Korea

[Volourn]

"You do realise that North Korea has the fourth largest army in the world?"

 

Irrelevant. Going by numbers, Iraq had more soldiers than the US did during the war.. it didn't help them when the majority of said soldiers promptly surrendered. The same would happen with NK soliders. Outside of the elite trained loyally brainwashed, the run of the mill common foot soldier will likely choose to not fight.

 

 

Nepenthe wrote: "QUOTE (Junai @ Nov 25 2010, 06:08 PM)

QUOTE (Volourn @ Nov 24 2010, 01:40 PM)

Nobody said change was easy.

It's amazing how patient americans are when it comes to change in Iraq, as opposed to Obama's change in America..

 

J."

 

"

 

It's amazing how you talk about what Amerikans tthink and do when you are talking to a Kanadian.

Edited November 26, 2010 by Volourn

[Gorth]

While I can understand that some countries don't usually have problems with these kind of things, eventually someone will have to take humanitarian responsibility for all the displaced and starving people.

Who?

[Rostere]

Nobody wants a war with North Korea. Keeping in mind they can barely support their current population as it is, a war will cause the worst refugee disaster we've seen since WW2. I don't think anyone is afraid of the North Korean army crossing their borders, however noone would like the entire population of NK starving and flooding over their borders.

 

While I can understand that some countries don't usually have problems with these kind of things, eventually someone will have to take humanitarian responsibility for all the displaced and starving people.

 

You do realise that North Korea has the fourth largest army in the world? It's not a question of just walking in there and taking control of the place, but refraining from it due to a potential humanitary crisis. Hell, the reason they are in that shape is because it's not a country, it's a support structure for a massive army.

 

I very much doubt the morale and equipment of the NK army. When foreign aid is cut off due to a war, NK won't have enough resources to feed their country, probably not even their army.

 

While I can understand that some countries don't usually have problems with these kind of things, eventually someone will have to take humanitarian responsibility for all the displaced and starving people.

Who?

 

 

Are you asking who don't usually take care of refugees, or who eventually will take care of the North Korean refugees in case of a war?

[Humodour]

North Korea's army is useless. Apparently only 1/10 of them have real guns - the rest are wooden replicas.

 

You can't compare armies without also comparing defence expenditure per soldier head and other things. And when your soldiers don't have real guns you can bet the expenditure is low.

[Humodour]

While I can understand that some countries don't usually have problems with these kind of things, eventually someone will have to take humanitarian responsibility for all the displaced and starving people.

Who?

 

Well Australia will shoulder some of the burden as we always have. And xenophobic racist elements will complain about it as they always have. And they'll be overruled by commonsense as they always have been.

 

I swear to God that Junai has been on this board about as long as I have and that he hasn't read a single solitary word I've written.

 

He probably puts people who disagree with his conspiracy theories on ignore.

Edited November 26, 2010 by Krezack

[Nepenthe]

It's an army!? I thougth it's a huge circus or something, which does parades and stuff!

 

Edit: Oh, and occasionally behaves badly at the border.

 

... It's millions of people with guns.

[Tigranes]

Do we seriously believe that it's a good idea for SK or US to believe the assumption 9/10 of NK army has wooden guns when negotiating this situation? Seriously?

 

There is substantial evidence that the NK army has a paralysingly rigid organisational structure, and of course depending on how it goes there will be tons of defectors / deserters, but if I had to make any guess I'd say that the resistance would be much fiercer and much more lethal than anything faced during the intiial invasion of Iraq.

[Humodour]

Do we seriously believe that it's a good idea for SK or US to believe the assumption 9/10 of NK army has wooden guns when negotiating this situation? Seriously?

 

There is substantial evidence that the NK army has a paralysingly rigid organisational structure, and of course depending on how it goes there will be tons of defectors / deserters, but if I had to make any guess I'd say that the resistance would be much fiercer and much more lethal than anything faced during the intiial invasion of Iraq.

 

I'm sure they're mind-numbingly loyal and happy to die for Dear Leader, but they'll still basically be using spears against tanks.

[Moose]

Bows and arrows against the lightning.

[Walsingham]

In terms of NK projecting force across into South Korea I would suggest something a little more nuanced than the 'Hordes of Iraq' analogy.

 

- NK artilllery reaches a far way into SK. This would deliver a punishing series of blows for at least some time into the war. With an impact on SK response by damaging infrastructure and prompting a mass egress of refugees.

- Air wise SK would dominate, no question. However, air dominance might not be enoughto deliver a crushing superiority to the vital land battle

- On land NK has the edge in terms of mass and mentality on the offensive. this is due to the terrain being vastly more complex and compact than that of the Arab wars. Rugged mountains and built up areas.

- Command and control is unlikely to be a problem when advancing into a corridor, on objectives which have been planned for for over fifty years. Not to mention the likelihood that they would be using buried landlines for a lot of comms.

- I don't know enough about naval warfare to make an assessment.

 

~~

 

Having said that I don't believe NK is about to go spang bucknuts. All they need to do is keep acting up and threatening craziness and we'll keep giving them free aid. Yay!

[Rostere]

Do we seriously believe that it's a good idea for SK or US to believe the assumption 9/10 of NK army has wooden guns when negotiating this situation? Seriously?

 

There is substantial evidence that the NK army has a paralysingly rigid organisational structure, and of course depending on how it goes there will be tons of defectors / deserters, but if I had to make any guess I'd say that the resistance would be much fiercer and much more lethal than anything faced during the intiial invasion of Iraq.

 

Yes, I believe that is a good assumption. However, I am not arguing anyone should start a war, because of other consequences that might have.

 

Also, a war-time NK without foreign aid would starve itself to collapse almost immediately. Solely from a military perspective, they don't stand a chance. However, if you have even the vaguest of humanitarian concerns, a war is unthinkable.

[Monte Carlo]

In terms of NK projecting force across into South Korea I would suggest something a little more nuanced than the 'Hordes of Iraq' analogy.

 

- NK artilllery reaches a far way into SK. This would deliver a punishing series of blows for at least some time into the war. With an impact on SK response by damaging infrastructure and prompting a mass egress of refugees.

- Air wise SK would dominate, no question. However, air dominance might not be enoughto deliver a crushing superiority to the vital land battle

- On land NK has the edge in terms of mass and mentality on the offensive. this is due to the terrain being vastly more complex and compact than that of the Arab wars. Rugged mountains and built up areas.

- Command and control is unlikely to be a problem when advancing into a corridor, on objectives which have been planned for for over fifty years. Not to mention the likelihood that they would be using buried landlines for a lot of comms.

- I don't know enough about naval warfare to make an assessment.

 

Ironically you could cream NK if you launched a pre-emptive attack. I would imagine the US Navy has enough air assets to take out most NK arty in situ. Sadly, we are now wusses in the West and will await the NK to attack first.

[Walsingham]

In terms of NK projecting force across into South Korea I would suggest something a little more nuanced than the 'Hordes of Iraq' analogy.

 

- NK artilllery reaches a far way into SK. This would deliver a punishing series of blows for at least some time into the war. With an impact on SK response by damaging infrastructure and prompting a mass egress of refugees.

- Air wise SK would dominate, no question. However, air dominance might not be enoughto deliver a crushing superiority to the vital land battle

- On land NK has the edge in terms of mass and mentality on the offensive. this is due to the terrain being vastly more complex and compact than that of the Arab wars. Rugged mountains and built up areas.

- Command and control is unlikely to be a problem when advancing into a corridor, on objectives which have been planned for for over fifty years. Not to mention the likelihood that they would be using buried landlines for a lot of comms.

- I don't know enough about naval warfare to make an assessment.

 

Ironically you could cream NK if you launched a pre-emptive attack. I would imagine the US Navy has enough air assets to take out most NK arty in situ. Sadly, we are now wusses in the West and will await the NK to attack first.

 

That is indeed the lesson arising. Hit all those static heavy positions with our neat specialist devices en masse, and NK's conventional weapons threat would be set back a decade. Unfortunately, because they are nuke armed (probably) you'd have to be sure you could hit the nukes too.

 

So instead we essentially bribe them to carry on being a holes. Not that I'm averse to the humanitarian argument. But seriously, when do the poor sods actually living in NK get to escape?

[mkreku]

Ironically you could cream NK if you launched a pre-emptive attack. I would imagine the US Navy has enough air assets to take out most NK arty in situ. Sadly, we are now wusses in the West and will await the NK to attack first.

I predict that you will one day do something illegal so I am fining you now. Because I am manly and not a wuss.

[Orogun01]

Ironically you could cream NK if you launched a pre-emptive attack. I would imagine the US Navy has enough air assets to take out most NK arty in situ. Sadly, we are now wusses in the West and will await the NK to attack first.

The USS Maine battleship, Pearl Harbor, the World Trade center; history proves that we have been wusses for a long time

Edited November 26, 2010 by Orogun01

[Monte Carlo]

Ironically you could cream NK if you launched a pre-emptive attack. I would imagine the US Navy has enough air assets to take out most NK arty in situ. Sadly, we are now wusses in the West and will await the NK to attack first.

I predict that you will one day do something illegal so I am fining you now. Because I am manly and not a wuss.

 

Half-wit. They fired artillery at South Korea a couple of days ago.

[Malcador]

I had no idea RoK's military was the size it was, not that much smaller than the DPRK's, well if you include reserves.

[Monte Carlo]

I remember digging trenches in Westphalia in 1988 as part of NATO exercises simulating a SOVIET INVAYSHUN!

 

LOL. Can't wait to tell the kids about that one.

 

Anyway, we had lovingly crafted ORBATS of the enemy disposition showing legions of Russki death-dealers. Our AT platoons were told chilling stories about the reactive armour capabilty of the T-80 and the squadrons of attack helis driven by commie robots that would hand us our asses if doomsday ever came.

 

Guess what?

 

It was a medieval conscript army running on about half-a-dozen working radios, drinking anti-freeze, selling their kit because they hadn't been paid for six months. They were a freaking shambles.

 

North Korea's army, I am inclined to believe, will be little different. Drop some instant sunshine on them and find out.

[kingofsquid]

Why is it outside the mental capacities of NK to negotiate a reasonable solution? These days common sense is rarer than capable presidents. THESE MEANS YOU Barack Hussein Obama!!! and bush.

[Hildegard]

"You do realise that North Korea has the fourth largest army in the world?"

 

Irrelevant. Going by numbers, Iraq had more soldiers than the US did during the war.. it didn't help them when the majority of said soldiers promptly surrendered. The same would happen with NK soliders. Outside of the elite trained loyally brainwashed, the run of the mill common foot soldier will likely choose to not fight.

 

Volourn you can't take into consideration just the similar numbers and then make the comparison that the outcome in NK in case of a war would be the same like in Iraq. During the First Gulf War Saddam made a mistake of thinking he could wage war against the US and its allies in the open and flat terrain of southern Iraq and Kuwait, his ego got in a way of facts and he lost. The Iraqi military never got over that defeat and in 2003 the main reason of a swift American capture of Bagdad and the rest of Iraq wasn't in the might of the US Airforce or the Army. It was due to the the low morale of the Iraqi soldiers, no political backbone or support for the regime at the time except in some Sunni areas which in fact showed most resistance, and no or little support from the population to stand up to the invaders. In NK things are much more different then people tend to believe.

 

 

Do we seriously believe that it's a good idea for SK or US to believe the assumption 9/10 of NK army has wooden guns when negotiating this situation? Seriously?

 

There is substantial evidence that the NK army has a paralysingly rigid organisational structure, and of course depending on how it goes there will be tons of defectors / deserters, but if I had to make any guess I'd say that the resistance would be much fiercer and much more lethal than anything faced during the intiial invasion of Iraq.

 

US and SK aren't taking assumptions like most people here saying 9 out of 10 of their rifles are wooden and things like that. Most people here and in public draw their information more from their wishful thinking and media that support their way of thinking rather then facts. And the truth is it's hard to get real and correct intelligence on detailed facts about the condition and the capabilities of the NK military. The official position of the US military is that they know all of NK's secrets but in reality it's evident this isn't the case. Sure the US uses U-2, RC-135 and other spy planes from the Ohsan airbase in SK and in addition has dozens of spy satellites hovering over NK. But in spite of that I remember that a former US ambassador said, who is also a 30 year CIA veteran named Donald Gregg said, and I qoute: the US intelligence on North Korea has been the longest lasting story of failure in the annals of US intelligence. Donald Rumsfeld said also that NK is using underground fibers for communication and that is almost impossible to get actual agents in NK.

 

So the NK military is somewhat shielded to US spy efforts, but you can get some general perspective on NK's military. Before that one must try to understand their society. They are totally isolated for more then 50 years, their population can hardly know what is beyond their borders, they are bombarded by their regime on almost every subject from the day they are born, most of the people there do not have the same perception on what is right and wrong opposite to those like let's say people in the west have. To them the US is the enemy, not only in the regime but amongst the people themselves, and when you look NK and their society which is like no other in the world, it comes as no surprise.

 

To those who think NK's military is in total disarray and absolutely no match for the US forces just like Saddam in 2003 let's just look at common logic. The country is poor, population doesn't even have enough food as they should, why? Where are all the resources going? They aren't going to the ice-cream production. They are going to the military, which is the center of NK state/society. Because of NK's isolation and long term sanctions NK developed their own military production for a very long time now and many of their weapons and equipment does come from their domestic production, also a number of those weapons are in fact copies of Chinese and Russian weapons which they use as a platform. Domestic weapons production is the main reason why NK manages to maintain such a large military while their budget is very much limited compared to other countries. But you can't compare those 'dollar' numbers as a criteria for measuring their military power because it's not the same economic or any other structure for comparison.

 

NK military industry is consisted in three groups: weapon production, production of military supplies, and military-civilian dual-use product manufacturing. NK has: 17 plants for guns/artillery, 35 plants for ammunition, 5 plants for tanks and APC, 8 plants for airplanes, 5 plants for warships, 3 plants for missiles, 5 plants for communication equipment and 8 plants for biochemical weapons (as they have the third largest stockpile of the same). To all of that, many of the plants that make consumer production are designed so they can be easily modified for weapons production. Most of these plants are built underground in the rugged mountainous region of the Jagang-do province and several hydro-power plants exist there as well so it would be a challenging task to cut off power to those facilities.

 

 

Also you should consider the fact that although SK considers NK their main enemy, it's not the other way around. NK doesn't see SK as its main enemy but as a host to the US, they're main enemy. And NK war plan isn't one for invading SK but destroying all the US presence around Korea and that part of Asia.

 

Many people here laugh at NK's military, sure they aren't a high-tech military, but they're no joke at all. They are organized into several independent, totally integrated and self-sufficient fighting units and I believe NK soldiers are motivated and loyal to their leadership and any war scenario will be interpreted as a US invasion on them. When people speak about low morale of their soldiers why did then, in September 1996 when a North Korean submarine got stranded at in SK and its crew abandoned the ship and got on land, eleven of the crew committed suicide and the rest fought to the last man except one who was captured. Two men among them fought off an army of South Korean troops and remained at large for 50 days, during which they killed 11 of the pursuers. In June 1998, another submarine got caught in fishing nets in SK waters and its crew killed themselves. Why didn't they just go to the McDonalds instead?

 

 

When it comes to numbers NK's military is divided into regular army which is for offensive actions and its militias which are used for homeland defense. NKs regular army consists of 4 corps in the front area, 8 corps in the rear area, one tank corps, 5 armored corps, 2 artillery corps, and 1 corps for the defense of Pyongyang, for an example SK has 19 infantry divisions whereas North Korea has 80 divisions and brigades. NK's militias consist of 1.6 million self-defense units, 100,000 people's guards, 3.9 million workers militia, 900,000 youth guard units. and those militias are fully armed and undergo military trainings regularly. They aren't something you would usually imagine when militias are in question, like most things about NK. Also it's a known fact that NK began to build fortifications in the 1960s. All of their key military facilities are built underground to withstand US bunker-buster bombs like the GBU 28 and the BKU-113. NK has 8,236 underground facilities that are linked by 547 km of tunnels. Beneath Pyongyang are a huge underground stadium and other facilities. The figures are that about 1.2 million tons of food, 1.46 million tons of fuel, and 1.67 million tons of ammunition are stored in underground storage areas for wartime use. Most of the underground facilities are drilled into granite rocks and the entrances face north in order to avoid direct hits by American bombs and missiles. What I'm trying to picture here is that NK since the 1953 to this very day has mounted most of their energy and resources preparing for war like it's going to be tomorrow.

 

Not the mention the DMZ, the most mined place in the world and probably the most defended one on each side and it would be a bitch to cross it with a major force for NK or SK.

 

 

Ironically you could cream NK if you launched a pre-emptive attack. I would imagine the US Navy has enough air assets to take out most NK arty in situ. Sadly, we are now wusses in the West and will await the NK to attack first.

 

 

No can do. NK has some 18 000 heavy guns, I believe 2000 or something are artillery pieces, the 170mm Goksan gun and 240mm multiple-tube rocket launcher. These guns have a range as far south as Suwon which is miles beyond Seoul and most of them are hidden in caves. Many of them are mounted on rails and can fire in all directions. They have the capability to rain 500 000 shells per hour on US troops near the DMZ, not just Seoul. The US army bases at Yijong-bu, Paju, Yon-chun, Munsan, Ding-gu-chun, and Pochun could be obliterated in a matter of hours. Their numbers and position make it virtually impossible to mount such a large scale air offensive to wipe them all out. Not a chance. Even Gen. Thomas A Schwartz, a former US army commander in Korea, stated and I quote: the US army in Korea would be destroyed in less than three hours.

 

I'm not implying here that the US has no chance against an eventual NK attack nor do I think otherwise that the US could handle NK like they did Saddam two times. What I'm trying to say that an all out war with NK would be something US hadn't experienced in a long long time. You won't be waging war against somebody in a open flat terrain with clear and undisputed air superiority, you won't be waging war against an army with low morale and ill equipped, you'll be waging war against fanatics who have been preparing for war with you for the last 57 years. I personally hope there won't be a war, because it would mean large scale civilian casualties, likely use of WMD, not to mention a possible scenario of this war going out of proportion and spreading to other countries. This war would bring only misery and death, and no good to anyone.

Edited November 26, 2010 by Hildegard

[Volourn]

"In NK things are much more different then people tend to believe."

 

You don't know what I may believe about NK army since I haven't really talked about it. The point I wa smaking is that the actual size of an army is nearly irrelevant nowadays. This ain't the 1500s. Or heck, it's not even the Amerikan Revolution Era where the British cried about the 'lack of hnour' of their Amerikan foes because they didn't stand in ptretty rows to be mowed down by the 'superior army'.

 

I'm sure NK's elite soliders might very well be well trained, and capable. But the common foot soldier? The nobodies? The ones treated like crap? I seriously doubt they'll hesitate to surrender the moment they realize that things are going bad.

 

 

"They are going to the military,"

 

They are going to the military elite. HUGE difference. NK may have millions of soldiers but I bet a small fraction of those get any worthwhile training and are treated well. NK simply doesn't have the finances to support such a huge army in the same manner other countries do. Even the 'common soldier' in the US army is treated reasonably well with state of the art equipment.. nad, when they aren't, the complaints are loud enough to make the changes needed.

 

 

" most of the people there do not have the same perception on what is right and wrong opposite to those like let's say people in the west have. To them the US is the enemy, not only in the regime but amongst the people themselves, and when you look NK and their society which is like no other in the world, it comes as no surprise."

 

Man. The NK gov't propaganda really brainwashed you. If you think the common NK civilian has time to worry about the US enough to hate on them you are delusional. They're more worried about starving.

 

The fact there are constant tales of NK fleeing the country says their hatred of the outside world is just not true. There's a reason why NK makes it illegal for the typical NKean to travel says everything I need to.

 

 

 

A country's military strength is fueled by the population. If the population is poor, trust me, the typical part of the army is also going to be poor.

 

 

"you won't be waging war against an army with low morale and ill equipped, you'll be waging war against fanatics who have been preparing for war with you for the last 57 years. I personally hope there won't be a war, because it would mean large scale civilian casualties, likely use of WMD, not to mention a possible scenario of this war going out of proportion and spreading to other countries. This war would bring only misery and death, and no good to anyone."

 

Totally brainwashed by NK propaganda.

[Zoraptor]

I hope you copy and pasted that Hildegard because the kind of people who inherently Believe in instanto-magic simultaneous 100% effective bombing and that the enemy are armed with wooden guns are about as likely to be convinced as people who Believe the world is flat. Not to mention perfectly willing to double down on their Beliefs with the currency of someone else's lives.

 

Sheesh, the NK military is a joke which apparently manages to sink a modern, specialist, ASW warship in the most heavily monitored waterway in the world. That's a hell of a punchline- like that gif in Mr M. War's signature.

Edited November 26, 2010 by Zoraptor

[Volourn]

If NK's army was as powerful as you NK propagandists would ahve us to believe, they'd have already conquered SK . Afterall, the US and others are no match for them right? RIGHT? So, why can't NK just take over the world sicne they are so unstoppable? Huh?

 

I mean, having the ability to sink one modern sub, and lob some bombs is just amazing proof of one's military dominace. I guess.

[Hildegard]

I didn't say that numbers are the critical factor to win in a battle or a war. The regular soldier is a pawn and will use its purpose in the NK military and I don't see the reason why would they immediately surrender in difficult situations as I pointed out totally different examples.

 

And of course having a strict hierarchy structure that most resources go to the ones above as they have priorities and that doesn't have to undermine the capabilities of the ones below that structure in terms of readiness and will to fight. And there is malnutrition in NK, especially in the rural areas, but the talk of starving has been hyped in the media to the point like everyone in NK is eating one potato a week. They have a society where everything is about their leader, the military and the regime. Of course in such an environment there are those who want change and risk trying to escape. But nevertheless I'm confident their military backbone has a far higher morale then any other opponents the US military faced since the Vietnam war.

 

But heck, what do I know, I'm totally brainwashed by the NK propaganda. The usual 'Volourn communication' for you.

[Tigranes]

A few things to balance, though:

 

So the NK military is somewhat shielded to US spy efforts, but you can get some general perspective on NK's military. Before that one must try to understand their society. They are totally isolated for more then 50 years, their population can hardly know what is beyond their borders, they are bombarded by their regime on almost every subject from the day they are born, most of the people there do not have the same perception on what is right and wrong opposite to those like let's say people in the west have. To them the US is the enemy, not only in the regime but amongst the people themselves, and when you look NK and their society which is like no other in the world, it comes as no surprise.

 

Maybe in Kim Il-Sung's day, but many NK researchers now believe that there is a good likelihood, as time passes, this is more and more becoming an act of its own - a degree of genuine patriotism mixed with a degree of pragmatic performativity. In short, I don't think we can run with the assumption 90% of the population are sheep that would die for Kim Jong-Il even if there was another option, anymore. But neither that 90% are just waiting for a chance to escape - Volo I don't know which facts you are groudning your beliefs on here, but I'd like to know. The interesting thing about NK defectors is that yes there are many who come and say God NK is borked and Kim Jong Il is a bastard, but also a lot of people who come and say I came because I was starving and our country is in a hard way, but I still believe in / love Kim Jong Il, and I wish I could go back if things worked out (partly because they get treated like subhuman trash in SK, of course...)

 

Anyway, this black-and-white wooden guns nonsense aside, everything suggests that in most instances of wartime scenarios, NK would be able to cause significant damage at least to SK and possibly some to China/japan. That is pretty undeniable.