Ukraine Conflict - conflict continues

[Malcador]

7 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

During all of the kerfuffle around NATO summit, it have been pretty much lost, at least around here, that France will provide their SCALP/EG missiles to Ukraine (the same missile as Storm Shadow). I read somewhere, that unlike Storm Shadow, which has shorter and longer range variants (UA got the shorter range variant), these are manufactured only with the maximum range of 550km. Is this information correct, can’t find anything about them in a language, which I understand.

Will be limited to 300km, MCTR dictates that.  France can ignore it perhaps, but it's not a good look, rules based order and all.

[BruceVC]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/12/analysis-ukraine-rolls-back-6-months-of-russian-gains-in-5-weeks

Its hard to get confirmed  information on the Ukrainian counteroffensive  but here is a good summary   on Ukrainian advancements 

 

[Zoraptor]

Ah yes, the notoriously understated Ukrainian Government which claims to have outright killed 240k Russian soldiers is underclaiming gains by 50%. It'd be one thing not to give specific areas taken for opsec, but area taken generally is not at all specific. Perhaps ISW is taking a leaf out of the Ukrainian book with Crimea being liberated in spring, and that extra land has been liberated, in their hearts?

People may have laughed at the Russian progress in Bakhmut but at least it had a decent population, not 40 (forty), as one of the settlements Ukraine announced liberated had. Also, taking a leaf out of the Syrian Civil War playbook of breathlessly talking about liberating territory in Aleppo when it's actually some hamlet in rif (provincial) Aleppo, not the city itself. They haven't taken* any heights over Bakhmut city, even according to pro UA sources, they've taken some heights over a bit of Bakhmut raion (ie district), which is an area of ~2000sqkm.

*they hold the heights over Khromovo which does overlook Bakhmut city, but then they never lost those.

7 hours ago, Malcador said:

Will be limited to 300km, MCTR dictates that.  France can ignore it perhaps, but it's not a good look, rules based order and all.

250km range for the ones supplied to Ukraine.

[xzar_monty]

On 7/13/2023 at 1:30 AM, Zoraptor said:

Eh, Hemingway's great for a pithy comment but he was incorrect factually there*, but it's not a great fit as it turned out the Italians were infamous for not being willing to actually fight for Il Duce

Hemingway was writing about what the Italians expressed about their willingness to fight; their actual willingness as displayed on the battlefield was a different matter altogether. I don't remember the piece I quoted all that well, but my sense is that Hemingway was quite scathing about how the Italians actually performed. But don't quote me on that.

But a general criticism of Hemingway's factual correctness can obviously be made, and I've also made one myself.

Edited July 14, 2023 by xzar_monty

[Mamoulian War]

I remeber how some people have been ridiculing the liberated land during offensive in Kherson a year ago. Now they are ridiculing it in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk  Let’s hope, their current statements and predictions will age the same, as in autumn of last year

 

 

 

[Gfted1]

Its almost inconceivable to me that Russia is struggling with ammo and small arms supplies. In my mind every single Russian is issued and AK-47 and a tin of ammo at birth.

Meanwhile in Ukraine: Watch Six AK-74s Strapped Together As A Ukrainian Anti-Drone Gun In Action (thedrive.com)

[Malcador]

5 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

Its almost inconceivable to me that Russia is struggling with ammo and small arms supplies. In my mind every single Russian is issued and AK-47 and a tin of ammo at birth.

Meanwhile in Ukraine: Watch Six AK-74s Strapped Together As A Ukrainian Anti-Drone Gun In Action (thedrive.com)

Believable, ammunition expenditure is nuts and Russian logistics are a bit degraded.  Wonder how Ukrainian ammo supplies are going as well.

[BruceVC]

6 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

Its almost inconceivable to me that Russia is struggling with ammo and small arms supplies. In my mind every single Russian is issued and AK-47 and a tin of ammo at birth.

Meanwhile in Ukraine: Watch Six AK-74s Strapped Together As A Ukrainian Anti-Drone Gun In Action (thedrive.com)

Thats really industrious, an effective anti-drone weapon 

[Mamoulian War]

Girkin’s take on current status at battlefield.

Very similar, to what ChrisO_wiki presented in his assessment, which I posted sooner.

[BruceVC]

This  is a good development and I support it. The only way to guarantee you wont be invaded by  warmongering nations like Russia  is to   join NATO 

So well  done Swedish authorities. The  correct message about NATO primarily being a defensive union matters 

 

[kanisatha]

16 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Girkin’s take on current status at battlefield.

Very similar, to what ChrisO_wiki presented in his assessment, which I posted sooner.

Yeah this has been my own assessment as well, because I believe the Russsians actually going on the offensive recently in the Kar'kiv and Donetsk regions is their desperate attempt to draw Ukrainian forces away from the southern front.

[Malcador]

4 hours ago, BruceVC said:

This  is a good development and I support it. The only way to guarantee you wont be invaded by  warmongering nations like Russia  is to   join NATO 

So well  done Swedish authorities. The  correct message about NATO primarily being a defensive union matters 

 

Seems like a waste of money, Swedes are ok with joining the alliance. Not to mention that with Finland in, Sweden's pretty secure as is, regardless.

And marketing a military alliance is odd to see as well, heh.

[BruceVC]

47 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Seems like a waste of money, Swedes are ok with joining the alliance. Not to mention that with Finland in, Sweden's pretty secure as is, regardless.

And marketing a military alliance is odd to see as well, heh.

I think what the Swedish government is worried about is misinformation created by Russian  propaganda about  NATO. Better to  counter  it than let it potentially  fester and grow

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

Kerch Bridge attacked and damaged again.

https://t.me/bazabazon/19608

[Mamoulian War]

Aftermath of Kerch Kaboom in Russian security forces.

 

 

[Gorth]

Not sure if new in any way, but from various sources (including satellite images), Wagner forces are now congregating around 100km south of Minsk. Lukashenko has already offered them "work", defending Belarus against hostile neighbors (a veiled threat against Poland?)

[xzar_monty]

On 7/15/2023 at 2:42 PM, Gfted1 said:

Its almost inconceivable to me that Russia is struggling with ammo and small arms supplies. In my mind every single Russian is issued and AK-47 and a tin of ammo at birth.

Interesting trivia: there's a Russian fellow who covertly reports to the biggest newspaper in Scandinavia, and the other day he pointed out that many ordinary Russians are struggling badly because Russia produces no nails. Or screws. Not proper ones, anyway: the guy said that Russian-produced stuff like this can be used to build a bad doghouse or a poor barn, but nothing better.

He's also in serious trouble with having to use Russian-produced paint, because it sucks. (People in the western parts of Russia used to get their paint from Finland, from companies such as Tikkurila who produce excellent paint.)

[BruceVC]

According to the SA government Russia has said they will declare war on SA if Putin is arrested during the BRICS conference next month

I find that hard to believe that Russia would do that? And I mean the threat and going to war with SA

Putin can attend BRICS virtually and if Putin drops dead tomorrow BRICS will still continue. It makes no difference to BRICS if Putin is around, its like the UN. Its not about people its about countries. I find the threat hard to believe?

Can you imagine Russia invading SA  

 

[Gorth]

7 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Can you imagine Russia invading SA 

They could nuke SA from a distance without ever setting foot there...

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, Gorth said:

They could nuke SA from a distance without ever setting foot there...

Nuke us when  Putin is arrested in SA .....surly not 

Honestly I think our government is exaggerating or lying because the ANC lost a court case around all deliberations about enforcing the BRICS warrant and now all discussions have to be public record

I want to know  if anything is official about this in the Russian media or government comments , have the Russians actually said " we will declare war on SA if Putin is arrested " 

 

Edited July 19, 2023 by BruceVC

[Gorth]

13 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Nuke us when  Putin is arrested in SA .....surly not 

Honestly I think our government is exaggerating or lying because the ANC lost a court case around all deliberations about enforcing the BRICS warrant and now all discussions have to be public record

I want to know  if anything is official about this in the Russian media or government comments , have the Russians actually said " we will declare war on SA if Putin is arrested " 

 

Russia seems happy to accept "collateral damage" when it's convenient

It would make life for the his successor a bit easier if Putin became a "glowing" example of Russian leadership (Fallout reference)

 

Edit: You may not have noticed, but the decision making process in Moscow isn't always rational by western standards

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Russia seems happy to accept "collateral damage" when it's convenient

It would make life for the his successor a bit easier if Putin became a "glowing" example of Russian leadership (Fallout reference)

 

Edit: You may not have noticed, but the decision making process in Moscow isn't always rational by western standards

You right and I agree Russia has demonstrated numerous irrational and illogical decisions

But I am particularly interested in the statement " we will declare war on SA if Putin is arrested " . I did some quick research and I cant find anything from Russia. All I can find is what our president said because if the Russians did say that then we mustn't arrest him, its not worth the risk even if its just a meaningless threat

And if it is true so much for the Russian " friendship " with the global south and SA 

 

 

[Lexx]

Why do they think that Putin will be arrested in SA. Did I miss something?

Edited July 19, 2023 by Lexx

[BruceVC]

3 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Why do they think that Putin will be arrested in SA. Did I miss something?

Whoah, yes you missed a lot 

There is an ICC arrest  warrant on Putin and SA is a signatory  to the ICC and therefore expected to enforce ICC warrants 

[Mamoulian War]

International Human Rights Court has struck a case against Ukraine about oppresion of Russian language speakers. And blaming Ukraine for destruction of MH17. Russia ignored all requests by the court for “clarifications”, so the court “dismissed” it.

I do not speak lawyerish, but this looks to me more as technical verdict, although with it, it has dismissed cases, which are not covered by other applications. Although, it is also written, that the court found no grounds relating to respect of human rights, to pursue in further examination of the case.

 

https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/app/conversion/pdf/?library=ECHR&id=003-7706301-10639634&filename=Russia v. Ukraine - struck out of Court's list of cases.pdf