The All Things Political Topic - Nothing strengthens authority so much as silence

[Gromnir]

apologies for the double

https://www.instagram.com/stopicenet/reel/DI5r8cRRtv4/

americans might be surprised to learn the feds likely don't need an arrest warrant for these kinda situations. am suspecting one reason why the guy in the vid is being detained at a courthouse is to avoid needing to have to deal with judges and warrants. arrest at home? yeah, then you need a warrant. it often makes sense to get an arrest warrant when you are arresting sans non exigent circumstances, but you do not necessarily need such. 

but why the plain clothes? why the refusal to show badges? why the balaclava ski mask? and no offense to mr. man-bun in the video, but am having met a whole lotta cops over the years and these guys don't seem like cops-- attitude is wrong and behavior is... weird. these "cops" seem far too anxious to be police with any kinda experience. am knowing it sounds ridiculous, but our thought on watching the vid were, "is homeland security deputizing rando office personnel?"

and again, why the refusal to show badges? even if you secret squirrel your way into explaining the plain clothes, then why don't they display badges when making their arrest? and the ski mask? serious? 

everything about the arrest just looks wrong and am seeing so much potential for accident.

HA! Good Fun!

ps am certain almost nobody will watch, but...

in the linked vid, trump is talking to a room full o' financial experts about the economy and inflation. almost every time trump said something outrageously stoopid, the people in the audience cheered/applauded. am gonna suggest that everybody in that audience who applauded knew trump were either lying or stoopid... or both, but they cheered anyway.  those folks in the audience wanted a 2025 extension o' the previous trump tax cuts and they wanted more deregulation, so they not only ignored trump lies/stoopid, but they cheered. as such, is hardly a surprise politicians can get away with distorting economic realities.

late edit to avoid double

and

 

Edited Wednesday at 03:26 AM by Gromnir

[rjshae]

Well, on the positive side, inflation from tariffs is presumably a one-time thing, unless orangeman decides to keep increasing them. The bigger problem for the economy is the level of instability displayed by his decision-making process. It's the type of behavior that creates problems for businesses trying to budget for the next financial year. I'd expect that businesses will become more cautious and conservative, stock-piling against future tariffs, avoiding risky investments, and limiting new hires. Growth will slow, jobs will be harder to find, and the economy will slump. Combine that will a loss of government jobs and a reduction in research. I don't see a formula for positive growth.

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/business/stockpiling-ahead-tariffs-likely-hurt-us-economy-first-quarter-2025-04-30/

Biden's fault 

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/stockpiling-ahead-tariffs-likely-hurt-us-economy-first-quarter-2025-04-30/

Biden's fault 

I'm surprised he didn't try to blame it on Obama...

 

For a little comedic relief (still a serious subject, mind you). How voting works in Australia

 

[rjshae]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/stockpiling-ahead-tariffs-likely-hurt-us-economy-first-quarter-2025-04-30/

Biden's fault 

It's the three envelopes joke in real life...

[Malcador]

6 hours ago, Gorth said:

I'm surprised he didn't try to blame it on Obama...

 

For a little comedic relief (still a serious subject, mind you). How voting works in Australia

 

Dig at Canada is worth it there. Would be nice if we had proportional.

[HoonDing]

 

[Lexx]

This is not pornhub. Please stop posting blowjob videos.

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, HoonDing said:

 

Even too much for Ann  

 

[BruceVC]

@Gorth

 

Are still living in Denmark? If so will this be long-term ?

[Gorth]

10 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

@Gorth

 

Are still living in Denmark? If so will this be long-term ?

I'm still in Denmark and probably will be until the end of the year. The plan is then to return to Queensland (with some new skills, experience and certifications to add to my CV)

 

[Gromnir]

the only two people in the trump administration who am certain is pro tariff is trump and peter navarro. 

of particular note, watch from ~53 sec to 1:23. navarro explains how the .3% contraction of the gdp is good news 'cause but for tariffs, we woulda' seen 3% growth.

...

so, trump tells us he can't be blamed for bad gdp numbers 'cause is still biden's economy, but his personal tariff whisperer then goes out and explains that but for tariffs, the economy were doing supercalifragilistic? and that's good news?

the tariffs were a man-made disaster... a man-made disaster attributable to one person, but the trump folks messaging is so undisciplined that they is sometimes telling the truth by accident. the thing is, on fox news and elsewhere, navarro, lutnick, bessent and trump messages is being massaged 'til they fit a useful maga narrative.

oh, and for the folks who is still convinced doge is anything other than a scam so that elon musk can get his hands on more data to bolster his ai aspirations, trump 2.0 has spent more than biden did in his first 100 days. am knowing many has already memory hole'd 2021, but just a reminder, we were still dealing with a global pandemic at the time. so much for cutting enough waste, fraud and abuse to cover the proposed new tax cuts for the rich, eh? 

Despite Trump's promised cuts, U.S. spent more than $200 billion more in first 100 days than last year

DOGE's website claims the task force has already saved that much, at $160 billion, between canceling grants, contracts and leases and making cuts to the federal workforce. On its "wall of receipts" site online, the office reports the largest reductions so far come from the Department of Health and Human Services, General Services Administration, Department of Education, Department of Labor and Office of Personnel Management.

Only about $60 billion, or less than 40%, of that alleged savings are itemized on the office's online "wall of receipts" and even those itemizations have included errors and lax documentation.

In his work at the American Enterprise Institute, Malkus said his review indicates the savings is more likely to be around $80 billion.

...

and btw, since we weren't around to pontificate on the matter, cutting legislative and executive branch programs because they is woke or dei is not addressing fraud, waste and abuse. pay two different organizations to do same thing is wasteful. pay an organization $10 million to deliver widgets but only get $10 thousand in widgets, with the rest o' the money being pocketed by organization administrators is likely fraudulent. but those aren't the kinda things doge cuts.

maybe you thinks funding sesame street for middle eastern broadcast is stoopid. and perhaps you feel that saving malnourished kids in the sudan, or supplying south african expectant mothers with aids medicines is bad policy, but cutting those programs ain't necessarily addressing fraud, waste or abuse. those is policy choices and Congressmen, when they pass budgets, can stop funding o' such programs if they want to do so. some o' these programs is executive branch exclusive, and the President don't need to supply a reason to cut 'em, but describing as the elimination o' waste, fraud and abuse is misleading at best if what is actual happening is that elon and trump is getting rid of programs they don't like, even if those programs is being run efficient and effective.

if some lib ne'er-do-well were getting rich off o' plumpynut, and the kids in the sudan were not actual receiving the lifesaving nutritional supplement, that would be an example o' addressing waste, fraud or abuse. 

if narcan didn't actual do anything, if it were somekinda snake oil, then we would cheer doge narcan cuts. 

...

with two exceptions, we gotta give trump 2.0 credit, 'cause the project 2025 folks and other did an impressive job o' wargaming this sh!te out.

example: going after law firms in the way trump 2.0 has done so shocked us 'cause it didn't even need to be successful to have the desired effect. the mergers and acquisitions folks at these firms made a calculated decision to cave to trump demands particular after they saw that other firms not targeted by trump were trying to peel off clients from targeted firms.  many o' the firms gave up w/o a fight even though they knew they would win in a fight in large part 'cause most o' their business were actual related to government contracts. if you is a multimillion or billion dollar client who has an sec issue you need handled, why would you stick with a firm trump had effectively declared persona non grata? so even if trump keeps losing in court, he has effective reduced the pool of potential lawyers willing to take on cases, which makes future trump loses less likely. who do you think is representing the undocumented immigrants in most o' the fed cases? you might be surprised to learn just how much o' pro bono work the big firms do, and the big washington and new york firms trump targeted is known for taking on a noteworthy proportion o' immigration cases as part o' their pro bono portfolios.

another example: cecot. f*&%^. honest, am conceding a complete failure o' imagination insofar as the deal trump brokered with el salvador... and looks like rwanda might be the next el salvador. yeah, we assumed that the fed would play habeas corpus shenanigans by moving potential deportees asap to the most friendly court districts imaginable, but again, we saw deportation as the goal. we actually thought the alien enemies act would be invoked day 1, and we were surprised by the absence o' initial executive orders making use o' the alien enemies act. we so did not foresee that instead o' deporting those aurora colorado gang members who had taken over the city, trump would send 'em to prisons controlled by friendly governments as a way to avoid due process. just 'cause we loathe what trump is doing to undocumented immigrants don't mean we need ignore how ruthlessly clever were some o' the planning which went into stuff such as cecot.

am bringing up the almost reptilian cunning o' the trump folks in implementing their schemes 'cause doge were a noteworthy exception. in truth, we sees two HUGE exceptions: doge and tariffs.

am assuming doge were mostly an elon musk pet project, and so it weren't part o' the pre inauguration project 2025 planning. shouldn't be a surprise doge were implemented in the same haphazard manner musk used when he took over and fixed/broke twitter.

tariffs were, am guessing, something most o' project 2025 were hopeful clearer heads could convince trump to embrace reason, as happened when trump wanted to tariff mexico during his first term.

we posted in 2019

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/447374-trump-plans-to-declare-new-national-emergency-to-impose-tariffs/

a couple days later, trump had already caved.

not that it matters at this point, but am not sure why trump keeps conflating tariffs and trade deficits, but he sees those two things as inextricable linked. beyond reason he believes that the US is getting screwed by any nation with whom we have a trade deficit, and he only sees a trade deficit on goods as relevant, complete ignoring services. point is, am thinking there were no real plan for widespread tariffs on any and all nations with whom we has a goods trade deficit, as well as those penguins, 'cause the wargaming for such tariffs were predictable.

see, brought it back to tariffs. am trying to do the trump weave.

HA! Good Fun!

ps we noted the charlie fox o' doge and tariffs, but we did skip trump's top appointees. when kash patel, tulsi, rfk jr., pete hegseth and pam bondi got their positions in trump 2.0, we were outraged that those folks were partisan to a comical degree, with conflicts of interest and character flaws which woulda' torpedoed any past administration's efforts to have 'em gain senate approval. in retrospect, perhaps we should be relieved, 'cause one o' the few obstacles to project 2025 successful implementation is the incompetence o' trump's top loyalists. 

Edited Thursday at 09:10 PM by Gromnir

[Gromnir]

complete separate issue

trump appointed judge says we aren't being invaded by tren de aragua

36 pp ain't that long, but am admitting am not an expert on the case law, so is gonna take time for us to review-- cases is from ~1800 or ww2 and even when we were representing gang members for a living, the alien enemies act were not considered relevant. 

recommended:

steve vladek's blsky

and

https://www.justsecurity.org/

will likely have useful input before we do.

HA! Good Fun!

ps the decision from the texas federal court applies only to venezuelan detainees in the southern district of texas. extreme limited and easy for the fed to ignore from a practical perspective.

 

 

Edited Thursday at 08:38 PM by Gromnir

[Gromnir]

HA! Good Fun!

[uuuhhii]

south asia are posturing for war

maybe it is time to bring back that stupid doomsday clock they have during cold war

[rjshae]

1 hour ago, uuuhhii said:

south asia are posturing for war

maybe it is time to bring back that stupid doomsday clock they have during cold war

The doomsday clock never went away.

It is now 89 seconds to midnight

[Bartimaeus]

1 hour ago, uuuhhii said:

south asia are posturing for war

maybe it is time to bring back that stupid doomsday clock they have during cold war

It's never stopped running since 1947. It is currently set to 89 seconds to midnight, the closest it's ever been - though with the recognition that it is slow to update, and certain near-catastrophes such as the Cuban Missile Crisis and the 1983 Soviet nuclear attack false alarm were never represented on the clock (the former because it started and ended before the clock would be updated, the latter because it was unknown to everyone except a small number of Soviets exactly how close we were to nuclear armageddon - both of those events would seem to warrant being 1 second until midnight-level events). It should mainly be seen as an interesting talking point, not really a definitive declaration on the current day-to-day state of the world: if nuclear war was ever to imminently break out, the Doomsday Clock would likely be too slow to appropriately react and provide warning before it did.

e: Ninja-ed!

Edited Saturday at 01:55 PM by Bartimaeus

[Malcador]

And the Maiden song seemed worried about 120. 

AfD marked an extremist group, Americans whining about it for some reason 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4vz9jed5lo

 

 

[Gromnir]

On 5/1/2025 at 1:25 PM, Gromnir said:

complete separate issue

trump appointed judge says we aren't being invaded by tren de aragua

 

 

having now read the case a few times, am less optimistic. from the start, we assumed if this reached scotus, the political question doctrine might be the sticking point. as some might be aware, the US President don't have Constitutional power to declare war. Congress declares war. Congress has granted the President the capacity to respond quickly to emergency situations, including invasions... and tariffs, but that is a different issue... sorta. the point is that Congress is the Constitutional authority on war. if there is a question as to whether or not we are functional at war with tren de aragua, Congress likely gets the final say-so as 'posed to the Court, though paradoxical, the Court gets the final say-so on whether Congress in this case gets final say-so... which probable seems a bit confusing. 

there is two functional ways for trump to get around what looks on its face to be a smackdown from a trump appointed district judge in texas:

1) the Court demurs. 

scotus may simple says that whether or not the US is at war with tren de aragua is a political question not suitable for judicial review. Congress has options to declare that trump is exceeding his authority and it is up to that branch o' government to exercise their Constitutional authority, if they wish to do so. silence by Congress would functional = acquiescence. if scotus says the issue is a political question and not a legal one, then trump wins.

2) trump follows the sneaky advice of the district court.

the district court appeared to criticize trump, but it also told him how to cure the defect in his invocation o' the AEA. 

...

lie to me

such were the practical advice o' the judge. the judge observed that the executive needed to provide legal sufficient facts supporting AEA invocation, but that in his capacity he could not challenge the veracity of trump's provided facts. as such, trump needs to provide facts which support the claim that tren de aragua is a foreign invader (e.g. describe forces on the ground in aurora or wherever, directed by a foreign power to undermine the US national government,) but the judge will not question the validity o' such facts provided. the court will assume the facts provided is true and decide if such provided facts is legal sufficient to justify the use of the AEA.

trump lies = trump wins.

another example o' being beat to death with the three wise monkeys?

with any other administration one might assume it would be political impossible to get away with outright fabrication o' lies made in Court which claim a gang, at the behest o' a foreign power, is murdering US citizens and holding american soil as part o' a plan to undermine the national sovereignty o' the United States of America. now go ahead and convince self that such would be a bridge too far for trump. we dare you.

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Zoraptor]

The second anglophone election since Trump's 2nd inauguration has gone much the same as the first- previously unexpected swing towards the incumbent left (well, 'left'). Though Australia's Albanese never had the horrific polling of Canada's Trudeau he managed to increase Labor's vote share and it looks like a 2:1 landslide, with the opposition leader losing his seat same as Canada.

Extremely funny given how many people on the right thought Trump winning would usher in similar governments elsewhere.

[uuuhhii]

like brexiter believe eu would be dismantled after brexit

sadly hope of canada and australia doesn't waste this opportunity to fix itself like eu did are low

though there are finally some movement in eu as germany finally start to handle the ridiculous afd problem

[Lexx]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

And the Maiden song seemed worried about 120. 

AfD marked an extremist group, Americans whining about it for some reason 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4vz9jed5lo

It doesn't really mean much yet, but it could help in banning the party at some point down the line.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

And the Maiden song seemed worried about 120. 

AfD marked an extremist group, Americans whining about it for some reason 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4vz9jed5lo

 

 

I know calling these pricks hypocrites is useless but anyone in the Trump regime whining about governments restricting speech deserves nothing less than public scorn for the rest of their lives.

[Guard Dog]

I have found politics bothers me so much less now that I ignore it completely. 

[Gromnir]

3 hours ago, Guard Dog said:

I have found politics bothers me so much less now that I ignore it completely. 

am sooper happy you finally found your zen after a decade o' hyperbolic efforts to convince us they is all equal bad.

*shrug*

even so, am indeed hopeful you are doing well/better.

edit:  a quick clarification on jav v. trump-- scotus use o' the political question doctrine to avoid ruling against trump would be weak, cowardly and bad law. trifecta. however, weak, cowardly and bad law is what were the immunity ruling. am also recognizing J. Roberts may feel the need to go to extremes in his efforts to avoid a Constitutional crisis.  we mentioned the political question option for scotus not 'cause am thinking it is a good legal argument but 'cause am recognizing the political question doctrine does provide the Court with a minimally plausible basis for deciding in favor of trump. 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited yesterday at 03:43 AM by Gromnir