With this holiday's game lineup...

[Anarchosyn]

Dragon Age is the only major RPG coming out that will be vying with Alpha Protocol's user base.

 

Risen, Venetica and Divine Divinity 2 - all German based RPGs slated for release on the Xbox 360 in 2009 - claim to be RPGs but they aren't really in the same league (for better or worse) with Obsidian/Bioware products. They'll all probably be very buggy as well (Risen is from the Gothic people, Venetica looks pretty cool and Divine Divinity 2 is a "monty haul" title like Diablo).

[alanschu]

Which is why even a relatively unknown game like Red Faction: Guerrilla managed to exceed expectations and keep people talking about it for a whole month.

 

 

I'm a bit hesitant to ascribe a causal link here.

 

What precisely were the expectations for the game?

[Anarchosyn]

Which is why even a relatively unknown game like Red Faction: Guerrilla managed to exceed expectations and keep people talking about it for a whole month.

 

 

I'm a bit hesitant to ascribe a causal link here.

 

What precisely were the expectations for the game?

 

His point, if I'm understanding it correctly, was that the dry spell acted as a lens to focus people's attentions on a game that might have otherwise been relatively ignored.

 

Truth be told, this title did kind of come out of nowhere and many posters on my primary forum (team xbox forums) gave voice to the fact their interest was motivated in part by the lack of other options (Prototype and a PS3 exclusive were the only other big titles dropping around that time period). I personally didn't have it on my radar at all and ultimately ended up purchasing it for a quick sandbox fix.

 

On the other hand, making casual relationships can be tricky and it should also be known that Volition released a demo that was relatively well received by the community as well.

[alanschu]

His point, if I'm understanding it correctly, was that the dry spell acted as a lens to focus people's attentions on a game that might have otherwise been relatively ignored.

 

I'm well aware of his point thanks.

 

Anecdotes are nice and lend some credibility; I just don't blindly agree with a supposition because some people claim it's true. It could be, and it logically makes sense, but at the same time, surely these "dry spots" have existed in the past, and other games have done better than expected because of them.

 

Which leads to the question, why are there dry spots in game releases?

[Nepenthe]

Which leads to the question, why are there dry spots in game releases?

 

Because the publishers' release scheduling over-emphasises holiday sales at the expense of targeting periods of low competition. I doubt that all games would benefit from being released at a slow spell, but I'd say those that have some amount of franchise recognition (I remember hearing of the original Red Faction and a sequel at some point) and/or get super good reviews in the middle of one of these dry spells would. While a 'slow month' might not get you more buyers, a 'crowded holiday period' is pretty sure to cut into the amount of buyers who might otherwise consider it.

[alanschu]

I wonder why the publishers don't agree though.

 

If publishing during a "dry" spot was that conducive to limiting competition to maximize sales, wouldn't more publishers do it?

[Nepenthe]

I wonder why the publishers don't agree though.

 

If publishing during a "dry" spot was that conducive to limiting competition to maximize sales, wouldn't more publishers do it?

 

Never underestimate the power of surgical removal of common sense during MBA studies.

[Purkake]

Oh snap, you made me miss NOLF2 and I don't own this game anymore Cate Archer is like one of the best video game heroines next to Lara Croft and Jill Valentine.

 

Lara Croft?

 

You forgot April Ryan

 

Which is why even a relatively unknown game like Red Faction: Guerrilla managed to exceed expectations and keep people talking about it for a whole month.

 

 

I'm a bit hesitant to ascribe a causal link here.

 

What precisely were the expectations for the game?

 

THQ, the publisher was "pleased" with the sales, what I said before was that it exceeded some analysts' expectations.

 

I wonder why the publishers don't agree though.

 

If publishing during a "dry" spot was that conducive to limiting competition to maximize sales, wouldn't more publishers do it?

 

EA actually said that releasing everything during the holiday was a bad idea. I can't find the quote, but here's a Dead Space producer complaining about bad release timing.

 

They are actually doing it this year, but from the looks of it, they are just piling all the holiday releases into Q1 2010.

[alanschu]

It makes sense that releasing everything during the holiday is a bad idea. Especially since you'll get competition with yourself in the process.

 

The Dead Space guy was more talking about a general malaise of a perfect storm due to bad economy, as well as some high profile games to go up against.

 

 

Looks like, according to Metacritic, Red Faction also has the added bonus of being a solid game (rated 85 according to the G4TV article). I won't discount that the lack of competition won't hurt a title like Red Faction, but I'm probably more willing to give the developers kudos for making a game that people want, and that critics approve of, for sales. The one analyst predicted that Prototype would overshadow it. It wasn't like Red Faction went up against absolutely nothing (I mean hey, even I have heard of Prototype!).

 

According to the analyst, looks like initial sales are poor, but maybe because of the metacritic rating (and a lack of other titles ), it'll have some good legs.

[Purkake]

Prototype was pretty much garbage, though, and the fun wore thin really quick. The buzz reflected that and the game sold or didn't sell on it's own merits.

 

There's plenty of room for 3 high profile games in a month, but ~10 is starting to stretch it, especially when two of them are best selling franchises that people still actively play online.

 

Red Faction had it's share of problems and was far from perfect, but it made up for it by being really fun. If it had been crap, the sales would have been considerably lower. My point was that there was time for the buzz to build up for Red Faction, because the next awesome thing was pretty far away. It had the chance to stand out, show off what it can do and rank up sales, without some huge franchise like Halo breathing down it's neck.

Edited September 3, 2009 by Purkake

[HoonDing]

Wouldn't most console "kiddies" be more likely to pick this game up than Dragon Age? As soon as they read that Dragon Age isn't like God of War or Devil May Cry, they might completely give the game a pass.

[Purkake]

Wouldn't most console "kiddies" be more likely to pick this game up than Dragon Age? As soon as they read that Dragon Age isn't like God of War or Devil May Cry, they might completely give the game a pass.

 

Dragon Age has EA's marketing and Bioware's("From the makers of Mass Effect") name on it. It's going to sell, but it will probably disappoint a huge number of people expecting a Mass Effect with swords.

Edited September 3, 2009 by Purkake

[Nepenthe]

Wouldn't most console "kiddies" be more likely to pick this game up than Dragon Age? As soon as they read that Dragon Age isn't like God of War or Devil May Cry, they might completely give the game a pass.

 

Dragon Age has EA's marketing and Bioware's("From the makers of Mass Effect") name on it. It's going to sell, but it will probably disappoint a huge number of people expecting a Mass Effect with swords.

 

Call me a pessimist, but I think that game is going to disappoint a huge number of people, period. There's a lot of funky stuff going on with the console versions we impoverished BG(2) fans are freaking out about.

[Purkake]

Sure, but since I'm no Sith, I don't deal in absolutes

[WILL THE ALMIGHTY]

Sure, but since I'm no Sith, I don't deal in absolutes

+1 geek skill

 

AP has been in development for a long time now, another year/half a year would just be a pain.

[Zoraptor]

Dragon Age has EA's marketing and Bioware's("From the makers of Mass Effect") name on it. It's going to sell, but it will probably disappoint a huge number of people expecting a Mass Effect with swords.

Fun fact: Mass Effect didn't actually sell all that well. ~2 million sales on 360, less than either Baldur's Gate, less than KOTOR, a lot less than NWN. A lot better than JE. Take as accepted that for various reasons the sales numbers aren't directly comparable as a measure of profitability.

 

I'd imagine Obsidian would be disappointed if AP performed to RF: Guerrilla levels, frankly. K2 sold near to 2 million copies, and NWN2 (from memory) a fair bit more.

[Purkake]

Mass Effect created enough buzz to make Bioware a relevant RPG developer in the eyes of the mainstream gamers.

 

I'd be surprised if AP sold over 1 million any time soon.

[uzivatel]

Fun fact: Mass Effect didn't actually sell all that well. ~2 million sales on 360, less than either Baldur's Gate, less than KOTOR, a lot less than NWN. A lot better than JE. Take as accepted that for various reasons the sales numbers aren't directly comparable as a measure of profitability.

Fun fact: According to the numbers BioWare website, its pretty close - BG1 - 2 million copies, BG2 - 2 million copies, NWN + expansions - close to 3 million copies, KotOR - 3 million copies on Xbox and PC.

[Fearless_Jedi]

I feel bad. I just saw a video of Splinter Cell Conviction and I was drooling on my keyboard. My biggest issues with AP was the lack of disarms...after watching the SC:C video Im now seriously thinking about buying that game instead and maybe just renting AP. SC:C just has a much better CQC system....u can disarm baddies....

 

Seems best if AP releases on schedule cause come 2010, SC:C may very well blow it away.

[Cl_Flushentityhero]

Yeah, Conviction will be pretty sweet. AP has the flexible storyline, character creation, and dialogue system, but Conviction will probably deliver on the sneaking and shooting and beating dudes up.

[kreese12]

My biggest issues with AP was the lack of disarms...

 

I'm surprised this bothers you that much. From what I understand, you can engage anyone in hand-to-hand mode, and they can't shoot you in this mode. So that's sort of the same deal as disarming them, isn't it?

 

I'm also assuming that with the right skills you can stealth up to someone and silently kill them. Between these two features, it sort of fulfills the needs of a disarm feature.

 

As for me, Splinter Cell Conviction looks pretty cool, but I'm not into stealth gameplay at all. So AP is tops for me.

[Zoraptor]

Fun fact: According to the numbers BioWare website, its pretty close - BG1 - 2 million copies, BG2 - 2 million copies, NWN + expansions - close to 3 million copies, KotOR - 3 million copies on Xbox and PC.

To clarify: I'm not saying Mass Effect sold poorly in an absolute sense- 2 million is only failure if you're something like GTA- just that it was hardly as much of an OMG blockbuster!!!11! title as is often implied. It is however probably Bioware's second poorest selling RPG (depending a bit on definitions- going by sku ME360 probably beats the separated xbox/pc figures of kotor; if you add in MEPC it probably beats both bg vanillas but not with xps counted, etc) ahead of only Jade Empire.

[Syraxis]

Judging by how much sega has marketed AP at this point (i.e. bare minimum by the looks of it,) I picture one of the following three scenarios:

 

-AP selling about average number of units for a new IP (250,000 - 750,000 units from release to December 24.)

 

-Follows the fate of Psychonauts and becomes critically acclaimed but a financial failure.

 

-A 'sleeper hit'.

 

Thoughts anyone?

Edited September 4, 2009 by Syraxis

[Bos_hybrid]

Call me a pessimist, but I think that game is going to disappoint a huge number of people, period. There's a lot of funky stuff going on with the console versions we impoverished BG(2) fans are freaking out about.

 

Most 360/PS3 players, have never heard of BG. As for the console version of DA:O, that's what happens when a game is made for PC first, consoles second.

 

-AP selling about average number of units for a new IP (250,000 - 750,000 units from release to December 24.)

 

-Follows the fate of Psychonauts and becomes critically acclaimed but a financial failure.

 

-A 'sleeper hit'.

 

AP will sell a mil easy, it's on three platforms. One of which is starved for RPGs. Unless of course it's recieved badly by the press, even then Kane & Lynch still did well.

 

To clarify: I'm not saying Mass Effect sold poorly in an absolute sense- 2 million is only failure if you're something like GTA- just that it was hardly as much of an OMG blockbuster!!!11! title as is often implied. It is however probably Bioware's second poorest selling RPG (depending a bit on definitions- going by sku ME360 probably beats the separated xbox/pc figures of kotor; if you add in MEPC it probably beats both bg vanillas but not with xps counted, etc) ahead of only Jade Empire.

 

None of them hit 2 mil so quickly. Companies like their new games to sell quickly at full price. Not over ten years at reduced prices.

 

Fable 2 is considerd a big success at 2.6 mil, as is AC at 2.2.(360). If AP reaches 2 mil on one platform, it will be a blockbuster. Also as a fun note, Grand Theft Auto IV sold 2.6mil on the PS3, MG4 3 mil. Halo/Sims/WoW are not a measuring sticks, they are anomalies.

[Nepenthe]

Call me a pessimist, but I think that game is going to disappoint a huge number of people, period. There's a lot of funky stuff going on with the console versions we impoverished BG(2) fans are freaking out about.

 

Most 360/PS3 players, have never heard of BG. As for the console version of DA:O, that's what happens when a game is made for PC first, consoles second.

 

I think you're underestimating the amount of BG fans who find themselves without a computer able to run (even) DAO. In the larger context, I have no doubt you are right - but I think those are the people the Marilyn Manson ads are directed at.