Ukraine Conflict - The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his

[Gfted1]

Why would the blow the pipes instead of just turning off their spigots to Europe?

[Azdeus]

Well, because now they can't turn them on, leaving the EU without an easy and cheap way to get natural gas. More headaches for EUs energy market, hurts economically. Theres no actual proof the Russians did it either and so it's not the same fallout as if they kept doing their "Oh, well, it'd be a shame if during our routine maintenance on this old pipeline found another problem and had to keep it closed even longer..."

[Keyrock]

7 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

To easier blackmail EU of course.
 

Here is a theory which I posted few months ago, by one of Danish military analysts. Emphasis on theory. (Although few weeks ago I have posted some swedish newspaper here as well, which was talking about the same observation of unusually high RU activity near the place of “accident”.

 

Russia could do that without blowing up their own pipeline. They could just shut it off, it's their pipeline, they control it. If they wanted plausible deniability for seeming like they wanted to continue supplying energy to the EU but HAD TO  stop, they could have feigned a malfunction or said they'd have to temporarily shut the pipeline down to retrofit parts of it because of safety concerns. There are so many ways they could have accomplished the same goal without blowing up their own pipeline. The amount of tin foil required for me to get anywhere near believing this ludicrous story is more than all the stores and warehouses within 100 mile radius of me hold. 

I don't know if any of the theories posited so far are true, but I find Michael Shellenberger's story to be BY FAR the most plausible.

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Azdeus said:

Well, because now they can't turn them on, leaving the EU without an easy and cheap way to get natural gas. More headaches for EUs energy market, hurts economically. Theres no actual proof the Russians did it either and so it's not the same fallout as if they kept doing their "Oh, well, it'd be a shame if during our routine maintenance on this old pipeline found another problem and had to keep it closed even longer..."

Yes, this is also true and it answers @Gfted1 question

The Russians already did  shutdown the pipe or reduce gas for " maintenance " reasons, here is one link about this 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-11/gas-pipeline-russia-shut-down-germany-maintenance-europe-concern/101226656

But everytime they did this there was a massive and understandable outcry from the EU and they were accused of using energy blackmail. And its important to remember that Russia continues to pretend it  respects the international rules of law and order. If you listen to any Russian spokesman they never acknowledge they have done anything illegal and they even go as far as to say they respect UN and international law

But if the pipe gets blown up and no one knows who did it then they dont have to worry about the legal and contractual obligations to the EU around committed energy supply 

 

 

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by BruceVC

[Zoraptor]

Yes Russia blew it up. In the belief that that way no one would blame them for it and it would be good for their PR. Once again, they were mistaken which no doubt would have surprised literally no one on the entire planet.

What was I saying about people defending obviously implausible ideas with ridiculous arguments? If I had the contractual obligation to deliver some clothing and I blew up the road to stop the delivery... I'd still be in breach of contract, y'know, because I blew up the road in order to prevent the delivery. Breach of contract would probably be the least of my problems then, what with the borderline terrorism, but well, still breach of contract as the cherry on top.

Really though, it's amazing how far the west has gone to protect Russia. They even prevented a UN investigation, presumably to spare, uh, Russia from the obvious result. Very kind, especially since it spares Russia from... massive fines for breach of contract too. Guess the EU is just generous like that, they are after all renowned worldwide for their financial magnamimity where Russia is concerned.

Meanwhile the poor old US, forced to sell the EU gas at an enormous mark up and poor old Ukraine, forced to accept transit fees for Russian gas. I mean, some might say that the Russians would blow up the pipelines through Ukraine first of all for that reason, but oddly enough... they haven't. Only the one Biden said wouldn't exist if Russia invaded was hit. So clearly- yes, clearly- the real reason was that Russia wanted to embarrass Biden! Yes, that must be it!! Case solved!!!

Ho hum.

[Mamoulian War]

9 hours ago, Keyrock said:

Russia could do that without blowing up their own pipeline. They could just shut it off, it's their pipeline, they control it. If they wanted plausible deniability for seeming like they wanted to continue supplying energy to the EU but HAD TO  stop, they could have feigned a malfunction or said they'd have to temporarily shut the pipeline down to retrofit parts of it because of safety concerns. There are so many ways they could have accomplished the same goal without blowing up their own pipeline. The amount of tin foil required for me to get anywhere near believing this ludicrous story is more than all the stores and warehouses within 100 mile radius of me hold. 

I don't know if any of the theories posited so far are true, but I find Michael Shellenberger's story to be BY FAR the most plausible.

As Azdeus and Bruce said, if they turn it off, they can be balmed for it, and lately sued for breaching the contracts for massive fines. Blewing it up, without getting caught, and convincingly blaming US for it, would hit two birds woth one stone. Destruction of trust between EU and US, and massive uproar in Germany due to extreme prices of gas on thier market. Thankfuly, if they were the culprits, they miscalculated again like many many times before

[Mamoulian War]

Anyway very funny to read, how private armies in Russia are illegal by law, while Shoigu recruiting for his own PMC

Like the laws in Russia would be ever worth anything to “ruling class”

[Keyrock]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

As Azdeus and Bruce said, if they turn it off, they can be balmed for it, and lately sued for breaching the contracts for massive fines. Blewing it up, without getting caught, and convincingly blaming US for it, would hit two birds woth one stone. Destruction of trust between EU and US, and massive uproar in Germany due to extreme prices of gas on thier market. Thankfuly, if they were the culprits, they miscalculated again like many many times before

I'll tell you what, let me make a tin foil hat, then, just to be safe, I'll line the entire house with tin foil, don't want any mind control rays from the lizard people in the hollow moon to get through. Then I'll get in touch with Joe Rogan to get some DMT. Maybe then I'll be able to do the mental gymnastics necessary to have that conspiracy theory make sense in my mind.

Seriously, I'm not saying the Shellenberger story is 100% for sure correct, but holy **** is it way more plausible than the Russians blew up their own pipeline to hoodwink everyone story. I'll go back to Occam's Razor. In the absence of a sure explanation, the explanation requiring the least amount of extra steps is the correct one. Examine each of the posited stories and ask yourself "which one requires the least amount of hoops to jump through?" I know my answer to that question.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Keyrock

[Zoraptor]

I kind of can't believe it has to be said again, but Russia blowing the pipe up does not get Russia out of their contractual obligations, it makes it worse. Indeed, if the EU/ NATO etc were sure that Russia did it why not go with the UN investigation, hmm, would remove any idea of bias and get them their massive compensation payment with less problems... I mean, international investigations are good enough for CW usage in Syria, or whether Putin is kidnapping children. Them not being good enough here, well, it almost seems like they aren't quite sure, and may be ever so slightly worried about what an independent investigation might find.

As it stands, and per the sureness with which they've made their accusations they are (1) giving up financial pressure on Russia, for no reason, (2) refusing to embarrass Russia, for no reason, and (3) not committing to an independent investigation, for no reason. In contrast, Russia would have given itself a massive repair bill and very difficult repair task while handing the market to the US and all for what? Some obfuscation about something we all- including them- know they'd be accused of doing anyway, whether or not they did; and when they had multiple, far better alternatives.

I mean, if they're going to do that then blowing up the pipes through Ukraine is a far better choice. Sure, they'd be accused of doing it, but apparently that doesn't matter and they'd be excused any contractual obligations by saying Ukraine did it. Easy to repair, spikes prices and causes panic, and hey, if it's hard to repair or keeps happening there's always Nordstream 2 that could be opened. But no, far better to blow up the ones that don't benefit Ukraine instead.

We don't just need Good Guy West, not wanting to embarrass Russia; we also need Good Guy Russia not wanting to deprive Ukraine of its transit fees...

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Anyway very funny to read, how private armies in Russia are illegal by law, while Shoigu recruiting for his own PMC

That's kind of the point though, eh.

If Prigozhin were actually a rogue outsider he simply wouldn't be able to run a PMC, in Russia, because they'd use that law against him and be worried that he'd launch a coup or whatever with his PMC. They don't, so he isn't actually a rogue outsider, he's an insider. It's just convenient to have controlled opposition.

[Azdeus]

59 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

I kind of can't believe it has to be said again, but Russia blowing the pipe up does not get Russia out of their contractual obligations, it makes it worse. Indeed, if the EU/ NATO etc were sure that Russia did it why not go with the UN investigation, hmm, would remove any idea of bias and get them their massive compensation payment with less problems... I mean, international investigations are good enough for CW usage in Syria, or whether Putin is kidnapping children. Them not being good enough here, well, it almost seems like they aren't quite sure, and may be ever so slightly worried about what an independent investigation might find.

As it stands, and per the sureness with which they've made their accusations they are (1) giving up financial pressure on Russia, for no reason, (2) refusing to embarrass Russia, for no reason, and (3) not committing to an independent investigation, for no reason. In contrast, Russia would have given itself a massive repair bill and very difficult repair task while handing the market to the US and all for what? Some obfuscation about something we all- including them- know they'd be accused of doing anyway, whether or not they did; and when they had multiple, far better alternatives.

I mean, if they're going to do that then blowing up the pipes through Ukraine is a far better choice. Sure, they'd be accused of doing it, but apparently that doesn't matter and they'd be excused any contractual obligations by saying Ukraine did it. Easy to repair, spikes prices and causes panic, and hey, if it's hard to repair or keeps happening there's always Nordstream 2 that could be opened. But no, far better to blow up the ones that don't benefit Ukraine instead.

We don't just need Good Guy West, not wanting to embarrass Russia; we also need Good Guy Russia not wanting to deprive Ukraine of its transit fees...

That's kind of the point though, eh.

If Prigozhin were actually a rogue outsider he simply wouldn't be able to run a PMC, in Russia, because they'd use that law against him and be worried that he'd launch a coup or whatever with his PMC. They don't, so he isn't actually a rogue outsider, he's an insider. It's just convenient to have controlled opposition.

It's ****ing expensive for the EU to buy gas from not-pipeline sources, it hurts us more economically than it does Russia to repair it. And they'll want us to lift sanctions if they are to repair it so they can "get workshop conditions".

Noone in the UN is going to vote through a Russian proposed anything as things stand, and Sweden, Denmark and Germany are already doing investigations into it, which likely is viewed as good enough.

As things stand right now, there's no proof that Russia is actively doing energy extortion on the EU, while still costing the EU a ****tonne of money and ****ing over poor countries like Pakistan by raising gasprices everywhere else.

  

13 hours ago, Keyrock said:

Russia could do that without blowing up their own pipeline. They could just shut it off, it's their pipeline, they control it. If they wanted plausible deniability for seeming like they wanted to continue supplying energy to the EU but HAD TO  stop, they could have feigned a malfunction or said they'd have to temporarily shut the pipeline down to retrofit parts of it because of safety concerns. There are so many ways they could have accomplished the same goal without blowing up their own pipeline. The amount of tin foil required for me to get anywhere near believing this ludicrous story is more than all the stores and warehouses within 100 mile radius of me hold. 

I don't know if any of the theories posited so far are true, but I find Michael Shellenberger's story to be BY FAR the most plausible.

They did that for several months already, and the EU was getting fed up with their BS. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazprom-nord-stream-1-gas-stay-shut-until-turbine-fault-fixed-no-timeline-given-2022-09-02/

Edited April 29, 2023 by Azdeus

[Azdeus]

I'd also like to add, that from a Russian perspective, showing the EU that a large part of our energy infrastructure is vulnerable to Russian attacks without them actually verbally threatening us, and without attacking something that doesn't belong to another country, is a good way to having people waver in their support for the Ukraine war. We have thousands of kilometres of electrical cables in the waters of the Baltic Sea. The reason why Sweden has ludicrous powerbills (Without having any gaspowered plants), personally going from paying about 0.6 SEK/0.05€, to 2.75 SEK/0.24€ is because we are connected to Germany and by EU accord have agreed to keep a certain amount of power available for export at all times. Guess what that has done to public opinion about standing united with EU? Let's just say that the Swedish Democrats anti-EU rhetoric sounds good right about now.

[Keyrock]

35 minutes ago, Azdeus said:

They did that for several months already, and the EU was getting fed up with their BS. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazprom-nord-stream-1-gas-stay-shut-until-turbine-fault-fixed-no-timeline-given-2022-09-02/

Thank you for proving my point. If Russia's goal was to put pressure on the EU, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say that would be beneficial to them, it would make the most sense to be overt about it. Why would you hatch some amamie plan involving blowing up your own pipeline and attempting to frame another party for it if it would be a lot easier AND more effective to simply say "we're cutting you off from your energy supply unless you stop sending military aid to Ukraine. Oh, what's that, it's winter and people might freeze? Well that's just too ****ing bad now isn't it?" This has the added benefit of allowing them to simply flip a switch if they wanted to turn the pipeline back on in the future instead of having to make costly and time consuming repairs. 

Edited April 29, 2023 by Keyrock

[Azdeus]

12 minutes ago, Keyrock said:

Thank you for proving my point. If Russia's goal was to put pressure on the EU, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say that would be beneficial to them, it would make the most sense to be overt about it. Why would you hatch some amamie plan involving blowing up your own pipeline and attempting to frame another party for it if it would be a lot easier AND more effective to simply say "we're cutting you off from your energy supply unless you stop sending military aid to Ukraine. Oh, what's that, it's winter and people might freeze? Well that's just too ****ing bad now isn't it?" This has the added benefit of allowing them to simply flip a switch if they wanted to turn the pipeline back on in the future instead of having to make costly and time consuming repairs. 

You're not getting the big picture here, and you're not looking at it from their view. They completely FUBARed the EU energy market this way, and them keeping the valves closed didn't lessen our support for Ukraine in any meaningful way in the month that they had kept the pipeline closed. Germany also wants to get rid of their dependence on Russian gas, greatly lessening the value of the pipeline itself making it already dead in the water as it was.

[Keyrock]

The amount of mental gymnastics y'all are going through to convince yourselves of this ludicrous Russia blew up their own pipeline narrative is comical. I'm Polish, we have a long history with Russia and most of it is decidedly not friendly so my default state is to be distrustful of the Russian regime (I have nothing against the common people of Russia nor of any other country). Still, I do my best to be as objective as possible (it's impossible to be completely unbiased). If y'all want to live in the fantasy world where it's more likely that Russia blew up their own pipeline in a wacky plot to frame another party than the US, who has alluded to blowing up said pipeline and is financially benefitting from the blowing up of said pipeline, blew up the pipeline. What can I say? You do you I guess.

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, Azdeus said:

 making it already dead in the water as it was.

Yeah, that pipeline is dead in the water alright

Just too many viable options with no hard proof at the moment. Guessing is fun of course, but anything short of live underwater video footage of the act itself (or an official confession) will always have the stigma of being government tampered evidence associated with it

[Azdeus]

7 minutes ago, Keyrock said:

The amount of mental gymnastics y'all are going through to convince yourselves of this ludicrous Russia blew up their own pipeline narrative is comical. I'm Polish, we have a long history with Russia and most of it is decidedly not friendly so my default state is to be distrustful of the Russian regime (I have nothing against the common people of Russia nor of any other country). Still, I do my best to be as objective as possible (it's impossible to be completely unbiased). If y'all want to live in the fantasy world where it's more likely that Russia blew up their own pipeline in a wacky plot to frame another party than the US, who has alluded to blowing up said pipeline and is financially benefitting from the blowing up of said pipeline, blew up the pipeline. What can I say? You do you I guess.

Russia doesn't want to frame anyone, they want deniability, fear, uncertainty, division and doubt in the EU.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Azdeus said:

Russia doesn't want to frame anyone, they want deniability, fear, uncertainty, division and doubt in the EU.

But I dont think Keyrock believes that about Russia. I think he believes that Russias global intentions and actions  have been misrepresented and its mostly the West\US who are responsible for the invasion and Russia had no choice because they were defending themselves. I may be wrong but thats the  impression Im getting

I am not going to repeat to same point I have made twice but there is absolutely a valid Russian reason  to blow up the pipe. And its got  to do with the impact on energy prices to the EU and how that could have influenced Western sanctions. 

And this is not  my opinion, anyone who has been following the war from the beginning will remember the anxiety and concerns with the initial energy prices the first 6 months and how there was a call to " end sanctions because Russia is an irreplaceable source of energy ". And its not a tinfoil theory when there is an obvious long term advantage to Russia. For me its not about framing anyone, it was a  strategic decision to ensure sanctions end..it was a  gamble that didnt pay off because primarily the EU has found other energy sources and markets outside of Russia 

But end of the day we wont know the truth until its revealed. So it could be the US, pro-Ukrainian groups, some EU militant groups or Russia. They all have valid reasons to do it 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by BruceVC

[Zoraptor]

3 hours ago, Azdeus said:

It's ****ing expensive for the EU to buy gas from not-pipeline sources, it hurts us more economically than it does Russia to repair it. And they'll want us to lift sanctions if they are to repair it so they can "get workshop conditions".

It will take literal years to repair, since once water is in the pipe essentially has to be rebuilt from scratch, and it took over two years to build in the first place. If you want a short term disruption so you can spike prices and get NS2 approved (1) you don't blow up half of NS2 and (2) you don't blow up anything. Oh no, Ukrainians have hacked our pumps and caused damage! Nice and deniable; same effect without the permanence.

So that's 2 years during which Russia will have zero leverage and zero income from it, and the large cost of rebuilding it. Funny thing is, even if only NS1 had been blown up it still wouldn't have benefited the Russians, since it would have precisely halved their theoretical supply (ie it would have been as if NS2 hadn't been built). And that was really the only argument for them doing it.

I don't think anyone is saying that the EU benefits, but Russia certainly doesn't either. Really though, the argument is the equivalent to that of Russia dousing themselves in petrol and setting themselves on fire in order to burn down the EU's house. Why not blow up those Ukraine transiting pipelines instead, they'd have a reason for that and a benefit. And all so that people don't have to face the possibility that the country that benefited most financially- and said they would do it- did it.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

 

I don't think anyone is saying that the EU benefits, but Russia certainly doesn't either. Really though, the argument is the equivalent to that of Russia dousing themselves in petrol and setting themselves on fire in order to burn down the EU's house. Why not blow up those Ukraine transiting pipelines instead, they'd have a reason for that and a benefit. And all so that people don't have to face the possibility that the country that benefited most financially- and said they would do it- did it.

And what you consistently dont seem to understand or accept is of course Russia benefits strategically and in the long term if sanctions or the public support for sanctions ends

The main way for the sanctions to end would be if energy prices in the EU skyrocketed and ending Russian sanctions would stop this energy price crisis

And Im surprised we even debating this because this was a clear and attempted Russian strategy and most of us  on  this thread use to read @Darkpriest posts about " tick-tock" and how the Western economies were going to collapse because of the impact primarily on energy security. And the  Russian propaganda machinery peddled this hyperbole and fake news for about 3-6 months hoping that would be outcome  and there literally dozens of articles about this and I know because many of them posted on Codex

So no, Russian blowing up the pipe is  not the same as them dosing themselves on fire  because they have other energy  revenue sources. Right now Russia is selling energy to numerous countries, albeit at reduced prices, and they do have  a  consistent revenue stream. Whoever blew up the pipe has not crippled the EU or Russia, its just had an impact

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

8 hours ago, Keyrock said:

I'll tell you what, let me make a tin foil hat, then, just to be safe, I'll line the entire house with tin foil, don't want any mind control rays from the lizard people in the hollow moon to get through. Then I'll get in touch with Joe Rogan to get some DMT. Maybe then I'll be able to do the mental gymnastics necessary to have that conspiracy theory make sense in my mind.

Seriously, I'm not saying the Shellenberger story is 100% for sure correct, but holy **** is it way more plausible than the Russians blew up their own pipeline to hoodwink everyone story. I'll go back to Occam's Razor. In the absence of a sure explanation, the explanation requiring the least amount of extra steps is the correct one. Examine each of the posited stories and ask yourself "which one requires the least amount of hoops to jump through?" I know my answer to that question.

You seems to not understand, that it’s in Russian’s nature to make all these extra hoops for centuries, just to be able to lie to everyone else with strainght face, that it wasn’t them, or all has been done “according to law”.  My family experienced all these extra hoops first hand, while we were occupied for 30 years by them, for everyone else, who were lucky to not experience Russian World yet, I really recommend to read or attend some plays written by Pushkin or Dostoyevsky to learn a little bit about true Russian mentality. The best poem to start would be Dostoevsky’s Idiot. https://welovetranslations.com/2022/07/17/whats-the-best-translation-of-the-idiot/

 

Edit: Yes I know, you have polish herritage, therefore I am little bit of puzzled, that you find it implaussible of how many extra hoops the Russians are wiling to perform, just to be able to divide the populace in the countries, they want to conquer or influence, while doing their best to look innocent in the eyes of their puppets and commrades

 

Edit2: and you are also forgetting, that one of the things they have blown up, was NordStream 2 pipe, which already had zero value during the explosion, as there was no chance for it being used for gas transportation in the next decade or two

[Malcador]

On 4/28/2023 at 6:15 AM, HoonDing said:

how come 200 billion dollars later the guys with shovels have still not been beaten

Well you see, the Asiatic Hordes...

[Gfted1]

Why use a minisub or divers to blow up the pipeline? Couldnt they just drive a few explosive packed maintenance robots down the pipeline? Configurable - LT2-F-W Watertight Tethered Inspection Robot (superdroidrobots.com) (Example)

I wonder if pictures show an inward or outward explosion?

[Gfted1]

3 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Well you see, the Asiatic Hordes...

I assume we have to wait for the Ukrainian counteroffensive to assess the true might of the shovel.

[Lexx]

15 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Why use a minisub or divers to blow up the pipeline? Couldnt they just drive a few explosive packed maintenance robots down the pipeline? Configurable - LT2-F-W Watertight Tethered Inspection Robot (superdroidrobots.com) (Example)

I wonder if pictures show an inward or outward explosion?

Need to have such robots first, I guess.

[Malcador]

13 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

I assume we have to wait for the Ukrainian counteroffensive to assess the true might of the shovel.

Will be interesting to see, the Ukrainians promise some swarm of drones, although Russia has (or had) very good EW according to them - this could be usual Ukrainian whining for more kit though.