What you did today

[AGX-17]

 

Walked to Widmer, drank Hefe, staggered back home, somehow. Started biology research project. Unironically related to yeast.

 

Excellent job researching your project beforehand!

 

So is this the Widmer brewery that you went to?  I haven't been to that one yet, I'll have to make a trip there.  I've done tours at Gordon Beirsch and Deschutes, as well as a bunch of smaller breweries.

 

Yeah, Widmer Bros. in North Portland. Old vanguard of the local craft beer movement/industry (started in the year of my birth, less than a mile away, an auspicious coincidence.) Gasthaus/pub open daily, tours are on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. I didn't go for the tour, obviously, not being a tourist in my own neighborhood.

 

 

I do question how different the standard of living is compared to 1984.  I know people who make very little, yet they have smart phones and flatscreen TV's.

Even in the developing world, people are willing to make nutritional sacrifices to get TVs and cellphones. Sort of like how certain ethnic minorities in the US buy luxury cars (BMW, Benz, etc.,) instead of, say, saving that money to send their kids to college. Testament to the power of capitalist consumerism in the world today.

Edited October 20, 2013 by AGX-17

[kgambit]

Fun Fact, in the USA the cost of living has gone up about 100% since 1984, but the average income has stayed the same over that same period.

 

Funny because I don't think that is entirely true or at least not the inference that purchasing power is down.  Ok the cost of living part is true; the dollar is worth about half of what it was in 1984.  But I don't think it's true about income at all, and definitely not true about purchasing power.  

 

Calax, you must have been looking at inflation adjusted data.  In terms of actual dollars, the trends are decidedly up.  

(If you have links that suggest the following data are in error please share) 

 

Household income (nominal - unadjusted for inflation)

 

http://econintersect.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Income-Growth-4.png

 

individual income.- (nominal - unadjusted for inflation)

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dHK3tHSCFoE/TuP-C5l1x9I/AAAAAAAADlE/5dSk3OPWdRk/s1600/Screen+shot+2011-12-10+at+7.47.55+PM.png

 

income by income quintile (nominal - unadjusted for inflation) is up across all income groups. 

 

 

The real disparity in the curves is apparent after adjusting for inflation, although the lowest income groups at least stayed level with inflation, it was the upper income levels that actually showed gains.  The bottom line is that no income group has lost ground to inflation (except perhaps very recently due to the recession)

 

 

 

Hourly compensation rates (or their salaried equivalents) have stagnant (or relatively so) in the lower income groups.  Cost of living adjustments have been sufficient to maintain purchasing power for lower income groups.  The effects of increased worker productivity have been realized only at the corporate and upper income tiers and not at the median income levels or lower.   That has resulted in an increasing wedge between the wealth held the two tiers. 

 

Edit:  I removed a couple of images simply to reduce the size of the wall of text.  You can click on the links to open the images in another window. 

Edited October 20, 2013 by kgambit

[Calax]

 

Fun Fact, in the USA the cost of living has gone up about 100% since 1984, but the average income has stayed the same over that same period.

 

Funny because I don't think that is entirely true or at least not the inference that purchasing power is down.  Ok the cost of living part is true; the dollar is worth about half of what it was in 1984.  But I don't think it's true about income at all, and definitely not true about purchasing power.  

 

Calax, you must have been looking at inflation adjusted data.  In terms of actual dollars, the trends are decidedly up.  

(If you have links that suggest the following data are in error please share) 

 

Household income (nominal - unadjusted for inflation)

 

http://econintersect.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Income-Growth-4.png

 

individual income.- (nominal - unadjusted for inflation)

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dHK3tHSCFoE/TuP-C5l1x9I/AAAAAAAADlE/5dSk3OPWdRk/s1600/Screen+shot+2011-12-10+at+7.47.55+PM.png

 

income by income quintile (nominal - unadjusted for inflation) is up across all income groups. 

 

The real disparity in the curves is apparent after adjusting for inflation, although the lowest income groups at least stayed level with inflation, it was the upper income levels that actually showed gains.  The bottom line is that no income group has lost ground to inflation (except perhaps very recently due to the recession)

 

Hourly compensation rates (or their salaried equivalents) have stagnant (or relatively so) in the lower income groups.  Cost of living adjustments have been sufficient to maintain purchasing power for lower income groups.  The effects of increased worker productivity have been realized only at the corporate and upper income tiers and not at the median income levels or lower.   That has resulted in an increasing wedge between the wealth held the two tiers. 

 

Edit:  I removed a couple of images simply to reduce the size of the wall of text.  You can click on the links to open the images in another window. 

 

This is from the GM chief economists presentation to dealers to basically "prepare to not have many new car sales"

 

 

And here's a bit from the New York Times about income stagnation

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/24/us/politics/income-stagnation-and-inequality.html?_r=0

Where your median family income has barely moved since 1980, while according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics since 1984 inflation has reduced the purchasing power of the dollar. What you could buy for 100 bucks in 84, now costs upwards of 200 (according to the consumer price index).

[Walsingham]

I confess that after two bottles of wine I'm not able to critique this debate. But I think I can ask a question:

 

Is the stagnation a function of the central role in the World economy, played by the dollar and the US citizen? In other words, the fact that all sorts of developing nations who were pure suppliers in the 1980s are now producers?

[kgambit]

 

 

Fun Fact, in the USA the cost of living has gone up about 100% since 1984, but the average income has stayed the same over that same period.

 

 

 

 

This is from the GM chief economists presentation to dealers to basically "prepare to not have many new car sales"

 

 

 

And here's a bit from the New York Times about income stagnation

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/24/us/politics/income-stagnation-and-inequality.html?_r=0

Where your median family income has barely moved since 1980, while according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics since 1984 inflation has reduced the purchasing power of the dollar. What you could buy for 100 bucks in 84, now costs upwards of 200 (according to the consumer price index).

 

 

 

Your initial claim was based on prices versus income from 1984 and then you show a plot that only goes back to 1999.  I can't see the entire NYTimes graph (I'm not a subscriber and I've hit my monthly limit of articles) but I can tell that is it adjusted for inflation.   

 

My graphs go all the way to 1984.  They show continual income growth to 1999, then a lower rate of increase after that until around 2008, and then the fit hits the shan.  I'll agree with you that recent inflation adjusted incomes are "stagnant" or in the crapper.  Your choice; either works for me. 

 

If you want to argue that the disparity in income is also responsible for a widening wealth wedge between the 1% and the middle class, I'm on board.  

 

Edit:  I'll even concede that simply maintaining the status quo versus inflation isn't good enough.  After all, if I start out at an entry level position and work my way up the corporate ladder (god how cliché) then I should realistically expect to see some actual improvement in my situation.  I should be able to eat out a bit more, entertain more, buy nicer stuff, travel, whatever lifestyle perks float your boat.  If all my hardwork does is simply leave me no better off in terms of my real buying power than that is bullocks.  So if THAT was your point, fine,  I get it and I agree. 

 

The real income stagnation occurs more recently.  It really starts in 2008/2009.

 

 

The nominal income numbers from 2000 to 2008 match yours.

Edited October 20, 2013 by kgambit

[kgambit]

I confess that after two bottles of wine I'm not able to critique this debate. But I think I can ask a question:

 

Is the stagnation a function of the central role in the World economy, played by the dollar and the US citizen? In other words, the fact that all sorts of developing nations who were pure suppliers in the 1980s are now producers?

 

After two bottles of wine I couldn't spell critique .....

 

I don't think it's a global issue Wals.  I recall seeing a plot of US vs UK income.  I don't recall the exact time frame except it did include the period from 2000 to 2010 or 2012.  What it showed was that UK incomes continued their upward climb while US incomes tended to flatten out.   I would think that would seem to indicate that the phenomenon is localized to the US and not global, but it would be interesting to see if other countries showed the same flattening.

 

Sorry for the double post.  Wals posted while I was typing the previous post.

 

Edit:  If all this wasn't bad enough, the discussion is complicated by the fact that there are multiple deflators that can be used that are tied to the CPI.  ARRRGH.

Edited October 20, 2013 by kgambit

[Calax]

I would post the graphs from the Times but they format stuff stupidly.

 

The third one is the one I'm looking at the most, it tracks the 50th, 90th, 95th, 99th, 99.9th and 99.99th percentiles of income and how it's changed since 1980. The changes are 11%, 21% 32% 63% 115% and 199% respectively (over their income at 1980).

 

And the note on the BLS data, I don't post that directly because their website gives you dynamic generation.

 

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt

 

That's the Consumer Price index for urban consumers, with reverse inflation included.

[kgambit]

 

That's the Consumer Price index for urban consumers, with reverse inflation included.

 

What do you mean reverse inflation is included?  Are you saying that the CPI-U numbers are deflated for inflation? 

 

I understand the concept of reverse inflation.  That's asking "if I get 10,000$ in 20 years, what is the present day buying power?".  

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

Hey guys....

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/64525-real-wages-and-inflation/

 

I think we would be better served discussing this without tales of Ros' escapades interrupting.

[ShadySands]

Had a good day

 

Read a lot of charts and graphs

[Gorgon]

Where the in the nine hells is the straigth quote -->  " in Word. I can only find the squiggly one. And apparently it doesn't come with sans sarif. Apparently this matters for submissions. 

Did they run out of things to annoy students with.

[Gorgon]

Yeah so that's what happens when you edit without java.

[Walsingham]

Appear to have created a generic response for 95% of the problems I try to tackle. I will either live very relaxedly for the rest of my life, or be killed by my professional associates for devaluing the skills we have.

 

Either way I'm taking the rest of the morning off.

[kgambit]

Hey guys....

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/64525-real-wages-and-inflation/

 

I think we would be better served discussing this without tales of Ros' escapades interrupting.

 

Fair enough.  We'll continue there.  Sorry for the digression. 

[Woldan]

Today I picked a bunch of daisy flowers and ate them.  Those are edible and extremely tasty

[Raithe]

Been trying to read through my old Complete Reference HTML and what's different nowadays. That and various other general research on current web design. I think the last time I made any proper attempt at it  was in the days of netscape navigator and IE 4 or 5....

[Enoch]

Something in the HVAC/lighting/electrical/whatever system here at work is making a constant high-pitched ringing noise near my office, and it is driving me nuts. 

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

Something in the HVAC/lighting/electrical/whatever system here at work is making a constant high-pitched ringing noise near my office, and it is driving me nuts.

 

Consider it preparation for dealing with an infant.

[Rosbjerg]

Intense dream last night that's still haunting me this evening. It was just me walking and talking with a middleage women about life, choices, dreams and aspirations. But she was so real and so unlike anything I've ever met before. I find it very very hard to believe that my brain could conjure such a complete being up, even though I know it did. I guess perhaps I'm just amazed at the power of our minds. Or at least how good they are at fooling us.

[Enoch]

In other news, Project Furlough Beard has survived the return to actual work (minus a little clean-up along the neck and cheekbones) and has just completed its third week. 

 

An exact quote from my wife on the subject:  "I think I like it, but I'm not sure how I feel about it being on your face." 

[ShadySands]

Just finishing up some work at the moment (whenever someone abbreviates it as atm I always read it with a much dirtier meaning, I'm just lucky that way I guess)

 

Fell in love with my wife all over again today

 

Me: Times like this I think to myself what would Jesus Shuttlesworth do?

Her: I dunno, prolly shoot the three 

[Monte Carlo]

I am gearing up for Movember and am planning something like this...

 

[Walsingham]

Something in the HVAC/lighting/electrical/whatever system here at work is making a constant high-pitched ringing noise near my office, and it is driving me nuts. 

 

Ululating pixies.

[Raithe]

Well it's miserably grey and pissing it down with rain. I've got a mixture of headache and foggy mind from not so great sleep, and the dog's been dropped around with us again in the hope that with someone present he won't spend a chunk of time trying to gnaw at his tail. On the somewhat balanced side, mom had a hospital appointment with one of the specialists, and for now it looks like she won't have to see the dermatologist for another 6 months... as long as nothing flares up and none of the other issues spike complications.

 

Had a brief catchup with an old friend last night, filling her in on various things in life and other friends, partly on the spate of engagements, marriages, births, etc... and ended up getting the "So when are you going to settle down/get married/have some kids?" line of questioning. Hm, I seem to be friends with a fair few ladies who I can do the "amusing/entertainingly flirt" with that's never serious or crosses a line (because a chunk of them also date my friends), and they all seem to be doing the "why are you single??" question at me of late.

[Walsingham]

Not to be harsh, Raithe, but might it be because your emotional landscape is basically the Somme 1916? Washed out, bombed out, scrapped over. French.