Ukraine burns

[Walsingham]

 

BTW, how many months has Obama got left in his tenure?

 

~32 months until 2016 elections not counting the lag from the elections to the swearing in ceremony

 

 

Shows what I know. Typically brinksmanship like this is what miscreants try when a President is beset elsewhere, or about to leave*. Mind you, what the hell has the Obama Whitehouse done internationally to deter any aggressive action against allies or potential allies?

 

 

*On reflection I'm not sure they DO try stuff on the out

[Zoraptor]

I'd still put money that the troops will at least nominally claim loyalty to Yanukovich or a continuation government- and you'd expect them to be using Russian kit in any case, the Ukrainian military itself is still using Russian kit. And the thought that everyone in the Ukrainian armed forces are happy with the current situation in rump Ukraine is probably naive.

 

Plus, if Russia splits off Crimea they're basically writing off the rest of the country forever, as that shifts the 50/50 split decisively. They might go for it, if they could get all that 50%, but that's a very risky strategy to go for. Safer to wait for the inevitable economic collapse, corruption and austerity to bring down the revolution, with perhaps a few 'helpful' pushes.

 

Still, a week late but I've now heard both AlJ and BBC mention the repealing of the minority language law. And if anyone wants some positive coverage...

 

 

Wouldn't be surprised if the net result of this were Crimea ending up like Transnistria.

You mean like in other "breakaway" regions across the former Soviet Union, such as in Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Moldova's Transnistria? Such intervention would be certainly labeled by russia as helping, defending or whatever bumper sticker that Putin daily slap on top. Surely nothing todo with establishing its dominance, arm wrestling the smaller player, maintaining economical monopoly over the EU and or political/military gains such as before. Although that strategically most important naval base in the Black Sea looks nice.

 

Yes, but then you have to explain how Kosovo- or indeed the independence of the SSRs, most of which had never had an actual independent existence stretching back centuries if they ever did- were Different, and weren't the west "helping", "defending", weren't about establishing dominance, arm wrestling, maintaining (establishing) economic dominance or political and military gains. Which can't really be done, because territorial integrity is very much a do as I say not as I do phenomenon. The SSRs in general were simply not designed to be independent, and you had Stalin and Krushchev arbitrarily rewarding their own ones so creating the flashpoints. Always amusing to see Rice/ Bush et al defending Stalin's transferrals...

 

And a reminder, since you brought up Ossetia in a previous post, OSCE explicitly blamed Georgia for starting that, plus Georgia explicitly targeted Russian peacekeepers causing multiple deaths. And, of course, the situation in Ossetia in the early 90s was equivalent to Kosovo, what with 100,000+ ethnic Ossetians ejected from Georgia, per HRW.

[Malcador]

So 2,000 Russian troops entered Crimea, apparently.  Well at Gvardeyskoye, anyway.

[Malcador]

 

 

BTW, how many months has Obama got left in his tenure?

 

~32 months until 2016 elections not counting the lag from the elections to the swearing in ceremony

 

 

Shows what I know. Typically brinksmanship like this is what miscreants try when a President is beset elsewhere, or about to leave*. Mind you, what the hell has the Obama Whitehouse done internationally to deter any aggressive action against allies or potential allies?

 

 

*On reflection I'm not sure they DO try stuff on the out

 

 

Has there been any 'aggressive action' threatened to US allies recently ?  And in any event, you think Russia's going to really care ?

[rjshae]

 

 

 

BTW, how many months has Obama got left in his tenure?

 

~32 months until 2016 elections not counting the lag from the elections to the swearing in ceremony

 

 

Shows what I know. Typically brinksmanship like this is what miscreants try when a President is beset elsewhere, or about to leave*. Mind you, what the hell has the Obama Whitehouse done internationally to deter any aggressive action against allies or potential allies?

 

 

*On reflection I'm not sure they DO try stuff on the out

 

Has there been any 'aggressive action' threatened to US allies recently ?  And in any event, you think Russia's going to really care ?

 

Russia may or may not care, but a full-on invasion will end up hurting them economically. It may lead to sanctions, loss of business  ties, and other impacts. The net impact depends on how much resistance the Ukraine is willing to raise.

[213374U]

Thought I'd chip in here as well as anywhere.

 

- Even if the men were soldiers turning up in their normal kit I'd expect the odd non-standard boot. Monte will back me up here.

- This is a magnificent move by Kremlin-aligned forces (note I'm not saying ordered by the Kremlin). The number of men involved is actually tiny, but the press value is huge. Last I heard no-one had been killed, so a prompt military response might end up looking paradoxically weak.

- The point of threatening the Crimea is firstly the strong ethnic Russian component (albeit a result of Stalin ethnic tidying), but much more importantly it boxes the Ukraine in. Whereas a free Ukrainian seaboard could lead to all sorts of shenanigans with foreign fleets peering into the Caucasus.

 

I don't know about the British Army, but in my experience standard-issue boots are murder on the feet if you need to do any actual ground stomping in them. Non-standard issue is not surprising here. The degree of gear customization seems to increase the more "elite" a unit is.

 

As for Stalin's russification of Crimea, I'm not so sure. Crimea has been part of Russia since the 18th century and there were already large amounts of ethnic Russians by then. Soviet russification policies are infamous, but the Soviets didn't actually invent them.

 

And with regards to your subsequent comment on Obama's inaction, I'm actually more inclined to believe that US Prezs are more likely to embark on a war when they have nothing to lose politically, i.e. near the end of their second term. What with the general public opinion against more wars and all. I doubt the rest of NATO would be happy to issue a DOW on Russia over this, either. As I said, at this point it's a strategic defeat for Russia anyway and I don't see how they could salvage the situation. Even reclaiming Crimea "for the Motherland!" wouldn't make up for the loss of Ukraine as a partner.

Edited February 28, 2014 by 213374U

[Fighter]

There is weird mind games going on. This guy has a rifle and no ammo anywhere in sight.

 

[Gorgon]

because Russian special forces moving in to secure bases and fleet assets would never think to not wear russian uniforms ?

[Tagaziel]

because Russian special forces moving in to secure bases and fleet assets would never think to not wear russian uniforms ?

Isn't it mandatory for troops to wear uniforms under international conventions Russia is a party to?

[Zoraptor]

There is weird mind games going on. This guy has a rifle and no ammo anywhere in sight.

Neither does the guy Tagaziel pictured on the previous page. Suppose they could be the same guy, but if so he's stopped to take off some equipment in between pictures.

[Gorgon]

 

because Russian special forces moving in to secure bases and fleet assets would never think to not wear russian uniforms ?

Isn't it mandatory for troops to wear uniforms under international conventions Russia is a party to?

 

In this case the need to keep a low profile would trump that ?

[Tagaziel]

In this case the need to keep a low profile would trump that ?

I think the fallout from disguised Russian troops securing Russian assets would be bigger than the fallout from uniformed Russian troops securing Russian assets. But yeah, this is a really troubling development and the communications blackout makes any kind of definite answer impossible.

 

EDIT

 

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/28/exclusive-russian-blackwater-takes-over-ukraine-airport.html

 

The troops are allegedly a Russian PMC. Source and its reliability unknown.

Edited March 1, 2014 by Tagaziel

[Mor]

 

You mean like in other "breakaway" regions across the former Soviet Union, such as in Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Moldova's Transnistria? Such intervention would be certainly labeled by russia as helping, defending or whatever bumper sticker that Putin daily slap on top. Surely nothing todo with establishing its dominance, arm wrestling the smaller player, maintaining economical monopoly over the EU and or political/military gains such as before. Although that strategically most important naval base in the Black Sea looks nice.

 

Yes, but then you have to explain how Kosovo- or ...

 

How so? iirc you or at least several other people keep bringing Kosovo as an example of what not todo, I don't suppose that your argument for Russian invasion of Ukraine being legitimate, warranted or being benefit Ukraine is based on finger pointing.. ( btw what is your stance here? )

 

Also here is a quick map I drew:

 

I find it interesting that those three incidents happened\ing in countries bordering Russian sphere of influence which either joined or wished to join the EU. Don't you?

 

And a reminder, since you brought up Ossetia in a previous post, OSCE explicitly blamed Georgia for starting that, plus Georgia explicitly targeted Russian peacekeepers causing multiple deaths. And, of course, the situation in Ossetia in the early 90s was equivalent to Kosovo, what with 100,000+ ethnic Ossetians ejected from Georgia, per HRW.

 I am not planing to rehash this Kosovo vs Georgia, since I don't see how it is relevant to our case, but here is couple of articles/sentences I quickly goggled if you a are interested:

 

This is not to deny the superficial similarities.. Georgia has been, in a real sense, the revenge for the independence of Kosovo.. Russian stance driven in part by its wish to avoid setting a precedent for Chechnya or other restive republics within Russia.. Russian forces have acted as self-interested troublemakers, not as neutral peacekeepers.

 

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/fighting_words/2008/08/south_ossetia_isnt_kosovo.html

http://www.economist.com/node/12009678

Edited March 1, 2014 by Mor

[Mor]

- This is a magnificent move by Kremlin-aligned forces (note I'm not saying ordered by the Kremlin). The number of men involved is actually tiny, but the press value is huge. Last I heard no-one had been killed, so a prompt military response might end up looking paradoxically weak.

- The point of threatening the Crimea is firstly the strong ethnic Russian component (albeit a result of Stalin ethnic tidying), but much more importantly it boxes the Ukraine in. Whereas a free Ukrainian seaboard could lead to all sorts of shenanigans with foreign fleets peering into the Caucasus.

I agree, although I doubt it will lead to anything else. Russia don't want to "free" Crimea exactly because all that jazz in the Caucasus. There is no single benefit of Russia suporting invasion\secession that I can think off.

 

However, this is a great "PR" i.e. blowing out of proportions the events (couple of days marginal protest in Crimea, compared to month's of huge protest in Kiev and the rest of the country) they unsettle the new Pro-western Ukraine interim government, and place their own agenda on the table(e.g. playing on persecution of Russians), in hope that they can net a big turn out in the upcoming elections to get the pliable new government the want without firing one shot.

Edited March 1, 2014 by Mor

[Zoraptor]

How so? iirc you or at least several other people keep bringing Kosovo as an example of what not todo,

It isn't an example of what not to do. It's an example of how it's OK for us to do something, but not OK for the Russians to do the same thing. You either have an independent Kosovo because they were treated badly by the Serbs (rather a gross simplification of course, but nuance in that case would take hours and a Balkan history lesson) and independent South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Nagorno Karabakh, Transnistria etc because they were treated badly, or you don't have the lot. Going on about territorial integrity being sacrosanct is fine, if you honour it yourself. If it's only a rule for your enemies, not you, then you cannot hardly complain when they ignore it. After all, you've done exactly the same thing.

 

I don't suppose that your argument for Russian invasion of Ukraine being legitimate, warranted or being benefit Ukraine is based on finger pointing.. ( btw what is your stance here? )

My stance on what exactly? If it's on territorial integrity then it's meh, don't really care. I tend to think that Kosovo should be split with the north going to Serbia and the south to Albania, as that seems to be the best and fairest solution. For Ukraine, it's an artificial country made up on the basis of internal Soviet divisions that were never intended to have any practical consequence at all. Let the people who want to join Russia do so, let the people who want to be Ukrainian do so, let the people who may want to be Polish/ Romanian/ Hungarian be so.

 

I find it interesting that those three incidents happened\ing in countries bordering Russian sphere of influence which either joined or wished to join the EU. Don't you?

 

No, I don't really find it interesting, I'm afraid, I find it rather humdrum and par for the course. I lack the... belief needed to think that exactly the same thing doesn't and wouldn't happen to countries the West dislikes. After all, you didn't hear politicians and media saying the world would end when Lvov declared independence a couple of weeks ago, because at that stage Ukraine was still in Russia's sphere. Same as you didn't hear the same politicians and media saying that Ukraine should be left to make its own decisions a week or so ago- it's only once you can rely on them to make the 'right' decisions that they should be left alone to make them, whether you're Russia, or the EU/ US.

 

This is not to deny the superficial similarities.. Georgia has been, in a real sense, the revenge for the independence of Kosovo

 

You've got the timeline wrong way around. Both SOssetia and Abkhazia were de facto independent long before Kosovo. It's just that they had not sought formal recognition of that fact, indeed this was something Kosovo only did after years of de facto independence as well.

 

.. Russian stance driven in part by its wish to avoid setting a precedent for Chechnya or other restive republics within Russia.. Russian forces have acted as self-interested troublemakers, not as neutral peacekeepers.

 

Russia doesn't give a toss about setting a precedent, because nobody will do anything about Chechnya, or Ingushetia, or Dagestan apart from write the odd Strongly Worded Letter.

 

Your articles are garbage by the way, riddled with obvious factual errors. I can go through them in detail, but meh, boring. Just a taster though: Russia didn't complain about Abkhazia or South Ossetia prior to Georgia becoming independent? No asterisks, Sherlock Hitchens. Could, just possibly, maybe a thought be because they were part of the same country before that event. And, of course, neither author has bothered to read anything about prior events because they paint the Georgians in an extremely dim light. They ethnically cleansed 2/3 of the Ossetian population from Georgia outright, albeit according to notoriously pro- Russian group Pravda Itar-Tass, uh, Human Rights Watch?

[Sarex]

I tend to think that Kosovo should be split with the north going to Serbia and the south to Albania, as that seems to be the best and fairest solution.

 

It's not anywhere near fair, but I'll skip that. The split will never happen and not because Serbia doesn't want it to happen(it doesn't), but because it would be anti productive to the US. They have their military interest there (camp Bondsteel), for which it suits them to have an independent Kosovo that answers only to them.

[Walsingham]

One thing I would say, Zor. Analytically, I can see that the Kremlin is making moves to secure its independence and national security.

 

But what I take away after that analysis is the knowledge that Russia means for every single one of its Western (as in direction) neighbours to be weak, supine, and fractured.

 

How ought those neighbours, and those looking to engage with them, feel about Russia? Like Russia are a screaming pack of ****. Quite frankly.

[obyknven]

Russia make decision use military forces for protect Russians in Crimea. They must only provide security and prevent attacks of extremists

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhphhbEIMAAck3f.jpg

In other East Ukrainian cities begin Anti-maidan rebellions also. Usurpers in Kiev fell in panic, army can in any moment rebel against them, probably soon they just flee from country with stolen money. In this case Russia protect entire Ukraine from chaos and help to Ukrainian people democratically elect new government.

[Tagaziel]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035

 

Duma approves military action.

[obyknven]

Blocked Ukrainian military base.

http://youtu.be/yC1U_y0xqxc

 

Everything looks peacefull in Crimea now. Ukrainian Army don't want fight for Kievan usurpers.

[Meshugger]

Oh dear.

[Mor]

 

I don't suppose that your argument for Russian invasion of Ukraine being legitimate, warranted or being benefit Ukraine is based on finger pointing.. ( btw what is your stance here? )

My stance on what exactly? If it's on territorial integrity then it's meh, don't really care. [..] For Ukraine, it's an artificial country made up on the basis of internal Soviet divisions that were never intended to have any practical consequence at all. Let the people who want to join Russia do so, let the people who want to be Ukrainian do so, let the people who may want to be Polish/ Romanian/ Hungarian be so.

 

The question was about your stance on Russian invasion (highlighted above) in light of reports of Russian PMC taking control of Government buildings, Airport and troop movment. Basically what if turns out that Russia is making territorial gains if their bid for pliable Ukrainian government to pro-Russian policy and, potentially subordinating Ukraine economically and politically. That and everything it would involve for the regional stability (e.g. Tatar taking cue from Caucasus)

 

Also whatever your opinion about earlier Soviet divisions is, I hope you don't confuse it with legal case for Russia invasion, which it doesn't have. Although, I am happy that you think that people like those in Caucasus should be free to choose who to join. Though Russian war in the Caucasus show that they don't really care about that.

 

 

I find it interesting that those three incidents happened\ing in countries bordering Russian sphere of influence which either joined or wished to join the EU. Don't you?

No, I don't really find it interesting, I'm afraid, I find it rather humdrum and par for the course. I lack the... belief needed to think that exactly the same thing doesn't and wouldn't happen to countries the West dislikes.

 

Indeed it is rather humdrum and par for the course for you to deflect to the west again. Kind like with Robbed Cossack's before crying bias.

 

For those who are interested in this crisis. That map makes Russian stated motivations a suspect even to the naked eye. It makes more sense if you are familiar with those cases, economical/political context since 90s, previous crisis and Russian covert operations here; and it would allow you to draw parallels between the rhetoric, threats and military build up now and the prelude to Russian invasion of Georgia under pretext of peace keeping.

 

It isn't an example of what not to do. It's an example of how it's OK for us to do something, but not OK for the Russians to do the same thing. You either have an independent Kosovo because they were treated badly by the Serbs (rather a gross simplification of course, but nuance in that case would take hours and a Balkan history lesson)

It is a gross simplification, especially the part where you make a false equivalence between the circumstances and the action taken by Russia and NATO. So I will reiterate what I said in my previous post, which despite being the first two goggle post result provide more nuance on the matter.

I am not planing to rehash this Kosovo vs Georgia, since I don't see how it is relevant to our case, but here is couple of articles/sentences I quickly goggled if you a are interested:

 

This is not to deny the superficial similarities.. Georgia has been, in a real sense, the revenge for the independence of Kosovo.. Russian stance driven in part by its wish to avoid setting a precedent for Chechnya or other restive republics within Russia.. Russian forces have acted as self-interested troublemakers, not as neutral peacekeepers.

 

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/fighting_words/2008/08/south_ossetia_isnt_kosovo.html

http://www.economist.com/node/12009678

[Fighter]

Well it's official now. Whatever it will be.

 

Hopefully this is as terrifying as it gets...

 

[obyknven]

Today at night Ukrainian armed forces try capture building of Crimean police. This attack caused wounds to few Crimeans and Russians. For prevent of future violation Russian government make decision use force for pacification of Ukraine. It's not about Russian invasion, it's about rebellions in Ukrainian regions against non-legit government in Kiev. All talks about Russian invasion it's just Kievan propaganda (this give to Kievan usurpers possibility execute any opposition as traitors and agents of scary Putin).

 

http://searchnews.info/54352-vooruzhennyy-otryad-iz-kieva-popytalsya-zahvatit-mvd-kryma.html
 

[obyknven]

Helicopters of Crimean Selfdefense. Citizens are happy.

http://youtu.be/LYFh2lABg48