Ukraine Conflict - "The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them."

[xzar_monty]

Recent Russian losses appear significant:

 

[Malcador]

 

[Mamoulian War]

Yeah Avdiivka, if Russia has enough meat to grind, will probably fall in week or two. Still Ukraine, with such terrible Russian losses during this offensive, has already achieved victory in this particular battle. And it will become even worse as they will have less "iron" to cover their troops.

This is one more assessment from the front, from yesterday evening, before the situation has worsened according to Butusov.
 

 

[Malcador]

Bit unfair really, DPRK spends their money in a way EU citizens wouldn't enjoy.  Also stretching the "we" there, hah.  Keep seeing anecdotal moaning about lack of artillery and mortar ammo in Avdiivka though

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Bit unfair really, DPRK spends their money in a way EU citizens wouldn't enjoy.  Also stretching the "we" there, hah.  Keep seeing anecdotal moaning about lack of artillery and mortar ammo in Avdiivka though

Well, "we" is correct in the context of Lithuania being part of EU, and as such EU made a promise, which is so far not fulfilled, mainly due to the Orban's obstructions And Lithuania together with other Baltic states made one of the biggest donations to UA in connection to countries GDP. So they fully deserve the pass, when criticizing others

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Bit unfair really, DPRK spends their money in a way EU citizens wouldn't enjoy.  Also stretching the "we" there, hah.  Keep seeing anecdotal moaning about lack of artillery and mortar ammo in Avdiivka though

It should not surprise no one that 1 million has yet to delivered, considering that in March when pledge was made, EU's and Norway's  total production capacity of all types of artillery shells was 650 000 per year and they pledged to deliver 155mm shells, which even though are majority of that 650 000 is not the full capacity. EU also gave funds to build new ammunition factories, but those aren't build instantly (meaning that first of them start to produce ammunition next year). And of course because of EU politics all the ammunition needs to be bought from the EU manufactures. And some of the capacity has went to restock EU members own storages as they have send ammunition to Ukraine.

DPRK in my knowledge has only send old stock to Russia, so those numbers aren't comparable, as it EU's number does not take account ammunition that member states have send from their own stocks.

I am not sure how it comes as surprise to any foreign minister in EU, especially in Baltic states that EU members have decreased their ability to build conventional weapons and ammunition as there has been belief to that peace will last and possible future conflicts will be handled be the new intelligent weapons.  I wonder what kind of optimism has taken over EU's defense ministers  considering that Finland has largest artillery in western Europe, but not that many that use promised 155mm shells, so who in that meeting though that there would be such manufacturing capacity in Europe that they should announce that they will deliver million shells to Ukraine.

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Keep seeing anecdotal moaning about lack of artillery and mortar ammo in Avdiivka though

In the town itself it's probably lack of systems as well. You're not going to be towing in any m777s along that road, nor unarmoured SPG/H systems. Which leaves tanks and the relatively few SPGs with decent armour and speed- which will still constantly be within ATGM range let alone artillery, lancets and commercial drones. Since you're in a ~6km deep bottleneck the enemy artillery will always outrange your equivalents too, except for small mortars and the like. They can fire at your front from 6km behind the rest of the front line, you can't do the same.

Ukrainians seem to love fighting in bottlenecks for some reason. Loved it in 2014/5 at Ilovaesk and Debaltseve, loved it at Bakhmut, loved it in Avdivka. Love it so much they even created their own around Verbove. In all the early three they should have retreated far earlier than they did too.

[Mamoulian War]

First estimates of body counts during RU Avdiyivka cluster**** are out. 

No wonder, the UA love their bottlenecks so much

By new UA Minister of Defense:

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/28/7426140/
 

And by UK Ministry of Defence.

 

 

[Malcador]

That UK assessment seems like they just wrote something as they had to.

She's interesting to follow on this, even if has Twitter snark as is required too often.

[Mamoulian War]

We’ll see in a month or so, if RU can sustain the self-inflicted destruction of their troops, and UA the number of shells shot at them. From what I have seen, IMHO there is a very high chance that Avdiyivka will fall, but the cost is beyond irrational, and if UA could hold long enough with favourable casualties, this could weaken RU army as much as banging their heads against the Kyiv and they might lose some territory again. But as she said, I am worried about the possible stockpiling of crusie missiles for the winter as well. But as always, they will probably shoot only at civilian targets, so UA troops should be safe.

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

That UK assessment seems like they just wrote something as they had to.

That sums up half the MoD's assessments. Reduced to fighting with shovels and the 'counter' offensive failing due to grass... their SM guys aren't going to be mentioned in the same breath with Clausewitz et al any time soon.

Edited October 28, 2023 by Zoraptor

[Mamoulian War]

Report from Avdiyivka frontline, Dmitri has in other tweet also a link to the source (if younknow Russian language). Interesting is, that it’s circulating on Russian telegrams a lot, also another interesting thing is a news, that UA destroyed troops deep in Donbas which were meant to reinforce the meat grinder, which was not reported so far by UA side.

 

 

[Gorth]

Looks like the perpetrator of the attack on the Finnish-Estonian gas pipepline has been identified...

https://apnews.com/article/finland-estonia-china-vessel-baltic-sea-gas-pipeline-39334c9c565753c7e189c6efc302e43e

"Anchor of Chinese container vessel caused damage to Balticconnector gas pipeline, Finnish police say"

 

[HoonDing]

So glad that at long last we are totally, for real, absotively, completely winning.

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Gorth said:

Looks like the perpetrator of the attack on the Finnish-Estonian gas pipepline has been identified...

https://apnews.com/article/finland-estonia-china-vessel-baltic-sea-gas-pipeline-39334c9c565753c7e189c6efc302e43e

"Anchor of Chinese container vessel caused damage to Balticconnector gas pipeline, Finnish police say"

 

Interesting,  its a  pity we dont have a  similar confirmation and investigation  on who  destroyed the Nord pipe ?

[xzar_monty]

Shoigu has made a statement with a newish flavor in it. Whether it means anything, I don't know, but I doubt it. Here it is, as reported by The Guardian:

"Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu has spoken at a Beijing defence forum on Monday, claiming that Moscow was ready for talks on the post-conflict settlement of the Ukraine crisis, and on further 'coexistence' with the west, but that western countries needed to stop seeking Russia’s strategic defeat. The conditions for talks had not yet been met, he said."

The fact that he insists on the west stopping to seek Russia's strategic defeat implies, to me, that Russia is seriously worried, but that may not be the case, nor Shoigu's intention: I'd like to know Russian so that I'd be able to tell what he's actually said.

[Lexx]

I mean, they just have to remove their soldiers from ukraine. Doesn't sound that hard to me.

[xzar_monty]

17 minutes ago, Lexx said:

I mean, they just have to remove their soldiers from ukraine. Doesn't sound that hard to me.

Oh, absolutely. That's all it takes, and it's extremely simple. But it also shows yet another example of the human hierarcies of thinking, this time the fact that a lot of the time, humiliation is worse than death. Of course the people being humiliated are not the ones who are dying, but that's essentially what a lot of it comes down to. Another thing is that once enough resources have been allocated to something, it's easier to allocate even more resources than it is to stop the whole thing, even if it's abundantly clear that the project is idiotic. (Italy did the same thing rather remarkably and famously in the 1930s, if I got the decade right.)

[Malcador]

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-malta-peace-talks-2916b90abed193fc6a6bcd7fc84aae1a

Sounds like some diplomats wanted a trip to Malta.

[Malcador]

https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/

More interesting, seems a bit too gloomy though.

[Mamoulian War]

 

[pmp10]

4 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/

More interesting, seems a bit too gloomy though.

That one is noteworthy since it mentions some Ukrainian units outright refused to carry-out orders.
It could explain a thing or two about the course of the offensive. 

[Mamoulian War]

The tension rises as never before, not only in Ukraine...

Israel fights Hamas. The Myanmar junta collapses across northern Shan state. The RSF is attacking with the help of Wagnerites in Sudan. Eastern Syria is ready to explode. Tuareg rebels take more ground in northern Mali, the GNU & LNA are moving in Libya. Then there is conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, one new separatist group in Ethiopia after another, and there is rumoured military buildup on the Venezuela-Guyana border. And of course Yemen... Have I forgotten something? When was the last time, when there were so many conflicts around the globe at the same time? This will not end well, if Europe will hesitate to prepare better for the possible war, which Russia started on our soil by spreading disinformation as a part of their Hybrid Warfare against the Europe more than a decade ago...

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

That one is noteworthy since it mentions some Ukrainian units outright refused to carry-out orders.
It could explain a thing or two about the course of the offensive. 

There's certainly been claims of that happening for a while. All the way back to SveroDonetsk which was a year or so ago now (iirc at least one international unit refused to cross the river after a previous one got wiped inside a day). Couple that with many units now being full of not overly enthusiastic draftees rather than volunteers and you have a problem, at least when attacking.

Lots of Leopards lost over the last week, at least 7. They didn't seem to be being used at all for months previous.

[Mamoulian War]

10 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/

More interesting, seems a bit too gloomy though.

Official reaction to the Time article by the UA government…

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/31/7426576/

Although it showed a very interesting thing here. If US “anonymous” sources give “interview”, some people are all over the board, how untrustworthy they are. When UA “anonymous” sources gave “interview” for this article, no similar reaction around here for some reason