Ukraine Conflict - continuing

[Mamoulian War]

7 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Mamie what  is the historical connection between Moldova and Romania,  did they use to be one country?

Yes, then Soviet Union decided to "liberate" them, and annexed Moldova from Romania. The results were tens of thousands executed and deported Romanians to Siberia.

[Mamoulian War]

Finaly Ukraine received western weapons, with which, they can hit targets inside Russia.

https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/interview/2024/05/2/7185053/

[Gfted1]

ATACMS Volley Strikes Mass Of Russian Troops Training In Eastern Ukraine (twz.com)

[Mamoulian War]

Cameron has officialy green lit the usage of Uk weapons on Russia’s soil.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/3/7454055/

[Malcador]

Wonder how many SS the Ukrainians have. Well or the UK for that matter, they've ceased production, no?

[Elerond]

5 hours ago, Malcador said:

Wonder how many SS the Ukrainians have. Well or the UK for that matter, they've ceased production, no?

First batch they got contained according to some media source 50 missiles, but that number does not have official confirmation, Ukraine has received some additional missiles from UK, France and Italy, but total number of delivered missiles is most likely less than 100.

EDIT: SCALP aka Storm Shadows are still manufactured. Greece ordered undisclosed amount in 2022 and UK has replaced missiles that it has send to Ukraine. Total number of SCALP missiles that have been manufactured in past 20 years is less than 3000.

Edited May 4 by Elerond

[Mamoulian War]

Filming of small rotation of 2 x 4 UA soldiers and 2 journalists in the middle of hell at the zero line. 

 

[pmp10]

Russia is slowly resuming strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Seems a little sub-optimal to do this only after the winter.
 

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

Russia is slowly resuming strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Seems a little sub-optimal to do this only after the winter.
 

Did they ever stop?

[Mamoulian War]

Looks like there might be a lot of rumours emerging in the next few weeks. After jailing Shoigu’s thieving right hand, Shoigu was not seen at Putin’s “inauguration”. Let’s see, if he will be around the Red Square during today’s parade

[Gorth]

33 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Looks like there might be a lot of rumours emerging in the next few weeks. After jailing Shoigu’s thieving right hand, Shoigu was not seen at Putin’s “inauguration”. Let’s see, if he will be around the Red Square during today’s parade

Health advisory: Stay away from open windows?

[Lexx]

Shoigu is a survivor, he'll get through whatever is going on.

[xzar_monty]

32 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Shoigu is a survivor, he'll get through whatever is going on.

Shoigu is also 68, and the Russian male life expectancy is, shockingly, 69.36.

I know that Shoigu lives in luxury, which increases life expectancy, but in Russia, luxury can also be associated with open windows and someone just casually offering you a cup of tea.

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

Shoigu is a survivor, he'll get through whatever is going on.

Well he was at the parade. Who knows what these rumours are, anyway. Probably from that gold standard of Sushko.

[Zoraptor]

At the parade, gave an interview to TASS and was sitting at Putin's right hand during a interview/ statement thingy at the Kremlin. Bit of overkill in terms of proof of life, political or otherwise, really. The people at the table of the interview wotsit other than Putin did rather look like they were worried the ghost of Beria was about to leap out from behind the curtains with Makarov in hand if they so much as twitched though.

(Only 'interesting' thing was him being described as "acting" Minister of Defence by TASS which would be a bit odd for someone in the job 10+ years. Then again TASS' translations to english are not always perfect)

[xzar_monty]

I don't see Shoigu being in any particular danger, either -- or at least in any more danger than anyone else under Putin. (Which also means that he's completely subject to Putin's whims, whatever they may be, of course.)

But when @Mamoulian War writes that "Looks like there might be a lot of rumours emerging in the next few weeks" (see above), the statement itself is rather irrelevant: one thing we certainly haven't had ever since the beginning of the war is a lack of rumours.

Btw, when it comes to rumours, interpretations, theories and all the rest of it, just about the only interesting thing outside real news was the time when S. Lavrov appeared in that conference (in Bali, was it?) wearing a Basquiat T-shirt. That almost made me think that the guy was trying to send a message there, given the obvious discrepancy between Russia's stated line and Basquiat. But even if he was, I don't think the message had either a point or any discernible content.

[Mamoulian War]

3 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

I don't see Shoigu being in any particular danger, either -- or at least in any more danger than anyone else under Putin. (Which also means that he's completely subject to Putin's whims, whatever they may be, of course.)

But when @Mamoulian War writes that "Looks like there might be a lot of rumours emerging in the next few weeks" (see above), the statement itself is rather irrelevant: one thing we certainly haven't had ever since the beginning of the war is a lack of rumours.

Btw, when it comes to rumours, interpretations, theories and all the rest of it, just about the only interesting thing outside real news was the time when S. Lavrov appeared in that conference (in Bali, was it?) wearing a Basquiat T-shirt. That almost made me think that the guy was trying to send a message there, given the obvious discrepancy between Russia's stated line and Basquiat. But even if he was, I don't think the message had either a point or any discernible content.

Well we already had a lot of rumours about deaths of some high russian officials and their “health” issues. About Lukashenko as well. I was just simply curious, what we will “know” for sure in the next few days  . Shoigu being at the parade just bursted the bubble of anticipation I had  . As much as I would like to see him at the next Tea Party, It is just interesting to watch how the wishful thinking spreads fast in the west as well

[Zoraptor]

Lots of reports of fighting along the Ukrainian/ Russian border in Kharkov and Sumy oblasts. Actual progress or lack thereof is rumours* but the fighting is genuine without seeming particularly significant, yet.

Always likely to be the problem with the Ukrainian raids, if Russia stations troops there Ukraine has to as well so there's very little benefit, and it gives Russia the ability to launch raids as well plus obfuscate any larger scale operations.

*varying from the al Sahhaf-esque 'not a metre has been lost' to the entire RDK running away leaving a massive gap in Ukrainian lines.

[kanisatha]

I feel that Putin's strategy now is to try and take Khar'kiv and then use it as leverage and a bargaining chip to force the Ukrainians to accept an end to the war on Russia's terms.

[HoonDing]

They're gonna need the biggest shovels ever to take a city of 1.5million

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, HoonDing said:

They're gonna need the biggest shovels ever to take a city of 1.5million

They've augmented their forces with pickaxes.

[kanisatha]

23 hours ago, HoonDing said:

They're gonna need the biggest shovels ever to take a city of 1.5million

Well, they don't necessarily have to "take" the city. They just need to encircle it and then lay seige to it. They themselves are going to realize that if the point is to trade it away, then it makes no sense to expend the kind of resources it would take from them to capture the city. But it also keeps open the possibility that the Ukrainian defenses in the city simply collapse.

Forcing the Ukrainian side to accept defeat/surrender on Russia's terms is ultimately the end-game for Russia. Their first strategy to accomplish this end-game was to try and take a huge swath of Ukraine, essentially all of Ukraine east of and including Kiev, and force surrender in this way. That did not work. Their second strategy was to try and coerce the Ukrainian side by threatening to escalate to the use of tactical nukes. That also didn't work, mainly because of the external pressure on the Russians, including even from their friends. Now this is their third plan for coercing Ukraine's surrender, born from their battlefield succeses in eastern Ukraine recently. And this plan is the one that has a really good chance of succeeding, especially because Ukraine's Western allies are "going wobbly" (to use a line from Thatcher back in the day), and because within Ukraine itself we now have political differences over war strategy and Zelenskiy is no longer seen as Superman.

Edited May 12 by kanisatha

[Mamoulian War]

Looks like Shoigu not attending the inauguration had really deeper background in the end. Putin has “recommended” new minister of defense to take Shoigu’s place.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/12/7455460/

[Malcador]

Shuffling around, not sure if that's a promotion or what.  Wonder what Surovikin is up to, last I'd heard he left Africa to go home via jet, heh

 

 

Edited May 12 by Malcador

[Zoraptor]

Technically a promotion for Shoigu since he's going from implementing policy to setting it, at least in theory. Practically... it probably is a promotion. Patrushev is one of the biggest influences on Putin few people have heard of and very highly trusted. Apart from chairing the security council for 16 years he was Putin's* first appointee to the head of the FSB- and Putin's replacement there. If he weren't Putin's age he'd be a solid contender for a designated successor. Anyone replacing him is going to be similarly trusted.

Only caveat is if Patrushev's new unannounced position supercedes the security council head in some way, which it might.

*technically Yeltsin appointed him, but that was late stage 'may have had some blood in his alcohol stream' Yeltsin where Putin was running everything.