Kim Jong Il dies

[Walsingham]

North Koreans weeping hysterically over the death of Kim Jong-il

 

Farewell dear leader.

 

Actually I can believe that they genuinely would. The Party made him tehre God. How would YOU feel if God died?

 

Well, surprised, obviously. In some cases. But after that, it would be pretty damned weird.

 

EDIT @ Morgoth. I'll have you I make perfectly good toast.

Edited December 20, 2011 by Walsingham

[WDeranged]

Yeah I don't doubt a large amount of people are genuinely brainwashed to the point of devastation, the rest will be paid mourners, it's hilarious and tragic...tragilarious? tragilicious?

 

One of those

[Gorgon]

Let me suggest another analogy. A teenage boy who was never allowed to rebel against his mother, thus leading to an unhealthy co-dependent relationship. Now 40 years old he still lives in her basement and is rarely allowed anyoutside human contact, nor would he do very well in situations outside the confines of his imaginary kingdom.

[Malcador]

Let me suggest another analogy. A teenage boy who was never allowed to rebel against his mother, thus leading to an unhealthy co-dependent relationship. Now 40 years old he still lives in her basement and is rarely allowed anyoutside human contact, nor would he do very well in situations outside the confines of his imaginary kingdom.

 

So you're saying I'm not going to be successful in life, then ?

[bigcrazewolf]

I have read a few times it's believed some of the high ranking military brass don't like him, or feel allegiance to him.

[Guard Dog]

So... anyone want to bet this guy ends up dying of a 9mm brain tumor before long?

[Syraxis]

So... anyone want to bet this guy ends up dying of a 9mm brain tumor before long?

 

Considering his uncle & family has more influence in the government, that wouldn't surprise me.

[Nepenthe]

There have been plenty of dictators and other leaders who ruled just fine at that age, you know, both ancient and modern history.

 

'Just fine' in the sense that they didn't immediately implode the country, that is.

But wouldn't imploding the country be the best possible outcome?

[Tigranes]

No, no, no, no.

 

Twenty million North Koreans, most of them poor and malnourished, streaming over to a South Korea where Seoul is already one of the top ~3 highest concentrations of people in the world?

 

The government caught in election year and likely with zero real planning done to establish legal and administrative frameworks for a NK that is *larger* than SK waiting for capitalists to go in and start randomly grabbing land, appropriating factories, buying up half of Pyongyang, putting North Koreans into Dickensian labour at half the pay of SK minimum wage?

 

South Koreans who are by now a lot more ambiguous about unification, some of whom actually support a two-state solution, and in fact generally tend to treat NK defectors like second class citizens by not giving them decent jobs?

 

One million North Korean soldiers and old generals that are going to look for something concrete before they all just hand over their arms and surrender?

 

How about the fact that North Koreans now speak a significantly different dialect of Korean from the SK's? That since most of them don't know how to use a computer, etc., there's going to be a massive generational disadvantage leading to socioeconomic gulfs?

 

It's going to be a lot more painful than Germany, and possibly even more expensive, which SK may be able to afford but certainly isn't going to like. I personally support unification and think in the long run it will be a great thing, and I don't know if SK will ever be 'ready' for it, but an immediate implosion now could be very bad.

[Tale]

Yeah, the greatest threat to the world NK poses, and has posed for a little while now, is that of a humanitarian crisis. Which is not a thing to be taken lightly.

[Gorgon]

No, no, no, no.

 

Twenty million North Koreans, most of them poor and malnourished, streaming over to a South Korea where Seoul is already one of the top ~3 highest concentrations of people in the world?

 

The government caught in election year and likely with zero real planning done to establish legal and administrative frameworks for a NK that is *larger* than SK waiting for capitalists to go in and start randomly grabbing land, appropriating factories, buying up half of Pyongyang, putting North Koreans into Dickensian labour at half the pay of SK minimum wage?

 

South Koreans who are by now a lot more ambiguous about unification, some of whom actually support a two-state solution, and in fact generally tend to treat NK defectors like second class citizens by not giving them decent jobs?

 

One million North Korean soldiers and old generals that are going to look for something concrete before they all just hand over their arms and surrender?

 

How about the fact that North Koreans now speak a significantly different dialect of Korean from the SK's? That since most of them don't know how to use a computer, etc., there's going to be a massive generational disadvantage leading to socioeconomic gulfs?

 

It's going to be a lot more painful than Germany, and possibly even more expensive, which SK may be able to afford but certainly isn't going to like. I personally support unification and think in the long run it will be a great thing, and I don't know if SK will ever be 'ready' for it, but an immediate implosion now could be very bad.

 

I wonder if all those poor malnourished North Koreans would call it that.

[Malcador]

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2008...s&page=full

 

Interesting old article. This segment elicited a nice headshake from me

 

In late 1993, when North Korea was gearing up to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, fears of an imminent war broke out across the Korean Peninsula. The eyes of the world were firmly fixed on the region. Not a day passed without some international coverage of the North Korean nuclear crisis.

 

In the midst of such concerns, Kim Il Sung convened a meeting of all his military officers above the rank of commanding general. One general who was in the room later explained what happened next. Kim posed to his generals the following question: "The American scoundrels are about to start a war against us. Will we be able to defeat them?"

 

The generals replied without hesitation: "Yes, we can win!" "When have we ever lost a war?" "We shall win every battle!" "How can we ever lose when we have you, Commander of Steel, our Great Leader, to lead us?" "Oh, Great Leader! Just give us the order!" "In a single breath we will rush to the South, drive out the American imperialists, and unify the fatherland!"

 

Despite such vigorous displays of bravado, Kim Il Sung did not appear satisfied. "That's all very well," he replied. "But what if we lose? What shall we do if we lose?"

 

Kim Il Sung's prodding was unexpected. The moment that their Great Leader uttered the word "lose," the generals' lips closed and remained tightly shut. As they sat still in extreme anxiety, the 51-year-old Kim Jong Il suddenly stood up. Raising his clenched fists, Kim yelled out, "Great Leader! I will be sure to destroy the Earth! What good is this Earth without North Korea?"

 

Kim Il Sung looked at his eldest son and smiled.

 

"That is surely the answer. I am pleased to see that a new North Korean general has been born at this very gathering. Henceforth, I transfer to you the operational command of the North Korean military."

Edited December 20, 2011 by Malcador

[Tigranes]

I wonder if all those poor malnourished North Koreans would call it that.

 

Of course. But it's not like we can invade and get it all over with right away - as far as we know that would be a very risky maneuvre. I certainly wouldn't advocate artificially keeping the KJU regime alive to postpone its collapse, but a quick implosion will have problems of its own.

[mkreku]

http://kimjongildroppingthebass.tumblr.com/

[Calax]

I would assume that if the kid is controllable the people who are actually in power will keep him as a figurehead to the public, rather than attempt to kill him. I mean he's publicly taken his fathers position so killing him with a bullet in his head isn't really an option. However making it seem like his dead dad beat him with a candlestick or something would do well I think (Say the glorious leader did it from beyond the grave).

 

Either way, it seems like the guy in charge is a manga freak/gamer.

[Walsingham]

Thanks for Tigs taking the trouble to give his analysis. Seems pretty convincing to me.

 

I'm violently hungover, but I'd suggest that NK has made a living by playing unpredictable and dangerous. This young chap being in charge merely makes that picture more credible. He's got relatives in important positions, probably pulling his strings. He's going to be around for years yet. So I'd reckon that the generals are pretty pleased with him.

[Giantevilhead]

If the government does collapse, most people are probably going to flee to China rather than South Korea. There's already a lot of smuggling and human trafficking between the two countries. It'll be much easier to cross the border into China since China basically has nothing but a couple of small towns there, some of which rely quite heavily on illegal trade with North Korea.

Edited December 21, 2011 by Giantevilhead

[Nepenthe]

Thanks for Tigs taking the trouble to give his analysis. Seems pretty convincing to me.

Mmh. And for the record, it was a joke.

[Walsingham]

Thanks for Tigs taking the trouble to give his analysis. Seems pretty convincing to me.

Mmh. And for the record, it was a joke.

 

I'm confused.

[Nepenthe]

Thanks for Tigs taking the trouble to give his analysis. Seems pretty convincing to me.

Mmh. And for the record, it was a joke.

 

I'm confused.

Oh, that's all right then. I've met my targets for the day. Bedtime.

 

(I was talking about my off-hand comment that was met with extensive analysis.)

[Tigranes]

If the government does collapse, most people are probably going to flee to China rather than South Korea. There's already a lot of smuggling and human trafficking between the two countries. It'll be much easier to cross the border into China since China basically has nothing but a couple of small towns there, some of which rely quite heavily on illegal trade with North Korea.

 

Possibly - China is definitely easier to cross into right now, but if you asked North Koreans where would you want to LIVE, I'm guessing most will say South Korea over China. A lot of NKers currently cross to China *then* to SK, or alternatively, want to do so but are stuck in China.

 

What happens when they do get to SK is a different question - we're now seeing a fair bit of secondary migration where NKers defect to SK, realize it's not all wonderful for them there, then move again to, say, Southeast Asia.

[Calax]

Would the NK's maybe flee through China to Russia? I know that Russia is trying to deal with a lower population.

[Tigranes]

They could, I suppose, but if you were a North Korean, why exactly would want you to move to Russia? East Russia, no less?

 

China near the NK border is a bit different because that area (Manchuria, etc) was once very briefly held by Korea and has generally seen a lot of traffic, and a whole sub-ethnicity of integrated Koreans. Southeast Asia presents a good combination of lower living costs, working opportunities, and people that won't refuse to hire you just because you are North Korean. Russia... I don't know what appeal Russia would have, except for a few that may speak Russian, etc.

 

What would be interesting is if Russia began to court North Koreans post-collapse with support schemes or whatnot, but I'm still not sure if that will lead to huge migrations - who knows.

[Bos_hybrid]

They could, I suppose, but if you were a North Korean, why exactly would want you to move to Russia? East Russia, no less?

 

Russian women.

[Calax]

And not as many men. Russia/China, if they play their cards PERFECTLY, could theoretically annex NK, or at least make it a puppet.