Ukraine Conflict - The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his

[Malcador]

7 hours ago, BruceVC said:

The US made a convincing allegation yesterday

Really ? The ambassador's statement was a bit funny, "We're confident" and 6 months late.

[kanisatha]

The US brought it up with the SA government back in December itself. The ambassador's comments were merely the first public comments.

[Katphood]

Russia has already lost the war. Putin will definitely experience an agonizing end. 

Those cruise missiles are a game changer. Also, when a fox puts up more fight than 5 Wagner mercs:

 

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, Katphood said:

Those cruise missiles are a game changer.

Wonder how many they got.  Guess we get to see how they match up against Russian AD as well - good field testing.

 

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Malcador

[HoonDing]

Good thing Russia has #SnakeEyes

[Mamoulian War]

9 hours ago, Malcador said:

Wonder how many they got.  Guess we get to see how they match up against Russian AD as well - good field testing.

 

 

ADM-160B MALD remains have been found near Luhansk according to Russian sources.

 

https://t.me/milinfolive/100548

 

other Russian sources are talking about 2 Hrim missiles hitting the target. One of the wounded was Russian MP of State Duma Volodatsky.

[Mamoulian War]

EU intelligence is estimating 13000 KIA UA soldier since the war began, US is estimating 17500 UA and 43000 RU soldiers.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/ukraine-lost-fewer-than-15000-troops-eu-countries-intelligence-says/

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

Today, one of the most impressive hits of Russian Air Defense has been recorded. Over Briansk region, Su-34, Su 35 and 2x Mi-8 has been downed over few hours. 9 airmen are reportedly dead. What is even more impressive, all 4 aircrafts belonged to Russian Airforce

 

https://t.me/bazabazon/17634

 

 

[bugarup]

A short video of one of them going down is here:

https://english.nv.ua/nation/coverage-of-all-downed-aircraft-in-bryansk-oblast-nv-live-ukraine-news-50324289.html

TASS gives "engine fire" as preliminary reason of the copter crash. Can't argue, engines do catch fire when they're fired on.

 

[Malcador]

Russian AD on automatic I guess?

Ah, no might be Ukrainian one, they've moved up.

Edited May 13, 2023 by Malcador

[Zoraptor]

On 5/13/2023 at 1:35 AM, Malcador said:

Really ? The ambassador's statement was a bit funny, "We're confident" and 6 months late.

The US ambassador has "apologised unreservedly" in private according to the South African government.

Publicly and as cited in the beeb article

As yes, the old 'correction of misinterpretations' of something that really couldn't be interpreted any other way- to whit: "We are confident that weapons were loaded into that vessel, and I would bet my life on the accuracy of that assertion"

Not unsurprising since he got hung out to dry by Kirby.

Edited May 13, 2023 by Zoraptor

[Mamoulian War]

Everything is going according to plan.

And someone probably did not listen to the advices to never drink tea with Russians around

 

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Russian AD on automatic I guess?

Ah, no might be Ukrainian one, they've moved up.

According to OSINT All downed aircrafts were more than 50km deep in Russia territory. Does UA even has the capability to do something like that?

[Zoraptor]

Yes, though the practicalities suggest it's unlikely. The old S-300 missiles have a range of 75km, and PAC-2 patriots about twice that. But the S-300 would have to be within marginal artillery range (and likely more of a concern: very easy lancet range) of the border to fire that deep into Russian territory, and most sources have the Patriots limited to sitting around Kiev- they'd have to be somewhere like Konotop to get 50km into Bryansk. That would make interceptions over Kiev... difficult- and at least supposedly there are limitations over using NATO supplied weapons in Russia proper. Find Patriot wreckage and it's hard to argue that it was Russia using it.

The video of one Mi-8 suggests something far smaller than either (but probably bigger than manpad --> Tor?/ Pantsir? or similar and thus friendly fire).

Lukashenko has looked genuinely ill for a while, far more so than Putin has at any point.

Edited May 13, 2023 by Zoraptor

[pmp10]

Turns out Zelensky at one point planned occupation of Russian territory.
Seems he doesn't think Ukraine has much diplomatic leverage.

At one point he was also upset enough with Hungary to suggest striking at the Druzhba pipeline.

[Malcador]

46 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

According to OSINT All downed aircrafts were more than 50km deep in Russia territory. Does UA even has the capability to do something like that?

If they move systems up very close, I think they do.  Latest rumour is Polish Migs with AIM-120s, as well. So I guess who knows.

[BruceVC]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...illion-military-aid-package-ukraine-rcna84319 

Further information about the $3 billion Germany military aid package for Ukraine, well done Germany

I said this before and I will repeat it , I wish my government was unequivocal with its support for Ukraine and also was on the right side of history

And also its always appreciated to see the general and continued support from the EU 

[Malcador]

 

[BruceVC]

The SA story about supplying weapons to Russia has reached the expected levels of confusion which is fairly common in SA especially around our foreign policy, to summarize 

• the Russian ship docked in at Navy base despite the fact it was a cargo ship and should have docked at a normal port
• despite the fact it docked 6 months ago and due to public pressure  an internal defense department  inquiry  was launched back then but we still dont have the outcome of that....6 months later
• an independent inquiry has been created led by  a retired judge to get to the bottom of this. Its possible if weapons were sold to Russia most people in government didn't authorize it, this has happened before. During the Corona era our military bought millions of unauthorized vaccines from Cuba that were not on the list of acceptable vaccines from our health department
• the US ambassador didn't apologize for the allegation, he apologized for breaking diplomatic protocol

And in summary why cant SA sell weapons to Russia, there are 2 main reasons

• our own internal arms regulations say we cant provide weapons to any country involved in a war. We got criticized domestically  for selling weapons to Saudi Arabia that were used in Yemen (I dont personally agree with this but this is our arms sales  regulations )
• SA has said on numerous occasions that we are neutral and want to play a part in mediation and " finding peace" in Ukraine. Obviously you cant provide weapons to Russia and claim you are neutral 

Here is link that summarizes these events 

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-05-12-explainer-what-we-know-about-the-explosive-russian-ship-scandal-so-far/

 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

UK is going one step further again. They announced training program for UA pilots on F-16s.

 

 

[Gorth]

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

UK is going one step further again. They announced training program for UA pilots on F-16s.

 

 

I know Denmark has/had a number of F16 jets that were due to be scrapped and /or replaced by F35's starting in 2024... looks like some of them might find a new home. Maybe it's related?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/denmark-open-delivering-f-16-fighter-jets-ukraine-minister-2023-02-24/

 

[Malcador]

https://twitter.com/Lastkombo/status/1658282105472729088?s=20

Lotta dakka

[Gorth]

3 hours ago, Gorth said:

I know Denmark has/had a number of F16 jets that were due to be scrapped and /or replaced by F35's starting in 2024... looks like some of them might find a new home. Maybe it's related?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/denmark-open-delivering-f-16-fighter-jets-ukraine-minister-2023-02-24/

 

The F16 were good planes (I'm old enough to remember a lot of controversy around their acquisition). No noticeable accidents and they've seen a bit of actions too, participating in Ex-Yugoslavia, Libya and Iraq (sitting it out in Afghanistan iirc, that mostly infantry and AFV combat)

The Danish government also decided to send  100 slightly older Leopard 1 (probably still a lot better than the Russian Sardine Cans) as well as a handful Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Denmark is known for it's effective recycling policies. Suddenly raising the retirement age for military hardware

 

Edit: Luckily the Nordic countries have decided on a "unified command" when it comes to their airforces (not at least because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine), so the Swedish airforce can cover Danish airspace because the Danish airforce always seems to be eager to fight everywhere else but in the Danish airspace...

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/03/24/nordic-countries-move-toward-linking-their-air-forces-250-planes/

 

[xzar_monty]

On 5/12/2023 at 12:52 AM, kanisatha said:

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-belarus-strategy-document-230035184.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAxet4LIxuvF8daGVL25xrQOh2eFTNvz2adU9oXvrFkPomK_-H4MMvPP0Ia82xWTmOFWNR3n0Yl3GS7cI2XKBLTvhxbj5C62vPfyDbsxUpBexBZL0SegWMfIacowyisjecDImBjaQUNqTERlclGar_-KSs5dF61L2xl83sq-pEJq

I have no doubt that plans like this may well exist. My point was that whether they are realizable is a completely different question. So my response to your "Belarus has no future, it will be assimilated into Russia by the end of the decade" remains as stated: "Could be, but I wouldn't make any predictions that go that far". Russia itself may well splinter into pieces well before then. And again: it may indeed be that Belarus will be a part of Russia by 2030.

(Sorry for the delay, was spending some time at the archipelago. Not Deadfire.)

 

As for Zelenskyi possibly planning to conquer some Russian ground: makes me think of some Finns at various points between 1941 and 1944... Once you get going, it can be hard to stop.

[Mamoulian War]

Last night, UA intercepted all missiles launched by Russia. Including 6 Kinzhals

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/16/7402373/