The All Things Political Topic - Nothing strengthens authority so much as silence

[Gromnir]

apologies for the double

https://www.instagram.com/stopicenet/reel/DI5r8cRRtv4/

americans might be surprised to learn the feds likely don't need an arrest warrant for these kinda situations. am suspecting one reason why the guy in the vid is being detained at a courthouse is to avoid needing to have to deal with judges and warrants. arrest at home? yeah, then you need a warrant. it often makes sense to get an arrest warrant when you are arresting sans non exigent circumstances, but you do not necessarily need such. 

but why the plain clothes? why the refusal to show badges? why the balaclava ski mask? and no offense to mr. man-bun in the video, but am having met a whole lotta cops over the years and these guys don't seem like cops-- attitude is wrong and behavior is... weird. these "cops" seem far too anxious to be police with any kinda experience. am knowing it sounds ridiculous, but our thought on watching the vid were, "is homeland security deputizing rando office personnel?"

and again, why the refusal to show badges? even if you secret squirrel your way into explaining the plain clothes, then why don't they display badges when making their arrest? and the ski mask? serious? 

everything about the arrest just looks wrong and am seeing so much potential for accident.

HA! Good Fun!

ps am certain almost nobody will watch, but...

in the linked vid, trump is talking to a room full o' financial experts about the economy and inflation. almost every time trump said something outrageously stoopid, the people in the audience cheered/applauded. am gonna suggest that everybody in that audience who applauded knew trump were either lying or stoopid... or both, but they cheered anyway.  those folks in the audience wanted a 2025 extension o' the previous trump tax cuts and they wanted more deregulation, so they not only ignored trump lies/stoopid, but they cheered. as such, is hardly a surprise politicians can get away with distorting economic realities.

late edit to avoid double

and

 

Edited yesterday at 03:26 AM by Gromnir

[rjshae]

Well, on the positive side, inflation from tariffs is presumably a one-time thing, unless orangeman decides to keep increasing them. The bigger problem for the economy is the level of instability displayed by his decision-making process. It's the type of behavior that creates problems for businesses trying to budget for the next financial year. I'd expect that businesses will become more cautious and conservative, stock-piling against future tariffs, avoiding risky investments, and limiting new hires. Growth will slow, jobs will be harder to find, and the economy will slump. Combine that will a loss of government jobs and a reduction in research. I don't see a formula for positive growth.

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/business/stockpiling-ahead-tariffs-likely-hurt-us-economy-first-quarter-2025-04-30/

Biden's fault 

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/stockpiling-ahead-tariffs-likely-hurt-us-economy-first-quarter-2025-04-30/

Biden's fault 

I'm surprised he didn't try to blame it on Obama...

 

For a little comedic relief (still a serious subject, mind you). How voting works in Australia

 

[rjshae]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/stockpiling-ahead-tariffs-likely-hurt-us-economy-first-quarter-2025-04-30/

Biden's fault 

It's the three envelopes joke in real life...

[Malcador]

6 hours ago, Gorth said:

I'm surprised he didn't try to blame it on Obama...

 

For a little comedic relief (still a serious subject, mind you). How voting works in Australia

 

Dig at Canada is worth it there. Would be nice if we had proportional.

[HoonDing]

 

[Lexx]

This is not pornhub. Please stop posting blowjob videos.

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, HoonDing said:

 

Even too much for Ann  

 

[BruceVC]

@Gorth

 

Are still living in Denmark? If so will this be long-term ?

[Gorth]

10 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

@Gorth

 

Are still living in Denmark? If so will this be long-term ?

I'm still in Denmark and probably will be until the end of the year. The plan is then to return to Queensland (with some new skills, experience and certifications to add to my CV)

 

[Gromnir]

the only two people in the trump administration who am certain is pro tariff is trump and peter navarro. 

of particular note, watch from ~53 sec to 1:23. navarro explains how the .3% contraction of the gdp is good news 'cause but for tariffs, we woulda' seen 3% growth.

...

so, trump tells us he can't be blamed for bad gdp numbers 'cause is still biden's economy, but his personal tariff whisperer then goes out and explains that but for tariffs, the economy were doing supercalifragilistic? and that's good news?

the tariffs were a man-made disaster... a man-made disaster attributable to one person, but the trump folks messaging is so undisciplined that they is sometimes telling the truth by accident. the thing is, on fox news and elsewhere, navarro, lutnick, bessent and trump messages is being massaged 'til they fit a useful maga narrative.

oh, and for the folks who is still convinced doge is anything other than a scam so that elon musk can get his hands on more data to bolster his ai aspirations, trump 2.0 has spent more than biden did in his first 100 days. am knowing many has already memory hole'd 2021, but just a reminder, we were still dealing with a global pandemic at the time. so much for cutting enough waste, fraud and abuse to cover the proposed new tax cuts for the rich, eh? 

Despite Trump's promised cuts, U.S. spent more than $200 billion more in first 100 days than last year

DOGE's website claims the task force has already saved that much, at $160 billion, between canceling grants, contracts and leases and making cuts to the federal workforce. On its "wall of receipts" site online, the office reports the largest reductions so far come from the Department of Health and Human Services, General Services Administration, Department of Education, Department of Labor and Office of Personnel Management.

Only about $60 billion, or less than 40%, of that alleged savings are itemized on the office's online "wall of receipts" and even those itemizations have included errors and lax documentation.

In his work at the American Enterprise Institute, Malkus said his review indicates the savings is more likely to be around $80 billion.

...

and btw, since we weren't around to pontificate on the matter, cutting legislative and executive branch programs because they is woke or dei is not addressing fraud, waste and abuse. pay two different organizations to do same thing is wasteful. pay an organization $10 million to deliver widgets but only get $10 thousand in widgets, with the rest o' the money being pocketed by organization administrators is likely fraudulent. but those aren't the kinda things doge cuts.

maybe you thinks funding sesame street for middle eastern broadcast is stoopid. and perhaps you feel that saving malnourished kids in the sudan, or supplying south african expectant mothers with aids medicines is bad policy, but cutting those programs ain't necessarily addressing fraud, waste or abuse. those is policy choices and Congressmen, when they pass budgets, can stop funding o' such programs if they want to do so. some o' these programs is executive branch exclusive, and the President don't need to supply a reason to cut 'em, but describing as the elimination o' waste, fraud and abuse is misleading at best if what is actual happening is that elon and trump is getting rid of programs they don't like, even if those programs is being run efficient and effective.

if some lib ne'er-do-well were getting rich off o' plumpynut, and the kids in the sudan were not actual receiving the lifesaving nutritional supplement, that would be an example o' addressing waste, fraud or abuse. 

if narcan didn't actual do anything, if it were somekinda snake oil, then we would cheer doge narcan cuts. 

...

with two exceptions, we gotta give trump 2.0 credit, 'cause the project 2025 folks and other did an impressive job o' wargaming this sh!te out.

example: going after law firms in the way trump 2.0 has done so shocked us 'cause it didn't even need to be successful to have the desired effect. the mergers and acquisitions folks at these firms made a calculated decision to cave to trump demands particular after they saw that other firms not targeted by trump were trying to peel off clients from targeted firms.  many o' the firms gave up w/o a fight even though they knew they would win in a fight in large part 'cause most o' their business were actual related to government contracts. if you is a multimillion or billion dollar client who has an sec issue you need handled, why would you stick with a firm trump had effectively declared persona non grata? so even if trump keeps losing in court, he has effective reduced the pool of potential lawyers willing to take on cases, which makes future trump loses less likely. who do you think is representing the undocumented immigrants in most o' the fed cases? you might be surprised to learn just how much o' pro bono work the big firms do, and the big washington and new york firms trump targeted is known for taking on a noteworthy proportion o' immigration cases as part o' their pro bono portfolios.

another example: cecot. f*&%^. honest, am conceding a complete failure o' imagination insofar as the deal trump brokered with el salvador... and looks like rwanda might be the next el salvador. yeah, we assumed that the fed would play habeas corpus shenanigans by moving potential deportees asap to the most friendly court districts imaginable, but again, we saw deportation as the goal. we actually thought the alien enemies act would be invoked day 1, and we were surprised by the absence o' initial executive orders making use o' the alien enemies act. we so did not foresee that instead o' deporting those aurora colorado gang members who had taken over the city, trump would send 'em to prisons controlled by friendly governments as a way to avoid due process. just 'cause we loathe what trump is doing to undocumented immigrants don't mean we need ignore how ruthlessly clever were some o' the planning which went into stuff such as cecot.

am bringing up the almost reptilian cunning o' the trump folks in implementing their schemes 'cause doge were a noteworthy exception. in truth, we sees two HUGE exceptions: doge and tariffs.

am assuming doge were mostly an elon musk pet project, and so it weren't part o' the pre inauguration project 2025 planning. shouldn't be a surprise doge were implemented in the same haphazard manner musk used when he took over and fixed/broke twitter.

tariffs were, am guessing, something most o' project 2025 were hopeful clearer heads could convince trump to embrace reason, as happened when trump wanted to tariff mexico during his first term.

we posted in 2019

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/447374-trump-plans-to-declare-new-national-emergency-to-impose-tariffs/

a couple days later, trump had already caved.

not that it matters at this point, but am not sure why trump keeps conflating tariffs and trade deficits, but he sees those two things as inextricable linked. beyond reason he believes that the US is getting screwed by any nation with whom we have a trade deficit, and he only sees a trade deficit on goods as relevant, complete ignoring services. point is, am thinking there were no real plan for widespread tariffs on any and all nations with whom we has a goods trade deficit, as well as those penguins, 'cause the wargaming for such tariffs were predictable.

see, brought it back to tariffs. am trying to do the trump weave.

HA! Good Fun!

ps we noted the charlie fox o' doge and tariffs, but we did skip trump's top appointees. when kash patel, tulsi, rfk jr., pete hegseth and pam bondi got their positions in trump 2.0, we were outraged that those folks were partisan to a comical degree, with conflicts of interest and character flaws which woulda' torpedoed any past administration's efforts to have 'em gain senate approval. in retrospect, perhaps we should be relieved, 'cause one o' the few obstacles to project 2025 successful implementation is the incompetence o' trump's top loyalists. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Gromnir

[Gromnir]

complete separate issue

trump appointed judge says we aren't being invaded by tren de aragua

36 pp ain't that long, but am admitting am not an expert on the case law, so is gonna take time for us to review-- cases is from ~1800 or ww2 and even when we were representing gang members for a living, the alien enemies act were not considered relevant. 

recommended:

steve vladek's blsky

and

https://www.justsecurity.org/

will likely have useful input before we do.

HA! Good Fun!

ps the decision from the texas federal court applies only to venezuelan detainees in the southern district of texas. extreme limited and easy for the fed to ignore from a practical perspective.

 

 

Edited 3 hours ago by Gromnir