Ukraine Conflict - Those who can win a war well can rarely make a good peace and those who could make a good peace would never have won the war

[Zoraptor]

If true it will be interesting to see what if anything they give as the reason since Zaluzhny is meant to have political aspirations unlike most of the other people dismissed recently.

 

[xzar_monty]

Apparently, Zaluzhny isn't fired, but this is subject to change...

[Mamoulian War]

21 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/nato-societies-must-be-ready-war

 

Lot of articles from all over about how war with Russia is real soon. Although apparently Russia has been knocked back 18 years as well.

 

He has a lot of good arguments, how Putin might do it. The goal is not the all out war against NATO, but doing something, that would be very probable to make some big players to not respond to the invocation of Article 5, which if he could achieve, would make the NATO useless overnight.

 

 

[BruceVC]

@Malcador

Dont you remember what we  all thought  before the invasion of Ukraine? 

"Of course Putin wont invade  Ukraine, no chance of that. Stupid Western intelligence,  they always lie ...remember WMD  in Iraq " ...and look what happened   

We cant assume anything when it  comes to Putins  warmongering and  nationalism

[Malcador]

16 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

@Malcador

Dont you remember what we  all thought  before the invasion of Ukraine? 

"Of course Putin wont invade  Ukraine, no chance of that. Stupid Western intelligence,  they always lie ...remember WMD  in Iraq " ...and look what happened   

We cant assume anything when it  comes to Putins  warmongering and  nationalism

Really tired of this line of thought, Ukraine is not NATO so it's a case of dealing with NATO supplied weapons versus dealing with NATO troops. Invading a part of Finland seems a pretty high risk test as they have to hope NATO decides driving them out is enough as opposed to wrecking tonnes of stuff. Assuming Finland alone can't stop them anyway.

But any alarmism is justified if we can use the invasion. Good luck doing that for conscription as I see some articles talking about (conveniently by guys who won't serve). 

Just a lot of conditions need to occur for this to take place. Well that and some assume this is some game where Russia takes Ukraine fully and that's not going to hamper them in future. 

 

[kanisatha]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

@Malcador

Dont you remember what we  all thought  before the invasion of Ukraine? 

"Of course Putin wont invade  Ukraine, no chance of that. Stupid Western intelligence,  they always lie ...remember WMD  in Iraq " ...and look what happened

Not all of us.

[Zoraptor]

4 hours ago, Malcador said:

But any alarmism is justified if we can use the invasion. Good luck doing that for conscription as I see some articles talking about (conveniently by guys who won't serve).

Now that's unfair, Alexander Boris de Ffefel says he'll be there, with bells on (the Torygraph, via MSN since MSN isn't paywalled).

God Save the King indeed.

[Zoraptor]

According to The Times Zaluzhny was asked to resign, told he'd be fired when he refused but wasn't due to Syrsky and Budanov refusing the post (plus push back from allies).

[Sarex]

12 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

According to The Times Zaluzhny was asked to resign, told he'd be fired when he refused but wasn't due to Syrsky and Budanov refusing the post (plus push back from allies).

Should pretty much tell you how much money is being laundered in Ukraine.

[pmp10]

23 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

According to The Times Zaluzhny was asked to resign, told he'd be fired when he refused but wasn't due to Syrsky and Budanov refusing the post (plus push back from allies).

This most likely means that Zelensky is under increasing pressure to plan the presidential election and is starting to getting rid of potential competition. 
He needs Zaluzhny out as soon as possible so that his popularity has time to fade.

[kanisatha]

4 hours ago, pmp10 said:

This most likely means that Zelensky is under increasing pressure to plan the presidential election and is starting to getting rid of potential competition. 
He needs Zaluzhny out as soon as possible so that his popularity has time to fade.

This is a tough one for me. It is indisputable that Zelenskiy has done a huge amount for his country, including personal sacrifices amounting to putting his and his family's lives on the line. But in a democracy, the people have the right to and can kick him out of office, as incredibly unfair as that may be.

[Lexx]

I don't get how anyone can expect them to do elections under those circumstances. They are at war, lol.

[HoonDing]

Like Bibi, Zelensky needs the horses of war to keep running to stay in power.

[Zoraptor]

Strong western backing for Zaluzhny seems a bit odd when they spent a couple of months blaming him for the 'counter'offensive failing due to not being NATO enough. You're probably not meant to think about that implication too deeply though- see other excuses like it failing due to the Russians unfair conduct in not retreating(!) or the presence of undergrowth.

Given the timing my immediate thought was that Zelensky would blame him for the procurement scandal and use that as an excuse.

3 hours ago, Lexx said:

I don't get how anyone can expect them to do elections under those circumstances. They are at war, lol.

Only reason that elections would be insisted on would be if they wanted to get rid of Zelensky for some reason. 20% of Ukraine's population is held by Russia, 25% is outside Ukraine as refugees; not great circumstances for an election.

[xzar_monty]

15 hours ago, Lexx said:

I don't get how anyone can expect them to do elections under those circumstances. They are at war, lol.

I wonder how many historical precedents there are of countries holding presidential elections during a war, and of countries not doing that even if they should, according to their schedule.

[Lexx]

12 hours ago, HoonDing said:

Like Bibi, Zelensky needs the horses of war to keep running to stay in power.

Not sure if I understand your comment. Do you mean Zelensky keeps the war on going so he can stay in power? Not sure if joke or serious.

[pmp10]

19 hours ago, Lexx said:

I don't get how anyone can expect them to do elections under those circumstances. They are at war, lol.

They can't put it off forever either. 
Given current situation we might see a forever war stretch on for years.

Edited February 1 by pmp10

[Malcador]

Well they got the EU money.

[xzar_monty]

16 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Given the timing my immediate thought was that Zelensky would blame him for the procurement scandal and use that as an excuse.

There's a really good book on Zelensky that's just come out (by Simon Shuster), and it deals quite a lot with the Zelensky / Zaluzhny question. Obviously the book is not the final word on it, but in any case, the whole thing is very complex, and has been for quite some time.

I don't think it's the procurement scandal, except perhaps in the last straw sense.

[Malcador]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/01/opinions/ukraine-army-chief-war-strategy-russia-valerii-zaluzhnyi/index.html?cid=external-feeds_iluminar_msn

Not a very controversial one, I guess.

[BruceVC]

5 hours ago, Malcador said:

Well they got the EU money.

Its hard to read intent but you dont  seem happy?  Ukraine needs  funding to continue its defense against the Russian invasion and this aid is  a huge part  of  a successful Ukrainian military strategy 

This is  good news  and well done to   the EU, here   is an updated link about this 

https://www.dw.com/en/eu-leaders-reach-deal-on-50-billion-ukraine-aid-package/live-68140069#:~:text=Just one hour into the,in Brussels in mid-December.

 

 

[Malcador]

37 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Its hard to read intent but you dont  seem happy?  Ukraine needs  funding to continue its defense against the Russian invasion and this aid is  a huge part  of  a successful Ukrainian military strategy 

This is  good news  and well done to   the EU, here   is an updated link about this 

https://www.dw.com/en/eu-leaders-reach-deal-on-50-billion-ukraine-aid-package/live-68140069#:~:text=Just one hour into the,in Brussels in mid-December.

 

 

I'm not getting the money, so I've no reason to feel either way about it.  Still isn't enough, but I expect the US to clear that up and give Ukraine the cash sooner rather than later. in the meantime, Ukraine's nowhere near collapsing or anything, they even took out a Russian corvette today.

 

[Gfted1]

 

[Malcador]

Houthis better not get a hold of these drones.

[Mamoulian War]

Zelenskyi’s wife has said few times already, that she does not want him to stay in power in a foreseeable future, and it’s the second time that someone spreads “rumours” about Zaluzhnyi being sacked from his position. And that’s like fifths or sixths article by Times, which is heavily biased against Ukraine. Most of them were refuted in few days later as being influenced by Russian propaganda. And the “rumors” starting to spread at the same time as the “rumours” of PoW’s on shot down plane smells a more like another Russian psyops, than not