Ukraine Conflict - conflict continues

[Malcador]

6 hours ago, Lexx said:

Not just security staff. Apparently there also have been 12 crates of weapons. No clue wtf they were trying to do with all the "security guards"(?) and extra weapons.

 

Wonder if it's 12 crates of weapons or 12 crates with weapons.   Photo is of the airline cargo containers, but also those would carry baggage, no ?

[Zoraptor]

 

7 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Just out of curiosity, but also completely in earnest: is there an entity (a country, a major organization, whatever) on the international political scene that matters at least a bit and that you do respect?

Meme answer: Bhutan. So awesome Bioware ran a marketing campaign around it.

Actual Answer: also Bhutan

(It's not that I don't respect Europe or the US anyway, it's more that I get more than a little tired of western exceptionalism. Everybody indulges in a bit of "you're aggressive, I'm assertive; you're argumentative, I like a good discussion etc" but you get a lot more of it from the loudest voices and you don't get any louder than the west. Nor do you get as many people believing any other voice preaching moral authority, nor as many who are insistent they're right even when provided with evidence they aren't)

7 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

This is, again, interesting. I have referenced to this in an earlier iteration of this thread, but it's fascinating enough (in my view) to bring up again: there appears to something oddly scatological in the Russian way of living -- or at least in the way Russian (soldiers) conduct themselves (abroad).

Heh, you should read the accounts of people who have had Israeli soldiers squatting in their houses and the state of them afterwards. That's one of those things people just don't think about when it comes to soldiers because it's kind of icky.

The one which gets me is people always seem to be surprised at the near literal mountains of empty water bottles in any Saudi position the Houthis overrun and use that (rather than, well, their terrible performance) as an indicator that they're 'bad soldiers'. It's 40 degrees and the soldiers aren't going to pop down to the local recycling centre to drop off their empties...

[xzar_monty]

10 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

The one which gets me is people always seem to be surprised at the near literal mountains of empty water bottles in any Saudi position the Houthis overrun and use that (rather than, well, their terrible performance) as an indicator that they're 'bad soldiers'. It's 40 degrees and the soldiers aren't going to pop down to the local recycling centre to drop off their empties...

Yeah, it's like construction work in many African locations. It can progress a lot slower than what a Northern European is used to, and there's going to be plenty of breaks -- but there's a pretty good reason for it. Apparently it can be quite common to just ignore the fact that the natural world is not the same everywhere...

Edited June 19, 2023 by xzar_monty

[BruceVC]

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/art...point-african-plan-to-end-russia-ukraine-war/

Here is the African leaders 10 point peace plan, in summary

• Both leaders must listen to one another;
• The war must be settled through negotiations and diplomatic means;
• There must be a de-escalation of conflict on both sides;
• The sovereignty of countries in terms of the UN Charter and internationally recognised principles should be recognised;
• There needs to be a guarantee of security for all the countries involved. This issue has been raised by all sides;
• The movement of grains across the Black Sea must be opened up to remove blockages so that commodities can reach markets;
• Humanitarian efforts must be set up for those affected by the war;
• Prisoners of war must be released and children returned to Ukraine;
• There must be reconstruction of the destruction caused by the war; and
• Further engagements should be held to encourage more dialogue through the Africa Peace Mission.

It has some good and reasonable ideas but I cant see Putin agreeing to it because his political and ideological future is aligned to this war. If Putin drops dead tomorrow Russia will continue but the war needs some sort of victory for Putin's nationalistic aspirations to be sustainable

But he wont agree to the following without a semblance of military progress which the Ruskies haven't achieved yet

• The sovereignty of countries in terms of the UN Charter and internationally recognised principles should be recognised;
• Prisoners of war must be released and children returned to Ukraine
• There must be reconstruction of the destruction caused by the war

[Gorth]

The war will end some day. Not really an epiphany, no war lasts forever (even if it feels like that at times). What I'm genuinely curious about at the moment is whether or not the world learned anything from the Versaille Treaty.

[BruceVC]

Just now, Gorth said:

The war will end some day. Not really an epiphany, no war lasts forever (even if it feels like that at times). What I'm genuinely curious about at the moment is whether or not the world learned anything from the Versaille Treaty.

Its an interesting question about the Versailles Treaty ,  lets say the Ruskies  agree to terms. 

Its simpler than WW1 because all they have to do it leave Ukraine, stop the active invasion  and end the annexation of the 4 x Donbas regions. But Crimea can stay Russian, that would be my compromise from Ukraine

Because Russia is not going to lose like Germany did, no one is going to invade Russia,  so the peace agreements should be simpler 

 

[Gorth]

9 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Its simpler than WW1 because all they have to do it leave Ukraine, stop the active invasion  and end the annexation of the 4 x Donbas regions. But Crimea can stay Russian, that would be my compromise from Ukraine

Funny you should mention that, because I was thinking something along similar lines. Short of all out victory for one side (unlikely to happen), the outcome will be a compromise of some sort, that will be a hard sell domestically for both parties. Russia won't give up territories with ethnic Russian majority (as far as I understood various assessments of the mood in Moscow) and Ukraine won't relinquish any territory they got from the break up of the Soviet Union. But practical minds will have to tell Russia that the Donbas is Ukrainian territory and the Crimeans legitimately voted for joining Russia after Ukraine reneged on the original autonomy agreement that was the premise for them joining Ukraine in 1991.

Add things like allowing Russian as the language of choice in Dobas schools and administration and stop trying to kill off the population in Crimea by cutting off their natural water supply, stop supporting separatists both covertly and overtly etc. Maybe in 100-150 years time, they will decide joining their countries in a union would be mutually beneficial.

I just suspect a lot more people have to die before they get to this point

 

Edit: Point in case, France and England were in union for a while, even if it only lasted a few decades

 

[kanisatha]

7 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/art...point-african-plan-to-end-russia-ukraine-war/

Here is the African leaders 10 point peace plan, in summary

• Both leaders must listen to one another;
• The war must be settled through negotiations and diplomatic means;
• There must be a de-escalation of conflict on both sides;
• The sovereignty of countries in terms of the UN Charter and internationally recognised principles should be recognised;
• There needs to be a guarantee of security for all the countries involved. This issue has been raised by all sides;
• The movement of grains across the Black Sea must be opened up to remove blockages so that commodities can reach markets;
• Humanitarian efforts must be set up for those affected by the war;
• Prisoners of war must be released and children returned to Ukraine;
• There must be reconstruction of the destruction caused by the war; and
• Further engagements should be held to encourage more dialogue through the Africa Peace Mission.

It has some good and reasonable ideas but I cant see Putin agreeing to it because his political and ideological future is aligned to this war. If Putin drops dead tomorrow Russia will continue but the war needs some sort of victory for Putin's nationalistic aspirations to be sustainable

But he wont agree to the following without a semblance of military progress which the Ruskies haven't achieved yet

• The sovereignty of countries in terms of the UN Charter and internationally recognised principles should be recognised;
• Prisoners of war must be released and children returned to Ukraine
• There must be reconstruction of the destruction caused by the war

Interesting that the wording involves "sovereignty" without mention of territory and borders. That will be an immediate 'no' for Ukraine, with justified reason.

[xzar_monty]

On 6/18/2023 at 11:49 PM, Zoraptor said:

Actual Answer: also Bhutan

Yeah, it's a good one! A journalist friend of mine spent some time there and wrote a report; extremely interesting. (And thanks for a good reply.)

[Malcador]

On 6/19/2023 at 3:20 AM, Gorth said:

The war will end some day. Not really an epiphany, no war lasts forever (even if it feels like that at times). What I'm genuinely curious about at the moment is whether or not the world learned anything from the Versaille Treaty.

Maybe they'll want Russia closer to them than China.  Russia's got resources people want, so not going to be something like DPRK. 

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/blinken-us-set-out-robust-assistance-package-ukraine-2023-06-20/

ATACMS perhaps ? Blinken did meet with China before, too.

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/blinken-us-set-out-robust-assistance-package-ukraine-2023-06-20/

ATACMS perhaps ? Blinken did meet with China before, too.

But this is about the reconstruction costs once the war is over, not military aid?

And its exactly what I expect. It will be a combination of  loans and private sector investment

[BruceVC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/blinken-wrap-up-rare-visit-china-may-meet-xi-jinping-2023-06-18/

The US and China had an important meeting to improve relations. This matters to the stability of the overall global economy and also as Russia continues to be isolated from Western economies 

Its interesting how the Chinese respect the US and wanted to create the right impression for Blinken, to quote " Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed "progress" after shaking hands with Blinken at the Great Hall of the People, a grand venue usually reserved for greeting heads of state "

[Gorth]

3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/blinken-wrap-up-rare-visit-china-may-meet-xi-jinping-2023-06-18/

The US and China had an important meeting to improve relations. This matters to the stability of the overall global economy and also as Russia continues to be isolated from Western economies 

Its interesting how the Chinese respect the US and wanted to create the right impression for Blinken, to quote " Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed "progress" after shaking hands with Blinken at the Great Hall of the People, a grand venue usually reserved for greeting heads of state "

Blinken was was barely out the door (Xi's door)...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65969802

"US-China tensions: Biden calls Xi a dictator a day after Beijing talks"

 

Nah, no warm and fuzzy feelings there anytime soon I think

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

Blinken was was barely out the door (Xi's door)...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65969802

"US-China tensions: Biden calls Xi a dictator a day after Beijing talks"

 

Nah, no warm and fuzzy feelings there anytime soon I think

These types of comments dont help with good relations even if they valid. Its the same as Saudi Arabia and public criticism 

Biden must practice more quiet diplomacy 

[HoonDing]

[Mamoulian War]

Whenever I read something about peace solution, something like this immediately jumps up my mind

 

PS. Speaking of Crimea being a compromise, everyone ”for some reason” forgets about the way, how Crimea became “Russian”. Since Stalin laid his hands on Crimea, after conquering it, he started to deport and murder indigenous Crimean Tatar people since day one and then repopulating the area with loyal Russians to communist party and him. The latter continues up until today (just exchange Stalin with Putin). As a result, the number of Crimean Tatars dropped from 90% of local population to 5% of local population. Most of people are simply not able to grasp, that the what happened in Africa and Middle East after WW2, is slowly happening at ex soviet republics. Decolonization, and restoration of their cultural heritage. And Crimean Tatars would definitely love to end decolonized as well. Leaving them back in Russia as an appeasement for peace deal, would destroy this ambition for many decades again…

[Gorth]

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Whenever I read something about peace solution, something like this immediately jumps up my mind

 

PS. Speaking of Crimea being a compromise, everyone ”for some reason” forgets about the way, how Crimea became “Russian”. Since Stalin laid his hands on Crimea, after conquering it, he started to deport and murder indigenous Crimean Tatar people since day one and then repopulating the area with loyal Russians to communist party and him. The latter continues up until today (just exchange Stalin with Putin). As a result, the number of Crimean Tatars dropped from 90% of local population to 5% of local population. Most of people are simply not able to grasp, that the what happened in Africa and Middle East after WW2, is slowly happening at ex soviet republics. Decolonization, and restoration of their cultural heritage. And Crimean Tatars would definitely love to end decolonized as well. Leaving them back in Russia as an appeasement for peace deal, would destroy this ambition for many decades again…

A slightly similar thing happened to Koenigsberg/Kaliningrad exclave (90%+ of the original German/Prussian population had been killed or driven off during and after wwii World Special Military Operation II). Hence why there is little point in trying to sell it back to say, Germany (I'm sure Russia could use the cash right now).

 

Great cartoon

[Zoraptor]

That has been debunked multiple times here. And yes, it gets repeated a lot in the media and by so called 'experts' but that doesn't mean you have to believe it without actually checking.

Crimean demographics at wikipedia, since it's handy.

There hasn't been a Tartar majority in Crimea in 150 years, literally. Stalin's genocide resulted in 40k more Tartars being present in 2001 than 1939, and the current Russian genocide of them has resulted in the Tartar population increasing both in absolute numbers and proportionally...

Edited June 23, 2023 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

That has been debunked multiple times here. And yes, it gets repeated a lot in the media and by so called 'experts' but that doesn't mean you have to believe it without actually checking.

Crimean demographics at wikipedia, since it's handy.

There hasn't been a Tartar majority in Crimea in 150 years, literally. Stalin's genocide resulted in 40k more Tartars being present in 2001 than 1939, and the current Russian genocide of them has resulted in the Tartar population increasing both in absolute numbers and proportionally...

But the referendum was a joke and a farce. Lets not pretend it was even remotely credible 

And thats normal for how the Ruskies do referendums, like the annexation of the 4 x Donbas regions 

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, Gorth said:

A slightly similar thing happened to Koenigsberg/Kaliningrad exclave (90%+ of the original German/Prussian population had been killed or driven off during and after wwii World Special Military Operation II). Hence why there is little point in trying to sell it back to say, Germany (I'm sure Russia could use the cash right now).

 

Great cartoon

Pretty much same happened to Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Moldova, and despite that, they are able to have their own free state and culture now. Ukraine and Georgia not so much, though

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

That has been debunked multiple times here. And yes, it gets repeated a lot in the media and by so called 'experts' but that doesn't mean you have to believe it without actually checking.

Crimean demographics at wikipedia, since it's handy.

There hasn't been a Tartar majority in Crimea in 150 years, literally. Stalin's genocide resulted in 40k more Tartars being present in 2001 than 1939, and the current Russian genocide of them has resulted in the Tartar population increasing both in absolute numbers and proportionally...

Oh yeah, by whole 0,1% or by 7200 people, what a dramatical increase... Mostly from the people of United Russian affiliated Tatars, which are helping to get rid of the Mejlis activists, which despite being outlawed in 2016, are still trying to fight against the colonial oppresion... Also unsurprisingly, you are completely ignoring, that after Ukrainian independence the figure of Crimean Tatars rose from 1,6% up to 12,6% (by 240k by absolute numbers). And also completely ignoring that in 1939 there were 218k Crimean Tatars and in 1979 5422 Crimean Tatars. One wonder, how that could ever happen in such a peaceful country as Russia?

[Zoraptor]

There's no disputation that Stalin* deported the Tartars. Still, more moved back than left originally, so it was 'only' a deportation. 'Fortunately' from a statistics standpoint we can compare with other groups that got 'deported'- with the air quotes to denote the euphemism- like the Armenians (80% death rate).

And Putin is resorting to importing Volgar Tartars in order to... I really dunno, own people on the internet? That must seem extraordinarily weak even to you. Nevertheless I went and checked the demographics for Tartarstan to see if there was some sort of funny business going on... +80k Tartars, and a proportion increase too. If they are moving it's not having an effect on their numbers there, so probability is the claim is bollocks.

I guess at least you've dropped the claim of Tartars being 90% of Crimea's population in 1939. And you aren't claiming the entire Tartar population has been surreptitiously deported, now, like one 'expert' did here. So some credit due.

*I really hope this is a pointless footnote, but 100% not a Russian.

[Chilloutman]

thats pointless discussion from ethnicity point of view. People were deported left and right to Siberia because they were opposing cummunism, Stalin or russification. He cared very little what ethnicity they were (exception might be jews)

[Malcador]

Is interesting how wide separatism is assumed to be in Russia