US Presidential Elections - 2024 edition

[ShadySands]

I voted but it's not really a question on which way my state is going to go. 

[Bartimaeus]

Another right-wing terrorist assassination attempt on Trump... Showed up armed to his rally in California, didn't get very far before being arrested. They might hate Trump, but they're still deranged morons, I suppose.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

22 minutes ago, Bartimaeus said:

Another right-wing terrorist assassination attempt on Trump... Showed up armed to his rally in California, didn't get very far before being arrested. They might hate Trump, but they're still deranged morons, I suppose.

I think it's funny that Republicans spent years cultivating (accidental or purposeful is up in the air, probably both) a group of deranged lunatics who want to spray bullets into crowds for unhinged reasons (in addition to the cops I mean) and now that it's finally happening to their crowds instead of schools or grocery stores people have become so used to mass shootings it doesn't really register more than a shrug. Reap the whirlwind.

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Bartimaeus said:

Another right-wing terrorist assassination attempt on Trump... Showed up armed to his rally in California, didn't get very far before being arrested. They might hate Trump, but they're still deranged morons, I suppose.

Antifa needs to train their operatives better

[Gorth]

When you turn spreading lies, fear and hatred into your livelihood... not really a surprise?

[rjshae]

It's unclear that it was an assassination attempt. Just a guy exercising his 2nd amendment rights, perhaps.

[Chairchucker]

Probably just out walking his shotgun.

[Lexx]

Maybe he wanted to shoot just regular people and not Trump. It's america after all.

[Chairchucker]

Maybe he got lost on the way to the local school.

[BruceVC]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

Some early voting in around  mail-in and early voting

Dems are ahead overall but the swing states that matter are mixed with GOP ahead in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada and the Dems ahead in Wisconsin , North Carolina (barely )Michigan and Pennsylvania 

 

And this will change but its an interesting first glance 

 

[Gorth]

Good thing Australia has a very strict immigration policy... just in case the US completely crashes, burns and falls apart at the seams

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Gorth said:

Good thing Australia has a very strict immigration policy... just in case the US completely crashes, burns and falls apart at the seams

Gorthfuscious did you guys see that Trump worked in a McDonalds 

 Trump is a man who identifies with the working class because he works in a menial job. The first billionaire who also works in a McDonalds  

Not a staged  photo-op at all 

 

 

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Gorthfuscious did you guys see that Trump worked in a McDonalds 

 Trump is a man who identifies with the working class because he works in a menial job. The first billionaire who also works in a McDonalds  

Not a staged  photo-op at all 

 

 

With his resume, not even Murdoch would be able to buy him a resident visa

 

edit that's assuming the LNP (the center right coalition) stays away from power, after all they were happy to sell freedom to a convicted child rapist and let him breach Covid lockdown so he could go back to his dear papa Pope (who paid the millions of dollars the Morrison government estimated his freedom to be worth), just goes to show everything is for sale if the price is right (except Greenland)

[rjshae]

Two weeks of campaign stupidity remain.

[Bartimaeus]

4 hours ago, rjshae said:

Two weeks of campaign stupidity remain.

Assuming it's not close and that Trump wins. Could be a bit longer to settle some states like Nevada (who count incredibly slowly) if it's really close, and if Trump loses, there'll be least weeks of shenanigans - at a minimum - to come. Of course, it'll be a lot less concerning this time around, since he's not already in office, so probably a lot easier to tune it out unless it turns into violent insurrection again.

From what I remember, when Democrats achieved a state trifecta in Michigan within the past couple of years, they changed their voting laws to allow pre-election day tabulation of absentee/early votes, so Michigan should in theory be known on election night. If Harris loses Michigan (or conversely, if Trump inexplicably loses Florida, another state that counts quickly), we'll know who's won on election night, since there's not really a path for Harris to win without Michigan (nor Trump without Florida...or more likely, North Carolina, but I don't know offhand whether North Carolina tabulates all of its votes quickly or not - I feel like it doesn't, but I don't know for sure). Early voting of states like Pennsylvania point to another election with a big early vs. election day split between the two parties, so everyone should prepare themselves for Red Mirage 2: Electric Boogaloo. I remember being (I think) the primary person on here four years ago cheering up everyone else who was dooming on election night that Biden was actually doing just fine despite how horrific the election day results looked, and kept repeating over the next day or two that Biden was probably even favored to win despite still being behind in most of the deciding states. It will likely happen again with most of the same problem child states that have stupid vote tabulation laws, so be prepared for lots of early doom and gloom and it getting dragged out for as long as possible.

Of the toss-up/swing states this cycle (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and maybe Nebraska 2 - there hasn't really been much quality polling of Nebraska 2 to determine whether or not it's in play for Trump or not, so let's not count our money early just because everyone seems to think it'll easily go blue), if Kamala wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (the traditional Blue Wall states that Trump managed to win by a hair that Biden was able to just barely claw back in 2020), and Nebraska 2, she has won the election.

Edited October 23 by Bartimaeus

[Malcador]

https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/election-poll-2024-presidential-trump-harris-5zvlczh0k

Not sure Americans really appreciate what war is like.  To be honest, sort of wish most of them would.

[rjshae]

21 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/election-poll-2024-presidential-trump-harris-5zvlczh0k

Not sure Americans really appreciate what war is like.  To be honest, sort of wish most of them would.

America is has been involved in many wars over the last century, so there's a segment of the population that is very familiar; I'd say more so than most nations. What we haven't experienced is what war does to the civilian population.

[BruceVC]

14 minutes ago, rjshae said:

America is has been involved in many wars over the last century, so there's a segment of the population that is very familiar; I'd say more so than most nations. What we haven't experienced is what war does to the civilian population.

But most  people arent really influenced by wars  that they dont have lived experience around or direct experience 

South Africa was involved for  decades in the border war and Namibia and I remember older people doing conscription,  I lived through South Africa's wars during Apartheid the first 15 years of my life but it had  no impact on me  because I was too young or not involved 

I would argue many  people forget  very quickly or selectively dismiss  why certain wars were necessary like the US invasion of Afghanistan after  9/11. You can find people in the US who claim that war was unjust and conflate it to Iraq 2003

But the invasion of Afghanistan was perfectly legitimate considering 9/11? 

 

 

 

 

 

[HoonDing]

There'll be a drag show in Kabul before Amerika elects a woman.

[Pidesco]

14 hours ago, BruceVC said:

But most  people arent really influenced by wars  that they dont have lived experience around or direct experience 

South Africa was involved for  decades in the border war and Namibia and I remember older people doing conscription,  I lived through South Africa's wars during Apartheid the first 15 years of my life but it had  no impact on me  because I was too young or not involved 

I would argue many  people forget  very quickly or selectively dismiss  why certain wars were necessary like the US invasion of Afghanistan after  9/11. You can find people in the US who claim that war was unjust and conflate it to Iraq 2003

But the invasion of Afghanistan was perfectly legitimate considering 9/11? 

 

 

 

 

 

The problem with Afghanistan wasn't if it was legitimate but rather how the US handled everything after the successful invasion. No follow through.

[BruceVC]

8 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

 how the US handled everything after the successful invasion. No follow through.

I always find this type of view   to be the strangest criticism of US military campaigns and efforts over the last 20-30 years 

Its fair and legitimate to criticize  the invasion of Iraq but the efforts to stabilize Afghanistan were real and substantial  

The US basically spent 20 years trying to stabilize Afghanistan, they spent something like $1 trillion dollars and for years Afghanistan had a legitimate and internationally  recognized government 

They failed to end the Taliban insurgency for a variety of reasons and the country was never truly stable and then you had  constant  corruption and inefficiency  within the new  Afghan government 

But its hard  to think of what more follow through the US could have done in Afghanistan short of making Afghanistan part of the US because end of the day only the Afghan government like all governments can truly stabilize the country

And the worst reality is there were many people saying the US must leave Afghanistan and when the US did leave the new Afghan security forces collapsed and Taliban took control and the country is worse than ever with no economic or positive   future for its citizens and particularly no future for Afghan women 

But  the US had to leave at some stage. I support that and it couldnt indefinitely sustain Afghanistan

Im really questioning what else the US could have done to support the new Afghan  government after 2001  because hindsight is 20/20?

 

 

 

[Zoraptor]

I mean, the US could have started by allowing the Loya Jirga to do what they wanted. Which was to bring back ex king Zahir Shah, not have US stooge Hamid Karzai imposed on them. Telling the Afghan's they had to have a system the US wanted, lead by the man the US wanted permanently established said system as imposed on the Afghan people and owed no loyalty, and its leaders as Quislings owed no loyalty.

Not like keeping the emperor played out badly for post war Japan, eh. But optics trumped practicalities because of the overriding need to cater to US domestic politics where having a king return under the US aegis would have looked bad.

[BruceVC]

7 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

I mean, the US could have started by allowing the Loya Jirga to do what they wanted. Which was to bring back ex king Zahir Shah, not have US stooge Hamid Karzai imposed on them. Telling the Afghan's they had to have a system the US wanted, lead by the man the US wanted permanently established said system as imposed on the Afghan people and owed no loyalty, and its leaders as Quislings owed no loyalty.

Not like keeping the emperor played out badly for post war Japan, eh. But optics trumped practicalities because of the overriding need to cater to US domestic politics where having a king return under the US aegis would have looked bad.

The  Taliban controlled the country before 2001 and they were the  main reason the country was unstable because they  created the insurgency 

How would bringing back the ex king Zahir Shah helped placate or stop the Taliban in anyway?

Would the Taliban allow him to govern the country peacefully?

 

[Zoraptor]

Before the US intervened the Taleban didn't control all the country, after the US intervention- or, lest we forget, a month before the end of it, in actuality- the Taleban controlled all of it.

The question that the US needs to ask is why and how they managed to make things worse and how they made the Taleban look more attractive to Afghans than they did in 2001.

Ultimately the problem was that as with every recent intervention the US spent its time building "a legitimate and internationally  recognized government"- ie one that would do what the US wants- but very little into building a legitimate and internally recognised government.

If you start everything off by saying that they could pick anyone for a leader so long as it was the US candidate (Karzai) you've told the country that the wants and needs of the US will always be paramount from the get go, and that the leadership will always be beholden to the US. Far and away the best strategy was to allow them to pick their own leader even if it wasn't the one you really wanted. Not like they were trying to install Hekmatyar, after all.

Unsurprisingly, not many Afghans wanted to fight for US interests instead of their own so much so that many of the first provinces to fall to the Taleban were not the pastun heartland of the south but the old bastions of resistance in the north.

[BruceVC]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/10/27/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-trump-up-in-3-new-surveys-harris-leads-in-2-others/

End of the day its still neck and neck and within the margin of error

Is anyone prepared to predict who will win?

Im not going to predict, its too close and the final influence from undecided voters too uncertain 

Exciting election in any regard