Ukraine Conflict - Continues

[BruceVC]

3 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

There is a story concerning two warring Greek powers, probably Athens and Sparta. The Athenians send a messenger to the Spartans to say: "If we proceed to attack your city, it will be razed to the ground." The Spartans send a messenger back to say: "If."

Sure and I think we all in agreement that this war will continue  while Putin is president because his political future and survival is inextricably connected to the war now

But the reality can change if for whatever reason he is no longer president 

[kanisatha]

21 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

In terms of developments inside Russia, I'd wager there's an awful lot of fury within the scientific community. I know something about the academic disciplines of history, geology[*], forestry and archaeology, and it seems to me that Russia is almost completely isolated from much of the West, in terms of co-operation and such, and obviously this is terrible news for the country in that sense. Actually, I'd love to hear what kind of perspective @kanisatha has on this side of things.

It has also been reported that many of the approximately 750 000 people who have now fled Russia are particularly well-educated, well-connected and so on, so they represent a disproportionately big loss for Russia in terms of human potential, etc. There is obviously a kind of a precedent for this, because during and after the communist revolution, many of the best-educated and most intelligent Russians were nicely slaughtered by ill-mannered and poorly educated thugs. What a lot of good that did for the Soviet system and its design, as I'm sure we all know.

It does appear though, that all the rage and intellectual opposition mustered by the Russian scientific community would amount to absolutely nothing, even it were openly expressed.

 

[*] It's a bit worrying if everything concerning the developments in the Siberian permafrost remains outside international co-operation.

I read several articles on Russia's brain-drain earlier in the war, but I don't see those stories anymore. But the emigration data do suggest the most well-educated young people are the ones who've fled the country. As for Russia's academic community, they did raise their voices against the war early on but then several of them were made examples of by Putin and that silenced them. Don't know about other Western countries, but academic/scientific cooperation between Russia and the US is practically zero right now. But this is mainly due to voluntary shunning of the Russian side by US academia which is overwhelmingly supportive of Ukraine. There is no organized attempt to shun Russians, and certainly the US govt has not enacted any such measures. Russian students in US universities were very commonplace when I was in engineering grad school, but they're not at all prevalent in arts/humanities/social sciences fields where I am now. So I can't tell if there's been a dropoff, though I would wager they don't get to come here now, at least through official channels.

[Malcador]

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-zelenskyy-russia-putin-war-78f55fbf4fb7e57711c2fadaf914fd45

Wonder which air defense systems they had to keep changing - guessing the HAWK from Spain (just due to age of system).   Wants 20 Patriot batteries, too, hah.

[Mamoulian War]

On 3/28/2023 at 4:36 PM, xzar_monty said:

Do we have any way of knowing what kind of percentages these losses represent, particularly when it comes to senior officers and generals?

It is really reaaly hard to say, as from what I have noticed, that there are in the list also people, who have been promoted to higher rank, after their previous commander was killed, and they were killed just few days after that promotion.

[Mamoulian War]

Also it is said, that Putin pissed off Xi with the announcement of supplying of nuclear arsenal to Belarus, as they both signed a document about nuclear “restraint/deescalation” during his visit. Xi learned what Putin’s word means first hand

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-27/putin-s-belarus-nuclear-move-puts-him-at-odds-with-china-pledge#xj4y7vzkg

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-humiliated-china-xi-jingping-nuclear-announcement-snub-belarus-russia-2023-3?op=1

[Chilloutman]

Most interesting part is China getting hold on the Central Asia countries where Russia is now loosing its grasp. I feel like all those 'friends' Putin believe in are slowly turning away and China is his last life line and he know it and Xi know it. And Xi is using it very well, once Russia usefulness fades away they will drop them like a hot mess they are

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Also it is said, that Putin pissed off Xi with the announcement of supplying of nuclear arsenal to Belarus, as they both signed a document about nuclear “restraint/deescalation” during his visit. Xi learned what Putin’s word means first hand

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-27/putin-s-belarus-nuclear-move-puts-him-at-odds-with-china-pledge#xj4y7vzkg

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-humiliated-china-xi-jingping-nuclear-announcement-snub-belarus-russia-2023-3?op=1

I heard an interesting opinion that prolonging the war in Ukraine is in the interests of China because then the  West wont be focused on Chinas global aspirations like Taiwan and the South China Sea

Im not sure if it true but its interesting?

 

 

[BruceVC]

http://www.cbr.ru/press/event/?id=14668

https://vk.com/wall-45439398_22717?lang=en

I cant access the first link but the second link is the same information. The Ruskie Central Bank for 2022  recorded losses of 720 billion rubles compared to previous year of 26 billion  !!!

No wonder they started classifying economic data for the country. Thank goodness Western sanctions arent working....oh wait 

 

 

[BruceVC]

I wonder if this is true, @Gfted1 you sneaky Americans and your pesky microchips in vaccines 

 

[Zoraptor]

9 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

There is a story concerning two warring Greek powers, probably Athens and Sparta. The Athenians send a messenger to the Spartans to say: "If we proceed to attack your city, it will be razed to the ground." The Spartans send a messenger back to say: "If."

That's Macedon and Sparta.

Story didn't end particularly well for Sparta either, though that bit tends to get left out (-->--> yet another alliance with Greece's perpetual enemy Persia, this time against the Macedon of Alexander the Great though...)

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-zelenskyy-russia-putin-war-78f55fbf4fb7e57711c2fadaf914fd45

Wonder which air defense systems they had to keep changing - guessing the HAWK from Spain (just due to age of system).   Wants 20 Patriot batteries, too, hah.

Hawk is old, but pretty reliable. Its problem would be slightly different; that it's demonstrably worse than the old soviet systems Ukraine already has at pretty much anything and everything so doesn't have much of a use case until their old systems are depleted- which I guess could be labelled as a reliability issue, but is really a utility issue. If he isn't gilding the lily for leverage I'd suspect he's referring to a newer system that never got tested properly before seeing action. No speculate on which though.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

I heard an interesting opinion that prolonging the war in Ukraine is in the interests of China because then the  West wont be focused on Chinas global aspirations like Taiwan and the South China Sea

Im not sure if it true but its interesting?

 

 

My guess is as reliable as yours. Although even if by some miracle US gets to busy with UA/Russia mettle, there is still Japan, S. Korea and Australia to hold them in check. For China, this war has been most interesting at the start, just to observe the western reaction how they handle it. Now, I think even Xi knows, that if he would want some new lands, he should go rather for the historical Manchuria than for the Taiwan. He would probably get it without a fight, if he would decide to march in there tonight, as most of the Russian army is around Ukraine

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

That's Macedon and Sparta.

Story didn't end particularly well for Sparta either, though that bit tends to get left out (-->--> yet another alliance with Greece's perpetual enemy Persia, this time against the Macedon of Alexander the Great though...)

Hawk is old, but pretty reliable. Its problem would be slightly different; that it's demonstrably worse than the old soviet systems Ukraine already has at pretty much anything and everything so doesn't have much of a use case until their old systems are depleted- which I guess could be labelled as a reliability issue, but is really a utility issue. If he isn't gilding the lily for leverage I'd suspect he's referring to a newer system that never got tested properly before seeing action. No speculate on which though.

Was just thinking of Spanish issues with their Leopards - they were in a rough way, I believe.  But, yeah, it being a newer system is probably more likely. 

[Gorth]

4 hours ago, BruceVC said:

 The Ruskie Central Bank for 2022  recorded losses of 720 billion rubles compared to previous year of 26 billion  !!!

So... $47 instead $2? /shrug

[Gorth]

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

My guess is as reliable as yours. Although even if by some miracle US gets to busy with UA/Russia mettle, there is still Japan, S. Korea and Australia to hold them in check. For China, this war has been most interesting at the start, just to observe the western reaction how they handle it. Now, I think even Xi knows, that if he would want some new lands, he should go rather for the historical Manchuria than for the Taiwan. He would probably get it without a fight, if he would decide to march in there tonight, as most of the Russian army is around Ukraine

Putin has two cards up his sleeve, which he hasn't played yet. Large stock piles of chemical and nuclear weapons. The moment any war moves on to the Russian side of the border, I do not doubt he'll use them at this point. If the last 12 months showed anything, it's that he doesn't care about casualties, regardless of nationality.

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

My guess is as reliable as yours. Although even if by some miracle US gets to busy with UA/Russia mettle, there is still Japan, S. Korea and Australia to hold them in check. For China, this war has been most interesting at the start, just to observe the western reaction how they handle it. Now, I think even Xi knows, that if he would want some new lands, he should go rather for the historical Manchuria than for the Taiwan. He would probably get it without a fight, if he would decide to march in there tonight, as most of the Russian army is around Ukraine

I have followed several informed views about this topic and what China experts were saying is exactly what you posting in the sense Xi was hoping for a quick Russian victory and then a lackluster and disunited Western response

But the reality has been very different. Russia has failed to achieve a quick or significant military victory and the invasion has united the West in unprecedented ways 

So Xi is re-strategizing the entire China approach to Taiwan and the most effective way to achieve Chinas geopolitical aspirations

But they were hoping for a quick and decisive  Russian military victory in Ukraine 

 

Edited March 30, 2023 by BruceVC

[xzar_monty]

12 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

That's Macedon and Sparta.

Very good, thanks. Annoying to get one of them wrong.

Anyway, it's one of my favorite military anecdotes, along with 1) the one where a general or someone says, "Don't worry, they can't hit anybody from that dist--" and is thereupon shot dead, and 2) the arriving naval captain who was killed by the cannons fired from the harbor to salute him.

[ShadySands]

19 hours ago, BruceVC said:

I heard an interesting opinion that prolonging the war in Ukraine is in the interests of China because then the  West wont be focused on Chinas global aspirations like Taiwan and the South China Sea

Im not sure if it true but its interesting?

 

 

It would make sense. Not only because of our divided attention but because of what Chillout mentioned, as countries turn away from Russia, China is there. And Russia is becoming more dependent on them as well.

I know my favorite new tease of my Russian in-laws is to call them Western China or China's newest province. Who would have guessed that people with dreams of an empire hate the idea of being someone else's subjects?

Edited March 30, 2023 by ShadySands

[Malcador]

Not too sure Japan, Australia and ROK will be enough to hold back China. But not as if the US is really tied down right now.  Yet another data point of ammo expenditures being a problem when you're not fighting insurgents (although I guess sometimes even then - Israel had issues in 2006, if I recall)

[Malcador]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/30/europe/turkey-vote-finland-nato-membership-intl/index.html

Still won't be enough to save us from 10,000 years of darkness if Ukraine falls.

[Gorth]

50 minutes ago, Malcador said:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/30/europe/turkey-vote-finland-nato-membership-intl/index.html

Still won't be enough to save us from 10,000 years of darkness if Ukraine falls.

Unlike The Winter War, Finland is more likely to get more than just German help this time, if something censored hits the fan.

[Mamoulian War]

A big leak about cyber warfare from russian secret service whistleblower angry about war in Ukraine codename “Vulkan Files”.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/mar/30/vulkan-files-leak-reveals-putins-global-and-domestic-cyberwarfare-tactics

[pmp10]

After XI's visit in Russia the EU is hoping for Chinese help in winding-down the war.
It starts with mixed messages as VDL warns about consequences of Chinese 'decisions'.
In a few days she and Macron will travel to Beijing, where I bet she will play the bad cop.

Along with visits from Sanchez and Borrell this is quite the effort to sway (or in the very least probe) the Chinese stance. 
I wonder if the visit in Moscow scared them or gave them hope.

[Gorth]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65146557

 

Irony much? I'm sure the UN security council will now get this special military operation in Ukraine sorted out in no time, to everybody's satisfaction... or not.

 

[Malcador]

48 minutes ago, Gorth said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65146557

 

Irony much? I'm sure the UN security council will now get this special military operation in Ukraine sorted out in no time, to everybody's satisfaction... or not.

 

Funny headline, I forget Ukraine is master of us all.  I don't know why there's such a fuss over it, is a monthly rotation and I don't think they get any fancy powers or such and even if they did, the vetoes exist

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Funny headline, I forget Ukraine is master of us all.  I don't know why there's such a fuss over it, is a monthly rotation and I don't think they get any fancy powers or such and even if they did, the vetoes exist

"I don't know why there's such a fuss over it " 

Sometimes you really  make me laugh, good one  There is no way to stop Russia legally getting the rotational chair because its  by  design and its only for 1 month as you said 

 But its a massive deal because of the optics and the reality. Russia invaded a sovereign country and the region has become destabilized apart from the long list of war crimes. And there President is facing war crimes. The UNSC function is about  ensuring international peace and security. 

So its about the optics, its a massive contradiction to the values of the UNSC but its only for a month