a couple of days after the Kickstarter campaign ended, it's $120 and my badge is bronze... hmmm

[ruzen]

I think the more important discussion is the team status. Did they gathered just for this game or going to continue together on other projects? 

Edited March 7, 2015 by ruzen

[Elerond]

 

Plus, I'm not so sure Obsidian will make 4 millions dollars in sales. they knew the game would be made with or without the Kickstarter.

I'm willing to bet my testicles they'll easily clear that much in the first week

 

At $40 per copy, PoE would only need to sell about 100,000 copies to generate $4 million.

 

Personally, I'm betting PoE will sell about one million copies (which is less than what D:OS did, and Larian is a name hardly anyone has ever heard of.) And at 1 million in sales, that's.... $40 Million...which would mean that they don't need to kickstart PoE2.

 

 

Obsidian don't get $40 per copy, but about half of that (steam cut, paradox cut, transaction fees, taxes, etc.). to get $4 million they need to sell somewhere 160k-200k copies with launch price. Paradox's CEO estimates in one interview that well received KS game will sell ten times of copies of what it had backers. Larian's Divinity Original Sin , which was one of most successful KS games sold bit over 500k copies in three months, inXile's Wasteland 2 was also successful but didn't reach D:OS's numbers (in my understanding, inXlie has not been most forthcoming with their sales numbers) even though they had more KS backers.

 

Of course Obsidian has three things that probably increase their sales compared to D:OS and Wasteland 2, first Obsidian is most known of three studios, second their publishing partner Paradox has loyal fan following that buys most of their games, third their game claims to be spiritual successor for IE games, which have legendary reputation with in gamers. Although there is also some factor that probably play against them compared to D:OS, like their release date isn't in time frame where there is no big and well marketed releases.

[Stun]

Lets also remember that not all copies of PoE will be priced at $40. I was being general. There's a bajillion different versions being sold on Steam & Gog. Prices range from $50 to $90.

[Elerond]

Lets also remember that not all copies of PoE will be priced at $40. I was being general. There's a bajillion different versions being sold on Steam & Gog. Prices range from $50 to $90.

 

But it is quite unlikely that those higher priced version will sell that much that they have major influence how much PoE will bring money for Obsidian and they also have goods from which they need to pay part of money to companies that produced those goods like Prima strategy guide and Dark Horse's Guidebook (meaning that even though they will bring more money than normal version will they probably don't bring double like price tag would indicate)

[Luckmann]

 

Lets also remember that not all copies of PoE will be priced at $40. I was being general. There's a bajillion different versions being sold on Steam & Gog. Prices range from $50 to $90.

 

But it is quite unlikely that those higher priced version will sell that much that they have major influence how much PoE will bring money for Obsidian and they also have goods from which they need to pay part of money to companies that produced those goods like Prima strategy guide and Dark Horse's Guidebook (meaning that even though they will bring more money than normal version will they probably don't bring double like price tag would indicate)

 

I don't know, man. These "special" editions probably sell like hot butter to select demographics, and probably make a noticeable difference, or they wouldn't have them to begin with.

[Elerond]

 

 

Lets also remember that not all copies of PoE will be priced at $40. I was being general. There's a bajillion different versions being sold on Steam & Gog. Prices range from $50 to $90.

 

But it is quite unlikely that those higher priced version will sell that much that they have major influence how much PoE will bring money for Obsidian and they also have goods from which they need to pay part of money to companies that produced those goods like Prima strategy guide and Dark Horse's Guidebook (meaning that even though they will bring more money than normal version will they probably don't bring double like price tag would indicate)

 

I don't know, man. These "special" editions probably sell like hot butter to select demographics, and probably make a noticeable difference, or they wouldn't have them to begin with.

 

 

It should remembered that many people from these selected demographics are already backers of this game and who already receive all additions and in many cases more that come with those editions.

 

In my knowledge special editions usually sell about 1-2% of what normal version of game sells. So they bring money in (like 1 million sold normal copies would mean 10-20k sold special editions which, in this case, would mean 300k-1M dollars, which is not meaningless which is why companies do them), but if normal version of game is not popular then those special editions will probably not sell that well either.

Edited March 7, 2015 by Elerond

[bonarbill]

 

Besides, we all know that it's Sony that ought to be afraid or releasing Bloodbourne too close to March 26

 

And btw, how the hell is a PS4-exclusive, action-oriented game a direct competitor to PoE? I for one have never even considered playing that game... 

You guys are the comical ones.  No one on this forum (from a business perspective) matters.  We are all statistically likely to have already purchased the game.  Those of us who haven't are almost 100% locks to buy it on the day it comes out.  This forum is what we call a "niche" though, to suggest that the majority gamer opinion is reflected here is beyond hilarious.  So when I posted what I did, I knew I would get comments like yours.

 

Bloodbourne is the spiritual successor to a game that has been called "One of the 10 best games ever made" by most of gaming journalism.  It also happens to be a mature, dark, gritty themed gothic action RPG.  I shouldn't really need to explain why people might be interested in both, and why some people of limited budget and means may have to choose one or the other.  I mean they literally come out two days apart.  If Bloodbourne were a PC release Eternity likely would have been a footnote on the steam main page and it would have had no chance in hell of topping the sales chart on release like Divinity did.

 

So I am not saying they shouldn't have released the game.  I am saying "Man, they sure do know how to pick release schedules that happen to fall on the same week as other major RPG releases don't they?"  I am also saying maybe releasing a couple weeks earlier, or a couple weeks later, would have seen no real competition of any kind on the RPG front.

 

Divinitiy didn't run the show on steam for around 3 weeks because it was that great a game, or not a niche title.  It was because nothing of any account came out that month other than Divinitiy, especially RPG wise.

 

 

As a big fan of the Dark Souls series, I can tell you that a twitch based action game does not equal an RPG.  I really wish people stop calling it one when it rarely has any of the RPG elements you usually in in RPGs.  If the DS games are RPGs, then any action game with progression is an RPG as well.

 

I'll be getting both Bloodbourne and PoE; however, if I was forced to get to pick one game, I would pick the game that appeals to me more (which is PoE atm), not because they're both RPGs (because one is not an RPG).

Edited March 7, 2015 by bonarbill

[Lychnidos]

You can check some data one the number of steam users that own the games released in 2014 in this ArsTechnica article, there is a big table on the last page. Divinity: Original Sin was present in the games library of 802315 Steam users by 26th of February, Wasteland 2 in 384760 user libraries.

[Abel]

I am working for-profit, I just don't overprofit. More money comes by more people buying my clothes, not by me overpricing them.

btw, since you want to know, I live in Greece, a country suffering by a huge financial crisis since 2011. Everything is difficult at the time. Thankfully I didn't have to fire anyone; I just didn't hire more staff when others went on retirement (the company is 34 years old - belonging to my mother and uncle before me and my brother). I'm left with four emploees now and I mostly work with externals.

 

Edit: I though that lowering your price will attract more people into buying your product instead of a similar more expensive, thus making you more competitive, not the other way around.

 

Only read this topic as far as page 6.

 

Interesting debate i must say. There is a book by Emile Zola named "Au bonheur des Dames". The story in it revolves around a new great shop which owner think "to make much profit, i have to sell a lot at low price", when the old little shops around think "I have to sell just a few things, but at high prices". Useless to say that at the end, only the new, large shop survive this economic war, with great profits, while the little owners decay in their rotten slums.

 

I may not have money shortage at the same level than Luckman, but still, true that 40+E is something. While i don't think it's overpriced, while i wish Obsidan could earn enough to self produce Eternity 2 in an even larger game, i don't think your point is unreasonable either. It's only logic. But dunno in this case which price would be fair. If i understood well, then, Obsidian didn't gain much money with New Vegas, because of a 84 metactric score (when the contract allowed them a bonus margin if the score reached 85. Awful, but it is another debate). In this case, and if i'm right, Obsdian looked more like employees than anything else: they made a product, had a salary for doing it, and that's it. if you withdraw the publisher cut of the price... well, you understand what i mean i guess. So what is a fair price? I have no idea.

 

If PoE2 is Kickstarted, i think i would back it. It's not just for the Obsidian sake, but i think this alternative economy model (KS) is hugely needed nowadays. Publishers, producers have to understand that selling **** with a nice and expensive package is nothing more than a scam. There is a problem particularly in cinema. They have self convinced themselves that they are right and that money can buy quality in art oO, while it's just the consequences of massive brainwashing with commercials. It's just lame. Visuals are the first thing we see about a game, and for marketing purposes, they overdid it (still with texture size in 512, you know why) until they could establish their own standards in quality as a dominant opinion of what quality is. Wasteland2 is a 4M game, and imo, it's way bigger than these AAA ****. Thus, if there is no good alternative to the traditional publishing way, then, nothing can change. May be my own utopia, but it's better than nothing.

[Stun]

In my knowledge special editions usually sell about 1-2% of what normal version of game sells. So they bring money in (like 1 million sold normal copies would mean 10-20k sold special editions which, in this case, would mean 300k-1M dollars, which is not meaningless which is why companies do them), but if normal version of game is not popular then those special editions will probably not sell that well either.

As far as I know, there isn't a 'normal edition' of PoE that you can buy from Steam.

 

http://store.steampowered.com/app/291650/

 

The cheapest is the 'Hero Edition", and it starts at $45, so, lets redo the math and assume a price point of $45 as the common unit.

[Nonek]

One thing to bear in mind is the long term return on investment that RPG's typically provide, sales may not be at Skyrim or Diablo levels but usually they keep selling year after year. I certainly hope Poe does for the good people of Obsidian, they've had more than their fair share of hard times.

[Karkarov]

This. There is a far greater overlap between PoE and GTAV, really, than a game most PC Gamers doesn't even appear to have heard anything about.

..... Anyone who isn't a die hard PC only fanboy has heard of it, even some of them will know it.  Or someone who just plain isn't a "gamer" wouldn't know I guess.  It has had cover features on most of the few gaming magazines left, gets posted about regularly on most gaming forums, and has some very active reddit traffic.  I am sorry you have never heard of it, but trust me, it isn't some small time game and it will be the top selling game it's release week even though it is a PS4 exclusive.  Sony thinks it will do well enough it will cause a PS4 sales spike and they actually paid for a tv commercial for it.

 

Also no, your insane, there is almost no overlap at all between GTA and Eternity other than Story Driven (sort of), and Exploration.  That's it.  GTAV isn't even an RPG.  So again, I wouldn't expect tons of lost sales to a game that 1: Isn't an RPG and 2: Already released on every system other than the PC.

 

As a big fan of the Dark Souls series, I can tell you that a twitch based action game does not equal an RPG.  I really wish people stop calling it one when it rarely has any of the RPG elements you usually in in RPGs.  If the DS games are RPGs, then any action game with progression is an RPG as well.

Have you read this forum?  50% of what most people consider to be an RPG is number crunching, mix maxing, and perfecting your build.  I shouldn't really need to explain how that applies to the Souls games if you have played them. I agree the narrative is "different" but there is a story there, it is just open to interpretation and you get out what you put in.

 

Seriously though please don't refer to it as "just an action game" because by your definition anything that isn't turn based is not an RPG.  I am pretty sure we can all agree it is possible to be an RPG and not be turn based.  Lastly it isn't a twitch based game... at all.  It is about learning attack patterns, how best to use your weapons/spells, and timing. In fact the best advice a new player can get is be patient and move slow and carefully, the exact opposite of twitch play.

Edited March 8, 2015 by Karkarov

[Kal Adan]

So again, I wouldn't expect tons of lost sales to a game that 1: Isn't an RPG and 2: Already released on every system other than the PC.

 

 Pillars of Eternity is to be released on the PC and while GTA is not same genre it's going to compete for attention on the same platform.

 

Have you read this forum?  50% of what most people consider to be an RPG is number crunching, mix maxing, and perfecting your build.

Builds in RPGs are done to let you role play your character in game. Can you role play in Souls? No. Because Souls are action games with some RPG elements in them that are there to help you customize your playstyle. Nothing more. People are free to think that RPG "is number crunching, min maxing, and perfecting your build", but this only shows they don't really understand the purpose of creating a character. Builds are only means to an end.

[Karkarov]

Builds in RPGs are done to let you role play your character in game. Can you role play in Souls? No. Because Souls are action games with some RPG elements in them that are there to help you customize your playstyle. Nothing more. People are free to think that RPG "is number crunching, min maxing, and perfecting your build", but this only shows they don't really understand the purpose of creating a character. Builds are only means to an end.

You can be your own character and have your own origin in any game if you want.  It isn't like Icewind Dale has any character development and any personality your character has is purely projected.  Is it not an RPG either?

 

Lets also remember that not all copies of PoE will be priced at $40. I was being general. There's a bajillion different versions being sold on Steam & Gog. Prices range from $50 to $90.

Let's also not forget that at least around 80k people who wind up with the game didn't buy it at retail to begin with.  I know someone quoted wasteland 2 in over 3 mil steam libraries but so what?  I accounted for 3 of those and I only backed wasteland 2 at the minimum level to get a copy of the game, which was something like 20 dollars.  I just kept getting keys for it from other things.  It has also been on steam sale for very low price multiple times.  I would bet you the average Wasteland 2 copy price is 20 dollars at best, probably lower.

Edited March 8, 2015 by Karkarov

[Kal Adan]

As an RPG Icewind Dale I was terrible for me. Icewind Dale II was much better in this regard. Baldur's Gate II was the best in terms of creating RPG feel while not forsaking combat (like Torment did. Torment had superior role-play aspect though, so it was something for something), although role-play aspects in Baldur's Gate [iI] were often fairly superficial, much like Bioware games are now. That's one of many reasons why I turned to Obisdian over Bioware lately as far as RPG genre is concerned.

 

Of course, it's only my personal view. Everyone has to answer "what makes an RPG?" on their own.

Edited March 8, 2015 by Kal Adan

[anameforobsidian]

 

 

Lets also remember that not all copies of PoE will be priced at $40. I was being general. There's a bajillion different versions being sold on Steam & Gog. Prices range from $50 to $90.

Let's also not forget that at least around 80k people who wind up with the game didn't buy it at retail to begin with.  I know someone quoted wasteland 2 in over 3 mil steam libraries but so what?  I accounted for 3 of those and I only backed wasteland 2 at the minimum level to get a copy of the game, which was something like 20 dollars.  I just kept getting keys for it from other things.  It has also been on steam sale for very low price multiple times.  I would bet you the average Wasteland 2 copy price is 20 dollars at best, probably lower.

 

 

At the same time, Wasteland 2 tripled the amount of money available for the game through early access.  And discussions I've had with other game creators are pretty clear, normally kickstarter is a tiny portion of your overall profits.

[anameforobsidian]

 

@Valmy

 

Do you have some ethics fetish? There is nothing about ethics in this conversation.

 

I don't think I need to explain to anyone else that the price of a product is directly tied to the development cost. So I will not bother to inform one ignorant.

 

Your case of developer pricing the game whatever they feel like is really paper thin. We all know how the games pricing looks like and indie Kickstarter games do not cost more than AAA titles. Obsidian overpriced PoE and that's a fact.

 

I would like to point out that Obsidian has spent a good deal of its own money and resources in developing PoE. I can understand that some people may feel the game is not worth what we are charging, but trust me when I say that this game has a lot of content in it. Lots more than many AAA titles I have worked on.

 

I would also like to point out that the price of a game is not always tied to development cost. As an example, Star Wars: The Old Republic cost $200 million dollars to develop, but when I purchased it, it was the same price as any other AAA PC game at the time. I am not sure how much the latest Dragon Age cost to develop, but it was probably significantly less. They are selling the game for $60... even more than I paid for SW:TOR. I realize that SW:TOR was likely relying on monthly payments to recoup cost, but it also has massive ongoing costs of a live team and many servers to upkeep. The case I just mentioned shows that sometimes it doesn't matter how much it cost to develop something, companies will only charge what they think people will pay for their game.

 

 

I think it would help if Obsidian were a bit more open about development costs.  The team has been incredibly open about the process, and has been willing to show broken features, etc. in the making.  But, as soon as it comes to costs Obsidian is incredibly closed-lipped.  That can create the appearance of impropriety even where there is none.

[Bryy]

 

 

 

Lets also remember that not all copies of PoE will be priced at $40. I was being general. There's a bajillion different versions being sold on Steam & Gog. Prices range from $50 to $90.

Let's also not forget that at least around 80k people who wind up with the game didn't buy it at retail to begin with.  I know someone quoted wasteland 2 in over 3 mil steam libraries but so what?  I accounted for 3 of those and I only backed wasteland 2 at the minimum level to get a copy of the game, which was something like 20 dollars.  I just kept getting keys for it from other things.  It has also been on steam sale for very low price multiple times.  I would bet you the average Wasteland 2 copy price is 20 dollars at best, probably lower.

 

 

At the same time, Wasteland 2 tripled the amount of money available for the game through early access.  And discussions I've had with other game creators are pretty clear, normally kickstarter is a tiny portion of your overall profits.

 

Kickstarter is not profit.

 

At all.

 

Let's repeat: Kickstarter donations are not profit.

[Bli1942]

I want them to do Kickstarter again. Like Shadowrun it will allow them to get most of the money they need to make a sequel through KS and profits from the previous game can help (you would hope) make it even better

 

More risk if they just fund it themselves without KS

[Naurgalen]

If the game and expansion are good, I will not only back the kickstarter if they do it, Ill in fact buy a better pack even while in my country it costs me "price" x10. But first, they must deliver a real good game.

[anameforobsidian]

Kickstarter is not profit.

 

 

 

 

At all.

 

Let's repeat: Kickstarter donations are not profit.

 

Several governments and kickstarter disagree.  Profit is money in - expenses, it doesn't matter where it comes from.

Edited March 9, 2015 by anameforobsidian