US Presidential Elections

[Blarghagh]

Useful post, then, Walsingham.

 

Something I'm noticing about the current US Presidential Elections is that nearly all the media attention right now is Hillary vs. Obama.

 

It's like nobody even cares who the Republicans put forth. I'm not even sure who won the Republican preliminaries (it was McCain right?).

[Walsingham]

Useful post, then, Walsingham.

 

Well, I didn't want to be rude.

[Meshugger]

As it looks like the Democratic nomination will be decided here in Denver ( as it may be too close to call ), I will wager you a $100 Visa card that ( no matter what ) Hillary will be the nominated candidate for the Dems. Decision to be arbitared here by the members of this forum. I will send you the account numbers and ex date of the card I purchase to support my claim.

I think your $100 is safe Tarna. As I've stated before, Hillary is a machine politician. She is the safe choice, the known quantity. The party hacks that make up the superdelegates WANT to vote for her. They want a reason to vote for her. If she wins in Pennsylvania (as seems likely) she will have swept all the big populous states. She can not catch Obama in pledged delegates but she is close enough that her wins in Florida and Michigan would have made the difference and the majority of the supers will use that as the pretext for voting for her. A fresh face like Obama riding a populist groundswell scares the machine democrats half to death. I agree, the convention will be where the nomination fight ends and it will be ugly. And Hillary will come out on top.

 

Sadly, i think you're right.

[WilliamHey]

wll certainly, Hillary or Obama, thats my matter...

[Enoch]

As it looks like the Democratic nomination will be decided here in Denver ( as it may be too close to call ), I will wager you a $100 Visa card that ( no matter what ) Hillary will be the nominated candidate for the Dems. Decision to be arbitared here by the members of this forum. I will send you the account numbers and ex date of the card I purchase to support my claim.

I think your $100 is safe Tarna. As I've stated before, Hillary is a machine politician. She is the safe choice, the known quantity. The party hacks that make up the superdelegates WANT to vote for her. They want a reason to vote for her. If she wins in Pennsylvania (as seems likely) she will have swept all the big populous states. She can not catch Obama in pledged delegates but she is close enough that her wins in Florida and Michigan would have made the difference and the majority of the supers will use that as the pretext for voting for her. A fresh face like Obama riding a populist groundswell scares the machine democrats half to death. I agree, the convention will be where the nomination fight ends and it will be ugly. And Hillary will come out on top.

Wishful thinking. The superdelegates are not as dumb as you hope they are. If the bulk of the superdelegates want to vote for Hillary, why haven't they pledged their support to her yet? Most of these "party hacks" want to vote for the person who is going to win in November. Yeah, she has won the bigger states-- so what? The delegates available in each state are weighted by population, and Obama is leading in the delegate count and the overall popular vote. Florida and Michigan would be relevant if the campaigns had done any actual campaigning there (Obama wasn't even on the ballot in MI), and if the voters had gone to the polls thinking that their vote would matter. But it was announced well beforehand that the delegates wouldn't be seated, so the campaigns didn't show up and the resultant turnout was not particularly representative of the overall opinions of Democrats in those states.

 

Pissing off Obama's "populist groundswell" is the Democrats' best chance to blow an election that the GOP really has no business winning. The convention bigwigs know this.

[Guard Dog]

Oh man did I call this one right of what? I'm telling you this Florida Michigan thing is going to matter. If Hillary wins every primary she is expected to of the ones remaining and the supers continue to break in the same pattern as they have so far the delegates from FL and MI will be needed to form the majority. If it comes to that Clinton wins. The states will not pay for a revote since their election was lawful, and apperently the Dems wont either. If the rules comittee of the dem party tries to disallow those delegates and nominate without the 2021 majority Clinton will sue and this gets settled in court. You know how much Americans love lawyers and lawsuits? Not one little bit

 

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/sen.-bill...2008-03-06.html

 

Enoch, I really believe the majority of the super delegates are scared to death of Obama. They are afraid to support him and afraid not to.That is why so few have openly comitted to him. They were equally afraid to comit to Clinton because the elections were going against her. But if she gives them a viable out I really think they will vote for her by a fair margin. I may be wrong on this but I don't think so.

[taks]

It's like nobody even cares who the Republicans put forth. I'm not even sure who won the Republican preliminaries (it was McCain right?).

because once mccain took a lead, he never had to look back. hillary v. obama is simply more press-worthy because it's a dead heat down the stretch. nobody knows what the outcome will be with that one, but mccain is already done, so there's nothing really to report on. overall, he's not a very controversial candidate, either, at least, not from a media standpoint. during the last election, however, there was a hard fought battle between bush and mccain which did get a lot of press.

 

taks

[Enoch]

Oh man did I call this one right of what? I'm telling you this Florida Michigan thing is going to matter. If Hillary wins every primary she is expected to of the ones remaining and the supers continue to break in the same pattern as they have so far the delegates from FL and MI will be needed to form the majority. If it comes to that Clinton wins. The states will not pay for a revote since their election was lawful, and apperently the Dems wont either. If the rules comittee of the dem party tries to disallow those delegates and nominate without the 2021 majority Clinton will sue and this gets settled in court. You know how much Americans love lawyers and lawsuits? Not one little bit

 

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/sen.-bill...2008-03-06.html

Consider the source. The headline should've been "Home-state Senator says everything is going to go to hell if the DNC doesn't do exactly what he wants." The FL and MI Party organizations were warned what would happen if they moved their primary dates up. They did it anyway, and now they want the national party to bail them out for their mistake?! I wouldn't have a problem seating the delegates based on the first elections if those elections had been conducted like all the other elections out there. But they weren't-- the campaigns ignored the states and the voters didn't turn out like they would have had it mattered.

 

I'll refer you to Jonathan Alter's take on Hillary's chances. Even if there's a re-do in FL and MI, she's still a huge longshot.

 

EDIT: And there is absolutely zero grounds for any kind of lawsuit based on the seating/non-seating of delegates. Courts are exceedingly deferential to political parties in deciding their internal rules. Even if Hillary's people are brazen enough to take the party to court (which would never happen), the case would be dismissed quite swiftly.

 

Enoch, I really believe the majority of the super delegates are scared to death of Obama. They are afraid to support him and afraid not to.That is why so few have openly comitted to him. They were equally afraid to comit to Clinton because the elections were going against her. But if she gives them a viable out I really think they will vote for her by a fair margin. I may be wrong on this but I don't think so.

We disagree. More than anything, they want a Democrat in the White House. (Most of them haven't committed to anyone yet because they want to be on the side that wins.) And they're shrewd enough politicians to know that nominating a candidate who got less than a plurality of both the delegate count and popular vote is an excellent way to doom that effort.

Edited March 6, 2008 by Enoch

[Enoch]

One other thing: picture the reaction in the black community if Barack Obama walks into the convention with the lead in both counted delegates and popular vote, but doesn't get the nomination. There's no way that the superdelegates open that particular can of worms.

Edited March 6, 2008 by Enoch

[walkerguy]

CNN Election Center Results (3/6/08 4:30 pm US/EST)

GET YOUR POLL RESULTS BELOW!

CNN 2008 Election Center

 

Delegate Definitions TOTAL DELEGATES

Democrats

Edited March 6, 2008 by walkerguy

[walkerguy]

CNN Election Center Results (3/12/08 4:30 pm US/EST)

GET YOUR POLL RESULTS BELOW!

CNN 2008 Election Center

 

Delegate Definitions TOTAL DELEGATES

Democrats

Edited March 12, 2008 by walkerguy

[SteveThaiBinh]

Next primary is in Pennsylvania, over a month away.

Jolly good, I could do with a rest from it. I do admire many aspects of the US electoral process (primaries in particular) but not its length.

[Azarkon]

Oh Hillary. How good you are at killing your party's chances at the presidency.

 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/030...ps_Hillary.html

[Deadly_Nightshade]

Yeah, she's hurting everyone with stuff like that - Billary should simply drop out and admit defeat.

[Gorgon]

Lots of polls available, but where is the only one that really matters: Democrat or Republican.

 

Given that the Republican ticket is decided, and that the policy difference between Obama and Clinton is negliable.

[Walsingham]

Interesting little film:

 

http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2008/03/g...illa-filmm.html

 

I don't pretend this isn't a highly biased selling of the anti-Fox message, but Fox probably do need a kick in the pants. I know that if any of the comments highlighted would provoke a storm if aired on the BBC.

[Meshugger]

I am not suprised, if Hillary somehow fails to do her dirty work right, just wait for what will happen this summer and fall. The gloves will come completely off the anti-Obama machinery.

[Nick_i_am]

This is why I feel bad every time I watch the Simpsons.

[Walsingham]

This is why I feel bad every time I watch the Simpsons.

 

Aren't they also a prime source of anti-Fox propaganda?

[Nick_i_am]

Yeah, but i'm still indirectly funding them every time I do.

[walkerguy]

Off-topic (technically)

 

 

Holiday Inn Express announced Wednesday that it would support Sand for president 2008. Sand will reiceve free acess to presidential suites at any Holiday Inn. Since everyone's favorite hotel has supported Sand, he has jumped in the polls.

 

All Candidates - Wednesday Poll

 

Hillary - 12%

Obama - 9%

McCain - 9%

Sand - 70%

 

Vote SAND for President 2008 !!!

Vote SAND for President 2008 !!!

[walkerguy]

CNN Election Center Results (3/21/08 12:00 pm US/EST)

GET YOUR POLL RESULTS BELOW!

CNN 2008 Election Center

 

Delegate Definitions TOTAL DELEGATES

Democrats

Edited March 21, 2008 by walkerguy

[Walsingham]

I'm bored of teh primaries now. I want to see the main event. Let's start throwing popcorn.

[Pop]

[SteveThaiBinh]

They should hold all the primaries etc. over the summer, the conventions in September, then 6 weeks of campaigning and the vote in November. Spreading it out over a year (or eighteen months, it seems like with this one) is just painful.